Four Wins At Gulfstream!
Despite the pouring down rain early, a slow start where I dug myself a pretty good hole to climb out of and missing on three of four graded stakes at Santa Anita I had a very good day to close out the month of June. The forecast for the weekend was for rain, and it did rain on Friday, so Keith asked if I thought that Gulfstream would stay on the turf for Saturday. I told him that unlike the old Calder management, Gulfstream would stay on the grass unless it poured down rain early in the day and continued to rain. So I handicapped the card for Saturday assuming we would be on the inner course. My first selection of the weekend came on Friday night in Iowa where at Prairie Meadows they were hosting their Iowa Festival of Racing. In the Iowa Sprint I really wanted to bet Delaunay, but my reluctance was that in 2013 - when I'd bet him - he was second at 1/5; then in 2014 - when I'd bet him - he was second again at short odds. He shipped to this midwestern track a month ago and had been run down on the wire, second again, in the prep for tonight. But I just had this feeling that the connections would not have returned here if they didn't think that he finally would win. When I watched the DRF video analysis the one thing I took away from it, even though neither guy took Delaunay, was that tonight there would be NO speed to compromise his front-running trip. Still I was unsure and ultimately figured to pass the race. However as we were watching "Game of Thrones" on HBO-Go and took a break between episodes I checked the races and it was twenty minutes to post for the Iowa Sprint and Delaunay was 1/5 in the early wagering. I made the bet and doubled down on him. After everyone headed to bed I watched the replay. Delaunay broke sharply, went right to the front and never had any pressure what so ever. When the field began to make their serious bid on the turn he had plenty left and ran away for the win. He'd left the gate at a more than fair 4/5 price and I had my first win of the weekend and nearly $20 in winnings. Saturday afternoon Keith and I headed out and there was intermittent sprinkles on the drive down to Hallandale Beach. But as we approached the track itself, the closer we got the darker the skies and by the time we hit US 1 it was pouring down rain. Keith made the command decision that we should use valet - offered to pay - and that way we could stay dry, well worth it. It marked the very first time in all my trips to Gulfstream that I'd used their valet service. I didn't even know how to get there by car even though I'd walked by it every time I entered the facility! Had to follow the signs like a regular tourist :) The first race on my eight-page selection document - I had tried to give three alternatives to every race from the eight tracks and had pasted in the DRF analyst comments for that specific race as well - came from Monmouth Park where the weather was sunny and the races were on the turf. I liked Remarkable Tale in a Maiden Special event for 2yo colts. My only reluctance was that trainer Kelly Breen, usually one of the leading trainers, was only 3-for-35 with first time runners. Remarkable Tale was sent off at a short 3/5 price. After breaking slowly he ranged up three-wide to challenge for the lead at the top of the stretch, but could not get by - second. Next up was the opener at Parx. Harbor Breeze had won three races since May, more than any other entrant showed in their entire pp resume, but they "didn't count" for the conditions of the race because they were for a smaller price tag. He was the 8/5 second choice and I thought he'd go wire to wire. He broke on top and was walking through early fractions of :25.2 and :49.4 - I'm home free I thought. But at the top of the lane when asked to kick for home he ran evenly and was caught late by a 6/1 upset choice. The third race on my page was supposed to be the opener from Gulfstream, slated as a claiming event going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. But soon after we got our seats in the Silks Simulcast center it was announced that Race 1 was off the turf. I asked Keith to look at his form regarding my pick, Fever Las Vegas. I had gone back through the Gulfstream selections before we left the house and thought I'd made changes regarding a possible move to dirt, but I had no notations here. Fever Las Vegas had run his races on the turf, but he was being solidly bet. Hmmmm. Decided to stick with the minimum planned bet. I took a spot on the rail just in front of the finish line and as they turned for home he was on the rail behind three runners dueling for the lead. At the furlong marker he swung off the rail four wide and was surging as they ran past me - PHOTO FINISH! But as I walked in I was pretty sure Fever Las Vegas had had the momentum and got there in time. Confirmed by the slo-mo replay and I had my first winner of the day!
