Opening Night At Churchill Downs

April 25:  Opening Night at Churchill Downs

With Derby weekend next week and the nearly dozen stakes slated for the Oaks & Derby card most of the stars of the racing world were put away so there were very few stakes races this weekend, and those did NOT draw the best of the sport.  But if there is one thing I've discovered since becoming a big-time fan of thoroughbred racing, it's this.....they pay the same for a winning ticket if it's a bottom-level maiden claiming event, or a $1 million Grade 1 event!  And so I was out at Gulfsteam this afternoon for the racing action with the plan to be home in time to watch the "Downs After Dark" program as Churchill opens for their spring/summer meet.  And by the time the long day/night of handicapping had concluded I'd had an amazing run wit FIFTEEN WINS from thirty selections!  Whoooo hoooo! 

 

And as an added bonus, it was a day full of stories that I'll enjoy reliving for many moons to come.  My first race was slated for 12:40 from Tampa but when I checked for scratches online around 11 am I found that my pick was scratched.....glad I looked because I didn't have another bet until 1 pm, so I was able to postpone heading out for a half an hour.  The first bet came from Woodbine, where like last week I handicapped using the Woodbine 40% Club sheets.  Atasheen was my bet and left the gate as the 6/5 favorite.  I thought he should be the front-runner, but he was quickly outsprinted to the front and was never able to make an impact.....4th.  Twenty minutes later the opener at Aqueduct was underway.  Barrister Jim was my selection.  He was riding a four-race win streak and his last three speed figures were clearly superior to his rivals today.  But, he'd not been out for a year.  Adding to the dilemma was that the race was seven furlongs - it would be one thing to sprint six panels off the long layoff, but that final furlong might be the difference.  Still, I was willing to make him the bet.  He had the inside draw and immediately he went to the front and was in control as they turned for home.  Now the challengers came and at the furlong marker he was engaged by a 9/1 longshot.  All the way to inside the 16th pole it was one head up and one head down, and with about 100 yards to go it looked like each head bob had the longshot in front.  They hit the wire virtually simultaneously and at first glance I thought it was pretty likely I had not held on.  But, it was awfully close.  The slow-motion replay gave me some hope, but if I'd had to bet, I would have wagered I'd lost.....nope, I WON!  AMAZING!  My second bet was scheduled to come from Pimlico - where I'll be in three weeks for the Preakness! - but that horse also had been withdrawn.  So on to the next and it was a horse I was all too familiar with - My Cousin Fay.  This guy had just dominated a one-turn mile event here at Gulfstream in December when Kim & I were on our holiday cruise to the Caribbean.  Since then he'd run twice more at the Championship Meet and had been the favorite twice - once at 2/1 the other at 7/5; and both times had Javier Castellano on board.  But he'd failed miserably, losing the two starts by a combined 49 plus lengths!  So today he was running in a two-turn event, a claiming event going 1 mile and 40 yards at Tampa.  On his best day he would dominate these - but he obviously was NOT in peak form.  Still if he ran well he should win.  I was encouraged that (a) he was first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness (33% with a $2.37 ROI) and (b) he was being ridden by Tampa's top jockey, Antonio Gallardo (34% for Ness). 

 

He broke sharply from post three and went right to the front and seemed in complete control.  But much like the Aqueduct event a 9/1 longshot decided to take it to him, and as they hit the far turn that one had collared My Cousin Fay.  He fought bravely, but as heads turned for home the longshot had opened a clear lead of at least a length.  But, it seemed to me that he'd shot his wad and if My Cousin Fay could just reach back and find that form from December.....well, Gallardo would not give up and in spite of how very unusual it is for a horse to come back once he's been passed, that's what My Cousin Fay did as he re-rallied up the rail and edged clear late!  My second win and this time I'd doubled the bet - cashed for over $20.  At Aqueduct Magical Miss was the 8/5 favorite.  She pressed the pace three wide to the stretch then weakened to be fifth.  My first bet at Gulfstream was in a Maiden Special for sophomores, Face of Winner.  He was the 8/5 favorite and led into the lane but also weakened, third. It was at about this time that I went to the teller to make my next set of bets and cash my ticket on My Cousin Fay.  I handed the ticket to the teller - who knows me - and she looked at me and said, "Sorry, it's not a winner."  Hmmm, that's not right, I know it was a winner.  And when she handed it back to me I saw that the ticket I'd given her was from the Aqueduct race.  Oh no - I'd thrown away the winning ticket from Tampa and kept the losing ticket from New York!  I made my next two bets - on at Tampa and my "BEST" of the day here at Gulfstream, and then headed back to where I knew I'd tossed what I had thought was the losing ticket.  As I walked to the other side of the simulcast area I had two thoughts......one, the crowd - at this point in the day - was not that big so the amount of trash that was probably tossed into the bin where I'd thrown the ticket was probably minimal (providing it had not been emptied in the last twenty minutes since I'd pitched it); and two, unlike most people I don't just toss my tickets, I always fold them.  Why?  Couldn't tell you, but I do.  So I knew if there wasn't much trash in the container and I looked in and saw a neatly folded ticket, chances were it would be mine.  I went right to the trash bin, not much in there, looked down........

 

That's right, whew, sitting right on top!  Saved myself over $20 :)  The next two plays were two I was most confident in.  Elite Eight was a triple investment at Tampa in a one mile turf event for maiden claimers.  This 4yo filly was being sent out by trainer Tom Proctor for Glen Hill Farms and that's always a solid combination.  She had been a good third in MSW company at Santa Anita in her only turf try and today was her first time for a tag.  She made a big middle move after breaking from the outside and was in complete control as they hit the far turn.....but in the final fifty yards a longshot came flying by to nip her on the wire.  Sigh.....thought finding / recovering that lost ticket had been an omen of GOOD things to come!  It's ok, the "BEST" of he day was up next from Gulfstream.  Mr. Jordan had been unbeaten when he was sent out last time to face Todd Pletcher's Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes winner, Competitive Edge.  Mr. Jordan had been bet down to 4/5 odds - not by me, as I won with the Pletcher colt - so you know he had talent.  Today he dropped into a listed event and stretched out from seven furlongs to the one-turn mile distance.  My only little qualm was the rider.....but hey, the horse should win this with the rider stopping off for a hot dog at the top of the lane.  Right to the front and as they turned for home Mr. Jordan was at least four lengths clear.  But inside the final 16th a closer had all the momentum and it looked like my rider thought the race was over.  He saw the late running threat and began pumping his hands to get Mr. Jordan to step it up.....it was oh-so-close, but even though officially a photo I was standing right there near the finish line and it seemed clear to me he'd held on.  HORRAY.  Wait......objection and inquiry.  For what?  I watched the replay and saw immediately.  The closer had been at least seven wide through the stretch and Mr. Jordan was skimming the rail.  But when Mr. Jordan saw the other horse he made a sharp right hand turn - not a gradual bend, a SHARP RIGHT (watch the video) as if to say, "Hey, how's it goin'?  I'm comin' out to see you!"  And right as they were about a stride from the wire he made contact. You could tell that it was literally the stride before the wire and I had hopes that maybe the stewards would say the contact came too late to impact the outcome.  But if that wasn't the case there was not way he'd stay up.  The replay went on and on and the wait seemed forever.  Then......the numbers switched - disqualified :(  Sigh......  And right after that I lost again, this time at Woodbine when Splashy Gizmo was a dismal last of eight. 

