Gulfstream Saturday
The racing week got started on Thursday, and by accident really. When I opened the paper on Wednesday morning and looked at the entries for Gulfstream - they typically run on Wednesday - I saw that the sixth race had Alaco Castle listed as the 6/5 favorite and was the paper's "best" of the day. I went to Gulfstream's web page to see what their handicapper thought of him and found it odd that they had no selections for Wednesday, but had picks for Thursday. I then checked on twinspires.com and saw that Gulfstream was NOT running on Wednesday. Interesting.....so on Thursday I checked the entries and there was Alaco Castle running in the sixth. I read the picks from the web page and everyone seemed to agree he was the one to beat. I couldn't remember exactly when I'd bet him during the Championship Meet, but I knew he was a good runner. So I made him a prime-time investment. That evening I watched the replays and the crowd had bet him down to 1/2 favoritism. He broke sharply, tracked the pace three wide into the turn and then ran away without ever being asked for his best. Cashed for $30 and I had my first winner of the weekend. Earlier in the day Kim had left for the west coast of Florida to spend three days with her parents while I stayed home here with Keith. He has been working on our second bathroom and he wanted to head down to the Villages at Gulfstream for an organizer at the Container Store there. I suggested we head down around 4 pm to watch a race or two, have dinner, and then walk over to the store. I checked out who was running around that time and because of a "stable alert" email I discovered that one of my favorite runners, Regally Ready, was running at 4:53 at Indiana Grande. Now this guy was a former Breeders' Cup champion, but has revived his career as a mile runner. He's won several stakes for me, and even scored in an off-the-turf stakes at Mountaineer last year. That was important because there has been all kinds of rain in the midwest so I'd be supporting him on either surface. We got out there about 4:40 and sure enough they were off the turf, and Regally Ready was the 3/5 favorite. Somehow the crowd let him float up to 4/5 and he, like Alaco Castle on Thursday, was the easiest of winners. I only had a double investment on him, but still I was cashing again....2-for-2 and the weekend's races had not even started. I looked at Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day and it was coming up at Belmont with Liam's Map, a very talented horse. But he was in a competitive spot and coming off a layoff. Without the pp's I was reluctant. And when he was 2/5 I passed. We watched the race as we had dinner at the Yard House and he too walked with it. Still, I was content that I would have risked too much money to make very little. So the weekend's racing started with me off to a 2-for-2 beginning!
Saturday started with the opener at Churchill. They too were off the turf and I had to make some adjustments to my handicapping selections from Louisville, but not in the opener. I liked Prosecution who looked like the controlling speed in a short field. With just a few minutes to post time Keith remarked how it was stealing for him to be 5/2 in this spot. But he took late money and was the 8/5 favorite as the gates opened. Still, that was a generous price considering the angles I thought he had: (1) he appeared to be the lone speed; (2) the barn was scoring at a 21% rate with turf-to-dirt runners; and (3) jockey John Court was winning at a 44% clip for this outfit. He went right to the front and never looked back. He paid $5.20 and I was collecting $26 to start the day. Within minutes it was time for me to head out to the rail to watch the opener from Gulfstream. It was a claiming sprint on the turf and my choice was All About Diva. Last time out she was the 2/1 favorite dropping to this level for the first time and she'd gone WAY too fast early for an apprentice rider and tired late. Today she was getting the services of veteran Edgar Zayas who I thought would ration her speed more wisely. Somehow the DRF linemaker had her at 12/1 - go figure. I thought I might get a fair price when the program put her at 9/2. At post time she was a generous 2/1. Right to the front, clear by daylight and sailed past me as I stood on the rail to score! I'm 2-for-2 - whoooo hooooo!
