June 27

Four Wins At Gulfstream!

Despite the pouring down rain early, a slow start where I dug myself a pretty good hole to climb out of and missing on three of four graded stakes at Santa Anita I had a very good day to close out the month of June.  The forecast for the weekend was for rain, and it did rain on Friday, so Keith asked if I thought that Gulfstream would stay on the turf for Saturday.  I told him that unlike the old Calder management, Gulfstream would stay on the grass unless it poured down rain early in the day and continued to rain.  So I handicapped the card for Saturday assuming we would be on the inner course.  My first selection of the weekend came on Friday night in Iowa where at Prairie Meadows they were hosting their Iowa Festival of Racing.  In the Iowa Sprint I really wanted to bet Delaunay, but my reluctance was that in 2013 - when I'd bet him - he was second at 1/5; then in 2014 - when I'd bet him - he was second again at short odds.  He shipped to this midwestern track a month ago and had been run down on the wire, second again, in the prep for tonight.  But I just had this feeling that the connections would not have returned here if they didn't think that he finally would win.  When I watched the DRF video analysis the one thing I took away from it, even though neither guy took Delaunay, was that tonight there would be NO speed to compromise his front-running trip.  Still I was unsure and ultimately figured to pass the race.  However as we were watching "Game of Thrones" on HBO-Go and took a break between episodes I checked the races and it was twenty minutes to post for the Iowa Sprint and Delaunay was 1/5 in the early wagering.  I made the bet and doubled down on him.  After everyone headed to bed I watched the replay.  Delaunay broke sharply, went right to the front and never had any pressure what so ever.  When the field began to make their serious bid on the turn he had plenty left and ran away for the win.  He'd left the gate at a more than fair 4/5 price and I had my first win of the weekend and nearly $20 in winnings.  Saturday afternoon Keith and I headed out and there was intermittent sprinkles on the drive down to Hallandale Beach.  But as we approached the track itself, the closer we got the darker the skies and by the time we hit US 1 it was pouring down rain.  Keith made the command decision that we should use valet - offered to pay - and that way we could stay dry, well worth it.  It marked the very first time in all my trips to Gulfstream that I'd used their valet service.  I didn't even know how to get there by car even though I'd walked by it every time I entered the facility!  Had to follow the signs like a regular tourist :)  The first race on my eight-page selection document - I had tried to give three alternatives to every race from the eight tracks and had pasted in the DRF analyst comments for that specific race as well - came from Monmouth Park where the weather was sunny and the races were on the turf.  I liked Remarkable Tale in a Maiden Special event for 2yo colts.  My only reluctance was that trainer Kelly Breen, usually one of the leading trainers, was only 3-for-35 with first time runners.  Remarkable Tale was sent off at a short 3/5 price.  After breaking slowly he ranged up three-wide to challenge for the lead at the top of the stretch, but could not get by - second.  Next up was the opener at Parx.  Harbor Breeze had won three races since May, more than any other entrant showed in their entire pp resume, but they "didn't count" for the conditions of the race because they were for a smaller price tag.  He was the 8/5 second choice and I thought he'd go wire to wire.  He broke on top and was walking through early fractions of :25.2 and :49.4 - I'm home free I thought.  But at the top of the lane when asked to kick for home he ran evenly and was caught late by a 6/1 upset choice.  The third race on my page was supposed to be the opener from Gulfstream, slated as a claiming event going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  But soon after we got our seats in the Silks Simulcast center it was announced that Race 1 was off the turf.  I asked Keith to look at his form regarding my pick, Fever Las Vegas.  I had gone back through the Gulfstream selections before we left the house and thought I'd made changes regarding a possible move to dirt, but I had no notations here.  Fever Las Vegas had run his races on the turf, but he was being solidly bet.  Hmmmm.  Decided to stick with the minimum planned bet.  I took a spot on the rail just in front of the finish line and as they turned for home he was on the rail behind three runners dueling for the lead.  At the furlong marker he swung off the rail four wide and was surging as they ran past me - PHOTO FINISH!  But as I walked in I was pretty sure Fever Las Vegas had had the momentum and got there in time.  Confirmed by the slo-mo replay and I had my first winner of the day!  

As the horses had been loading into the gate at Gulfstream the runners were lining up for the opener north of the border at Woodbine.  My pick in this maiden claiming event going seven furlongs was Indiscreet Cat, a first-time starter for Sam DiPasquale.  And it was because of the barn that I made this selection.  According to Jim Mazur's "Woodbine Handicapper" Mr. DiPasquale had sent 34 maiden claimers to the gate over the past two years and had won with 50% of them!  OH MY!  Obviously qualifies as a Woodbine 40% Club play!  The jockey today was Luis Garcia, and in forty-eight mounts for DiPasquale over the last two seasons, Garcia had finished first or second in 24 of them!  This just seemed so obvious, but it was a "hidden angle" which most handicappers would not see without this inside information source.  I was hopeful of getting a fair price on Indiscreet Cat because the DRF analysis did not list him in the top three.  As the Gulfstream race was starting I was watching on my phone as Indiscreet Cat sat on the rail behind the leaders through the turn.  When heads turned for home Garcia swung him into the clear and hit the "GO" button.  The response was immediate and Indiscreet Cat accelerated easily past the leader to win going away.  The best part was he had indeed been a fair price at 5/2.  And when the $7 mutual was posted I determined I'd be cashing for over $50 because of my TRIPLE investment!  As I walked in Keith congratulated me heartily on the pick!  Two in a row and I'm thinking I might be having one of those days.  Oh but the racing game can be so humbling, so quickly.  At Monmouth Jimmy Connors was the 3/5 odds-on choice.  Keith asked why I'd picked this guy when he had the look of a quitter.  I pointed out that even one of his poor races towered over this lowly group - certainly with the plunge in class he'd hold on to win.  Led easily into the stretch, but coughed up the lead inside the sixteenth pole, second.  Then at Parx I again had the favorite, Gindini, who was a prohibitive 2/5.  They hit the far turn and the jockey was holding him back behind a big price leader just to the outside.  He let him go and immediately he set sail for the wire, clear by daylight into the stretch.  Nearing the wire he too was caught by a price closer.  Second, again.  So as I turned the page I had those two nice wins, but had four runner-up finishes to go with them.  My next bet wasn't until the third at Parx so I made my initial vvideo.  Then came back to watch Rock Me Again - a rare Todd Pletcher trainee at Parx - get shuffled back at the top of the lane at even money, third.  At Belmont, Dave Liftin's BET of the DAY - Bet The Power - rallied, second at even money.  And then I went to the rail to watch Novak break slowly and trail from start to finish at odds of 3/1 - sixth.  Finally, at Monmouth Ganssett Bay was 8/5, and rallied.....too late, third at 8/5.  This is NOT good I'm thinking.  After the two nice scores I had suffered five added money investment losses.  I actually had the thought run through my mind that I might have to borrow money from Keith if this continued!  