 

Next up was the fifth from Pimlico, a turf sprint.  The first half of the entry was Billy Two Hats.  He was being sent out by trainer Joe Sharp, who in addition to being Rosie Napravnik's husband, is extremely sharp, no pun intended, trainer.  The fact that Billy Two Hats had raced over the winter at the Fair Grounds gave him a recency edge over the main contenders.  He broke right on cue, was quickly in front and L-O-N-G gone.  When I had looked at the board walking towards the windows to bet the entry was 4/5.  I thought, I get two for one on a runner that I like.....I'm upping the bet.  So I doubled the original minimum investment.  Whooo, wait.....INQUIRY.  Really?  I found out later it was because of a spill on the turn, not anything that had to do with the winner.  Man, as I said on camera, nothing's easy!  At Woodbine I was second best with Why the Ring who I liked largely because of a best-of-91 bullet work.  The fifth at Aqueduct was an interesting story.  Anyone who's followed my racing adventures know that I often have an issue with the line maker for the Daily Racing Form.  Another example here.....the New York event was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf for maidens.  I liked a first-time starter, Warrior Kitten.  As you can imagine, like nearly every other "Kitten" you run across in the thoroughbred world, this one was owned and bred by top North American owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  They were coming off a record FIFTEENTH owners' title.  Warrior Kitten's trainer was Michael Maker who enjoys great success for the Ramsey's, especially on the turf, an very often with first time starters. And the rider was top North American jockey Javier Castellano, who like the Ramseys, was coming off a championship Keeneland meet.  With all of that you would figure that Warrior Kitten, at worst, would be 3-1 or 4-1 in the program.  The DRF line maker made the odds at 20/1.  Uhhhhh, yeah.  I was having none of that - I doubled the bet.  Castellano had Warrior Kitten sitting just off the pace to the far turn.  A sweeping three-wide move and 'Kitten was in front. Clear on the lead, but here came the closers.  It was officially a photo finish (picture at right), but I knew I'd won.  And the odds - anything close to the DRF 20/1?  NO... 9/5 at post time so I was cashing for nearly $30.  At Woodbine I had my first Woodbine 40% Club play in I'm Chip.  Trainer Sam DiPasquale has won at a big 55% first off the claim over the last two years and I'm Chip was 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at a big 9/2, burst from between horses at the top of the lane, but couldn't quite catch the loose-on-the-lead front-runner, second. 

The weather had turned to overcast over the last hour or so locally and as they approached the gate for the start for the 7th it began to spit rain.  This was a Maiden Special for 3yo turf runners and I liked Todd Pletchers Cordero.  This guy had debuted for Wesley Ward at the internationally prestigious Royal Ascot meet and made his first North American start was at Saratoga - both of which said to me his connections thought highly of him.  Since that August try at the Spa he'd been moved to the Todd Pletcher barn.  I've seen - and said - many times that horses making their first start after moving into Pletcher's barn run big.  My only concern was that with the end of the Championship meet Pletcher had shipped out his "first team."  Was this one good enough to beat the locals?  I thought so and doubled the bet.  Cordero broke sharply and immediately took command.  He was still in front as they turned for home and raced by me.  He was well in hand and extended his lead to the wire!

Walked inside and they were in the gate for Santa Anita's 2nd.  War Academy typically ran Beyers in the mid-90's, fast enough to be a daylight winner here.  But the Bob Baffert trainee had not raced since July 4!  Fortunately Baffert is a master with long layoff types.  And Warrior Academy had a sharp bullet work for today.  The gates opened and he was quickly on the lead.  But as they spun out of the turn it looked like he was out of steam as a stalker collared him and looked to have all the momentum.  But instead jockey Martin Garcia was just waiting to downshift into another gear.......Warrior Academy re-broke and was LONG gone.  The next play was here locally and we were back on the turf.  As I looked outside it wasn't raining anymore....it was POURING!  Just the forecast of potential rain today would have been enough for Calder to have taken all the turf races off, but here at Gulfstream, we don't roll that way.  The course was downgraded to yielding, but in spite of the rain we were still on the turf.  Majestic Breeze looked like a standout to me.  Of the 48 races run on the grass by the rest of the field, BOTH of his last two numbers easily were faster.  Of the 91 career figures earned by the rest of the field, turf or dirt, the last two numbers were better than 90 of them....one lone dirt figure was better than his last two.  I tripled the bet.  'Breeze tracked the leaders - at least that is what the announcer said because if you watch the replay you'll see (rather won't see) what I saw....nothing!  It was POURING down rain so hard.  At the furlong marker he'd caught the leader and edged clear through the final sixteenth.  He paid a fair $4.20 and so I cashed for over $30!  The next selection on my sheet was the second "BEST" of the day to go down.  Conquest Titan had won stakes races at Woodbine and then hit the Triple Crown trail.  Today he was coming off a layoff with a sizzling bullet work in a nw2x allowance spot.  His best efforts looked much better than anything the rest of these allowance quality runners could do.  But after dueling to the top of the stretch he stopped on a dime and was a well beaten last of six.  Slid over one television screen and they were approaching the gate at Tampa.  No time to cry over spilled milk at the races!  Here's what I wrote about the 9th at Tampa, ".....Could be a nice surprise package for top rider Gallardo for a barn that's 27% on turf to dirt move like this....Gallardo 21% for the Gratis barn...."  Pure Bliss, my pick, was a huge 8/1 in the program!  I doubled the bet.  He was stalking the leaders, but as they raced around the turn he was running evenly.  I did think to myself that if he tried to go wide there was no way he'd win, but he might have a chance IF he went up the rail and a seam opened and IF the front runner would shorten stride.  It was as though the racing gods heard my thoughts because that is exactly was Gallardo did - guided Pure Bliss to the wood, and persevered.  Then at the furlong marker the leader was visually tiring.  Pure Bliss surged and caught him with a hundred yards to go, then edged clear. 