I went back inside to our seats in the "Silks Simulcast" area and Keith asked me just how many in a row was I going to win? I smiled and said I was having a pretty good summer. Should have known better because it was another hour before I'd cash again. The next three were never even in the race - Moneyinyour Pocket at Monmouth stumbled out of the gate and trailed throughout; Conquest Kronos was in mid-pack at the start and stayed fifth all the way to the wire at Woodbine; and at Delaware Park Mount Coronet was bet down from 12/1 to 8/5 but was fourth all the way around the track. Finally at Belmont I had the first of what have made a big difference in the bottom line for the day when I doubled the bet on Chad Brown's Style Drift in a Maiden Special turf route. He stalked to pace to the stretch, split horses and forged to the lead in deep stretch before being nailed in the final strides. I looked at who it was that won and it was the "other horse" I'd listed in my analysis who was also trained by Chad Brown and ironically was ridden by the brother of the jockey on my pick. Style Drift was 5/1, and that $60 winning ticket would have been nice. Less than ten minutes later it was time for my second bet at Gulfstream. This was the first of two listed stakes races on the card, the Barely Even Handicap. My pick was Little Alexis. Last year as a three-year-old she'd been running against Untapable in the Grade 1, $1 Million Cotillion at Parx and then ran in the Breeders' Cup. Her connections had said at the beginning of 2015 that their goal was to get her back to the World Championships. But in her first three starts of the year she'd run second twice and off the board. When I saw her in the entries I was at first ready to toss her and then I thought today would be the day she'd win, just because everyone WOULD jump off. The fact she had been sprinting and was trying a one-turn mile today worked in her favor and I did NOT like the favorite. She was allowed to go off at a nice 2/1 price as the gates opened. She stalked the 6/5 favorite into the turn and then the two of them went at it the length of the stretch with Little Alex getting her head in front right on the wire! After having made her an added investment in all three of her other starts this year I'd only bet the minimum today, but hey, it was a winner!
Two of my next three picks ran second - Bear's Song at 7/5 in a Thistledowns claiming sprint and Nominative at 8/5 in an off-the-turf Churchill route. In between Frolicking Gal was a well-beaten 8th at Monmouth. And so I turned the page of my selection sheet with only three wins, but that quickly changed! The third at Delaware was a maiden claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs. The obvious choice was Fashionable Frolic who had two powerful angles in her favor. First she was dropping out of a $40K turf sprint into this $15K dirt sprint, but more importantly the trainer - MacLean Robertson - was winning at a huge 41% overall (and 21% with turf-to-dirt runners). As the field moved into the far turn the leader was clear by some five or six lengths, but then Fashionable Frolic's rider asked her for run and she gobbled up ground with every stride. She inhaled the leader at the furlong marker in mid-stretch and drew off convincingly at 4/5 odds. I had tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30. Less than five minutes later on the Belmont channel I watched as former stakes winner Charming Kitten surged to the front off the turn on the inner course and scored at 6/5. Again it was a triple-investment play which the math shows a $30+ score! I missed in the fourth at Gulfstream where I bet Get A Room in the first live 2yo bet of the year. He was clear in mid-stretch as the 8/5 favorite, but was run down in the final fifty yards to finish second. I had a half hour break in the action so I went upstairs to film my first video sequence at this point. The next play was the fifth at Gulfstream, a maiden claiming turf event going 7 1/2 furlongs. My top choice was Rose Graciela. In her last three starts she had earned figures of 63, 68, and 64 on the Beyer scale. Of the seventy-five combined starts made by her rivals NONE of them had ever hit 60. She looked to be a solid choice with veteran Edgar Zayas aboard. She burst to the front as they turned for home and was clear in mid-stretch but then a challenger had all the momentum and was flying.....PHOTO FINISH!