Oh ye of little faith......the third at Belmont was a turf sprint going six furlongs for claimers.  The field looked pretty evenly matched, but the first clue for me was that I did NOT like the top two favorites who were both stepping off wins at $25K to race at this $50K level today.  My choice was Persnickity on the rail for Javier Castellano.  He was dropping out of allowance company today and you had to go back a full year to find a race where he'd run for a tag.....and there it was.  A year ago he raced for a $40K tag at this exact distance over this turf course AND WON!  And then raced at this distance on the grass for today's $50K price tag and was second by a neck - nothing but allowance events since.  As the field turned for home there were three dueling on the lead and Castellano had Persnickity moving off the rail.  Two separated themselves as the other dropped back on the rail so Persnickity slid outside.  They were inside the 16th pole and two guys to my right were screaming for the #4.....I waiting and just as Castellano made his last surge near the wire I boomed out - "GO JAVIER!" as my pick won.  Whoooo hooooo.  

Best part of the story - Persnickity had gone off at 7/2 and paid $9.20 - I was going to collect over $45!  The 4th at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance and I picked Sarlef who held a recency edge over his rivals.  After I'd made him my choice I noted he was Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "best" of the day.  He was a generous 3/1 when they left the gate but was never involved, 6th.  My next choice had the potential to be the "daymaker" for me.  It was the fourth from Woodbine, a claiming event going seven furlongs.  I was all over Mavis Road who was sent out by trainer Mark Fournier.  Over the last two seasons when Fourier sent out a runner in a claiming event below $40K - like this - making a distance move - like Mavis Road was - and had jockey Diego Garcia on board - like today - he'd scored at a remarkable 55% rate!  And one of those was WITH Mavis Road at 20/1 last year.  I was a bit edgy that my second choice, Miss Victoria was Jim Bannon's BET of the Day and he's usually right on with those.  But, I also saw this as the chance to get a good price on a top pick.  Mavis Road was a big 3/1 and Miss Victoria was odds on as they hit the far turn.  Mavis Road surged to the lead and then here came Miss Victoria.  They battled for about a 16th of a mile, but Miss Victoria was in too good of form as she drew clear late for her third win in a row.  At Monmouth Brother Mark was a juicy 5/1 but got the worst ride of the day to be a non-threatening fourth.  I got back into the winner's circle with my first score at Arlington when Saturdayatbernies lived up to her even-money odds.  She was never really threatened and showed her seven win resume was a statement to her consistency against this group of inconsistent cheap "beaten" claimers.  

At Belmont Todd Pletcher's Gangster was a solid 2/1 in a Maiden Special making his debut.  He was between runners with a chance as they hit the stretch, but ran on evenly to the wire to be fourth.  At Monmouth in a 5 1/2 furlong claiming event I thought Hop Skip And Away looked on paper like oh-so-many Paco Lopez winners from last summer.  He'd sit off the pace to the far turn, circle up without ever moving a muscle and look around for competition as he rode his mount out to the wire as much the best.  Well, I was MOSTLY right as Hop Skip And Away did sit off the pace, and did circle up around horses into the stretch.  But the leader had separated himself from the field by now.  I really wasn't worried, but it took nearly the length of the stretch for Lopez to collar the leader before edging clear late - but take note, he never really asked for his horse to really run :)  In what had become a nice theme to the day, Hop Skip And Away paid a very sweet $6.40 and I collected well over $30!  My pick in the 5th at Belmont scratched so it was out to the rail to watch my Gulfstream "BEST BET" run.  This is significant because not only was it a maiden race, but it was a maiden two-year-old event!  High End Queen was being sent out by trainer Herman Wilensky who was winning at 31% overall and 40% with his juveniles.  High End Queen had been a best-of-the-rest second as the favorite in her debut and was over SEVEN lengths clear of the show filly.  My only fear was Stanley Gold's Platinum Band.  Their two-year-olds had been red-hot, as they always are and jockey Eddie Castro was 2-for-2 this summer for them.  But as I headed out High End Queen was the 4/5 favorite with Platinum Band sitting at 2/1.  But as they circled around the back of the gate a lot of late money came pouring in on Platinum Band.  But the time the field burst from the gate High End Queen was a fat 2/1 price.  She went right to the front and you could tell from the very start that the rider KNEW he was sitting on a ton of horse.  She was confidently handled into the lane and then drew off with ease as MUCH the best.  OH YEAH!

The $6.00 payoff meant I'd be cashing for a sweet $60.00!  I came inside just as the Woodbine 6th was finishing and I could tell on the monitor that the horse edging clear nearing the wire was my pick, #2 Keeplaffinleslie.  She'd been 4/5 when I went outside to watch the Gulfstream race.  As I sat down Keith said, "...two nice price wins in a row, well done!...."  I looked at my monitor and Keeplaffinleslie had floated up to 5/2!  The $7.60 payoff and my triple investment would result in a payout of nearly $60!  At Parx, Please Explain was second at even money in a three-horse field due to the rain forcing it to the main track.  But within ten minutes at Belmont Victory Is Sweet dueled in hand to the stretch and drew off as MUCH the best, justifying her 3/5 odds, and I was cashing on another triple investment.  The eighth at Monmouth was coming up and Sweet On Smokey was being pounded down to 3/5 favoritism.  I did NOT like her.  My pick was Lucky Bella with Paco Lopez.  I had planned to triple invest on her but the odds made me wary so I backed down to a double investment.  Should have gone for the jugular.......the two swung into the stretch together, but Lopez was sitting on a much better horse and Lucky Bella easily ran away.  The huge $12.40 payoff meant I would be cashing for over $60 but it could have been for over ninety dollars.  Oh well, I was all smiles when I went to the window and handed my favorite clerk my four most recent tickets.  She punched them in and the total was over $200 in winnings!  I looked up at the monitor and saw that Santa Anita' second was close to post time.  A glance down at my sheet and I could see that my pick was the #7.  Scanning further down my next race was at Woodbine, but my pick was scratched; so the following was the 9th at Gulfstream where I liked #3 Racetrack Romance.  I made the two bets and returned to my seat.  Keith and I watched Architop run an even fourth at Santa Anita and then I headed out to the rail to watch the Gulfstream race.  The 9th was scheduled for a mile on the turf but all races were off the turf.  But this was good for me because I'd planned on only betting #3 Racetrack Romance if it came OFF THE TURF.  He was 4/1 in the program, but those were turf odds, so in the early betting I was not surprised he was 5/1.  As I walked to the rail he was being bet down to 5/2 - which again, did not surprise me because I was certain that most handicappers had seen what I did......Racetrack Romance is 3/2-1-0 on the off tracks!  As the field broke from the gate I could see #3 fighting for the lead with #1, but the track announcer was calling that "All Over It" was in front.  Well, maybe the #1 has a head in front I thought.  But by the time they hit the far turn I - #3 Racetrack Romance - was in front by daylight and yet the call continued to be "All Over It leads......"  What is he thinking about?  I glanced at my sheet - no, I'm right - number 3, Racetrack Romance in the 9th race scheduled to go off at......oh no - at 5:00 pm.  It's only about 4:30 pm!  I've bet the wrong race and the wrong horse!  I look up and they are heading into the stretch - #3, who truly IS All Over It, is about a pole in front and under a confident hand ride.  WHOOOO HOOOO, he walked with it!  I go inside to tell Keith and he laughs - he did the same thing last week :)  Great track story.  And to make for a perfect ending to the tale, my next bet wasn't until the 9th at Gulfstream and Racetrack Romance DID win handily!  Ho ho ho.