It wasn't 8/1, but it was a healthy 3/1 price and I was cashing for $40!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  My eighth win of the day!  As I was watching the Tampa race I had lost track of time for my next race, the 9th at Pimlico.  My pick was Lil Honey Badger in an allowance event without conditions going a mile and  sixteenth.  I looked at the Pimlico screen and I saw the #1 horse about ten lengths clear of the field with about 100 yards to go - who is that?  Lil Honey Badger!  OH YEAH!  When I watched the replay I saw that my analysis was spot on - he'd failed as the odds-on choice at this distance here at Pimlico last time out, but it was over a muddy track.  I projected that with a fast track he would easily redeem himself,, and indeed he did...right to the front and L-O-N-G gone!  Another $20 on my ninth win.  I was disappointed yet again in a stakes race when Wicked Strong was an even, but non-threatening 3rd at 3/5 in the Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct.  About five minutes before the Tampa race I'd checked the monitor for Santa Anita's 4th, a six and one-half furlong turf sprint.  I saw that there was 24 minutes to post, but noticed nothing was moving.  I kept looking and nothing - the screen was frozen.  I kept checking and tried my phone to get online, but nothing.  I moved on and figured I'd know later.....so I win at Tampa and I win at Pimlico, so I look over at the Santa Anita monitor and now we've got a live feed - it's showing the winning jockey shaking hands with the owners and on the bottom of the screen, there's the numbers and listed on top:  #11-Hot Market, MY PICK!  He'd been down the hill twice and had run well, in spite of hopping at the start and then breaking behind the field.  It looked like there were several speed types to set up his late kick and jockey Rafael Bejarano is a good closing rider.  When I watched the replay Hot Market began his move as they approached the cross-over the dirt surface to the stretch run, but was seven-wide.  If I had not known he was the winner I would not have had much hope because with a furlong to go he was still seventh of ten. But then he accelerated and in a perfectly timed ride was just up in time!  The rain had stopped and the sun was now shining at Gulfstream as the horses marched to the gate on the "good" turf course for the Grade 3 Miami Mile.  My top pick was Grand Tito.  He'd faced FAR better in four graded events over the winter and the competition was much less today.  But my fear was if he was over the top after the winter of hard racing.  But he looked best on paper.  He stalked the pace and moved strongly to the lead into the stretch.  He was clear by daylight halfway home, but was nailed on the wire, second.  My plan had been to stay for the final at Gulfstream, the Powder Break with Grade 1 winner Discreet Marq.  But as I went to make my late bets I discovered she was scratched.  So I made the decision to film my last video segments and head for home to get home in time to watch the Churchill Down races. 

April 25 Video Highlights:  Part 1

 



Today was my son Jeff's birthday so I was very happy to chat with him nearly the entire ride home from Gulfstream.  One side story - I always take the backstreets home from Gulfstream to avoid the traffic, but today after the monsoon rains the streets were really, REALLY flooded.  As I drove though them in my little sports car that sits low to the road the water level was well up past the halfway mark of my tires....very concerned I'd stall out, but I made it :)  Once I got home I opened up the recording from HRTV and fast forwarded to the finale from Woodbine.  In the 10th, a six and one-half furlong maiden special sprint I went with Town Called Malice.  He was last seen when second, beaten a neck with a field-best Beyer figure of 67 while more than double-digit lengths clear of his closest rivals on the Beyer scale.  And he was six clear of the show horse that day (and that one was more tan seven clear of the rest of the field!).  A sequence o strong works for a barn that wins with 32% off of layoffs cinched it for me.  I was even more confident when I noted that this one was Woodbine Handicapper Jim Bannon's "BEST" of the day.  I was surprised with all of those facts as I watched the replay that Town Called Malice was 2/1 and NOT the favorite.  He was fourth heading into the lane and was looking to move wide, but the front-runner kept drifting out, so top rider Patrick Husbands dove inside and split horses, accelerated, and caught the leader, then moved on by to score! 

 

I'd doubled the bet so the $6.20 payoff netted me well over $30!  I fast forwarded and arrived at the Churchill opener.  It was a claiming event for $25K going a one-turn mile.  My pick, Flatermejim had been second twice at Oaklawn, but against $32K company.  He should improve on the drop I thought.  As they hit the far turn he was last, but as soon as he hit the turn he began to pick off horses easily and as the field turned for home he'd caught the leaders.  The sprint for home turned into a winning romp as Flattermejim drew off as MUCH the best, justifying his 4/5 odds.  My triple investment pick in the second was an even 4th at 3/5, then I was 3rd again at 3/5 in the third.  In Santa Anita's Grade 3 Last Tycoon my pick Big John B was the 9/5 favorite.  He trailed to the far turn and when Mike Smith asked him for run.....no response, 8th and last.  Sigh.......But in the fifth I was back into the winner's circle with Thunder Rollin' in a nw2L 7 furlong sprint.  He came from off the pace, weaving his way through the field but was still four back of the leader as they straightened for the run to the wire.  By the furlong pole the leader was weakening and 'Thunder was full of momentum and blew by to score going away at a nice $6.60.  My "BEST" under the Twin Spires was in the featured William Walker as backed 3/5 favorite, the unbeaten Blofeld from the Todd Pletcher barn.  He had won not one but TWO Grade 2 events and the rest of the field had never even hit the board in a graded event - some had never even tried a graded race.  But after tracking the leaders to the stretch he came up empty, third - completing a "sweep" of the stakes races for the day, a "perfect" 0-for-4.  I was working on my video when I went to the computer to check where we were at Churchill and the field was making their way towards the gate in the 8th.  This had been scheduled for the turf and when I made my bets at Gulfstream I was told my horse was scratched; and I had discovered when I got home it was because of rain earlier in the day taking the race off the inner grass course.  So as I looked at the field it occurred to me - in my analysis I had noted that if the race came off the grass then Main Track Only Majestic Harbor would be the pick.  I looked at the screen, three minutes to post, I still had time!  I quickly submitted a triple bet on the even-money favorite.  He too trailed down the backstretch, but as they hit the turn, like Flattermejim, he began picking off horses.  He swept to the lead entering the lane and was gone.  HORRAY, wait.......INQUIRY & Objection - against ME!  SERIOUSLY?  I watched the replay and while it was true the rider of the third place horse had taken up as I swept by, I'd never left my path and had NOT caused the trouble.  They looked at it for several minutes and then the decision........NO CHANGE!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I only had one selection left, but it wasn't until the eleventh and final race of the night after eleven pm.  But I worked on recording the races from earlier in the day and was still up when Todd Pletcher saddled Don'tforgetabout me for this Maiden Special event going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The crowd saw the same thing I did.....he was a $725K Keeneland sales grad who was a good fourth when debuting in an ULTRA KEY race, then was a best-of-the-rest second at Gulfstream in site of a troubled start.  That race earned him a field-best 85.  A run back to that and he was long gone.  The gates opened and John Velazquez quickly had him in front down the backstretch; he carried the lead through the turn, and as they hit the top of the lane the field began to move in ..... but Velazquez had yet to ask, and when he did, Don'tforgetabout me opened up and cruised home! 