If you'd asked me right after the race I would have said I thought I'd won, but it was VERY close. The photo is above about two strides before the wire and it was very close. But I was the winner at odds of 4/5 and I had my third consecutive winner where I'd listed the pick as a triple investment. When I cashed I collected over $28. In the sixth at Monmouth I had Feisty Valentine at 5/2 on the turf. He was clear in the stretch, but nailed on the wire - another winner that would have brought in a nice return but was a very second. The third at Arlington Park was my "BET of the DAY!" It was scheduled to go one mile on the turf in allowance company and my pick was Her Emmynency. Her last start had been a win in the $100K Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita, and prior to that she'd won over the synthetic main track at Del Mar, so even if the rain in the Chicago area forced this to the poly track I was still all in. Trainer Michael Stidham was a 23% winner with long layoffs and she had a bullet work just a month ago. She just laid over the field in my opinion. She was 1/9 early but finally floated up to 2/5 - which I thought were fair odds. As they moved through the far turn over the synthetic main track she was blocked behind a wall of four horses, but I could tell that the rider had plenty of horse, she just needed a way through! The rail runner began to weaken as the two outside of her separated themselves from her - a seam! Her Emmynency burst through I fully expected her to draw off with authority. But the outside of the two leaders had another gear and the length of the stretch these two fillies went at it one head up and one head down! There were at least two head bobs inside the final 16th that I thought I was going to lose, but on the wire I was pretty confident that Her Emmynency had surged to the front to score. As you can see in the close-up photo she, on the inside, was the winner.
As they loaded into the gate she'd been listed at 1/2 odds, which I thought were generous, but by the time they hit the wire the late money made her 2/5, so my $40 win ticket meant I'd get $56 back. With four wins from my last five picks I thought maybe I was set to go on a roll. But my next three were not even on the board :( Ready Strike was 7th in a Belmont turf allowance, Ain't Misbehavin was 4th in the opener at Santa Anita, a starter allowance sprint on the main track, and Conquest City Girl was 5th as the 9/5 second choice in the Victoria Stakes for juveniles over the Woodbine inner course. But I picked up my first stakes win in the sixth at Delaware. I had seen Donworth run on the undercard at Pimlico on Preakness Day in the Sir Barton Stakes. He had been third that day, and while I was not really so impressed with him then I thought he laid over this field. The question was about the surface. I wrote in my analysis that if trainer Graham Motion thought he could run on the turf I was willing to tag along, but with the recent weather I wondered if he was hoping for a move to the main track. If he was hoping for that he got his wish and Donworth was the prohibitive favorite. From the opening bell he was hounding the front runner and it looked like it was not a question of if he'd run by, just a question of when he'd make his move to sprint to the wire. On the far turn he glided to the front while jockey Trevor McCarthy didn't move a muscle. With each stride he widened the margin and McCarthy still sat motionless; if anything he geared him down through the final 16th, and the winning time tied the track record! WOWZA! Some horses don't look or run to their prohibitive odds, but this guy was every bit the 1/5 favorite. The final two selections on the sheet were off the board. At Churchill Downs Hard Promises was 5/1 and ran a distant seventh and then Weavers Ice Cold was the 4/5 chalk at Thistledowns in a maiden special for two-year-olds at Thistledowns and was sluggish throughout - lucky to finish fifth I thought. With five winning selections on the second page of my handicapping guide I was hopeful as I turned the page, but it took nearly an hour to get another winning ticket. The 7th at Gulfstream was a five furlong claiming sprint on the grass and Comet Sixty Two was being sent out by trainer Kirk Ziadie who is winning at an astounding 50% for the spring-summer meeting (21-of-42). He had a front-runner to target who had yet to hold on and I thought it was stealing that he was allowed to leave the post at 2/1. He was flying through the lane but could not get by the front runner in a photo finish/head bob, second. My "upset of the day" was the next at Monmouth. Crafty Time was 15/1 in the program and 14/1 at post time for the claiming