We watched one more live race, the featured Grade 3 Eatontown on the turf from Monmouth.  I didn't like the favorite and bet on Stellar Path who was 7/2 in the program.  But with five minutes to post he was 15/1!  I reduced my bet and hoped I wasn't missing out on a big score.  I was right that the favorite didn't win, and I was glad to have reduced my play.  Stellar Path was a solid third (at final odds of 6/1).  I made my bets for the Santa Anita late races and planned to make the few Churchill Downs late bets through Twin Spires.

In Santa Anita's 6th, the Grade 3 Senorita, Curlin's Fox was the 4/5 favorite and was being touted as a "single" in the Pick-6.  Faded badly to ninth.  In the Grade 1 Triple Bend I was looking to beat Masochistic who won his first graded stakes in the prep for this, the Grade 2 Kona Gold.  But not only were most of the participants the same, but the way the race looked to play out, especially with the post position draws, it looked to be a mirror image of that event with Masochistic sitting just off the speed of San Onofre to the top of the stretch, taking over and finishing comfortably in front of the late running Sahara Sky.  Sure enough, San Onofre set the pace to the turn.....Masochistic glided by under a confident hand ride and Sahara Sky ran on belatedly.  I felt so fortunate that the post-time odds were better than even money and I was going to cash for over $30 next weekend when I return to Gulfstream for the 4th of July program.  

In the 8th at Santa Anita Birdlover set an easy pace at 3/1 in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine going a mile on the turf, only to stop badly at the top of the lane and fade to 8th.  Finally in the featured Grade 1 Gold Cup - a "Win and You're In Breeders' Cup" race - Catch A Flight looked like a mortal lock.  He was 8/5 as he stalked the leader into the lane, took a brief lead, but then was outfinished.  I was at least right that the overrated Moreno was a non factor.  The Churchill Downs After Dark racing program didn't start until the fourth due to a scratch of my first pick.  In that 7 furlong spring Suwanee's Song was way out of it and finished 8th; my horse scratched from the 5th;  in the 6th it was the Grade 3 Bashford Manor for two-year-olds.  We just got our first Triple Crown winner less than a month ago and here we are already getting an early sneak peak at the 2016 Derby contenders!  I liked He's Comin' In Hot in spite of the fact that he was the favorite.  He was the only one in the field with a win over the Louisville track, he was the speed of the race and he had the rail.  Right to the front, was challenged turning for home but he found another gear and drew off as my thirteenth win of the day!  

In the filly version of this race, the Debutante my pick Adhara was the even money favorite.  But she was in tight quarters into the turn, tried to squeeze up the rail, got through but was a narrowly beaten second.  The eighth was the Grade 2 Firecracker and Sky Flight stalked the leaders at 8/5 into the lane, made a bid for the lead but was outfinished by one of my favorite horses - on dirt - Departing who won at better than 4/1....I was third.  And finally in the last race of the day Good Lord had won the Kelly's Landing for me last year as the 5/2 second choice going wire to wire.  But tonight he was 15/1 in the program.  I thought this was WAY out of line and he looked to be the speed and had the rail.  He went right to the front and was all alone turning for home at a H-U-G-E 18/1 price.  He was nailed late, but he was a solid third.  Great bet, no cash.  So for the day I finished up 13-for-36, that's nearly 40% and another fourteen of my picks ran second or third.  I made a profit of over $65 on the day.  So for the first half of the summer my numbers are:

I'm pretty happy with where I stand as we get ready to take off for Europe next weekend.  I'll play the 4th of July card - some BIG races at Belmont - and I'll make some bets for the Gulfstream Summit of Speed card on Sunday before we board the plane.  When we return I'll begin daily handicapping at Woodbine in my "Woodbine Handicapping Project" that will take me through Saratoga - I'll be there in mid-August - Del Mar, and the fall championship season leading up the the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in October; I'll be there too1

July 27 Video Recap

June 20

Gulfstream Saturday

The racing week got started on Thursday, and by accident really.  When I opened the paper on Wednesday morning and looked at the entries for Gulfstream - they typically run on Wednesday - I saw that the sixth race had Alaco Castle listed as the 6/5 favorite and was the paper's "best" of the day.  I went to Gulfstream's web page to see what their handicapper thought of him and found it odd that they had no selections for Wednesday, but had picks for Thursday.  I then checked on twinspires.com and saw that Gulfstream was NOT running on Wednesday.  Interesting.....so on Thursday I checked the entries and there was Alaco Castle running in the sixth.  I read the picks from the web page and everyone seemed to agree he was the one to beat.  I couldn't remember exactly when I'd bet him during the Championship Meet, but I knew he was a good runner.  So I made him a prime-time investment.  That evening I watched the replays and the crowd had bet him down to 1/2 favoritism.  He broke sharply, tracked the pace three wide into the turn and then ran away without ever being asked for his best.  Cashed for $30 and I had my first winner of the weekend.  Earlier in the day Kim had left for the west coast of Florida to spend three days with her parents while I stayed home here with Keith.  He has been working on our second bathroom and he wanted to head down to the Villages at Gulfstream for an organizer at the Container Store there.  I suggested we head down around 4 pm to watch a race or two, have dinner, and then walk over to the store.  I checked out who was running around that time and because of a "stable alert" email I discovered that one of my favorite runners, Regally Ready, was running at 4:53 at Indiana Grande.  Now this guy was a former Breeders' Cup champion, but has revived his career as a mile runner.  He's won several stakes for me, and even scored in an off-the-turf stakes at Mountaineer last year.  That was important because there has been all kinds of rain in the midwest so I'd be supporting him on either surface.  We got out there about 4:40 and sure enough they were off the turf, and Regally Ready was the 3/5 favorite.  Somehow the crowd let him float up to 4/5 and he, like Alaco Castle on Thursday, was the easiest of winners.  I only had a double investment on him, but still I was cashing again....2-for-2 and the weekend's races had not even started.  I looked at Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day and it was coming up at Belmont with Liam's Map, a very talented horse.  But he was in a competitive spot and coming off a layoff.  Without the pp's I was reluctant.  And when he was 2/5 I passed.  We watched the race as we had dinner at the Yard House and he too walked with it.  Still, I was content that I would have risked too much money to make very little.  So the weekend's racing started with me off to a 2-for-2 beginning!

