Opening Night At Churchill Downs

April 25:  Opening Night at Churchill Downs

With Derby weekend next week and the nearly dozen stakes slated for the Oaks & Derby card most of the stars of the racing world were put away so there were very few stakes races this weekend, and those did NOT draw the best of the sport.  But if there is one thing I've discovered since becoming a big-time fan of thoroughbred racing, it's this.....they pay the same for a winning ticket if it's a bottom-level maiden claiming event, or a $1 million Grade 1 event!  And so I was out at Gulfsteam this afternoon for the racing action with the plan to be home in time to watch the "Downs After Dark" program as Churchill opens for their spring/summer meet.  And by the time the long day/night of handicapping had concluded I'd had an amazing run wit FIFTEEN WINS from thirty selections!  Whoooo hoooo! 

 

And as an added bonus, it was a day full of stories that I'll enjoy reliving for many moons to come.  My first race was slated for 12:40 from Tampa but when I checked for scratches online around 11 am I found that my pick was scratched.....glad I looked because I didn't have another bet until 1 pm, so I was able to postpone heading out for a half an hour.  The first bet came from Woodbine, where like last week I handicapped using the Woodbine 40% Club sheets.  Atasheen was my bet and left the gate as the 6/5 favorite.  I thought he should be the front-runner, but he was quickly outsprinted to the front and was never able to make an impact.....4th.  Twenty minutes later the opener at Aqueduct was underway.  Barrister Jim was my selection.  He was riding a four-race win streak and his last three speed figures were clearly superior to his rivals today.  But, he'd not been out for a year.  Adding to the dilemma was that the race was seven furlongs - it would be one thing to sprint six panels off the long layoff, but that final furlong might be the difference.  Still, I was willing to make him the bet.  He had the inside draw and immediately he went to the front and was in control as they turned for home.  Now the challengers came and at the furlong marker he was engaged by a 9/1 longshot.  All the way to inside the 16th pole it was one head up and one head down, and with about 100 yards to go it looked like each head bob had the longshot in front.  They hit the wire virtually simultaneously and at first glance I thought it was pretty likely I had not held on.  But, it was awfully close.  The slow-motion replay gave me some hope, but if I'd had to bet, I would have wagered I'd lost.....nope, I WON!  AMAZING!  My second bet was scheduled to come from Pimlico - where I'll be in three weeks for the Preakness! - but that horse also had been withdrawn.  So on to the next and it was a horse I was all too familiar with - My Cousin Fay.  This guy had just dominated a one-turn mile event here at Gulfstream in December when Kim & I were on our holiday cruise to the Caribbean.  Since then he'd run twice more at the Championship Meet and had been the favorite twice - once at 2/1 the other at 7/5; and both times had Javier Castellano on board.  But he'd failed miserably, losing the two starts by a combined 49 plus lengths!  So today he was running in a two-turn event, a claiming event going 1 mile and 40 yards at Tampa.  On his best day he would dominate these - but he obviously was NOT in peak form.  Still if he ran well he should win.  I was encouraged that (a) he was first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness (33% with a $2.37 ROI) and (b) he was being ridden by Tampa's top jockey, Antonio Gallardo (34% for Ness). 

 

