And so the "Road To The Breeders' Cup" begins! With the end of the Championship Meet last weekend on Florida Derby Day, it is now time to turn our attention to first the Triple Crown and then on to the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland at the end of October. Today's key races were in Kentucky, at Keeneland, where it was Bluegrass Stakes Day and a full card of stakes action; at Santa Anita where it was Santa Anita Derby Day, and also a full card of stakes races; and at Aqueduct where it was Wood Memorial Day. It was also Florida Cup Day at Tampa with multiple state-bred stakes; and finally there were, of course, live races from Gulfstream. My original plan was to go to the track and head home after the big races to be able to make it home in time to head out to the Florida Panthers game. This weekend brings the final two home games of the year for Kim and I with our upcoming trip on Thursday. But on Friday Kim reminded me that the puck dropped at 7 pm Saturday. That would mean leaving at 5:30 pm from Gulfstream, and I'd miss ALL the big races. So I called an audible and played online. In the first two races on my card my picks went right to the front, and neither of them were confirmed front runners. Size faded to fourth at 5/1 in the Keeneland opener and Prudhoe Bay was a competitive third in Tampa's Hilton & Hampton Sprint. I scored my first win of the day at Gulfstream in a non-winners of two lifetime turf event.
My top selection was Biedermeir who was a left-over from the Pletcher barn. I figured he'd be overbet because of this, but he was simply the best horse. AND he was dropping into a claiming event for the first time AND into restricted company for the first time. H waited behind horses through the turn, made a three-wid move to the lead and drew off late as the 6/5 favorite. I came right back at Keeneland in their seond. This nw2x allowance test was scheduled to go a mile on the turf. But torrential rains on Friday, which had led to the cancellation of the second half of the opening day card, forced non-stakes turf races off the grass. I had selected Taghleeb on the turf, but I also liked Hazards of Love, a "Main Track Only" entrant. He had rattled off four straight 90+ Beyers against softer, but those kind of numbers against horses who preferred the turf would make him a likely winner. He was being heavily played on the board so I kept the double investment. He stalked the leaders in third, swung out three-wide to the lead and then held off the runner-up through the lane. At Aqueduct Brass Pear looked like the lone speed, but he'd given up the lead in his last couple. Still I made him the pick because today he dropped out of open company into a state-bred spot and his two & three back efforts vs. this kind had led to superior figures that should win for fun. RIght to the front, long gone....wait, inside the final 100 yards he was nailed again and then he just stopped - fifth. The third at Keeneland saw me make my second strong decision of the day regarding the races in Lexington. Wisecracker had debuted at Gulfstream against Todd Pletcher's talented sophomore, Khozan. That one came back to dazzle against allowance foes and would have been the prohibitive favorite in last weekend's Florida Derby had he not been injured. Wisecracker returned as the short priced favorite, and my top choice, only to run second again, but ten clear of the rest of the field going a one-turn mile. Today he was trying two turns for the first time and I thought that today would be his day to shine. He waited in mid-pack to the turn, made a strong move to the lead and ran away EASILY through the lane. I'm three for my first six of the new handicapping project and things are looking good! In the third at Gulfstream Gotcha Key moved into the Michael Petro barn, a 26% move and was sent off at event money. Dueled to the wire, second best. Todd Pletcher's One Sided was the 7/5 favorite in an Aqueduct MSW for three-year-olds. Chased the leader from the get-go and was a best-of-the-rest second. Three more losses followed when Media Time ran evenly in 5th in Tampa's Ocala Sophomore Stakes, Island Town didn't run a step in 6th at 8/1 at Keeneland and Border Song was right there at 3/1 heading for home at Gulfstream before fading to fifth. The seventh at Tampa produced my first stakes score of the afternoon. It was the Tampa Turf Classic going 1 1/8 mile on the grass. Last year Old Time Hockey had won this event when exiting a solid effort over the main track. Heading into today's stakes event he was coming off a good second behind multiple stakes-placed General A Rod in the Challenger Stakes .... here, ON THE DIRT. Trainer pattern alert! The crowd pounded him down to 1/2 favoritism but as they spun out of the turn he was still some half-dozen lengths behind the leader. And as they turned for home that one kicked away to be clear by daylight. But jockey Ronnie Allen asked Old Time Hockey for his best and he accelerated with dead aim on the leader. It was oh-so-close, but I knew his head was in front a stride before the wire, I didn't need the slo-mo replay or the official photo finish picture. I was the WINNER! 