Saturday started with the opener at Churchill.  They too were off the turf and I had to make some adjustments to my handicapping selections from Louisville, but not in the opener.  I liked Prosecution who looked like the controlling speed in a short field.  With just a few minutes to post time Keith remarked how it was stealing for him to be 5/2 in this spot.  But he took late money and was the 8/5 favorite as the gates opened.  Still, that was a generous price considering the angles I thought he had:  (1) he appeared to be the lone speed; (2) the barn was scoring at a 21% rate with turf-to-dirt runners; and (3) jockey John Court was winning at a 44% clip for this outfit.  He went right to the front and never looked back.  He paid $5.20 and I was collecting $26 to start the day.  Within minutes it was time for me to head out to the rail to watch the opener from Gulfstream.  It was a claiming sprint on the turf and my choice was All About Diva.  Last time out she was the 2/1 favorite dropping to this level for the first time and she'd gone WAY too fast early for an apprentice rider and tired late.  Today she was getting the services of veteran Edgar Zayas who I thought would ration her speed more wisely.  Somehow the DRF linemaker had her at 12/1 - go figure.  I thought I might get a fair price when the program put her at 9/2.  At post time she was a generous 2/1.  Right to the front, clear by daylight and sailed past me as I stood on the rail to score!  I'm 2-for-2 - whoooo hooooo!  

I went back inside to our seats in the "Silks Simulcast" area and Keith asked me just how many in a row was I going to win?  I smiled and said I was having a pretty good summer.  Should have known better because it was another hour before I'd cash again.  The next three were never even in the race - Moneyinyour Pocket at Monmouth stumbled out of the gate and trailed throughout; Conquest Kronos was in mid-pack at the start and stayed fifth all the way to the wire at Woodbine; and at Delaware Park Mount Coronet was bet down from 12/1 to 8/5 but was fourth all the way around the track.  Finally at Belmont I had the first of what have made a big difference in the bottom line for the day when I doubled the bet on Chad Brown's Style Drift in a Maiden Special turf route.  He stalked to pace to the stretch, split horses and forged to the lead in deep stretch before being nailed in the final strides.  I looked at who it was that won and it was the "other horse" I'd listed in my analysis who was also trained by Chad Brown and ironically was ridden by the brother of the jockey on my pick.  Style Drift was 5/1, and that $60 winning ticket would have been nice.  Less than ten minutes later it was time for my second bet at Gulfstream.  This was the first of two listed stakes races on the card, the Barely Even Handicap.  My pick was Little Alexis.  Last year as a three-year-old she'd been running against Untapable in the Grade 1, $1 Million Cotillion at Parx and then ran in the Breeders' Cup.  Her connections had said at the beginning of 2015 that their goal was to get her back to the World Championships.  But in her first three starts of the year she'd run second twice and off the board.  When I saw her in the entries I was at first ready to toss her and then I thought today would be the day she'd win, just because everyone WOULD jump off.  The fact she had been sprinting and was trying a one-turn mile today worked in her favor and I did NOT like the favorite.  She was allowed to go off at a nice 2/1 price as the gates opened.  She stalked the 6/5 favorite into the turn and then the two of them went at it the length of the stretch with Little Alex getting her head in front right on the wire!  After having made her an added investment in all three of her other starts this year I'd only bet the minimum today, but hey, it was a winner!  

Two of my next three picks ran second - Bear's Song at 7/5 in a Thistledowns claiming sprint and Nominative at 8/5 in an off-the-turf Churchill route.  In between Frolicking Gal was a well-beaten 8th at Monmouth.  And so I turned the page of my selection sheet with only three wins, but that quickly changed!  The third at Delaware was a maiden claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs.  The obvious choice was Fashionable Frolic who had two powerful angles in her favor.  First she was dropping out of a $40K turf sprint into this $15K dirt sprint, but more importantly the trainer - MacLean Robertson - was winning at a huge 41% overall (and 21% with turf-to-dirt runners).  As the field moved into the far turn the leader was clear by some five or six lengths, but then Fashionable Frolic's rider asked her for run and she gobbled up ground with every stride.  She inhaled the leader at the furlong marker in mid-stretch and drew off convincingly at 4/5 odds.  I had tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30.  Less than five minutes later on the Belmont channel I watched as former stakes winner Charming Kitten surged to the front off the turn on the inner course and scored at 6/5.  Again it was a triple-investment play which the math shows a $30+ score!  I missed in the fourth at Gulfstream where I bet Get A Room in the first live 2yo bet of the year.  He was clear in mid-stretch as the 8/5 favorite, but was run down in the final fifty yards to finish second.  I had a half hour break in the action so I went upstairs to film my first video sequence at this point. The next play was the fifth at Gulfstream, a maiden claiming turf event going 7 1/2 furlongs.  My top choice was Rose Graciela.  In her last three starts she had earned figures of 63, 68, and 64 on the Beyer scale.  Of the seventy-five combined starts made by her rivals NONE of them had ever hit 60.  She looked to be a solid choice with veteran Edgar Zayas aboard.  She burst to the front as they turned for home and was clear in mid-stretch but then a challenger had all the momentum and was flying.....PHOTO FINISH!  

If you'd asked me right after the race I would have said I thought I'd won, but it was VERY close.  The photo is above about two strides before the wire and it was very close.  But I was the winner at odds of 4/5 and I had my third consecutive winner where I'd listed the pick as a triple investment.  When I cashed I collected over $28.  In the sixth at Monmouth I had Feisty Valentine at 5/2 on the turf.  He was clear in the stretch, but nailed on the wire - another winner that would have brought in a nice return but was a very second.  The third at Arlington Park was my "BET of the DAY!"  It was scheduled to go one mile on the turf in allowance company and my pick was Her Emmynency.  Her last start had been a win in the $100K Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita, and prior to that she'd won over the synthetic main track at Del Mar, so even if the rain in the Chicago area forced this to the poly track I was still all in.  Trainer Michael Stidham was a 23% winner with long layoffs and she had a bullet work just a month ago.  She just laid over the field in my opinion.  She was 1/9 early but finally floated up to 2/5 - which I thought were fair odds.  As they moved through the far turn over the synthetic main track she was blocked behind a wall of four horses, but I could tell that the rider had plenty of horse, she just needed a way through!  The rail runner began to weaken as the two outside of her separated themselves from her - a seam!  Her Emmynency burst through I fully expected her to draw off with authority.  But the outside of the two leaders had another gear and the length of the stretch these two fillies went at it one head up and one head down!  There were at least two head bobs inside the final 16th that I thought I was going to lose, but on the wire I was pretty confident that Her Emmynency had surged to the front to score.  As you can see in the close-up photo she, on the inside, was the winner.  