 

I had gone in "prime-time" on the final bet of the day so I was cashing for nearly $30.  The final numbers showed me with a 50% win rate with fifteen winners from thirty selections.  It doesn't get much better than that! 

 

April 25:  Video Highlights - Part 2

   

Charles Town Classic Day

April 18:  Charles Town Classic Day

Today marked the first time I'd been back to Gulfstream since the highly successful Florida Derby Day at the end of the winter racing season.  And the day could not have started off better.  The first selection on the sheet came from Charles Town in West Virginia in the Coin Collector Stakes.  Hear the Chatter appeared a very likely winner as she'd built a 7/5-1-1 overall record including a perfect 4-for-4 record in state-bred events, like this.  Included in those four wins were three stakes scores.  When I walked into the simulcast area with twenty minutes to post time she was hammered down to 1/9.  I decided to up the bet from a double investment to a triple play.  The race was a short 4 1/2 furlong super sprint with a short run to the first turn.  Right out of the gate Hear the Chatter burst to the front, but was quickly joined by another speedster.  Considering she was coming off a layoff dating back to December I thought this could compromise her chances to finish well, but when they hit the turn she had eased clear without being asked for her best.  As heads turned for home she was clear by half a furlong and despite tiring somewhat was easily clear for the win!  Whooo hooooo!  1-for-1 to kick off the Saturday action.  Less than ten minutes later and it was post time at Gulfstream.  This was an allowance test for turf sprinters going 5 1/2 furlongs.  Jersey Girl figured to take a lot of betting action, and I'd had her during the Championship Meeting.  But today I thought she was over her head.  Instead I liked Katie's Kiss.  Two back in her first try over the turf she was a sharp second in an AOC nw1x $75K in a fast time, where the winner came right back to win.  Then in her last she hopped at the start and was quickly eliminated in the same kind of contest.  Now that the summer meeting has started the competition is sharply lesser, and that was evidenced by today's conditions with the race being written as an AOC nw1x $25K.  I thought that darkened form might lead to a more than fair price, and sure enough she left the gate at 2/1 odds.  She pressed the leader through the far turn, made her move and was clear into the stretch.  Late runners were coming, but it was too little, too late - my first win at Gulfstream and my second in a row! 

 

The generous price of $6.80 led to a payoff of more than $15 on a minimum investment.  I lost the next two - at 3/5 and 2/1 when both ran third without threatening. 

 

But the third win of the day was a key score.  If you've read the intro on my racing home page for this "Road To The Breeders' Cup" project you've read that instead of having a "Summer Racing Project" featuring a focus on a summer track (past editions featured handicapping daily cards at Churchill, Monmouth, Saratoga, and Del Mar) followed by a "Fall Championship Season" project highlighted with races building up to the Breeders' Cup, I am combining the two seasons.  Part of that is because of the near month-long European River Cruise which wipes out a big chunk of the summer.  But the main reason for this is to tie in a daily handicapping project that features Woodbine in Toronto, Canada which will be highlighted by a visit to that track for the first time as I plan to be there for one of their big event days, the Woodbine Mile Day in September.  As I do with any racing project I lean on Progressive Handicapping and author Jim Mazur to get their inside look at the track and it's trainers, especially the "40% Club."  I've had a great deal of success with these in previous projects so I planned to buy that book for this summer.  You see, Woodbine opened last weekend and runs through November.  So my plan, much like last year when I handicapped Monmouth, is to use the book for plays on the weekends (and any other racing day I handicap) but to only do a limited daily handicapping project - for this project starting in August once we return from the cruise.  Well, Mazur has a relationship with Woodbine and he has offered the "Woodbine Handicapper" for free to any player that registers on the Woodbine web page - a value of $29.99.  And I did not know until I went to download it last week, but this year Mazur was also offering the "Blue Chip Trainer Angles" as a free download which would retail for $99.  This is a long build-up I know, but this all leads to the win here in the second at Woodbine.  I had finished handicapping seven tracks for today's visit to the races, and even printed off my selections when I realized Woodbine was running, so I got their pp's and handicapped each race with a focus on using these documents.  Sure enough, right here in the second is my first Woodbine 40% Club play of the season.  Trainer Mark Fournier was listed in the Blue Chip angles as winning an amazing 55% of his races when three conditions come together:  (1) a claiming event with a price tag below $40K; (2) a runner turning back in distance; and (3) the horse is ridden by jockey Diego Garcia.  The second at Woodbine was an $8K claiming sprint (1-check)  going five furlongs where Alpha Away was entered by Fournier having last run at six furlongs (2-check) with Diego Garcia listed to ride (3-CHECK!).  I was disappointed she was listed as the 8/5 program favorite, but a winner is a winner.  Surprisingly the crowd did NOT make Alpha Away the favorite!  Instead they hammered down the #2 to odds-on status.  That one went straight to the front but Alpha Away was pressing her on the outside, and as they spun out of the far turn she made her move.  The favorite dug in but Alpha Away was edging closer with each stride and inside the 16th pole it was a head up/head down duel.  In the final fifty yards she was bobbing in front and though it was officially a photo, I knew I'd won.  The generous price of $7.20 led to nearly $40 payoff!  At this point I'd been at Gulfstream for about an hour and already had three wins from five selections, and two of the three wins were the only two added investments and the other had been a nice priced score.  This is shaping up as a very nice day!