route on the turf. Ran to his odds, 6th. The 8th at Churchill came off the grass and was on the main track. I tossed my prime time runner - who was scratched with the surface switch and went with AE Hazards of Love who had won is last two in a row on the main track, including two back in an off-the-turf like this. He was the 9/5 second choice and could not match strides late with the other AE who was the 6/5 favorite. Second, again. At Belmont I liked Todd Pletcher's Hunt Road who the DRF made 10/1. He was 7/2 in the program but was 4/1 at post time. He stalked the leaders, forged to a short lead, dueled into deep stretch and JUST missed. Man, that one - again - would have REALLY helped the bottom line with a double investment. The Grade 3 Obeah was a nine furlong prep for the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap coming up in July (I'll miss it this year as we'll be in Europe). Fortune Pearl had won three of her last six, the other three all being losses to Stopchargingmaria in graded company. She was a juicy 4/1, but never threatened and finished fourth. FINALLY I was back in the winner's circle with my next. At Churchill Downs Conquest Eclipse was entered into a nw1x allowance route. She'd run in three straight Grade 1 events to close out her juvenile campaign, including the Breeders' Cup. She was 6/5 in the program but I never expected her to be 1/5 at post time. Tracked the leaders confidently while three wide into the lane and then accelerated to the wire. She won by daylight, but it was hardly the same kind of winning effort that Donworth had delivered at 1/5 earlier today. That no longer went official then they were loaded into the gate for the feature at Belmont, the Grade 3 Bed O'Roses. I thought that speedster La Verdad would take some money, but she was vulnerable at today's seven furlong distance. That led me to Todd Pletcher's Dame Dorothy who owned a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance. She had won her last two with my ticket at this distance - first in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint at Gulfstream on SSM Day, and then most recently on Kentucky Derby Day when she won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff when she knocked off defending Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Champion Judy the Beauty. But when I looked at the board Dame Dorothy was getting hammered. She was 1/9 for a while and eventually was a more fair 3/5 as the gates popped open. I was very surprised when she went straight to the front - how could she have outrun La Verdad? Did that one break poorly? I looked at my sheet and noted she was the #6, and that's when I saw that there WAS NO #6 in the race. Oh, now I see why the heavy betting action. Should have looked more carefully, I probably would have upped the investment. Dame Dorothy set very soft fractions and seemed to have the race under a hammer lock as they hit the far turn, but then a long shot came to her with a lot of momentum. Jockey Javier Castellano asked for to run and the two fillies put on a spectacular stretch duel. One head up and one head down the length of the New York strip until finally in the last three jumps Dame Dorothy's class pushed her to the front.
I had gone prime time on her and cashed for $35! Two in a row! The 4th at Santa Anita was a down-the-hill turf sprint. Normally I look for horses that have won down the hill, but in this twelve horse collection the only two with such a win were last-out maiden winners. With The Breeze had only raced down the unique course once and it was a solid effort. I looked for improvement today at a solid price. She was 11/1 - and ran like it, ninth. They had just crossed the wire when the field was crossing over to the inner course at Gulfstream for the co-featured King Cugat Stakes. Gulfstream handicapper had made Rizwan his "BEST" of the day in this spot, but that guy - despite being 3-for-3 at the distance - had no appeal for me at all. I realize a lot of it was because I'd bet him last out and he was a non-threatening third behind a winner I did NOT like, albeit at a longer distance. But he just did not look like the winner. Instead I liked My Point Exactly who had been last seen in the Grade 3 Penn Mile. He was only beaten a length in that event and his only other turf race was a win - IN A STAKES RACE! That's good enough for me! He was a fair 2/1 and as they turned for home he split horses and the three of the dueled through the final 16th of a mile. My Point Exactly wore them down late and his head was clearly in front despite the "PHOTO" sign that went up. I walked back in confident that I was holding a double investment winning ticket in my hand!