As they loaded into the gate she'd been listed at 1/2 odds, which I thought were generous, but by the time they hit the wire the late money made her 2/5, so my $40 win ticket meant I'd get $56 back.  With four wins from my last five picks I thought maybe I was set to go on a roll.  But my next three were not even on the board :(  Ready Strike was 7th in a Belmont turf allowance, Ain't Misbehavin was 4th in the opener at Santa Anita, a starter allowance sprint on the main track, and Conquest City Girl was 5th as the 9/5 second choice in the Victoria Stakes for juveniles over the Woodbine inner course.  But I picked up my first stakes win in the sixth at Delaware.  I had seen Donworth run on the undercard at Pimlico on Preakness Day in the Sir Barton Stakes.  He had been third that day, and while I was not really so impressed with him then I thought he laid over this field.  The question was about the surface.  I wrote in my analysis that if trainer Graham Motion thought he could run on the turf I was willing to tag along, but with the recent weather I wondered if he was hoping for a move to the main track.  If he was hoping for that he got his wish and Donworth was the prohibitive favorite.  From the opening bell he was hounding the front runner and it looked like it was not a question of if he'd run by, just a question of when he'd make his move to sprint to the wire.  On the far turn he glided to the front while jockey Trevor McCarthy didn't move a muscle.  With each stride he widened the margin and McCarthy still sat motionless; if anything he geared him down through the final 16th, and the winning time tied the track record!  WOWZA!  Some horses don't look or run to their prohibitive odds, but this guy was every bit the 1/5 favorite.  The final two selections on the sheet were off the board.  At Churchill Downs Hard Promises was 5/1 and ran a distant seventh and then Weavers Ice Cold was the 4/5 chalk at Thistledowns in a maiden special for two-year-olds at Thistledowns and was sluggish throughout - lucky to finish fifth I thought.  With five winning selections on the second page of my handicapping guide I was hopeful as I turned the page, but it took nearly an hour to get another winning ticket.  The 7th at Gulfstream was a five furlong claiming sprint on the grass and Comet Sixty Two was being sent out by trainer Kirk Ziadie who is winning at an astounding 50% for the spring-summer meeting (21-of-42).  He had a front-runner to target who had yet to hold on and I thought it was stealing that he was allowed to leave the post at 2/1.  He was flying through the lane but could not get by the front runner in a photo finish/head bob, second.  My "upset of the day" was the next at Monmouth.  Crafty Time was 15/1 in the program and 14/1 at post time for the claiming route on the turf.  Ran to his odds, 6th.  The 8th at Churchill came off the grass and was on the main track.  I tossed my prime time runner - who was scratched with the surface switch and went with AE Hazards of Love who had won is last two in a row on the main track, including two back in an off-the-turf like this.  He was the 9/5 second choice and could not match strides late with the other AE who was the 6/5 favorite.  Second, again.  At Belmont I liked Todd Pletcher's Hunt Road who the DRF made 10/1.  He was 7/2 in the program but was 4/1 at post time.  He stalked the leaders, forged to a short lead, dueled into deep stretch and JUST missed.  Man, that one - again - would have REALLY helped the bottom line with a double investment.  The Grade 3 Obeah was a nine furlong prep for the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap coming up in July (I'll miss it this year as we'll be in Europe).  Fortune Pearl had won three of her last six, the other three all being losses to Stopchargingmaria in graded company.  She was a juicy 4/1, but never threatened and finished fourth.  FINALLY I was back in the winner's circle with my next.  At Churchill Downs Conquest Eclipse was entered into a nw1x allowance route.  She'd run in three straight Grade 1 events to close out her juvenile campaign, including the Breeders' Cup.  She was 6/5 in the program but I never expected her to be 1/5 at post time.  Tracked the leaders confidently while three wide into the lane and then accelerated to the wire.  She won by daylight, but it was hardly the same kind of winning effort that Donworth had delivered at 1/5 earlier today.  That no longer went official then they were loaded into the gate for the feature at Belmont, the Grade 3 Bed O'Roses.  I thought that speedster La Verdad would take some money, but she was vulnerable at today's seven furlong distance.  That led me to Todd Pletcher's Dame Dorothy who owned a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance.  She had won her last two with my ticket at this distance - first in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint at Gulfstream on SSM Day, and then most recently on Kentucky Derby Day when she won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff when she knocked off defending Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Champion Judy the Beauty.  But when I looked at the board Dame Dorothy was getting hammered.  She was 1/9 for a while and eventually was a more fair 3/5 as the gates popped open.  I was very surprised when she went straight to the front - how could she have outrun La Verdad?  Did that one break poorly?  I looked at my sheet and noted she was the #6, and that's when I saw that there WAS NO #6 in the race.  Oh, now I see why the heavy betting action.  Should have looked more carefully, I probably would have upped the investment.  Dame Dorothy set very soft fractions and seemed to have the race under a hammer lock as they hit the far turn, but then a long shot came to her with a lot of momentum.  Jockey Javier Castellano asked for to run and the two fillies put on a spectacular stretch duel.  One head up and one head down the length of the New York strip until finally in the last three jumps Dame Dorothy's class pushed her to the front.  

I had gone prime time on her and cashed for $35! Two in a row!  The 4th at Santa Anita was a down-the-hill turf sprint.  Normally I look for horses that have won down the hill, but in this twelve horse collection the only two with such a win were last-out maiden winners.  With The Breeze had only raced down the unique course once and it was a solid effort.  I looked for improvement today at a solid price.  She was 11/1 - and ran like it, ninth.  They had just crossed the wire when the field was crossing over to the inner course at Gulfstream for the co-featured King Cugat Stakes.  Gulfstream handicapper had made Rizwan his "BEST" of the day in this spot, but that guy - despite being 3-for-3 at the distance - had no appeal for me at all.  I realize a lot of it was because I'd bet him last out and he was a non-threatening third behind a winner I did NOT like, albeit at a longer distance.  But he just did not look like the winner.  Instead I liked My Point Exactly who had been last seen in the Grade 3 Penn Mile.  He was only beaten a length in that event and his only other turf race was a win - IN A STAKES RACE!  That's good enough for me!  He was a fair 2/1 and as they turned for home he split horses and the three of the dueled through the final 16th of a mile.  My Point Exactly wore them down late and his head was clearly in front despite the "PHOTO" sign that went up.  I walked back in confident that I was holding a double investment winning ticket in my hand!  

