Charles Town Classic Day

April 18:  Charles Town Classic Day

Today marked the first time I'd been back to Gulfstream since the highly successful Florida Derby Day at the end of the winter racing season.  And the day could not have started off better.  The first selection on the sheet came from Charles Town in West Virginia in the Coin Collector Stakes.  Hear the Chatter appeared a very likely winner as she'd built a 7/5-1-1 overall record including a perfect 4-for-4 record in state-bred events, like this.  Included in those four wins were three stakes scores.  When I walked into the simulcast area with twenty minutes to post time she was hammered down to 1/9.  I decided to up the bet from a double investment to a triple play.  The race was a short 4 1/2 furlong super sprint with a short run to the first turn.  Right out of the gate Hear the Chatter burst to the front, but was quickly joined by another speedster.  Considering she was coming off a layoff dating back to December I thought this could compromise her chances to finish well, but when they hit the turn she had eased clear without being asked for her best.  As heads turned for home she was clear by half a furlong and despite tiring somewhat was easily clear for the win!  Whooo hooooo!  1-for-1 to kick off the Saturday action.  Less than ten minutes later and it was post time at Gulfstream.  This was an allowance test for turf sprinters going 5 1/2 furlongs.  Jersey Girl figured to take a lot of betting action, and I'd had her during the Championship Meeting.  But today I thought she was over her head.  Instead I liked Katie's Kiss.  Two back in her first try over the turf she was a sharp second in an AOC nw1x $75K in a fast time, where the winner came right back to win.  Then in her last she hopped at the start and was quickly eliminated in the same kind of contest.  Now that the summer meeting has started the competition is sharply lesser, and that was evidenced by today's conditions with the race being written as an AOC nw1x $25K.  I thought that darkened form might lead to a more than fair price, and sure enough she left the gate at 2/1 odds.  She pressed the leader through the far turn, made her move and was clear into the stretch.  Late runners were coming, but it was too little, too late - my first win at Gulfstream and my second in a row! 

 

The generous price of $6.80 led to a payoff of more than $15 on a minimum investment.  I lost the next two - at 3/5 and 2/1 when both ran third without threatening. 

 

But the third win of the day was a key score.  If you've read the intro on my racing home page for this "Road To The Breeders' Cup" project you've read that instead of having a "Summer Racing Project" featuring a focus on a summer track (past editions featured handicapping daily cards at Churchill, Monmouth, Saratoga, and Del Mar) followed by a "Fall Championship Season" project highlighted with races building up to the Breeders' Cup, I am combining the two seasons.  Part of that is because of the near month-long European River Cruise which wipes out a big chunk of the summer.  But the main reason for this is to tie in a daily handicapping project that features Woodbine in Toronto, Canada which will be highlighted by a visit to that track for the first time as I plan to be there for one of their big event days, the Woodbine Mile Day in September.  As I do with any racing project I lean on Progressive Handicapping and author Jim Mazur to get their inside look at the track and it's trainers, especially the "40% Club."  I've had a great deal of success with these in previous projects so I planned to buy that book for this summer.  You see, Woodbine opened last weekend and runs through November.  So my plan, much like last year when I handicapped Monmouth, is to use the book for plays on the weekends (and any other racing day I handicap) but to only do a limited daily handicapping project - for this project starting in August once we return from the cruise.  Well, Mazur has a relationship with Woodbine and he has offered the "Woodbine Handicapper" for free to any player that registers on the Woodbine web page - a value of $29.99.  And I did not know until I went to download it last week, but this year Mazur was also offering the "Blue Chip Trainer Angles" as a free download which would retail for $99.  This is a long build-up I know, but this all leads to the win here in the second at Woodbine.  I had finished handicapping seven tracks for today's visit to the races, and even printed off my selections when I realized Woodbine was running, so I got their pp's and handicapped each race with a focus on using these documents.  Sure enough, right here in the second is my first Woodbine 40% Club play of the season.  Trainer Mark Fournier was listed in the Blue Chip angles as winning an amazing 55% of his races when three conditions come together:  (1) a claiming event with a price tag below $40K; (2) a runner turning back in distance; and (3) the horse is ridden by jockey Diego Garcia.  The second at Woodbine was an $8K claiming sprint (1-check)  going five furlongs where Alpha Away was entered by Fournier having last run at six furlongs (2-check) with Diego Garcia listed to ride (3-CHECK!).  I was disappointed she was listed as the 8/5 program favorite, but a winner is a winner.  Surprisingly the crowd did NOT make Alpha Away the favorite!  Instead they hammered down the #2 to odds-on status.  That one went straight to the front but Alpha Away was pressing her on the outside, and as they spun out of the far turn she made her move.  The favorite dug in but Alpha Away was edging closer with each stride and inside the 16th pole it was a head up/head down duel.  In the final fifty yards she was bobbing in front and though it was officially a photo, I knew I'd won.  The generous price of $7.20 led to nearly $40 payoff!  At this point I'd been at Gulfstream for about an hour and already had three wins from five selections, and two of the three wins were the only two added investments and the other had been a nice priced score.  This is shaping up as a very nice day!