He broke sharply from post three and went right to the front and seemed in complete control.  But much like the Aqueduct event a 9/1 longshot decided to take it to him, and as they hit the far turn that one had collared My Cousin Fay.  He fought bravely, but as heads turned for home the longshot had opened a clear lead of at least a length.  But, it seemed to me that he'd shot his wad and if My Cousin Fay could just reach back and find that form from December.....well, Gallardo would not give up and in spite of how very unusual it is for a horse to come back once he's been passed, that's what My Cousin Fay did as he re-rallied up the rail and edged clear late!  My second win and this time I'd doubled the bet - cashed for over $20.  At Aqueduct Magical Miss was the 8/5 favorite.  She pressed the pace three wide to the stretch then weakened to be fifth.  My first bet at Gulfstream was in a Maiden Special for sophomores, Face of Winner.  He was the 8/5 favorite and led into the lane but also weakened, third. It was at about this time that I went to the teller to make my next set of bets and cash my ticket on My Cousin Fay.  I handed the ticket to the teller - who knows me - and she looked at me and said, "Sorry, it's not a winner."  Hmmm, that's not right, I know it was a winner.  And when she handed it back to me I saw that the ticket I'd given her was from the Aqueduct race.  Oh no - I'd thrown away the winning ticket from Tampa and kept the losing ticket from New York!  I made my next two bets - on at Tampa and my "BEST" of the day here at Gulfstream, and then headed back to where I knew I'd tossed what I had thought was the losing ticket.  As I walked to the other side of the simulcast area I had two thoughts......one, the crowd - at this point in the day - was not that big so the amount of trash that was probably tossed into the bin where I'd thrown the ticket was probably minimal (providing it had not been emptied in the last twenty minutes since I'd pitched it); and two, unlike most people I don't just toss my tickets, I always fold them.  Why?  Couldn't tell you, but I do.  So I knew if there wasn't much trash in the container and I looked in and saw a neatly folded ticket, chances were it would be mine.  I went right to the trash bin, not much in there, looked down........

 

That's right, whew, sitting right on top!  Saved myself over $20 :)  The next two plays were two I was most confident in.  Elite Eight was a triple investment at Tampa in a one mile turf event for maiden claimers.  This 4yo filly was being sent out by trainer Tom Proctor for Glen Hill Farms and that's always a solid combination.  She had been a good third in MSW company at Santa Anita in her only turf try and today was her first time for a tag.  She made a big middle move after breaking from the outside and was in complete control as they hit the far turn.....but in the final fifty yards a longshot came flying by to nip her on the wire.  Sigh.....thought finding / recovering that lost ticket had been an omen of GOOD things to come!  It's ok, the "BEST" of he day was up next from Gulfstream.  Mr. Jordan had been unbeaten when he was sent out last time to face Todd Pletcher's Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes winner, Competitive Edge.  Mr. Jordan had been bet down to 4/5 odds - not by me, as I won with the Pletcher colt - so you know he had talent.  Today he dropped into a listed event and stretched out from seven furlongs to the one-turn mile distance.  My only little qualm was the rider.....but hey, the horse should win this with the rider stopping off for a hot dog at the top of the lane.  Right to the front and as they turned for home Mr. Jordan was at least four lengths clear.  But inside the final 16th a closer had all the momentum and it looked like my rider thought the race was over.  He saw the late running threat and began pumping his hands to get Mr. Jordan to step it up.....it was oh-so-close, but even though officially a photo I was standing right there near the finish line and it seemed clear to me he'd held on.  HORRAY.  Wait......objection and inquiry.  For what?  I watched the replay and saw immediately.  The closer had been at least seven wide through the stretch and Mr. Jordan was skimming the rail.  But when Mr. Jordan saw the other horse he made a sharp right hand turn - not a gradual bend, a SHARP RIGHT (watch the video) as if to say, "Hey, how's it goin'?  I'm comin' out to see you!"  And right as they were about a stride from the wire he made contact. You could tell that it was literally the stride before the wire and I had hopes that maybe the stewards would say the contact came too late to impact the outcome.  But if that wasn't the case there was not way he'd stay up.  The replay went on and on and the wait seemed forever.  Then......the numbers switched - disqualified :(  Sigh......  And right after that I lost again, this time at Woodbine when Splashy Gizmo was a dismal last of eight. 

 