When it went official the price that went on the board was a generous $6.20 so I was cashing for over $30 with my third win in my last four selections!  But then the last five races we watched live were all disappointments.  Bear's Personality was a no-show 7th at 5/2 at Woodbine in 3-lifetime allowance company;  Divining Rod was a huge disappointment to me after running well in the Preakness when a 2/1 third in the Ohio Derby.  The winner was Mr. Z who had also run in the Preakness.  Good for him after losing 13 consecutive races following a maiden win!  Willow Hills at Churchill Downs was 3/5 but could not catch the 20/1 longshot wire-to-wire winner when second.  At Arlington it was scheduled to be a nine furlong turf event with Love You Mon in the #2 slot as the LONE speed.  When he stayed in the race I didn't mind, he still looked like the lone front runner and the crowd gave him a big chance, betting him down from 8/1 program odds to 5/2 at post time.  But as they came out of the gate the rider pulled him back to track the pace in fourth.  No punch late, sixth while the winner went wire-to-wire at a big price. That so should have been my horse :(  The final race we watched love was the feature at Monmouth, The Red Cross.  I had a bad feeling about More Than A Party, but when I handicapped the race in his last nine dirt sprints she'd won SIX times.....and two of the three losses came in a graded stakes to the red-hot Merry Meadow at Gulfstream (2nd) and to the multiple stakes winner Geeky Gorgeous.  There were no such talented runners in here today.  With the inside draw I thought Paco Lopez, who was a 42% winning rider for trainer Edwin Broome, would take them coast to coast.  Didn't even make the lead out of the gate and was a dismal 7th at even money.  We left on that note and headed home.

After we got home we picked up Kim and got a quick bite to eat.  Then I went to the DVR and watched the replays of the last few races on my sheet.  A Churchill Downs Theworldweknow was completely outrun at 5/2 when 8th in their finale.  At belmont the finale was a six furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers.  Pink Freud Live was dropped in for a tag last time out and was second, beaten a neck.  Today she got Javier Castellano to ride.  Stalked into the stretch, moved to the front.....stretch duel.....PHOTO finish.  I had to check the results to see who won it was so close.  Second, and at a big 7/2 price with a double investment :(  The last two selections on the sheet were from Santa Anita, their two feature races.  In the 7th it was The Singletary going 8 furlongs on the turf.  Soul Driver was listed at a big 12/1 in the program, but he was getting Gary Stevens and had last run third to the very talented Pappacoolpappacool in the La Puenta Stakes.  Stevens had him near the back to the far turn and then turned him loose.  He rallied some five wide and I was waiting for a stretch duel, but in a flash he was by the four leaders and drew off by double digits.  Ultra impressive!  

And at a big $9.20 price!  If only I'd even doubled the investment, sigh.  Still, I'll collect over $20 when I next go to Gulfstream.  The last race on the sheet was the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks and it featured the return of Stellar Wind.  She'd won back-to-back graded events here at Santa Anita this spring, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks as my top choice.  Then she went to Louisville where she was my top choice in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  She was bothered at the start and was WAY too far off the pace, but still got fourth.  Today she had a sharp bullet work and laid over the field on class IF she wasn't over the top.  She was a little closer to the pace than I would have liked, but the front runners were slowing the race down so she had not choice.  She moved three wide and seemed in hand, but as heads turned for home and she kicked on, longshot Paris Tango went right with her under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.  It was a stirring stretch duel and not until the final fifty yards did Stellar Wind edge clear by the narrowest of margins.  She was only 2/5, but I went prime time on her and I'll collect nearly $30 on that play.  

So for the weekend - counting both Thursday and Friday - I was 15-for-43 with my handicapping selections, that's a nice 35% winners.  I did not make any money, but that's hard to do when eleven of the fifteen were 8/5 or less and eight of those were less than even money (including two at 1/5 and two at 2/5).  Another way to look at it is if you take the three "just miss" second place finishes where I had double investments on price horses:  Style Drift at 5/1 in the 2nd at Belmont, Hunt's Road at 4/1 in Belmont's 7th, and Pink Freud Live at 7/2 in Belmont's 10th - that's a collective $155 in missed money; even any two of those score and it's a completely different outcome.  Sigh.....the racing game!

June 20 Racing Recap

June 13

Houston Weekend

This weekend we were in Houston to visit Jeff, Cameron & Antoinette.  Saturday was "Downs After Dark:  White Party" - which we'd gone to in 2013!  The card featured three graded stakes and there was my "BET of the DAY" in California today in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes.  There were three major "story lines" to the day......first, I had used some of my free time in Houston to handicap the entire Churchill card and Santa Anita card and came up with a dozen selections to play online.  But much like Belmont weekend Friday I thought I had tried to make the races fit me instead of the other way around.  And since I would not be watching them as they happened I decided to go with the three races I felt most strongly about - the races I originally wanted to play.  So I put in my investments in the morning for the Grade 3 Adoration at Santa Anita, and then two of the graded events under the lights in Louisville, the Grade 1 Stephen Foster and the Grade 3 Matt Winn.  The second story line came as a big surprise and honestly it was not only the highlight of the day for me, but - with the exception of the time with my grandson - was the highlight of the entire five day visit.  Jeff & Antoinette had just moved into their new house and they were busy the entire time we were there getting things set up and put away.  On Saturday, Jeff's day off, they were very busy but at one point he told his wife he just needed a break and asked me if I wanted to go on a "road trip" to Sam Houston Park to cash his Belmont Stakes tickets.  He legitimately wanted to cash them because they were leaving on vacation next weekend and he had made a $100 bet for one of his buddies (didn't want that fellow to have to wait for his money until they got back).  Obviously I wanted to (a) spend time with my son, (b) go to the races - even though they were not running live, and (c) add a new track to my list of tracks I've been to.  On the way out there Jeff looked at the clock in his truck and said we should be getting there right around post time for Belmont's feature, and he asked was it a big race.  I looked it up and unfortunately the feature had been a graded stakes that went in the fifth.  But then I noted that Dave Liftin's "Best" of the day was in the eighth and we would be getting to Sam Houston about 15 minutes before post of the eighth!  We both decided we would go with Dave's pick - Sister Sophia in a turf sprint.  As they hit the far turn the 3/5 favorite was dead last and not even in the monitor.  But then like a rocket she exploded from last, circled the field and won going away!  The fact that the trip was unplanned, the bet was TOTALLY unplanned, and then to win when it looked like we were hopelessly out of it just made for a great story & experience.  Of course we had to document the event with a photo!  