 

I missed with Drimmer in the second at Gulfstream in spite of the fact that his speed figures towered over his rivals.  Instead he ran to his 0-for-11 record at even money.  At Charles Town in the Caixa Electronica I thought veteran Immortal Eyes would wake up, but he was a late running fourth at 2/1.  The next on the sheet was the first of only three graded stakes on my sheet, and my BET of the DAY in New York.  It was the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap.  La Verdad is a super quick filly and would have been a consideration as a prime time play under any circumstance, but today she faced only three rivals and NONE of them wanted the front end!  Looked to be L-O-N-G gone easily.  The gates opened and she went right to the front, but much to my surprise the 6/1 longshot went right with here as they battled through a swift :22 and change opening quarter.  But as they moved through the turn the longshot easily gave way as La Verdad continued to sprint at breakneck speed, stopping the teletimer at :44.4.  She was daylight clear into the lane and that was the end of that.  The other two began to make their move, but they were making up no ground at all.  Easily to the wire!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

 

Considering the short field and the pace scenario I thought that the $2.60 payoff was very big.  And with my $30 WIN bet I cashed for nearly $40.  I ran third in back-to-back events with very short prices next.  Silver Or Gold at Charles Town was the lone 2x winner in a nw3L event - an obvious play, even at 1/1.  But he couldn't make up any ground through the lane.  Then at Keeneland Fortuitous was 7/5 after a best-of-the-rest second at Tampa.  She was outrun early and I'd argue that my nemesis rider, Julian Leparoux put him too far back as he passed tired horses belatedly to be third.  But I came right back to cash my fifth winning ticket on the grass in New York.  Yes, with the coming of April racing has moved off the inner track at Aqueduct and the turf course is open again.  Market Outlook had run three straight races with mid-to-low 80 Beyers which stamped him a legitimate win candidate.  But he had recency on his side, while his main competition had not run in months.  As they turned for home he still had work to do.  At the furlong pole, and in the clear on the outside he hit his best stride and blew by the two leaders to score decisively at 3/5 odds.  Cashed for over $15 with my double bet.  Disappointment followed over the next hour and five picks.  My co-best of the day at Charles Town was Down Town Allen who had won TWENTY-FOUR races at this track, including a dozen races at the seven furlong distance of The Original Gold Stakes today.  AND she was working on an eight race win streak dating back to August 2013.  Duh.  But as they ran down the backstretch she pulled up and didn't finish the race.  Man, you can just never figure on such things and it's a constant reminder that NOTHING is a given in racing.  Eddy Gourmet was a prohibitive 3/5 in The Geisha at Pimlico - where I will be a month from today for the Preakness!  She tracked the pace to the top of the stretch and then was empty, fading to fifth.  Back to Charles Town where Lucy's Bob Boy was the 3/5 chalk in The Confucius Say.  He'd won 23 starts at the West Virginia oval, and in seventeen starts against today's rivals he was 17/15-1-0.  As I wrote, "...to be fair, the two losses were both to the same runner in here...."  Prophetic as that one took them gate to wire and I was second.  Sigh......Next was the fifth locally, a 7 1/2 furlong turf race for Maiden Specials.  Dujac was the 7/5 favorite and opened up into the lane.....caught in deep stretch to be second  And at Woodbine the five race skein continued when Thebarberofbrazil ran an even third at even money in another Maiden Special.  But to my credit, I held to the betting plan in the next which was my "BET of the DAY" at Pimlico - The Stormy Blues Stakes for three-year-olds sprinting five furlongs on the turf.  My top choice was the likely favorite, Lady Shipman.  This filly had debuted on the dirt with a non-threatening loss.  But then she was moved to the turf.  She rattled off three straight daylight scores (one on synthetic).  Her first win, at Gulfstream Park West came by ELEVEN widening lengths over that turf course; then she moved into nw1x allowance company at the Championship Meet at Gulfstream where she aired by four widening lengths, going wire to wire in a dazzling :44.3 for the half mile while under pressure.  And her last was her first stakes try when she sprinted six furlongs in the OBS Sprint.  I've found for many years that runners who win at these OBS Championship races often come back with big efforts.  The fact she had stretched out to six furlongs AND had rattled off pace figures of :21.3, :44.1, and a final time in a sizzling 1:08.4 while drawing off by eight lengths and change told me that she could face pace pressure and still win.  She looked to have company on the front end today, but I thought she was the quickest of the quick.  She broke a step slowly, but before the first quarter mile pole she was dueling on the front end.  As they hit the far turn she began to edge clear and as she opened up on the field race track announcer Dave Rodman called out she run an opening quarter in :21.3, and a half in :44.4.  As they turned for home she was in hand for local rider Eduado Nunez and So Fla conditioner Kathleen O'Connell.  I am hopeful she will run back in a stakes on either Black Eyed Susans Day or Preakness Day when I am at the Baltimore track. 