Old Time Hockey UP IN TIME In Tampa's Turf Classic
I had tripled the bet so I cashed for over $20. At Keeneland Sam's Sister was a Grade 1 winner at today's seven furlong distance and had Gary Stevens on board in the Grade 1 Madison - the first of the stakes on the Keeneland card. Pressed to the stretch then stopped, well-beaten fourth. Hard Grace was making his first start off the claim for Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. He solid 2/1 on the board, but after tracking the pace three wide he faded to fifth. At Santa Anita Never Ends ran second for the fourth consecutive time - I had given her one last chance....I won't be on board next time. And Ostrolenka led into the stretch at even money for Todd Pletcher at even money over the Aqueduct main track.....gave way to be second behind a 61/1 longshot. WOW. My second stakes win of the day was back at Tampa in their next event following the Turf Classic, the Stonehedge Sophomore Fillies Sprint. My pick was R Sassy Lass who was 8/5, but NOT the favorite. She had won the Sandpiper Stakes here two back when getting up JUST in time. Off of that effort she tried the Grade 3 Old Hat at Gulfstream where she was a good second behind a filly who came back to win a Grade 2. Now she was down in class to a state-bred stakes, over a track she likes. She tracked the pace and glided up to the leader on the turn. There was a stretch duel to the 16th pole, but then she put that one away and edged clear to win by daylight! WHOOO HOOO.
R Sassy Lass CLEAR ON THE WIRE In Sophomore Fillies Sprint
She paid a decent $5.40, so I collected nearly $30. The question for me in Gulfstream's feature, the Orange Blossom Handicap was if Little Alexis, off since a Breeders' Cup try, could run down R Free Roll. The latter looked to have company on the front end and I thought that even though the trainer for Little Alexis had indicated she might not be fully cranked for this one, I thought she was the most talented with a good pace set-up. But instead R Free Roll stalked a longshot, took over at the top of the stretch and had just enough to hold off a fast-closing Little Alexis. Bourbon Courage ran evenly at 3/1 when 6th in Keeneland's Grade 3 Commonwealth and Wonder Gal flattened out after a bold move on the turn in Aqueduct's Grade 2 Gazelle for three-year-old fillies. The winner, Condo Commodore will NOT be a factor in the Kentucky Oaks! You read it here first! Four more losses spelled a losing day on money matters when Reach For A Kitten was an even fifth in a Gulfstream Maiden Special; Power Alert was an even 4th in the Grade 3 Shakertown at 5/2 in a turf sprint. And then back-to-back BIG disappointments: Ready For Rye was my "best" at Aqueduct in the Grade 3 Bayshore. A juicy 6/5 he pressed the lead to the stretch and then stopped - third. And then Speed Seeker was a distant 6th at 9/5 as my "best" at Tampa. But my confidence got a boost when I scored my first Grade 1 win of the day in Keeneland's Ashland for 3yo fillies. Lovely Maria was 7/2 in the program and I thought would be a fair price. She'd not won a stakes race, much less a graded one, but she had been chasing arguably the best sophomore filly - I'm A Chatterbox - at the Fair Grounds. That one - her stablemate - had been my "BET of the Day" last weekend as she annexed the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks so I thought Lovely Maria might be a sneaky good runner. Three fillies got all the betting action and in the final minutes before post time Lovely Maria was made the 9/5 favorite. She pressed the pace to the turn while three wide and in hand. When Kerwin Clark shook the reigns she took off in a full flight for the wire. She was an easy daylight winner, and she provided Clark with his FIRST Grade 1 after nearly 3,000 career wins!
Lovely Maria MUCH THE BEST In Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland
She paid a fair $5.80 and I collected nearly $30. Back-to-back-to-back off the board finishes followed at Gulfsream where Trigger Finger was 4th on the turf for Maker & the Ramseys. I guess his second team, the "left-overs" are not nearly as good as those that ran here this winter! Deputy Heat was never in it when 7th at 9/2 over the Santa Anita turf and Daredevil confirmed that perhaps Ready For Rye - who he'd been solidly beaten by in the Grade 2 Swale at Gulfstream - wasn't as good as I'd thought when the Pletcher colt was a fading fourth I the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. The winner, Frosted had been an also-ran in Gulfstream's big sophomore events. His last big effort was over the Aqueduct surface - he's a play against in the Kentucky Derby for me. It was a half hour after the Wood before my next and it was my BET OF THE DAY in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The heavy program favorite, Carpe Diem, looked FORMIDABLE to me. He'd been my "bet of the day" when he debuted in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint at Saratoga and he'd wowed me. He came off that maiden sprint win to ship HERE and go 8 1/2 furlongs in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity and was MUCH the best. So with one over the track, unlike his rivals today, he held yet another edge. He was a troubled-trip second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. And last out, in his sophomore debut he'd demolished the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby field with a career best figure WHEN NEVER BEING ASKED to run! The only question for me was how much to bet. Typically I just have a thing about betting really big online, but this was one exception I was willing to make! A Ben Franklin on Carpe Diem to WIN please! He pressed the pace to the turn well in hand. When John Velazquez asked him he easily disposed of the leader and was on his way to an emphatic score! Carpe Diem was 1/9 in the betting until about five minutes before post time when I thought he was a fair 1/5. I hoped to get that and if I was REALLY lucky maybe 2/5. One final click before they left the gate and he was 2/5.....a steal in my mind. The $2.80 payoff meant I'd collect nearly $150. Not nearly as much the money, as I've said before, its all about being right when I bet with such conviction! The win gave me FOUR wins at Keeneland and a sweep of the three-year-old stakes today! I thought it was an interesting observation by DRF handicapper Matt Berning in the analysis for this race when he noted that not only did Carpe Diem have a win over the course previously, but IF he won today it might be something to keep in mind for the Breeders' Cup Classic this fall which will be run......HERE! 