As the horses had been loading into the gate at Gulfstream the runners were lining up for the opener north of the border at Woodbine. My pick in this maiden claiming event going seven furlongs was Indiscreet Cat, a first-time starter for Sam DiPasquale. And it was because of the barn that I made this selection. According to Jim Mazur's "Woodbine Handicapper" Mr. DiPasquale had sent 34 maiden claimers to the gate over the past two years and had won with 50% of them! OH MY! Obviously qualifies as a Woodbine 40% Club play! The jockey today was Luis Garcia, and in forty-eight mounts for DiPasquale over the last two seasons, Garcia had finished first or second in 24 of them! This just seemed so obvious, but it was a "hidden angle" which most handicappers would not see without this inside information source. I was hopeful of getting a fair price on Indiscreet Cat because the DRF analysis did not list him in the top three. As the Gulfstream race was starting I was watching on my phone as Indiscreet Cat sat on the rail behind the leaders through the turn. When heads turned for home Garcia swung him into the clear and hit the "GO" button. The response was immediate and Indiscreet Cat accelerated easily past the leader to win going away. The best part was he had indeed been a fair price at 5/2. And when the $7 mutual was posted I determined I'd be cashing for over $50 because of my TRIPLE investment! As I walked in Keith congratulated me heartily on the pick! Two in a row and I'm thinking I might be having one of those days. Oh but the racing game can be so humbling, so quickly. At Monmouth Jimmy Connors was the 3/5 odds-on choice. Keith asked why I'd picked this guy when he had the look of a quitter. I pointed out that even one of his poor races towered over this lowly group - certainly with the plunge in class he'd hold on to win. Led easily into the stretch, but coughed up the lead inside the sixteenth pole, second. Then at Parx I again had the favorite, Gindini, who was a prohibitive 2/5. They hit the far turn and the jockey was holding him back behind a big price leader just to the outside. He let him go and immediately he set sail for the wire, clear by daylight into the stretch. Nearing the wire he too was caught by a price closer. Second, again. So as I turned the page I had those two nice wins, but had four runner-up finishes to go with them. My next bet wasn't until the third at Parx so I made my initial vvideo. Then came back to watch Rock Me Again - a rare Todd Pletcher trainee at Parx - get shuffled back at the top of the lane at even money, third. At Belmont, Dave Liftin's BET of the DAY - Bet The Power - rallied, second at even money. And then I went to the rail to watch Novak break slowly and trail from start to finish at odds of 3/1 - sixth. Finally, at Monmouth Ganssett Bay was 8/5, and rallied.....too late, third at 8/5. This is NOT good I'm thinking. After the two nice scores I had suffered five added money investment losses. I actually had the thought run through my mind that I might have to borrow money from Keith if this continued! 
Oh ye of little faith......the third at Belmont was a turf sprint going six furlongs for claimers. The field looked pretty evenly matched, but the first clue for me was that I did NOT like the top two favorites who were both stepping off wins at $25K to race at this $50K level today. My choice was Persnickity on the rail for Javier Castellano. He was dropping out of allowance company today and you had to go back a full year to find a race where he'd run for a tag.....and there it was. A year ago he raced for a $40K tag at this exact distance over this turf course AND WON! And then raced at this distance on the grass for today's $50K price tag and was second by a neck - nothing but allowance events since. As the field turned for home there were three dueling on the lead and Castellano had Persnickity moving off the rail. Two separated themselves as the other dropped back on the rail so Persnickity slid outside. They were inside the 16th pole and two guys to my right were screaming for the #4.....I waiting and just as Castellano made his last surge near the wire I boomed out - "GO JAVIER!" as my pick won. Whoooo hooooo.
Best part of the story - Persnickity had gone off at 7/2 and paid $9.20 - I was going to collect over $45! The 4th at Gulfstream was an entry level allowance and I picked Sarlef who held a recency edge over his rivals. After I'd made him my choice I noted he was Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "best" of the day. He was a generous 3/1 when they left the gate but was never involved, 6th. My next choice had the potential to be the "daymaker" for me. It was the fourth from Woodbine, a claiming event going seven furlongs. I was all over Mavis Road who was sent out by trainer Mark Fournier. Over the last two seasons when Fourier sent out a runner in a claiming event below $40K - like this - making a distance move - like Mavis Road was - and had jockey Diego Garcia on board - like today - he'd scored at a remarkable 55% rate! And one of those was WITH Mavis Road at 20/1 last year. I was a bit edgy that my second choice, Miss Victoria was Jim Bannon's BET of the Day and he's usually right on with those. But, I also saw this as the chance to get a good price on a top pick. Mavis Road was a big 3/1 and Miss Victoria was odds on as they hit the far turn. Mavis Road surged to the lead and then here came Miss Victoria. They battled for about a 16th of a mile, but Miss Victoria was in too good of form as she drew clear late for her third win in a row. At Monmouth Brother Mark was a juicy 5/1 but got the worst ride of the day to be a non-threatening fourth. I got back into the winner's circle with my first score at Arlington when Saturdayatbernies lived up to her even-money odds. She was never really threatened and showed her seven win resume was a statement to her consistency against this group of inconsistent cheap "beaten" claimers.