Next up was the fifth from Pimlico, a turf sprint.  The first half of the entry was Billy Two Hats.  He was being sent out by trainer Joe Sharp, who in addition to being Rosie Napravnik's husband, is extremely sharp, no pun intended, trainer.  The fact that Billy Two Hats had raced over the winter at the Fair Grounds gave him a recency edge over the main contenders.  He broke right on cue, was quickly in front and L-O-N-G gone.  When I had looked at the board walking towards the windows to bet the entry was 4/5.  I thought, I get two for one on a runner that I like.....I'm upping the bet.  So I doubled the original minimum investment.  Whooo, wait.....INQUIRY.  Really?  I found out later it was because of a spill on the turn, not anything that had to do with the winner.  Man, as I said on camera, nothing's easy!  At Woodbine I was second best with Why the Ring who I liked largely because of a best-of-91 bullet work.  The fifth at Aqueduct was an interesting story.  Anyone who's followed my racing adventures know that I often have an issue with the line maker for the Daily Racing Form.  Another example here.....the New York event was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf for maidens.  I liked a first-time starter, Warrior Kitten.  As you can imagine, like nearly every other "Kitten" you run across in the thoroughbred world, this one was owned and bred by top North American owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  They were coming off a record FIFTEENTH owners' title.  Warrior Kitten's trainer was Michael Maker who enjoys great success for the Ramsey's, especially on the turf, an very often with first time starters. And the rider was top North American jockey Javier Castellano, who like the Ramseys, was coming off a championship Keeneland meet.  With all of that you would figure that Warrior Kitten, at worst, would be 3-1 or 4-1 in the program.  The DRF line maker made the odds at 20/1.  Uhhhhh, yeah.  I was having none of that - I doubled the bet.  Castellano had Warrior Kitten sitting just off the pace to the far turn.  A sweeping three-wide move and 'Kitten was in front. Clear on the lead, but here came the closers.  It was officially a photo finish (picture at right), but I knew I'd won.  And the odds - anything close to the DRF 20/1?  NO... 9/5 at post time so I was cashing for nearly $30.  At Woodbine I had my first Woodbine 40% Club play in I'm Chip.  Trainer Sam DiPasquale has won at a big 55% first off the claim over the last two years and I'm Chip was 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at a big 9/2, burst from between horses at the top of the lane, but couldn't quite catch the loose-on-the-lead front-runner, second. 

The weather had turned to overcast over the last hour or so locally and as they approached the gate for the start for the 7th it began to spit rain.  This was a Maiden Special for 3yo turf runners and I liked Todd Pletchers Cordero.  This guy had debuted for Wesley Ward at the internationally prestigious Royal Ascot meet and made his first North American start was at Saratoga - both of which said to me his connections thought highly of him.  Since that August try at the Spa he'd been moved to the Todd Pletcher barn.  I've seen - and said - many times that horses making their first start after moving into Pletcher's barn run big.  My only concern was that with the end of the Championship meet Pletcher had shipped out his "first team."  Was this one good enough to beat the locals?  I thought so and doubled the bet.  Cordero broke sharply and immediately took command.  He was still in front as they turned for home and raced by me.  He was well in hand and extended his lead to the wire!

Walked inside and they were in the gate for Santa Anita's 2nd.  War Academy typically ran Beyers in the mid-90's, fast enough to be a daylight winner here.  But the Bob Baffert trainee had not raced since July 4!  Fortunately Baffert is a master with long layoff types.  And Warrior Academy had a sharp bullet work for today.  The gates opened and he was quickly on the lead.  But as they spun out of the turn it looked like he was out of steam as a stalker collared him and looked to have all the momentum.  But instead jockey Martin Garcia was just waiting to downshift into another gear.......Warrior Academy re-broke and was LONG gone.  The next play was here locally and we were back on the turf.  As I looked outside it wasn't raining anymore....it was POURING!  Just the forecast of potential rain today would have been enough for Calder to have taken all the turf races off, but here at Gulfstream, we don't roll that way.  The course was downgraded to yielding, but in spite of the rain we were still on the turf.  Majestic Breeze looked like a standout to me.  Of the 48 races run on the grass by the rest of the field, BOTH of his last two numbers easily were faster.  Of the 91 career figures earned by the rest of the field, turf or dirt, the last two numbers were better than 90 of them....one lone dirt figure was better than his last two.  I tripled the bet.  'Breeze tracked the leaders - at least that is what the announcer said because if you watch the replay you'll see (rather won't see) what I saw....nothing!  It was POURING down rain so hard.  At the furlong marker he'd caught the leader and edged clear through the final sixteenth.  He paid a fair $4.20 and so I cashed for over $30!  The next selection on my sheet was the second "BEST" of the day to go down.  Conquest Titan had won stakes races at Woodbine and then hit the Triple Crown trail.  Today he was coming off a layoff with a sizzling bullet work in a nw2x allowance spot.  His best efforts looked much better than anything the rest of these allowance quality runners could do.  But after dueling to the top of the stretch he stopped on a dime and was a well beaten last of six.  Slid over one television screen and they were approaching the gate at Tampa.  No time to cry over spilled milk at the races!  Here's what I wrote about the 9th at Tampa, ".....Could be a nice surprise package for top rider Gallardo for a barn that's 27% on turf to dirt move like this....Gallardo 21% for the Gratis barn...."  Pure Bliss, my pick, was a huge 8/1 in the program!  I doubled the bet.  He was stalking the leaders, but as they raced around the turn he was running evenly.  I did think to myself that if he tried to go wide there was no way he'd win, but he might have a chance IF he went up the rail and a seam opened and IF the front runner would shorten stride.  It was as though the racing gods heard my thoughts because that is exactly was Gallardo did - guided Pure Bliss to the wood, and persevered.  Then at the furlong marker the leader was visually tiring.  Pure Bliss surged and caught him with a hundred yards to go, then edged clear. 