 

I missed with Drimmer in the second at Gulfstream in spite of the fact that his speed figures towered over his rivals.  Instead he ran to his 0-for-11 record at even money.  At Charles Town in the Caixa Electronica I thought veteran Immortal Eyes would wake up, but he was a late running fourth at 2/1.  The next on the sheet was the first of only three graded stakes on my sheet, and my BET of the DAY in New York.  It was the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap.  La Verdad is a super quick filly and would have been a consideration as a prime time play under any circumstance, but today she faced only three rivals and NONE of them wanted the front end!  Looked to be L-O-N-G gone easily.  The gates opened and she went right to the front, but much to my surprise the 6/1 longshot went right with here as they battled through a swift :22 and change opening quarter.  But as they moved through the turn the longshot easily gave way as La Verdad continued to sprint at breakneck speed, stopping the teletimer at :44.4.  She was daylight clear into the lane and that was the end of that.  The other two began to make their move, but they were making up no ground at all.  Easily to the wire!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

 

Considering the short field and the pace scenario I thought that the $2.60 payoff was very big.  And with my $30 WIN bet I cashed for nearly $40.  I ran third in back-to-back events with very short prices next.  Silver Or Gold at Charles Town was the lone 2x winner in a nw3L event - an obvious play, even at 1/1.  But he couldn't make up any ground through the lane.  Then at Keeneland Fortuitous was 7/5 after a best-of-the-rest second at Tampa.  She was outrun early and I'd argue that my nemesis rider, Julian Leparoux put him too far back as he passed tired horses belatedly to be third.  But I came right back to cash my fifth winning ticket on the grass in New York.  Yes, with the coming of April racing has moved off the inner track at Aqueduct and the turf course is open again.  Market Outlook had run three straight races with mid-to-low 80 Beyers which stamped him a legitimate win candidate.  But he had recency on his side, while his main competition had not run in months.  As they turned for home he still had work to do.  At the furlong pole, and in the clear on the outside he hit his best stride and blew by the two leaders to score decisively at 3/5 odds.  Cashed for over $15 with my double bet.  Disappointment followed over the next hour and five picks.  My co-best of the day at Charles Town was Down Town Allen who had won TWENTY-FOUR races at this track, including a dozen races at the seven furlong distance of The Original Gold Stakes today.  AND she was working on an eight race win streak dating back to August 2013.  Duh.  But as they ran down the backstretch she pulled up and didn't finish the race.  Man, you can just never figure on such things and it's a constant reminder that NOTHING is a given in racing.  Eddy Gourmet was a prohibitive 3/5 in The Geisha at Pimlico - where I will be a month from today for the Preakness!  She tracked the pace to the top of the stretch and then was empty, fading to fifth.  Back to Charles Town where Lucy's Bob Boy was the 3/5 chalk in The Confucius Say.  He'd won 23 starts at the West Virginia oval, and in seventeen starts against today's rivals he was 17/15-1-0.  As I wrote, "...to be fair, the two losses were both to the same runner in here...."  Prophetic as that one took them gate to wire and I was second.  Sigh......Next was the fifth locally, a 7 1/2 furlong turf race for Maiden Specials.  Dujac was the 7/5 favorite and opened up into the lane.....caught in deep stretch to be second  And at Woodbine the five race skein continued when Thebarberofbrazil ran an even third at even money in another Maiden Special.  But to my credit, I held to the betting plan in the next which was my "BET of the DAY" at Pimlico - The Stormy Blues Stakes for three-year-olds sprinting five furlongs on the turf.  My top choice was the likely favorite, Lady Shipman.  This filly had debuted on the dirt with a non-threatening loss.  But then she was moved to the turf.  She rattled off three straight daylight scores (one on synthetic).  Her first win, at Gulfstream Park West came by ELEVEN widening lengths over that turf course; then she moved into nw1x allowance company at the Championship Meet at Gulfstream where she aired by four widening lengths, going wire to wire in a dazzling :44.3 for the half mile while under pressure.  And her last was her first stakes try when she sprinted six furlongs in the OBS Sprint.  I've found for many years that runners who win at these OBS Championship races often come back with big efforts.  The fact she had stretched out to six furlongs AND had rattled off pace figures of :21.3, :44.1, and a final time in a sizzling 1:08.4 while drawing off by eight lengths and change told me that she could face pace pressure and still win.  She looked to have company on the front end today, but I thought she was the quickest of the quick.  She broke a step slowly, but before the first quarter mile pole she was dueling on the front end.  As they hit the far turn she began to edge clear and as she opened up on the field race track announcer Dave Rodman called out she run an opening quarter in :21.3, and a half in :44.4.  As they turned for home she was in hand for local rider Eduado Nunez and So Fla conditioner Kathleen O'Connell.  I am hopeful she will run back in a stakes on either Black Eyed Susans Day or Preakness Day when I am at the Baltimore track. 

 

The payoff was a generous $3.00 so I cashed for $30 with my prime time play!  I missed with Dr. Sport at 6/1 at Woodbine when the odds-on favorite wired the field.  At Keeneland I went against one of my favorite sprinters, Delauney.  This guy has scored many times for me, including in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs three years ago on Derby Day when I thought he might be the best sprinter in the country.  Most recently though, he was odds-on in the Kenner Stakes at the Fair Grounds when we were visiting New Orleans.  He laid over that field and was my "BEST" of the day, only to run second.  Today he was at Keeneland, which unlike the Fair Grounds, is NOT his favorite track, and he was dropping into allowance company.  Both of these were negatives to me, especially in light of his recent disappointment.  I went instead with Todd Pletcher's rising star, Rock Fall.  He'd won three of four starts with sharp Beyers.  Granted his numbers were not as good as those earned by Delauney, but I thought he'd decline and Rock Fall would improve.  Rock Fall was the betting favorite as they went through the post parade, but Delauney caught him on the board and they were co-favorites at 4/5 as they loaded into the gate.  Then some kind of technical glitch occurred at Gulfstream.  The screen froze.  I tried going to different TV monitors and even tried opening the race on my phone....no dice.  Later when I went to download the race for my highlight video even the replay was blank.  The screen came back on with the final odds posted.  And then the run through the stretch came up....and there was Rock Fall running away in hand!  I am a WINNER!  When the replay came on the screen (which makes me wonder why the replay wasn't available online) Deluaney was compromised when he stumbled badly out of the gate.  He rushed up to press Rock Fall but had nothing for the stretch run.  My seventh win of the day!  Next up turned out to be the "price score of the day," and it came at Woodbine.  The key to picking this winner however goes to ME personally, not to the Woodbine handicapping aids I'd downloaded.  The 7th at Woodbine was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  My top choice was Breaking Lucky, and here's why.  Going back to the New Orleans trip that I mentioned earlier.....on the Sunday following the trip to the Fair Grounds my "Bet of the Day" at Gulfstream was Todd Pletcher's rising star Khozan and he dominated that allowance field and I proclaimed him a likely Florida Derby winner in his next start.  Well, he was injured prior to the Derby, but on that Sunday he had exited a MSW win where he drew off by some 11 widening lengths over a horse called Wisecracker.  He had come back to be second in his next start, but that was to another talented colt, and then he'd won his maiden at Keeneland on their opening weekend card two weeks ago. 