When it went official the price that went on the board was a generous $6.20 so I was cashing for over $30 with my third win in my last four selections! But then the last five races we watched live were all disappointments. Bear's Personality was a no-show 7th at 5/2 at Woodbine in 3-lifetime allowance company; Divining Rod was a huge disappointment to me after running well in the Preakness when a 2/1 third in the Ohio Derby. The winner was Mr. Z who had also run in the Preakness. Good for him after losing 13 consecutive races following a maiden win! Willow Hills at Churchill Downs was 3/5 but could not catch the 20/1 longshot wire-to-wire winner when second. At Arlington it was scheduled to be a nine furlong turf event with Love You Mon in the #2 slot as the LONE speed. When he stayed in the race I didn't mind, he still looked like the lone front runner and the crowd gave him a big chance, betting him down from 8/1 program odds to 5/2 at post time. But as they came out of the gate the rider pulled him back to track the pace in fourth. No punch late, sixth while the winner went wire-to-wire at a big price. That so should have been my horse :( The final race we watched love was the feature at Monmouth, The Red Cross. I had a bad feeling about More Than A Party, but when I handicapped the race in his last nine dirt sprints she'd won SIX times.....and two of the three losses came in a graded stakes to the red-hot Merry Meadow at Gulfstream (2nd) and to the multiple stakes winner Geeky Gorgeous. There were no such talented runners in here today. With the inside draw I thought Paco Lopez, who was a 42% winning rider for trainer Edwin Broome, would take them coast to coast. Didn't even make the lead out of the gate and was a dismal 7th at even money. We left on that note and headed home.
After we got home we picked up Kim and got a quick bite to eat. Then I went to the DVR and watched the replays of the last few races on my sheet. A Churchill Downs Theworldweknow was completely outrun at 5/2 when 8th in their finale. At belmont the finale was a six furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers. Pink Freud Live was dropped in for a tag last time out and was second, beaten a neck. Today she got Javier Castellano to ride. Stalked into the stretch, moved to the front.....stretch duel.....PHOTO finish. I had to check the results to see who won it was so close. Second, and at a big 7/2 price with a double investment :( The last two selections on the sheet were from Santa Anita, their two feature races. In the 7th it was The Singletary going 8 furlongs on the turf. Soul Driver was listed at a big 12/1 in the program, but he was getting Gary Stevens and had last run third to the very talented Pappacoolpappacool in the La Puenta Stakes. Stevens had him near the back to the far turn and then turned him loose. He rallied some five wide and I was waiting for a stretch duel, but in a flash he was by the four leaders and drew off by double digits. Ultra impressive!
And at a big $9.20 price! If only I'd even doubled the investment, sigh. Still, I'll collect over $20 when I next go to Gulfstream. The last race on the sheet was the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks and it featured the return of Stellar Wind. She'd won back-to-back graded events here at Santa Anita this spring, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks as my top choice. Then she went to Louisville where she was my top choice in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She was bothered at the start and was WAY too far off the pace, but still got fourth. Today she had a sharp bullet work and laid over the field on class IF she wasn't over the top. She was a little closer to the pace than I would have liked, but the front runners were slowing the race down so she had not choice. She moved three wide and seemed in hand, but as heads turned for home and she kicked on, longshot Paris Tango went right with her under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. It was a stirring stretch duel and not until the final fifty yards did Stellar Wind edge clear by the narrowest of margins. She was only 2/5, but I went prime time on her and I'll collect nearly $30 on that play.
So for the weekend - counting both Thursday and Friday - I was 15-for-43 with my handicapping selections, that's a nice 35% winners. I did not make any money, but that's hard to do when eleven of the fifteen were 8/5 or less and eight of those were less than even money (including two at 1/5 and two at 2/5). Another way to look at it is if you take the three "just miss" second place finishes where I had double investments on price horses: Style Drift at 5/1 in the 2nd at Belmont, Hunt's Road at 4/1 in Belmont's 7th, and Pink Freud Live at 7/2 in Belmont's 10th - that's a collective $155 in missed money; even any two of those score and it's a completely different outcome. Sigh.....the racing game!