It wasn't 8/1, but it was a healthy 3/1 price and I was cashing for $40!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  My eighth win of the day!  As I was watching the Tampa race I had lost track of time for my next race, the 9th at Pimlico.  My pick was Lil Honey Badger in an allowance event without conditions going a mile and  sixteenth.  I looked at the Pimlico screen and I saw the #1 horse about ten lengths clear of the field with about 100 yards to go - who is that?  Lil Honey Badger!  OH YEAH!  When I watched the replay I saw that my analysis was spot on - he'd failed as the odds-on choice at this distance here at Pimlico last time out, but it was over a muddy track.  I projected that with a fast track he would easily redeem himself,, and indeed he did...right to the front and L-O-N-G gone!  Another $20 on my ninth win.  I was disappointed yet again in a stakes race when Wicked Strong was an even, but non-threatening 3rd at 3/5 in the Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct.  About five minutes before the Tampa race I'd checked the monitor for Santa Anita's 4th, a six and one-half furlong turf sprint.  I saw that there was 24 minutes to post, but noticed nothing was moving.  I kept looking and nothing - the screen was frozen.  I kept checking and tried my phone to get online, but nothing.  I moved on and figured I'd know later.....so I win at Tampa and I win at Pimlico, so I look over at the Santa Anita monitor and now we've got a live feed - it's showing the winning jockey shaking hands with the owners and on the bottom of the screen, there's the numbers and listed on top:  #11-Hot Market, MY PICK!  He'd been down the hill twice and had run well, in spite of hopping at the start and then breaking behind the field.  It looked like there were several speed types to set up his late kick and jockey Rafael Bejarano is a good closing rider.  When I watched the replay Hot Market began his move as they approached the cross-over the dirt surface to the stretch run, but was seven-wide.  If I had not known he was the winner I would not have had much hope because with a furlong to go he was still seventh of ten. But then he accelerated and in a perfectly timed ride was just up in time!  The rain had stopped and the sun was now shining at Gulfstream as the horses marched to the gate on the "good" turf course for the Grade 3 Miami Mile.  My top pick was Grand Tito.  He'd faced FAR better in four graded events over the winter and the competition was much less today.  But my fear was if he was over the top after the winter of hard racing.  But he looked best on paper.  He stalked the pace and moved strongly to the lead into the stretch.  He was clear by daylight halfway home, but was nailed on the wire, second.  My plan had been to stay for the final at Gulfstream, the Powder Break with Grade 1 winner Discreet Marq.  But as I went to make my late bets I discovered she was scratched.  So I made the decision to film my last video segments and head for home to get home in time to watch the Churchill Down races. 

April 25 Video Highlights:  Part 1

 