 

Wisecracker's runner-up effort leading to that win had seen him score over Breaking Lucky.  That race was Breaking Lucky's debut.  Now he was back to his trainer's home barn at Woodbine and I thought his placing in that KEY Gulfstream race was the secret to his chances today.  He was listed at 9/2 in the program.  He tracked the 4/5 leader through the turn, but I could tell, the rider was ready to run by that one!  For the first 16h of a mile of the stretch the favorite, and a closer on the outside threatened to make a race of it, but once they passed the furlong pole Breaking Lucky lengthened his stride and was LONG GONE!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  Best of all, the price was a generous $8.60 so I was cashing for nearly $45!  The next five races all gave me hope, only to disappoint.  Seeking Alpha at Keeneland exited the same race as Breaking Lucky, but he was trying the turf today at Keeneland - belated rally at 2/1 to be 4th.  Curve of Stones was a non-threatening fifth without a rallying bid at Tampa at 9/2.  Istanford set the pace into the stretch of The Dahalia at Pimlico on the turf, and weakend to be 4th at 9/5.  Tennessee Whiskey stalked and took the lead into the stretch at Gulfstream only to be caught late, third.  Executive Allure was my "BEST" at Woodbine, another Woodbine 40% Club play in the Grade 3 Whimscal.  She looked loose on the lead into the lane, but had no late kick...weakened to be third at 2/1.  I was finally back into the winner's circle, this with a stakes race at Charles Town.  It was the Robert Hilton Memorial for 3yo going a two-turn seven furlongs.  Control Stake had on two of his last three, and the lone loss in that sequence had been when finishing behind not one but two stakes winners.  My main concern was that speed had been the main way to win today in West Virginia and I knew this guy would come from off the pace.  He was tracking the leaders as they approached the far turn, then he made his move and blew by the field!  The double investment netted me a cool twenty beans!  I had handicapped the Santa Anita card for the late afternoon races and had only found two races that I had an interest in.  Ironically they were the two features, and the "best" of those came in the 4th, The La Puenta. This was a nine-furlong grass test for three-year-olds.  The dilemma here was that NONE of these colts had ever travelled this far previously, so at first glance it appeared to be a "pass" for a betting spot.  But the closer I looked at Papacoolpapacool, the more I liked him.  Three things led me to make him the play:  first, his speed figures in his last TWO races were superior to all those run by today's rivals except one.  And that lone effort that earned a competitive number came when the rival was chasing HIM last time out.  Second, in both of his last two starts he had drawn off through the stretch which indicated to me that he could probably get the added ground today.  Third, and finally, if anyone could maximize his run it would be Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens.  And all of this proved true.  Papacoolpapacool was kept on the rail from the start all the way through the far turn by Stevens, saving valuable ground.  No need to panic and swing five wide into the lane as Stevens patiently waited, and sure enough, as the leader hugged the rail into the stretch the three pressing him floated out wide and a seam opened.  Stevens merely shook the rails and 'Papa kissed the field goodbye under a hand ride! 

 

He paid a more-than-fair $3.00 and I was cashing for over $20 with my TENTH win (and fifth stakes) of the day!  I missed again at Gulfstream when Little Miss Julia was 6th at 3/1 and then at Woodbine when 2013 Champion Canadian Sprinter Phil's Dream rated into the stretch as the 3/5 favorite, but was outfinished......2nd.  And at Charles Town Flattering Bea went off at 2/1 in the Sugar Maple and was loose on the lead turning for home, but was run down by one of the few horses to close through the lane - figures, eh?  I picked up my final win in the finale at Aqueduct in an exciting race.  Fundamental had been out only once and in that turf debut she had been checked not once but twice and STILL was only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths.  With top NY rider Irad Ortiz on board she figured to be the favorite.  She was at 4/5.  She looked to be gearing up 3-wide through the far turn but when they turned for home the run from the top of the stretch to the furlong pole she was just looking around and running evenly.  Really?  Where's the late bid?  Then suddenly as though she said, "Oh yeah, there's a race to win!" she stepped on the gas and blew by the four horses around her to win by half a length!  Unbelievable!  Thought for sure my chances were sunk!  HORRAY!  For the final race of the day that I was watching, my BET of the DAY I went upstairs on the upper level of Gulfstream.  It was the day's key race, the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic featuring the best horse in North America, Shared Belief.  He was the OBVIOUS choice and towered over the field.  There were only two questions to be answered - it was his first time out of California and it was a three-turn race around the 7-furlong configuration there.  But, his career by and large had featured blow out wins when facing new tracks, new surfaces, and new distances.  His talent had yet to be tapped and I knew he'd win.  I even went so far as to set up a photo op with the simulcast TV in the background as I flashed a "six finger" sign to indicate my sixth win of the day.  All I needed was the win.  He broke a bit slowly and while that wasn't good, I knew he was too good for these.  But as they hit the backstretch something went wrong and he was pulled up.  That's not the way I saw this day ending :(  He seems to be ok as of this writing, but we'll see.  So for the day that guaranteed a red line for the profit on the day, but statistically I'd won with 11 of 34 for a solid 30% and change.... and I'd had a good time (until the end!).  Next weekend it looks like the ONLY graded stakes on the calendar (because it will be the weekend prior to Derby weekend!) is HERE at Gulfstream with the Grade 3 Miami Mile!

 

April 18 Video Review

 

 

Oaklawn Racing Weekend

Friday April 10:  Apple Blossom Day

Kim and I flew into Arkansas on Thursday night, and before the adventure even began, it was truly AN ADVENTURE!  The first sign of our soon-to-be-tale-of-travel was when we arrived at the gate at Fort Lauderdale International and our flight was delayed by 20 minutes.  But no worries, we had a layover of more than an hour; and we made it up in the air to actually arrive "on time."  But when we got on the plane to leave Dallas for a 45 minute connecting flight we taxied to the runway and sat for about 20 minutes......what's going on?  Then the captain came on and said there was some weather and outbound flights were being spaced out and hopefully we could take off soon.  Another 15 minutes and they said there was "good news and bad news."  First, we could take off "soon," but we'd have to file new flight plans and if we couldn't get out soon we'd have to go back to the gate and get re-fueled.  We taxied back to the gate soon and sat.  It was about an hour and we should have been landing when we finally took off.  We headed to Little Rock and the weather was not too bad.  We landed about two hours late and as soon as we arrived at the luggage area our bags came out!  And no wait for the car.  But then the drive......oh my!  The first half hour, not so bad on the Interstate in rain.  But the last 45 minutes - in off-and-on driving rain on a mountain, winding road......very "exciting!"  We arrived about 10 pm in Hot Springs and stopped for Wendy's and then checked in.  The room, spectacular - even at night.  But the next morning........