If you'd asked me right after the race I would have said I thought I'd won, but it was VERY close. The photo is above about two strides before the wire and it was very close. But I was the winner at odds of 4/5 and I had my third consecutive winner where I'd listed the pick as a triple investment. When I cashed I collected over $28. In the sixth at Monmouth I had Feisty Valentine at 5/2 on the turf. He was clear in the stretch, but nailed on the wire - another winner that would have brought in a nice return but was a very second. The third at Arlington Park was my "BET of the DAY!" It was scheduled to go one mile on the turf in allowance company and my pick was Her Emmynency. Her last start had been a win in the $100K Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita, and prior to that she'd won over the synthetic main track at Del Mar, so even if the rain in the Chicago area forced this to the poly track I was still all in. Trainer Michael Stidham was a 23% winner with long layoffs and she had a bullet work just a month ago. She just laid over the field in my opinion. She was 1/9 early but finally floated up to 2/5 - which I thought were fair odds. As they moved through the far turn over the synthetic main track she was blocked behind a wall of four horses, but I could tell that the rider had plenty of horse, she just needed a way through! The rail runner began to weaken as the two outside of her separated themselves from her - a seam! Her Emmynency burst through I fully expected her to draw off with authority. But the outside of the two leaders had another gear and the length of the stretch these two fillies went at it one head up and one head down! There were at least two head bobs inside the final 16th that I thought I was going to lose, but on the wire I was pretty confident that Her Emmynency had surged to the front to score. As you can see in the close-up photo she, on the inside, was the winner. 
As they loaded into the gate she'd been listed at 1/2 odds, which I thought were generous, but by the time they hit the wire the late money made her 2/5, so my $40 win ticket meant I'd get $56 back. With four wins from my last five picks I thought maybe I was set to go on a roll. But my next three were not even on the board :( Ready Strike was 7th in a Belmont turf allowance, Ain't Misbehavin was 4th in the opener at Santa Anita, a starter allowance sprint on the main track, and Conquest City Girl was 5th as the 9/5 second choice in the Victoria Stakes for juveniles over the Woodbine inner course. But I picked up my first stakes win in the sixth at Delaware. I had seen Donworth run on the undercard at Pimlico on Preakness Day in the Sir Barton Stakes. He had been third that day, and while I was not really so impressed with him then I thought he laid over this field. The question was about the surface. I wrote in my analysis that if trainer Graham Motion thought he could run on the turf I was willing to tag along, but with the recent weather I wondered if he was hoping for a move to the main track. If he was hoping for that he got his wish and Donworth was the prohibitive favorite. From the opening bell he was hounding the front runner and it looked like it was not a question of if he'd run by, just a question of when he'd make his move to sprint to the wire. On the far turn he glided to the front while jockey Trevor McCarthy didn't move a muscle. With each stride he widened the margin and McCarthy still sat motionless; if anything he geared him down through the final 16th, and the winning time tied the track record! WOWZA! Some horses don't look or run to their prohibitive odds, but this guy was every bit the 1/5 favorite. The final two selections on the sheet were off the board. At Churchill Downs Hard Promises was 5/1 and ran a distant seventh and then Weavers Ice Cold was the 4/5 chalk at Thistledowns in a maiden special for two-year-olds at Thistledowns and was sluggish throughout - lucky to finish fifth I thought. With five winning selections on the second page of my handicapping guide I was hopeful as I turned the page, but it took nearly an hour to get another winning ticket. The 7th at Gulfstream was a five furlong claiming sprint on the grass and Comet Sixty Two was being sent out by trainer Kirk Ziadie who is winning at an astounding 50% for the spring-summer meeting (21-of-42). He had a front-runner to target who had yet to hold on and I thought it was stealing that he was allowed to leave the post at 2/1. He was flying through the lane but could not get by the front runner in a photo finish/head bob, second. My "upset of the day" was the next at Monmouth. Crafty Time was 15/1 in the program and 14/1 at