At Belmont Todd Pletcher's Gangster was a solid 2/1 in a Maiden Special making his debut. He was between runners with a chance as they hit the stretch, but ran on evenly to the wire to be fourth. At Monmouth in a 5 1/2 furlong claiming event I thought Hop Skip And Away looked on paper like oh-so-many Paco Lopez winners from last summer. He'd sit off the pace to the far turn, circle up without ever moving a muscle and look around for competition as he rode his mount out to the wire as much the best. Well, I was MOSTLY right as Hop Skip And Away did sit off the pace, and did circle up around horses into the stretch. But the leader had separated himself from the field by now. I really wasn't worried, but it took nearly the length of the stretch for Lopez to collar the leader before edging clear late - but take note, he never really asked for his horse to really run :) In what had become a nice theme to the day, Hop Skip And Away paid a very sweet $6.40 and I collected well over $30! My pick in the 5th at Belmont scratched so it was out to the rail to watch my Gulfstream "BEST BET" run. This is significant because not only was it a maiden race, but it was a maiden two-year-old event! High End Queen was being sent out by trainer Herman Wilensky who was winning at 31% overall and 40% with his juveniles. High End Queen had been a best-of-the-rest second as the favorite in her debut and was over SEVEN lengths clear of the show filly. My only fear was Stanley Gold's Platinum Band. Their two-year-olds had been red-hot, as they always are and jockey Eddie Castro was 2-for-2 this summer for them. But as I headed out High End Queen was the 4/5 favorite with Platinum Band sitting at 2/1. But as they circled around the back of the gate a lot of late money came pouring in on Platinum Band. But the time the field burst from the gate High End Queen was a fat 2/1 price. She went right to the front and you could tell from the very start that the rider KNEW he was sitting on a ton of horse. She was confidently handled into the lane and then drew off with ease as MUCH the best. OH YEAH!
The $6.00 payoff meant I'd be cashing for a sweet $60.00! I came inside just as the Woodbine 6th was finishing and I could tell on the monitor that the horse edging clear nearing the wire was my pick, #2 Keeplaffinleslie. She'd been 4/5 when I went outside to watch the Gulfstream race. As I sat down Keith said, "...two nice price wins in a row, well done!...." I looked at my monitor and Keeplaffinleslie had floated up to 5/2! The $7.60 payoff and my triple investment would result in a payout of nearly $60! At Parx, Please Explain was second at even money in a three-horse field due to the rain forcing it to the main track. But within ten minutes at Belmont Victory Is Sweet dueled in hand to the stretch and drew off as MUCH the best, justifying her 3/5 odds, and I was cashing on another triple investment. The eighth at Monmouth was coming up and Sweet On Smokey was being pounded down to 3/5 favoritism. I did NOT like her. My pick was Lucky Bella with Paco Lopez. I had planned to triple invest on her but the odds made me wary so I backed down to a double investment. Should have gone for the jugular.......the two swung into the stretch together, but Lopez was sitting on a much better horse and Lucky Bella easily ran away. The huge $12.40 payoff meant I would be cashing for over $60 but it could have been for over ninety dollars. Oh well, I was all smiles when I went to the window and handed my favorite clerk my four most recent tickets. She punched them in and the total was over $200 in winnings! I looked up at the monitor and saw that Santa Anita' second was close to post time. A glance down at my sheet and I could see that my pick was the #7. Scanning further down my next race was at Woodbine, but my pick was scratched; so the following was the 9th at Gulfstream where I liked #3 Racetrack Romance. I made the two bets and returned to my seat. Keith and I watched Architop run an even fourth at Santa Anita and then I headed out to the rail to watch the Gulfstream race. The 9th was scheduled for a mile on the turf but all races were off the turf. But this was good for me because I'd planned on only betting #3 Racetrack Romance if it came OFF THE TURF. He was 4/1 in the program, but those were turf odds, so in the early betting I was not surprised he was 5/1. As I walked to the rail he was being bet down to 5/2 - which again, did not surprise me because I was certain that most handicappers had seen what I did......Racetrack Romance is 3/2-1-0 on the off tracks! As the field broke from the gate I could see #3 fighting for the lead with #1, but the track announcer was calling that "All Over It" was in front. Well, maybe the #1 has a head in front I thought. But by the time they hit the far turn I - #3 Racetrack Romance - was in front by daylight and yet the call continued to be "All Over It leads......" What is he thinking about? I glanced at my sheet - no, I'm right - number 3, Racetrack Romance in the 9th race scheduled to go off at......oh no - at 5:00 pm. It's only about 4:30 pm! I've bet the wrong race and the wrong horse! I look up and they are heading into the stretch - #3, who truly IS All Over It, is about a pole in front and under a confident hand ride. WHOOOO HOOOO, he walked with it! I go inside to tell Keith and he laughs - he did the same thing last week :) Great track story. And to make for a perfect ending to the tale, my next bet wasn't until the 9th at Gulfstream and Racetrack Romance DID win handily! Ho ho ho.