I had told Kim before we left that I had hoped that the New Orleans Bed & Breakfast would be really cool for our Fair Grounds Racing Adventure and it had exceeded our expectations, but that I thought this one would be even better.  And we were NOT disappointed.  Just loved the view, loved the room, loved the breakfast.  Just amazing.  We went out to a woodlands garden and walked for two hours in the early afternoon and that was amazing.  Finally we were back to change and headed out to Oaklawn around 3:30 for the 5:00 running of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom.  There was no parking so we parked across the street where we were guided into the narrowest of spaces on an abandoned lot - never would have made it with the low clearance of my little sports car, but we were in a Toyota Camry so it was all good.  We toured around Oaklawn - pretty nice, liked the "oldness" of it, but didn't like that besides the apron there is no outdoor area, even the paddock is inside of the main building.  We hit the gift shop and I bought to racing pins and a polo shirt.  Soon it was approaching time for the Santa Lucia Stakes at Santa Anita, which was going to go off minutes before the Apple Blossom.  In the Santa Lucia 2013 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Beholder was making her 2015 debut.  Ironically the original plan of her connections had been to run in the Apple Blossom!  She stalked the pace to the far turn and just blew the field away in little more than a workout - the girl's still got it!  I knew before we event took from Ft. Lauderdale that the "success" of the racing this weekend fell squarely on three bets - I was pounding Beholder with a $50 WIN bet......mission accomplished, Part 1! 

I was watching the race on twinspires.com on my phone they broke from the gate in the Apple Blossom where I liked Untapable.  Unlike Beholder, who was making her 2015 debut, the 2014 Breeders' Cup Champion - Untapable - was making her second start.  She had debuted here at Oaklawn on March 14 in the Grade 3 Azeri and had left the gate at a prohibitive 1/9.  The concern that day, in addition to the layoff - had not been out since the Breeders' Cup win - was that the weather was miserable, and Untapable had never run over a wet or sloppy track.  And because the weather had been unsettled in the last week or so, trainer Steve Asmussen had not had a chance to work her over the surface as he decided it was better to get her works in on time, over a predictable track at her winter home base of the Fair Grounds that get travel plans messed up or throw her training schedule off.  I did not have any concerns about any of that, other than the wet track I thought might make the race a little closer than if the track were fast.  But as it turned out that day, these two factors did contribute to the outcome, but not as much as one other factor......there had been two front-runners in the field, but with the bad weather one scratched.  So as Untapable had left the post in March she was over an unfamiliar track for the first time, coming off an extended layoff, on a sloppy track for the first time AND chasing a lone front runner!  Still when they hit the far turn she looked ready to go by but couldn't - second.  So today the question was, did her loss in the Azeri indicate that she simply would not be the same at age 4 - a la Rachel Alexandra - or was it simply a combination of all those factors creating the "perfect storm" - literally - for the upset?  I was convinced it was the latter, and I was ALL IN today - another $50 WIN bet, the second "must win" of the weekend.

 

 

Untapable had pressed the lone speed in the Azeri, but today she was in a tracking fourth position as they hit the far turn.  There were three of them pressing each other and it all seemed to be the perfect scenario if "she was back."  As soon as they hit the turn jockey John Velazquez gave her the cue and she came storming up on the outside just like the "old Untapable."  I knew I was about to see a show!  As they spun into the stretch Untapable was clear on the lead.  Velazquez wasn't coasting, but he also wasn't imploring her for her utmost as she raced by me where Kim and I stood on the upper level of the apron/stands.  Mission accomplished, Part 2!  It was interesting to me that the whole plan for this weekend had begun in earnest when I got on the plane after my 2013 Saratoga visit for the Travers and was sitting beside a couple who were from Hot Springs and told me what a great place it was to visit, so I had wanted to come for the Apple Blossom.  It wasn't until after I had begun making plans that I realized that not only was it Apple Blossom weekend, but it was Arkansas Derby weekend!  Two for the price of one!  As Untapable was headed back to the winners' circle I checked the results of the Beholder race and noted that she had paid $2.60 - I'd collect $65 on her.  And then the prices came up for the Apple Blossom - $2.40......collect $60.  So tomorrow I'd start the day with $125 in cashed tickets as I closed out a great day TWO-for-TWO! 

 

 

 

April 11:  Arkansas Derby Day 

 

Arkansas Derby Day dawned as a BEAUTIFUL morning with crisp temperatures in the upper 40s and highs predicted in the low 70s.  Such a change from the extended forecast from a week ago when it was 80% chance of thunderstorms!  After another superb breakfast at the Lookoutpoint Inn (where we were staying) we enjoyed the view during the morning and then left around 11 for the track.  With a first post time of 12:30 and the stakes races not starting until nearly 4 pm I KNEW we'd be able to park on site.  Within two miles of the facility while we sat in traffic I knew that wasn't going to happen!  We got past Oaklawn and figured to park on the "other side" but there was no parking in that direction.  So we headed about two blocks past Central Ave. (the main drag where the track is) and found a guy selling limited spots in his front yard for only $10.  And it only a block and a half from the track!  The first thing we did - for Kim - was head into the attached casino and applied to become "players."  For signing up and having my racing program we got $10 free dollars for Kim to use at the casino.  When the gentleman told us only I would get it (because we only had one program) he told us if we BOTH told him an email then we BOTH would receive another $10.....for a total of $30!  Which, duh, we did....and then it wasn't a voucher to use in a slot machine, it was a voucher to take to he cashier and she gave us three crisp $10 bills!  One came right back to me (for $10 I had spotted Kim and she lost yesterday).  And then she stayed and played before the races.  She wasn't there long before she turned her first $10 into $26!  It's going to be a good day!  (Little did I know!!!!)

 