 

The payoff was a generous $3.00 so I cashed for $30 with my prime time play!  I missed with Dr. Sport at 6/1 at Woodbine when the odds-on favorite wired the field.  At Keeneland I went against one of my favorite sprinters, Delauney.  This guy has scored many times for me, including in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs three years ago on Derby Day when I thought he might be the best sprinter in the country.  Most recently though, he was odds-on in the Kenner Stakes at the Fair Grounds when we were visiting New Orleans.  He laid over that field and was my "BEST" of the day, only to run second.  Today he was at Keeneland, which unlike the Fair Grounds, is NOT his favorite track, and he was dropping into allowance company.  Both of these were negatives to me, especially in light of his recent disappointment.  I went instead with Todd Pletcher's rising star, Rock Fall.  He'd won three of four starts with sharp Beyers.  Granted his numbers were not as good as those earned by Delauney, but I thought he'd decline and Rock Fall would improve.  Rock Fall was the betting favorite as they went through the post parade, but Delauney caught him on the board and they were co-favorites at 4/5 as they loaded into the gate.  Then some kind of technical glitch occurred at Gulfstream.  The screen froze.  I tried going to different TV monitors and even tried opening the race on my phone....no dice.  Later when I went to download the race for my highlight video even the replay was blank.  The screen came back on with the final odds posted.  And then the run through the stretch came up....and there was Rock Fall running away in hand!  I am a WINNER!  When the replay came on the screen (which makes me wonder why the replay wasn't available online) Deluaney was compromised when he stumbled badly out of the gate.  He rushed up to press Rock Fall but had nothing for the stretch run.  My seventh win of the day!  Next up turned out to be the "price score of the day," and it came at Woodbine.  The key to picking this winner however goes to ME personally, not to the Woodbine handicapping aids I'd downloaded.  The 7th at Woodbine was a Maiden Special for sophomores.  My top choice was Breaking Lucky, and here's why.  Going back to the New Orleans trip that I mentioned earlier.....on the Sunday following the trip to the Fair Grounds my "Bet of the Day" at Gulfstream was Todd Pletcher's rising star Khozan and he dominated that allowance field and I proclaimed him a likely Florida Derby winner in his next start.  Well, he was injured prior to the Derby, but on that Sunday he had exited a MSW win where he drew off by some 11 widening lengths over a horse called Wisecracker.  He had come back to be second in his next start, but that was to another talented colt, and then he'd won his maiden at Keeneland on their opening weekend card two weeks ago. 

 