We watched one more live race, the featured Grade 3 Eatontown on the turf from Monmouth. I didn't like the favorite and bet on Stellar Path who was 7/2 in the program. But with five minutes to post he was 15/1! I reduced my bet and hoped I wasn't missing out on a big score. I was right that the favorite didn't win, and I was glad to have reduced my play. Stellar Path was a solid third (at final odds of 6/1). I made my bets for the Santa Anita late races and planned to make the few Churchill Downs late bets through Twin Spires.
In Santa Anita's 6th, the Grade 3 Senorita, Curlin's Fox was the 4/5 favorite and was being touted as a "single" in the Pick-6. Faded badly to ninth. In the Grade 1 Triple Bend I was looking to beat Masochistic who won his first graded stakes in the prep for this, the Grade 2 Kona Gold. But not only were most of the participants the same, but the way the race looked to play out, especially with the post position draws, it looked to be a mirror image of that event with Masochistic sitting just off the speed of San Onofre to the top of the stretch, taking over and finishing comfortably in front of the late running Sahara Sky. Sure enough, San Onofre set the pace to the turn.....Masochistic glided by under a confident hand ride and Sahara Sky ran on belatedly. I felt so fortunate that the post-time odds were better than even money and I was going to cash for over $30 next weekend when I return to Gulfstream for the 4th of July program.
In the 8th at Santa Anita Birdlover set an easy pace at 3/1 in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine going a mile on the turf, only to stop badly at the top of the lane and fade to 8th. Finally in the featured Grade 1 Gold Cup - a "Win and You're In Breeders' Cup" race - Catch A Flight looked like a mortal lock. He was 8/5 as he stalked the leader into the lane, took a brief lead, but then was outfinished. I was at least right that the overrated Moreno was a non factor. The Churchill Downs After Dark racing program didn't start until the fourth due to a scratch of my first pick. In that 7 furlong spring Suwanee's Song was way out of it and finished 8th; my horse scratched from the 5th; in the 6th it was the Grade 3 Bashford Manor for two-year-olds. We just got our first Triple Crown winner less than a month ago and here we are already getting an early sneak peak at the 2016 Derby contenders! I liked He's Comin' In Hot in spite of the fact that he was the favorite. He was the only one in the field with a win over the Louisville track, he was the speed of the race and he had the rail. Right to the front, was challenged turning for home but he found another gear and drew off as my thirteenth win of the day!
In the filly version of this race, the Debutante my pick Adhara was the even money favorite. But she was in tight quarters into the turn, tried to squeeze up the rail, got through but was a narrowly beaten second. The eighth was the Grade 2 Firecracker and Sky Flight stalked the leaders at 8/5 into the lane, made a bid for the lead but was outfinished by one of my favorite horses - on dirt - Departing who won at better than 4/1....I was third. And finally in the last race of the day Good Lord had won the Kelly's Landing for me last year as the 5/2 second choice going wire to wire. But tonight he was 15/1 in the program. I thought this was WAY out of line and he looked to be the speed and had the rail. He went right to the front and was all alone turning for home at a H-U-G-E 18/1 price. He was nailed late, but he was a solid third. Great bet, no cash. So for the day I finished up 13-for-36, that's nearly 40% and another fourteen of my picks ran second or third. I made a profit of over $65 on the day. So for the first half of the summer my numbers are:
I'm pretty happy with where I stand as we get ready to take off for Europe next weekend. I'll play the 4th of July card - some BIG races at Belmont - and I'll make some bets for the Gulfstream Summit of Speed card on Sunday before we board the plane. When we return I'll begin daily handicapping at Woodbine in my "Woodbine Handicapping Project" that will take me through Saratoga - I'll be there in mid-August - Del Mar, and the fall championship season leading up the the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in October; I'll be there too1
July 27 Video Recap
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