It was a huge crowd today - all decked out in their Derby best, well some of them (see at the bottom) as we were.   And the longer the day went, the more crowded it became - I later read it was estimated at 67,500 fans were in attendance.  I missed in the 2nd (passed the first where my top choice was off the board, but my second choice won at 6/1).  My pick, World Elite, pressed the issue to the stretch at 2/1 and then weakened.  Passed the third (where my top pick was scratched).  IN the fourth I like Copse who left the gate at 5/2 odds.  He'd ben beaten last time out by the co-third choice in the race today, but I didn't see that happening again because the barn of THAT horse was 1-for-31!  Copse went to the front and dueled to the far turn with a 10/1 shot.  Seemed to have plenty left and opened up turning for home, but was quickly collared by the favorite and they dueled to the wire where he was narrowly beaten a head.  In the fifth I thought the field was W-E-A-K!  Kim remarked when looking over the program I'd made for us that I only mentioned my top choice, Roll Tide Roll.  I told her that he was a first-time starter and the rest of the field had already proven they didn't want to win.  The crowd bet him down from the unreasonable 30/1 DRF odds - like what goes on in that linemaker's head? - to the 8/5 favorite slot.  He rode the rails to the far turn, swung out and blew by the field to WIN!  My first win on Derby Day!  I had Kim take the photo to the left, figuring I'd only do "congratulatory videos" after stakes wins!  The sixth was a nw1x allowance-optional claiming vent going a mile and a sixteenth.  Aces High was hovering around 2/1 and 5/2 for the majority of the betting, and I'd noted he was one of the top picks of the day by the guy in the local paper.  I liked him on the basis of a FOURTEEN length romp in his MSW debut earning big 99 figure three back.  He was a good third in an allowance try two back and then earned a 91 last time out when second by a nose.  He went right to the front and was under pressure from the get-go (just like Copse).  But as they raced through the lane he would NOT surrender any ground and held off the field safely by a diminishing length and a half.  Without my glasses on I thought he'd been 2/1 at post time.  I went up into the betting area to look at the monitor for the payoffs and that's when I saw it......he'd been an amazing 7/2 at post time and paid $9.20!  I went to cash my two winning tickets and I was cashing for $36 - suddenly I am ahead for the day.  The next two bets were in stakes races and I was upping the bet.  The first was the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap for older horses.  On the day Untapable was upset in the Azeri, I'd cashed in the Grade 3 Razorback with Todd Pletcher's Race Day.  This guy had been third for me in the Grade 3 Hooper at Gulfstream, but had earned a third triple-digit Beyer that day.  The narrow in in the Razorback earned him another one.  I thought he might be overbet, but in looking at the field he was simply the best horse.  Of the 122 races run by his rivals, 119 of the figures could not match HIS LAST THREE!  And he had a bullet work since that last outing!  He was in the #1 post, but I figured John Velazquez would sit just behind two other front runners, track them to the turn and then run away.  He broke third, but as he saved all the ground he was on the front so Velazquez went on with it.  The pace was quick and the other speed horse would not go away as they dueled into the lane.  But then that, was that and Race Day blew through the stretch as Kim and I stood on the upper part of the outdoor apron/stands and cheered him home! 

 

He had been a very fair 6/5 favorite and I was now cashing for $22 with my THIRD winner in a row!  The next race was a six furlong sprint, The Instant Racing Stakes.  My pick was what figured to be the favorite, Promise Me Silver who was a perfect six-for-six AT six different tacks, including a win here!  Ironically that was the only race she was not a daylight winner.  I had been noticing all day that by and large speed was holding.  A couple of winners came from off the pace, but most had been either on or near the lead.  So as this group hit the far turn and Promise Me Silver was still in sixth AND five-wide, I had some concerns about my triple investment and my three-race winning streak.  But the rider asked and the acceleration this filly showed was amazing!  From sixth to third in a blink of an eye, and in spite of running about  multiple extra lengths into the stretch she was now on even terms with the leaders.  That lasted about 50 yards before, again in front of Kim and I, she found yet another gear and was L-O-N-G gone as easy as you please as she recorded her SEVENTH consecutive win! 

 

It was my fourth in a row, and second stakes in a row!  Promise Me Silver should have been 2/5 (as Jeff said when he called, where he also told me that he and Antoinette had put a bid in on a house!  Which they later got!).  But instead she was a juicy 4/5 and I was collecting another near-$30.  I went to cash these last two tickets and make "THE BET" on the Arkansas Derby!  This is the thing.....I'd known - as I said earlier - that the weekend would come down to how did Beholder, Untapable and finally American Pharaoh run?  And of the three, American Pharaoh was the big bet, and would be the shortest price of the three.  He, alone could ruin the weekend's bankroll numbers AND even if he won with the bet I anticipated making, I was NOT going to make a lot of money.  Still, as I've often said, it's as much a rush for me to be RIGHT and back up my convictions with the amount of money I bet.  EVERYONE said that American Pharaoh was their "BEST" of the day, like me.  But I just wasn't so keen on the fact that trainer Bob Baffert had said "We'll learn something about him today."  I took that to mean that either (a) if he could get the nine furlongs, because he'd never gone this far.....and today was not the day I wanted to "find out" if he could, I want the trainer to at least pretend he thinks he can get it!  Or, (b) today they were going to rate him off the lead thinking he'd never go wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Derby.  And I thought he could do that, but again today - with the bet I wanted to make - was not the time to find this out.  I stewed about it on Friday and most of the day today.  I re-read my comments and in the end I was pretty certain that he was simply way, WAY too good for these.  I told Kim after I'd made the bet that IF he lost it was not going to be because of something I should have seen.  So I made a bet for the 10th - and then THE BIG bet on the Derby.  In the Northern Spur Stakes I told Kim, as I'd written in my analysis, you just HAD to wonder why top trainer Bob Baffert would ship an 0-for-2 maiden, yes a MAIDEN, to run in this stakes race at Oaklawn......unless he "knew something."  Even more disconcerting was the crowd bet he maiden down to even money early on, in spite of facing winners, and a STAKES winner over this track (my bet).  As I coasted on the lead and the maiden was carried four wide through the turn I was certain I was the winner.  But no, the Baffert maiden ran right by horse like he was tied to the rail.  Wow......but hey, if I'm going to lose, better here than in the Derby.  I stayed out on the upper apron/grandstand area to wait for the Derby and the guys around me voiced what I thought......American Pharaoh was just going to dazzle today.  He opened at 1/9 and briefly went to 1/5, but was 1/9 when they left the gate.  Sure enough jockey Victor Espinoza let another runner run off with the lead.  OK, I thought, we are now going to find out if he's a legitimate star and can watch another one take them on without getting discouraged.  As they approached the far turn he was still two off the lead and I have to admit I was like, "c'mon, let's make our move!"  But then in the blink of an eye he was up to the leader, by the leader, and clear into the lane WITHOUT BEING ASKED!  And all this going a new distance for the first time.  It was a W-O-W performance. 

 

 

I mean he was sensational, dazzling, eye-catching.....just WOW.  I felt so fortunate that we'd gotten the chance to see him run live.  I am now so hopeful he wins the Derby and heads to Pimlico for the Preakness to try to make a run at history in the Triple Crown as I will be at the Preakness for my next racing adventure!  For the day at Oaklawn I had eight selections and I won with FIVE of them!  It was an amazing day at the races - and even better, on the biggest day of the season for Oaklawn, and EVEN BETTER at a racing venue / on a racing adventure to a place I'd never been before!  Kim had a good day and won at the casino as well, and the weekend has just been fabulous here in Hot Springs. 



 

 

Arkansas Derby Weekend - April 10/11 Recap

 

Arkansas Fashion PhotosOBVIOUSLY NOT as cool looking as us!