Wisecracker's runner-up effort leading to that win had seen him score over Breaking Lucky.  That race was Breaking Lucky's debut.  Now he was back to his trainer's home barn at Woodbine and I thought his placing in that KEY Gulfstream race was the secret to his chances today.  He was listed at 9/2 in the program.  He tracked the 4/5 leader through the turn, but I could tell, the rider was ready to run by that one!  For the first 16h of a mile of the stretch the favorite, and a closer on the outside threatened to make a race of it, but once they passed the furlong pole Breaking Lucky lengthened his stride and was LONG GONE!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  Best of all, the price was a generous $8.60 so I was cashing for nearly $45!  The next five races all gave me hope, only to disappoint.  Seeking Alpha at Keeneland exited the same race as Breaking Lucky, but he was trying the turf today at Keeneland - belated rally at 2/1 to be 4th.  Curve of Stones was a non-threatening fifth without a rallying bid at Tampa at 9/2.  Istanford set the pace into the stretch of The Dahalia at Pimlico on the turf, and weakend to be 4th at 9/5.  Tennessee Whiskey stalked and took the lead into the stretch at Gulfstream only to be caught late, third.  Executive Allure was my "BEST" at Woodbine, another Woodbine 40% Club play in the Grade 3 Whimscal.  She looked loose on the lead into the lane, but had no late kick...weakened to be third at 2/1.  I was finally back into the winner's circle, this with a stakes race at Charles Town.  It was the Robert Hilton Memorial for 3yo going a two-turn seven furlongs.  Control Stake had on two of his last three, and the lone loss in that sequence had been when finishing behind not one but two stakes winners.  My main concern was that speed had been the main way to win today in West Virginia and I knew this guy would come from off the pace.  He was tracking the leaders as they approached the far turn, then he made his move and blew by the field!  The double investment netted me a cool twenty beans!  I had handicapped the Santa Anita card for the late afternoon races and had only found two races that I had an interest in.  Ironically they were the two features, and the "best" of those came in the 4th, The La Puenta. This was a nine-furlong grass test for three-year-olds.  The dilemma here was that NONE of these colts had ever travelled this far previously, so at first glance it appeared to be a "pass" for a betting spot.  But the closer I looked at Papacoolpapacool, the more I liked him.  Three things led me to make him the play:  first, his speed figures in his last TWO races were superior to all those run by today's rivals except one.  And that lone effort that earned a competitive number came when the rival was chasing HIM last time out.  Second, in both of his last two starts he had drawn off through the stretch which indicated to me that he could probably get the added ground today.  Third, and finally, if anyone could maximize his run it would be Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens.  And all of this proved true.  Papacoolpapacool was kept on the rail from the start all the way through the far turn by Stevens, saving valuable ground.  No need to panic and swing five wide into the lane as Stevens patiently waited, and sure enough, as the leader hugged the rail into the stretch the three pressing him floated out wide and a seam opened.  Stevens merely shook the rails and 'Papa kissed the field goodbye under a hand ride! 

 

He paid a more-than-fair $3.00 and I was cashing for over $20 with my TENTH win (and fifth stakes) of the day!  I missed again at Gulfstream when Little Miss Julia was 6th at 3/1 and then at Woodbine when 2013 Champion Canadian Sprinter Phil's Dream rated into the stretch as the 3/5 favorite, but was outfinished......2nd.  And at Charles Town Flattering Bea went off at 2/1 in the Sugar Maple and was loose on the lead turning for home, but was run down by one of the few horses to close through the lane - figures, eh?  I picked up my final win in the finale at Aqueduct in an exciting race.  Fundamental had been out only once and in that turf debut she had been checked not once but twice and STILL was only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths.  With top NY rider Irad Ortiz on board she figured to be the favorite.  She was at 4/5.  She looked to be gearing up 3-wide through the far turn but when they turned for home the run from the top of the stretch to the furlong pole she was just looking around and running evenly.  Really?  Where's the late bid?  Then suddenly as though she said, "Oh yeah, there's a race to win!" she stepped on the gas and blew by the four horses around her to win by half a length!  Unbelievable!  Thought for sure my chances were sunk!  HORRAY!  For the final race of the day that I was watching, my BET of the DAY I went upstairs on the upper level of Gulfstream.  It was the day's key race, the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic featuring the best horse in North America, Shared Belief.  He was the OBVIOUS choice and towered over the field.  There were only two questions to be answered - it was his first time out of California and it was a three-turn race around the 7-furlong configuration there.  But, his career by and large had featured blow out wins when facing new tracks, new surfaces, and new distances.  His talent had yet to be tapped and I knew he'd win.  I even went so far as to set up a photo op with the simulcast TV in the background as I flashed a "six finger" sign to indicate my sixth win of the day.  All I needed was the win.  He broke a bit slowly and while that wasn't good, I knew he was too good for these.  But as they hit the backstretch something went wrong and he was pulled up.  That's not the way I saw this day ending :(  He seems to be ok as of this writing, but we'll see.  So for the day that guaranteed a red line for the profit on the day, but statistically I'd won with 11 of 34 for a solid 30% and change.... and I'd had a good time (until the end!).  Next weekend it looks like the ONLY graded stakes on the calendar (because it will be the weekend prior to Derby weekend!) is HERE at Gulfstream with the Grade 3 Miami Mile!

 

April 18 Video Review