post time for the claiming route on the turf. Ran to his odds, 6th. The 8th at Churchill came off the grass and was on the main track. I tossed my prime time runner - who was scratched with the surface switch and went with AE Hazards of Love who had won is last two in a row on the main track, including two back in an off-the-turf like this. He was the 9/5 second choice and could not match strides late with the other AE who was the 6/5 favorite. Second, again. At Belmont I liked Todd Pletcher's Hunt Road who the DRF made 10/1. He was 7/2 in the program but was 4/1 at post time. He stalked the leaders, forged to a short lead, dueled into deep stretch and JUST missed. Man, that one - again - would have REALLY helped the bottom line with a double investment. The Grade 3 Obeah was a nine furlong prep for the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap coming up in July (I'll miss it this year as we'll be in Europe). Fortune Pearl had won three of her last six, the other three all being losses to Stopchargingmaria in graded company. She was a juicy 4/1, but never threatened and finished fourth. FINALLY I was back in the winner's circle with my next. At Churchill Downs Conquest Eclipse was entered into a nw1x allowance route. She'd run in three straight Grade 1 events to close out her juvenile campaign, including the Breeders' Cup. She was 6/5 in the program but I never expected her to be 1/5 at post time. Tracked the leaders confidently while three wide into the lane and then accelerated to the wire. She won by daylight, but it was hardly the same kind of winning effort that Donworth had delivered at 1/5 earlier today. That no longer went official then they were loaded into the gate for the feature at Belmont, the Grade 3 Bed O'Roses. I thought that speedster La Verdad would take some money, but she was vulnerable at today's seven furlong distance. That led me to Todd Pletcher's Dame Dorothy who owned a perfect 2-for-2 record at the distance. She had won her last two with my ticket at this distance - first in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint at Gulfstream on SSM Day, and then most recently on Kentucky Derby Day when she won the Grade 1 Humana Distaff when she knocked off defending Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Champion Judy the Beauty. But when I looked at the board Dame Dorothy was getting hammered. She was 1/9 for a while and eventually was a more fair 3/5 as the gates popped open. I was very surprised when she went straight to the front - how could she have outrun La Verdad? Did that one break poorly? I looked at my sheet and noted she was the #6, and that's when I saw that there WAS NO #6 in the race. Oh, now I see why the heavy betting action. Should have looked more carefully, I probably would have upped the investment. Dame Dorothy set very soft fractions and seemed to have the race under a hammer lock as they hit the far turn, but then a long shot came to her with a lot of momentum. Jockey Javier Castellano asked for to run and the two fillies put on a spectacular stretch duel. One head up and one head down the length of the New York strip until finally in the last three jumps Dame Dorothy's class pushed her to the front. I had gone prime time on her and cashed for $35! Two in a row! The 4th at Santa Anita was a down-the-hill turf sprint. Normally I look for horses that have won down the hill, but in this twelve horse collection the only two with such a win were last-out maiden winners. With The Breeze had only raced down the unique course once and it was a solid effort. I looked for improvement today at a solid price. She was 11/1 - and ran like it, ninth. They had just crossed the wire when the field was crossing over to the inner course at Gulfstream for the co-featured King Cugat Stakes. Gulfstream handicapper had made Rizwan his "BEST" of the day in this spot, but that guy - despite being 3-for-3 at the distance - had no appeal for me at all. I realize a lot of it was because I'd bet him last out and he was a non-threatening third behind a winner I did NOT like, albeit at a longer distance. But he just did not look like the winner. Instead I liked My Point Exactly who had been last seen in the Grade 3 Penn Mile. He was only beaten a length in that event and his only other turf race was a win - IN A STAKES RACE! That's good enough for me! He was a fair 2/1 and as they turned for home he split horses and the three of the dueled through the final 16th of a mile. My Point Exactly wore them down late and his head was clearly in front despite the "PHOTO" sign that went up. I walked back in confident that I was holding a double investment winning ticket in my hand!