We  headed home and later Jeff took Antoinette out for her birthday.  Shortly after they left it was post time for the Grade 3 Adoration in So Cal.  On May 9 Breeders' Cup 2013 Distaff champion - who had made her 2015 debut in the Santa Lucia Stakes on Apple Blossom Friday (where I had her and Untapable in a 2-for-2 day!) - was scheduled to match up with three time stakes winner Warren's Veneda in the Grade 1 Vanity at Santa Anita.  I was so anxious for that match-up because I KNEW Beholder would romp and I'd get a fair price with Warren's Veneda being considered the "now" horse.  Beholder came down with a cough and had to scratch, and then Warren's Veneda was defeated (3rd) at 1/9 odds - ouch.  So today they were meeting in the Grade 3 Adoration.  Any chance that Beholder would even approach even money went down the drain when the results of the Vanity were official.  And it didn't help what slim hopes of a "fair" price there were when Beholder was listed as the 2/5 program favorite.  Now everyone "knew" what I did, she was a mortal lock.  She was 1/9 as they approached the gate, but finally floated up to an acceptable 1/5.  Beholder stalked the longshot pace setter, glided by to open up by daylight spinning out of the turn.  While jockey Gary Stevens sat motionless on the champion Warren's Veneda was surging.  But you could tell she was in an all-out drive while Beholder was just cantering.  The margin of victory, officially 1 1/4 length, could have been double digits if Beholder had been asked to run.  And later I read her trainer's comments that she wasn't even 100%!  I will anxiously await her next start, the Grade 1 Clemente Hirsch at Del Mar on my birthday!   Beholder had been my "BET of the DAY" with a $100 win ticket!  I cashed for $120!  Whoooo hooooooo.

 So as the Churchill Downs graded stakes approached I was 2-for-2 on the day.  But that was to be the end of the winning despite two valiant efforts where I was second by a combined margin of less than a length.  In the Grade 1 Stephen Foster my pick, Lea, was the 9/5 favorite and broke sharply.  But for some reason rider Joel Rosario eased him back off the pace by some five lengths.  He made his move coming into the lane on the lone speed front runner, but came up just short.....I am certain he'd have won if allowed to press that one into the stretch.  Then in the Grade 3 Matt Winn for 3yo colts, I went with 1/2 chalk Fame and Power.  He'd romped impressively in the Sir Barton on Preakness Day when I was in Baltimore to see him run live.  That alone would have made him my pick, but he was the LONE SPEED here.....looked long gone to me.  The gates opened and he was slow to start and squeezed - last.  He began to make up ground quickly but was checked and then blocked all the way down the backside.  Finally coming out of the turn he got free and chased the lone cheap speed and again, like Lea, just fell short.  

Still, it was a great day of racing considering we were in Houston vacationing and visiting our "kids"

June 13 Video Recap

June 6: Belmont Stakes Day

Belmont Weekend

Well, everything you are about to read is NOT the way I saw the weekend playing out, but the bottom line is that I will always remember this weekend as the weekend I saw the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years! 

June 5
My week started when I spent all day Monday writing up the sensational weekend last weekend when I scored in 20 races overall.  By the time I'd finished the journal entry there were entries available for Friday's big card on the Belmont Festival weekend.  Kim and I had decided that we'd approach Belmont Day like we had Derby Day - go out for a few early races, have lunch, then come home for the big races.  So my plan was to make Friday the big day at the track.  By the time Thursday had rolled around I had two full sheets of over forty selections from ten different tracks.  But by late Thursday I just had this sense that instead of letting the races come to me I'd made the races fit my desire to bet the races.  So by Friday morning I'd made the decision that I would NOT be going to the track and that I would abandon my picks.  I told Kim I was playing the Belmont card only.  And I have to say in retrospect that was the "best bet" I made on the day!  From the first twenty selections I won the first one (paid $3.00) and then lost NINETEEN CONSECUTIVE races!  Wise decision to recognize that these were not legitimate bets!  I was surprised when I lost five straight to start the day at Belmont, but I kept telling myself that the two races I was most certain about were the final two on the card, the two graded events.  In the eighth it was the Grade 2 True North Handicap and I liked Todd Pletcher's lightly raced Rock Fall.  I had him when he'd won last time out at Keeneland and today he was making his stakes (and graded stakes) debut.  But in spite of facing some veteran runners who were already graded winners, including last-out Grade 1 winner Dad's Caps, I thought he looked much the best.  I was surprised that the crowd bet him down to favoritism, but he was easily best. 

I went "prime time" on the bet so the $4.40 pay off returned well over $40.  Whooo Hoooo!  And now, I thought, the "Bet of the Day" wins in the last pick and it's been a good day.  That race was  the Grade 2 New York for fillies and mares going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  Stephanie's Kitten just laid over the field, so much so that even the DRF handicappers that NEVER take the chalk both agreed she was the clear winner.  And coming from off the pace she even had a "rabbit" entry mate in the field to set the table.  It looked like a slam dunk with Stephanie's Kitten's LAST THREE figures better than all but one lifetime figure earned in the field.  But when the race started I immediately had concerns because the jockey on the so-called pace-setter was setting a moderate or even slow pace and looked to have no intention what-so-ever of setting a fast pace.  Instead he looked to be trying to steal the race on the front end.  When they hit the far turn Stephanie's Kitten made her move and loomed up four wide into the lane.  To be fair, the "A" game from this multiple Grade 1 winner would have blown by even with that pace, but instead she ran evenly to be third while the first-time Euro import scored at a huge price.  Disappointment to end the day.  But that's ok because "I won" by not going to the races and suffering through a very long day.....not to mention the many more dollars I would have lost.