Today was my son Jeff's birthday so I was very happy to chat with him nearly the entire ride home from Gulfstream.  One side story - I always take the backstreets home from Gulfstream to avoid the traffic, but today after the monsoon rains the streets were really, REALLY flooded.  As I drove though them in my little sports car that sits low to the road the water level was well up past the halfway mark of my tires....very concerned I'd stall out, but I made it :)  Once I got home I opened up the recording from HRTV and fast forwarded to the finale from Woodbine.  In the 10th, a six and one-half furlong maiden special sprint I went with Town Called Malice.  He was last seen when second, beaten a neck with a field-best Beyer figure of 67 while more than double-digit lengths clear of his closest rivals on the Beyer scale.  And he was six clear of the show horse that day (and that one was more tan seven clear of the rest of the field!).  A sequence o strong works for a barn that wins with 32% off of layoffs cinched it for me.  I was even more confident when I noted that this one was Woodbine Handicapper Jim Bannon's "BEST" of the day.  I was surprised with all of those facts as I watched the replay that Town Called Malice was 2/1 and NOT the favorite.  He was fourth heading into the lane and was looking to move wide, but the front-runner kept drifting out, so top rider Patrick Husbands dove inside and split horses, accelerated, and caught the leader, then moved on by to score! 

 

I'd doubled the bet so the $6.20 payoff netted me well over $30!  I fast forwarded and arrived at the Churchill opener.  It was a claiming event for $25K going a one-turn mile.  My pick, Flatermejim had been second twice at Oaklawn, but against $32K company.  He should improve on the drop I thought.  As they hit the far turn he was last, but as soon as he hit the turn he began to pick off horses easily and as the field turned for home he'd caught the leaders.  The sprint for home turned into a winning romp as Flattermejim drew off as MUCH the best, justifying his 4/5 odds.  My triple investment pick in the second was an even 4th at 3/5, then I was 3rd again at 3/5 in the third.  In Santa Anita's Grade 3 Last Tycoon my pick Big John B was the 9/5 favorite.  He trailed to the far turn and when Mike Smith asked him for run.....no response, 8th and last.  Sigh.......But in the fifth I was back into the winner's circle with Thunder Rollin' in a nw2L 7 furlong sprint.  He came from off the pace, weaving his way through the field but was still four back of the leader as they straightened for the run to the wire.  By the furlong pole the leader was weakening and 'Thunder was full of momentum and blew by to score going away at a nice $6.60.  My "BEST" under the Twin Spires was in the featured William Walker as backed 3/5 favorite, the unbeaten Blofeld from the Todd Pletcher barn.  He had won not one but TWO Grade 2 events and the rest of the field had never even hit the board in a graded event - some had never even tried a graded race.  But after tracking the leaders to the stretch he came up empty, third - completing a "sweep" of the stakes races for the day, a "perfect" 0-for-4.  I was working on my video when I went to the computer to check where we were at Churchill and the field was making their way towards the gate in the 8th.  This had been scheduled for the turf and when I made my bets at Gulfstream I was told my horse was scratched; and I had discovered when I got home it was because of rain earlier in the day taking the race off the inner grass course.  So as I looked at the field it occurred to me - in my analysis I had noted that if the race came off the grass then Main Track Only Majestic Harbor would be the pick.  I looked at the screen, three minutes to post, I still had time!  I quickly submitted a triple bet on the even-money favorite.  He too trailed down the backstretch, but as they hit the turn, like Flattermejim, he began picking off horses.  He swept to the lead entering the lane and was gone.  HORRAY, wait.......INQUIRY & Objection - against ME!  SERIOUSLY?  I watched the replay and while it was true the rider of the third place horse had taken up as I swept by, I'd never left my path and had NOT caused the trouble.  They looked at it for several minutes and then the decision........NO CHANGE!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I only had one selection left, but it wasn't until the eleventh and final race of the night after eleven pm.  But I worked on recording the races from earlier in the day and was still up when Todd Pletcher saddled Don'tforgetabout me for this Maiden Special event going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The crowd saw the same thing I did.....he was a $725K Keeneland sales grad who was a good fourth when debuting in an ULTRA KEY race, then was a best-of-the-rest second at Gulfstream in site of a troubled start.  That race earned him a field-best 85.  A run back to that and he was long gone.  The gates opened and John Velazquez quickly had him in front down the backstretch; he carried the lead through the turn, and as they hit the top of the lane the field began to move in ..... but Velazquez had yet to ask, and when he did, Don'tforgetabout me opened up and cruised home! 

 

I had gone in "prime-time" on the final bet of the day so I was cashing for nearly $30.  The final numbers showed me with a 50% win rate with fifteen winners from thirty selections.  It doesn't get much better than that! 

 

April 25:  Video Highlights - Part 2