When it went official the price that went on the board was a generous $6.20 so I was cashing for over $30 with my third win in my last four selections! But then the last five races we watched live were all disappointments. Bear's Personality was a no-show 7th at 5/2 at Woodbine in 3-lifetime allowance company; Divining Rod was a huge disappointment to me after running well in the Preakness when a 2/1 third in the Ohio Derby. The winner was Mr. Z who had also run in the Preakness. Good for him after losing 13 consecutive races following a maiden win! Willow Hills at Churchill Downs was 3/5 but could not catch the 20/1 longshot wire-to-wire winner when second. At Arlington it was scheduled to be a nine furlong turf event with Love You Mon in the #2 slot as the LONE speed. When he stayed in the race I didn't mind, he still looked like the lone front runner and the crowd gave him a big chance, betting him down from 8/1 program odds to 5/2 at post time. But as they came out of the gate the rider pulled him back to track the pace in fourth. No punch late, sixth while the winner went wire-to-wire at a big price. That so should have been my horse :( The final race we watched love was the feature at Monmouth, The Red Cross. I had a bad feeling about More Than A Party, but when I handicapped the race in his last nine dirt sprints she'd won SIX times.....and two of the three losses came in a graded stakes to the red-hot Merry Meadow at Gulfstream (2nd) and to the multiple stakes winner Geeky Gorgeous. There were no such talented runners in here today. With the inside draw I thought Paco Lopez, who was a 42% winning rider for trainer Edwin Broome, would take them coast to coast. Didn't even make the lead out of the gate and was a dismal 7th at even money. We left on that note and headed home.
After we got home we picked up Kim and got a quick bite to eat. Then I went to the DVR and watched the replays of the last few races on my sheet. A Churchill Downs Theworldweknow was completely outrun at 5/2 when 8th in their finale. At belmont the finale was a six furlong turf sprint for maiden claimers. Pink Freud Live was dropped in for a tag last time out and was second, beaten a neck. Today she got Javier Castellano to ride. Stalked into the stretch, moved to the front.....stretch duel.....PHOTO finish. I had to check the results to see who won it was so close. Second, and at a big 7/2 price with a double investment :( The last two selections on the sheet were from Santa Anita, their two feature races. In the 7th it was The Singletary going 8 furlongs on the turf. Soul Driver was listed at a big 12/1 in the program, but he was getting Gary Stevens and had last run third to the very talented Pappacoolpappacool in the La Puenta Stakes. Stevens had him near the back to the far turn and then turned him loose. He rallied some five wide and I was waiting for a stretch duel, but in a flash he was by the four leaders and drew off by double digits. Ultra impressive!
And at a big $9.20 price! If only I'd even doubled the investment, sigh. Still, I'll collect over $20 when I next go to Gulfstream. The last race on the sheet was the Grade 2 Summertime Oaks and it featured the return of Stellar Wind. She'd won back-to-back graded events here at Santa Anita this spring, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks as my top choice. Then she went to Louisville where she was my top choice in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She was bothered at the start and was WAY too far off the pace, but still got fourth. Today she had a sharp bullet work and laid over the field on class IF she wasn't over the top. She was a little closer to the pace than I would have liked, but the front runners were slowing the race down so she had not choice. She moved three wide and seemed in hand, but as heads turned for home and she kicked on, longshot Paris Tango went right with her under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. It was a stirring stretch duel and not until the final fifty yards did Stellar Wind edge clear by the narrowest of margins. She was only 2/5, but I went prime time on her and I'll collect nearly $30 on that play.
So for the weekend - counting both Thursday and Friday - I was 15-for-43 with my handicapping selections, that's a nice 35% winners. I did not make any money, but that's hard to do when eleven of the fifteen were 8/5 or less and eight of those were less than even money (including two at 1/5 and two at 2/5). Another way to look at it is if you take the three "just miss" second place finishes where I had double investments on price horses: Style Drift at 5/1 in the 2nd at Belmont, Hunt's Road at 4/1 in Belmont's 7th, and Pink Freud Live at 7/2 in Belmont's 10th - that's a collective $155 in missed money; even any two of those score and it's a completely different outcome. Sigh.....the racing game!
June 20 Racing Recap
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