Carpe Diem - the BET OF THE DAY - Draws Off Impressively In The Grade 1 Blue Grass
Less than five minutes later and it was time for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. Stellar Wind had scored from off the pace last time out in the Grade 3 Santa Ysbel and I'd seen in an article online that she might be "the right one" for the Kentucky Oaks. I was hoping that she might be second choice behind a Bob Baffert-trained filly but the crowd was too smart for that sending her off as the 6/5 choice. I was just a touch concerned when they hit the far turn and she was still NOT in the television picture! But then here came a blur of chestnut color with a green cap on the rider's head and she swooped to the lead. Had she put all of her efforts into the sweeping move to the lead? No, plenty more as she rolled home with authority!
Stellar Wind BLOWS BY Gr 1 Santa Anita Oaks Field
The $4.40 payoff on my THIRD Grade 1 win of the day resulted in a pay-out of over $30! I missed in the Grade 1 Carter at Aqueduct, effectively sealing an 0-for-day in New York. And as we prepared to leave for the hockey game I looked at my next two and final two selections. I liked a Todd Pletcher debut runner at Keeneland who was listed at 20/1 in the DRF - obviously way off base. But when he was listed at 5/1 by the official line maker for the program I wondered if I was overrating him - this is NOT Gulfstream or Saratoga. I decided to go against the bet and scratched it off the list. Instead I decided - (a) because I had won with Carpe Diem and (b) with the dismissing of the Pletcher FTS that instead of $30 to win on Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby, I'd go $50 to win! I actually opened my phone to watch the race when we got to the arena and then thought I would rather watch it at home. Then again, during a period intermission I opened my phone to watch, and again thought better of it. The Panthers did not play well and lost. So when I got home first I looked up the results of the "pass" race. The Pletcher colt had been 10/1 at post time and was FLYING late, but was second! Oh my I would have been so mad! I opened up the replays on twinspires.com and saw that Dortmund, in spite of being 5-for-5 and he controlling speed over a group of horses he'd already beaten, was a generous 3/5! He bobbled coming out of the gate, but shot through along the rail and was on the lead. How hard did he have to work to get the lead? Oh no, a sizzling :22 opening quarter and a sharp :46 half mile probably was setting him up to be caught in the lane as he tried nine furlongs for the first time. But as they hit the far turn he was still in hand and when asked actually spurted clear. Now the big question as they turned for home - did he have anything left? Oh, he had TONS left and romped home the EASIEST of winners!
Dortmund ROMPS In $1 Million Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby
I collected $80 on my NINTH win of the day - sixth stakes win and fourth Grade 1 of the day. As I checked Facebook before heading to bed I was excited to see my girl, my former student Rosemary Homeister, Jr. had WON the $400K Fantasy Stakes for 3yo fillies at Oaklawn at odds of 18/1! When I'd seen her post this afternoon that she was riding I looked at her filly and noted she had only been out three times - back-to-back dirt wins and then a turf try last out. I'd thought "maybe....." but decided against betting. Could have used that big payoff!
The Dortmund win was also a significantly good sign for me because the last of the Kentucky Derby preps is next week's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The 2yo champion American Pharaoh had won the prep for this, the Grade 3 Rebel in his sophomore debut. The fact that he'd won not one but TWO Grade 1 events over the Santa Anita track and was NOT run by Baffert there so his "second string" runner Dortmund could run makes me VERY confident that he'll be an emphatic winner Saturday. And then I read that his final workout was a "sensational" bullet work! Uh oh......it's going to be a GOOD weekend!
April 4 Video Recap
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