June 6:  Belmont Day
Despite the way Friday's racing went, I was extremely confident that at worst I'd have a good day to write about and at least a break-even day.  I told several people that the card looked like three (maybe four) races where the winner was obvious and the rest were toss-up events.  But I had a pick in each of the eleven races on the day and I thought at least a couple of my price plays had a chance.  Our plan was to arrive at Gulfstream a little after eleven a.m. as the first race - a stakes race at that - had an 11:35 post time.  Then at 12:30 we'd have lunch - right after my first "big" bet of the day.  And we'd watch my "BET of the DAY" run and head for home about 2 pm.  You can say that what I'm about to tell you has absolutely nothing to do with the racing outcomes for the day, but I've been down this road before and sometimes, the "way of life" just is what it is.......  We got up and were ready for our morning coffee.  Keith has been staying with us for the last few weeks and so Kim's car is always behind mine and we've driven hers except on the weekends.  So today I was also looking forward to driving my cool sports car.  Get in with our coffee cups, I push the starter button and am greeted with deafening silence.  No power, not even a clicking noise.  Really?  It's not so much the dead battery, it's the whole hassle that's involved.  The first thing I thought is that I won't be driving the car to the races and the second thing is that I really don't want to deal with this today.  We are already planning to leave here about 10:30 and it's 7:30 already.  Give up coffee?  Back and forth to the car place, and again to pick it up and still get out to the races on time?  And they aren't open tomorrow.  Sigh......Just sit back, let it go, it's a big day on the racing scene.  So away we went and got to Gulfstream about twenty minutes before post time.  Kim did some shopping and I made my bets for the day, including a bet on the Belmont for both my Mom and Brad.  I was texting with Brad on the way out (well, actually Kim was doing the physical texting) and he was wanting to just bomb American Pharoah.  I told him that he could do what he wanted with his money, but at his current odds of 1/5 I wouldn't be betting a lot of money to win a little.  He decided to go with the same as my bet.....$50 to win.  So I headed to the television monitors and looked at the Belmont screen.  It was the Easy Goer Stakes for 3yo colts.  The field of six had an uncoupled entry from the Todd Pletcher barn, but Stanford just towered over this group.  He'd been my pick in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and went gate to final photo-finish head bob at 7/1.  Today against a small group of listed stakes runners - forget about it!  I wasn't surprised when I saw the last flash of odds and he was 2/5, but I was shocked that there were now only three horses in the field!  And two of them were Pletcher colts!  You can probably guess - I ran second, and both Pletcher horses were beaten by the "other" colt.  That, along with the car issue, did not bode well for the day.  But I just put it behind me in spite of the "prime time" investment loss.  In the second my pick was Wisecracker who was hammered down to 6/5 - faded to sixth.  What is going on?  Still, no problem, next up is the Grade 2 Woody Stephens for three-year-old colts and my pick was Pletcher's undefeated Competitive Edge.  First of all he had been pointed for the Grade 1 Met Mile later on the card against multiple graded stakes winning older horses.  But Pletcher opted to take advantage of the opportunity to get one more big win against his own generation before tackling older later in the summer.  He had won all four of his races by a combined thirty plus lengths, never been threatened.  The only "concern" was that his best figure had been outrun once by two different horses, but those figures seemed like real aberrations compared to the rest of their numbers.  The gates sprung open with him a generous 4/5 on the board and he broke a step slowly.  Not the best break considering he typically runs near the lead, but he is just so much better than these I had no worries.  As they approached the far turn he was in third, but the red flags were up.  While the leader's rider sat motionless in the saddle, John Velazquez was already riding Competitive Edge with a sense of urgency to get him moving.....and with no response.  Through the lane he just stopped completely and was sixth and last to suffer his first loss.  0-for-4 on the day.  OK, now the day is all about saving the Triple Crown with American Pharoah at the end of the day and trying to cash a couple of tickets so it's not a complete wipe out.  Kim and I headed to lunch and I was "bothered" but still in good spirits.  While eating I watched my pick in the Grade 3 Jaipur run an even sixth at 3/1.  Time for the "BET of the Day" - the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps featured Breeders' Cup Champion Untapable.  She just towered over these......of the sixty-six career races of the others they had one triple digit Beyer combined, Untapable had run four in her recent past; in Grade 1 starts the field was a combined 2-for-12 and Untapable was a winner of FIVE STRAIGHT Grade 1 races.  And today's distance was her favorite with a record of 9/6-1-1.  The broke out and there was a leader who was "loose" visually on the lead but she wasn't all alone.  On the turn here came Untapable, and I said to Kim as we watched, "that's her move, she's running her race.....we just have to go on by the leader...." but that never happened.  The leader opened up and scored by daylight while Untapable was life and death to hold second.  Now the day is about the Triple Crown and cashing ANY tickets.  Winning or breaking even is not happening.  We headed for home.  In the sixth I ran 3rd at 4/1; in the 7th I was a big 7/1 in the Grade 1 Acorn.  Miss Ella made a menacing move on the turn then weakened to be 7th.  In the Just A Game I ran 8th at 3/1.  In the Grade 1 Met Mile Breeders' Cup Champion Bayern was a dismal tenth at 7/2.  Now it's nearly five pm and I've skidded through nine straight losses.  I kept telling myself, it's not about my picks or results that impacts how American Pharoah runs today.  But I have to admit to being concerned in that the announcers on the NBC telecast kept reminding everyone that NOT A SINGLE FAVORITE has won a race today!.  After the Met Mile it was time for the lone bet I'd made NOT at Belmont.  I'd seen Lady Shipman run several weeks ago in a stakes at Pimlico and she was dynamic.  She'd faltered in her most recent, but that was graded company going a mile.  Today she was back to a listed stakes event and back to sprinting.  Looked easily best - but hey, I've said that many times already today.  She broke right on top and surprisingly never looked back!  I WIN!  

The $3.00 payoff means I will cash for $30 when I head back to Gulfstream.  Two races left at Belmont, first I have a longshot in the Grade 1 Manhattan on the turf, and that's a good thing considering the way the day's gone.  But I had the wrong longshot as I ran 5th at a big 15/1 price with Euro import Magic Artist.  Time for the Belmont.  Truly the only concern I had about the running of the Belmont was the mile and a half distance.  I honestly believed that American Pharoah was going to win, and win with authority.  And he looked like the lone speed.  Trainer Todd Pletcher had commented several times on camera yesterday and today that his Florida Derby winner Materiality would be near the front early and he expressed specifically that he wanted to make sure that American Pharoah didn't get an easy trip on the front end.  But I thought, unless jockey Victor Espinoza tried to sprint with Materiality it wouldn't matter.  I was encouraged when Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey said he expected American Pharoah to run a huge race, maybe even a peak effort and wire the field impressively.  The crowd roared as they broke out of the gate, and American Pharoah was rocking back as they gates sprung open so he was half a beat slow, but was quickly in front.  I could tell that even though Materiality was close on his back hip he wasn't pressing him.  I told Kim as they went down the backstretch that the pace was comfortable, not too fast, but not so slow that he was stealing it.  But he seemed well in hand.  On the far turn Materiality tried to ramp up the pressure and the stalkers began to make their move.  But without even being asked American Pharoah not only held his lead, but actually edged away.  And then the tell-tale sign.  As they were coming out of the far turn Espinoza looked first over his inside shoulder and then over his outside shoulder to see if there was any threat.  When your rider looks back you KNOW he's got a ton of horse.  Heads turned for home and Frosted - who many "wise guy bettors" liked, accelerated into second, swung off the rail and now had dead aim on the champion.  But the lead was a clear length and NOW Espinoza gave the signal and American Pharoah exploded!  Even as I watched it and it was going EXACTLY as I thought it would, I was amazed and astounded.  At the 16th pole I said out loud, oh my he's really going to do it!  The roar of the crowd was something on TV and later the announcers all said they'd never heard such a roar at Belmont.  American Pharoah coasted under the line by five and half lengths, the second biggest winning margin of the Belmont ever (behind Secretariat's unbelievable 31 length runaway) and in the second fastest time ever run in the Belmont Stakes.  He's truly, THE ONE.  The thirty-seven year drought without a Triple Crown is over!  

I watched the rest of the telecast and then the hour-long post race telecast.  I couldn't get enough of the coverage and just couldn't believe what I'd just seen, finally.  As I had said to Kim prior to the race, I thought he'd win so handily and that afterwards everyone would say, what were we ever worried about?  And it was exactly that.  But from the top of the stretch home it was like it all happened in slow motion and I just couldn't believe that there would not be any surprise spoiling to the happy ending, no he'd won the Triple Crown.  And as I told several people subsequently, how cool that this year, this horse wins the Triple Crown and I saw him not once but TWICE LIVE on the road to the Triple Crown and probably will see him a third time when he runs in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  Just amazing.  What a day it turned out to be.  Enjoy the replay below.

2015 Belmont Stakes