What An A-M-A-Z-I-N-G Day!
Last weekend was the huge Kentucky Derby weekend; next weekend I will BE IN Baltimore for the gigantic Preakness weekend. This figured, at first glance to be simply "the weekend in between." And then the stakes schedule came out and it looked like it had the potential to be another big Saturday. At the end of the day I had missed on all but one stakes race I'd played, but it was a most amazing day of handicapping. I was reminded again that the track pays as much, or more, for picking the winner of a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event in the middle of a random card as they do for picking the winner of the Grade 1 $2 Million Kentucky Derby! As I made my final video a little after 6 pm I posed for one final photo, with my selection sheet showing off all T-W-E-N-T-Y winners on the day. Remarkable. Here's how it all went down.
I had arrived about 40 minutes before the first post of my first race, which turned out to be a good thing. I had handicapped the Gulfstream card, obviously, and I'd run off the analysis sheet from GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti. As I'd looked it over I noted that his "BEST" of the day came in today's seventh race, a race that I'd passed without a clear opinion. So as I was sitting in the paddock listening to his analysis of the day's races he came to the 7th. I was half listening as I reviewed possible scratches, but as he finished talking about how Creative License was his "BEST" bet I looked up at the screen. Nicoletti looked first at his partner and then into the camera and leaned back into his chair and said that he was so confident in his BEST of the day that he was also making Creative License a SINGLE on his Rainbow Pick Six ticket. Now that's some strong language. I opened up my packet of information and noted that he talked about her having a troubled trip and still running second. I then looked her up in the program online and saw she was the 9/5 favorite. It's not uncommon, nor do I mind, going against Nicoletti's BEST - I would hesitate to do that with a Dave Liftin (NYRA) or Brad Free (So Cal) BEST - but I don't think I've ever heard him say, or seen him SINGLE a horse on his Pick 6 ticket. I looked at the post time and made a note on my selection sheet to re-visit this when that race came up later in the day. I continued looking over the late changes and waited for the tellers to get their money in order because you see, I'd brought all of my winning tickets from last Saturday's Derby Day to cash. I was very much looking forward to this photo op. So, at about 12:30 inside and handed them over. The numbers just kept building until at the final count the printout showed that I was owed $623. WHOOOOO HOOOOO. I immediately took my cash - saved the betting for later - and headed upstairs to pose for posterity. I had taken my new Nikon camera to the races today to give it a trial run before using it next weekend at Pimlico and then this summer on our amazing European River Cruise adventure. But now it was time to begin he task at hand - finding winners! In the opener at Churchill Downs I liked Perfect Praise to take down the likely odds-on favorite. Well, I was right about the favorite being vulnerable, but I had the wrong "other" horse as Perfect Praise broke slowly and never made an impression at 5/1, finishing 7th. I made my next two selections and headed up to "my seat" (Section 101, Row A, Seat 5) to watch the opener at Gulfstream. Meanwhile, nearly simultaneously they were going to be off at Woodbine. Gulfstream Park has again blocked the Churchill Downs website, twinspires.com, which prohibits me from watching races online on my phone, but I've found my racing app "Horse Races NOW" does function. The only problem is that not all tracks broadcast live and/or replays on their platform. But one that does is Woodbine. So as the horses were approaching the gate locally they were off in Toronto. I watched as my top selection, Academyperfomnce shot to the front and never looked back - wire-to-wire with my triple investment at odds of 4/5. The first winner of the day!
Moments after they'd crossed the line they were off at Gulfstream and I was able to try out my new zoom video on the Nikon. The quality of the video was amazing.......
If you have not followed my racing adventures you'll fail to appreciate this, but this screen shot of the video was taken from my seat up in the grandstands at the other end of the stretch. Trust me, I've NEVER gotten a shot like this, even when I was standing at the rail and they were off just yards away. Unfortunately my pick in the opener, Overton Square, did not run with the same kind of amazing quality.....a distant 7th as the 6/5 favorite. I cashed out and then it was time for the 2nd from Churchill Downs. Officer Griffin had been coming off a four month layoff in his last when racing against $50K rivals. He'd dueled through a wicked :21.4 opening quarter and was still there after a :45.1 half mile before fading. Today he dropped into a $25K spot and looked to be the clear speed of the race. Indeed he was as he broke on top, sailed into the turn and then lengthened stride to win under a hand ride. I had doubled the bet, so I cashed for a cool $21. Today was opening day at Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore where I'd had my handicapping project late last summer, topped off by a visit there on Haskell Day. I'd passed the opener but in the second I liked Van Fraassen. Trainer David Jacobson had been in the Monmouth 40% Club with runners coming back off a short break and today this one was returning in just six days! The crowd wasn't fooled as he pressed the pace at 8/5 odds. If you watch the races you'll note how foggy it was for Opening Day, but I could still see Van Fraassen tracking the leader into the turn and then he came into sharp focus as he blew by to win! That's THREE IN A ROW! WHOOOO HOOOO! I had just enough time to cash out on the two most recent winners and then head out to the rail for the second at Gulfstream. My top choice was Elusive Harmony. He was sent out by trainer Kirk Ziadie who'd spent nearly all of last summer winning at over 45%. His numbers were "only" 28% currently, but that was due to the number of starters he'd run in the much tougher Championship Meet; they will certainly soar over the next several months. Elusive Harmony looked to be the speed of the race and indeed he was. He dueled into the far turn of this one-turn mile claiming event before dismissing that one. A closer came to him at the top of the lane, but he'd have none of that and drew off with authority.
Again, a view of the video to see the sharpness of the zoom from the rail would make you think I was on the track - very happy with my new camera! I had only bet the minimum, but still cashed for over $11. Like with the opener they were off at nearly the exact same time in Canada where it was my BET of the DAY up north. Pohdi Pondi was the odds-on favorite and if ever there deserved to be a 1-9 favorite, it was here. She'd debuted last summer as a not-so-secret quality filly when she drew off by nine widening lengths as the 3/2 favorite. She made her second career start, and first time against winners, in the Queen Victoria Stakes - and had won by FIVE widening lengths. She'd been off since that fall victory, but her trainer had found the perfect spot to give his talented filly a confidence-building start to 2015. This was an OPTIONAL CLAIMING event where you could run for the tag price of $20K or run without a tag around your head if you'd not won three CAREER races. A non-winners of three lifetime spot for a stakes winner? WOW. Of course her rivals were fillies who had struggled to win claiming events! The only question was the layoff, but considering that she'd won at first asking I had no reservations. Sat just off the pace to the turn and then drew off without having to run hard. While I only cashed for $23, it was the point that I was right - again - and had run my early winning streak to five in a row. I walked inside as both races came up OFFICIAL and then gazed up to the monitor for my first bet at Pimlico. It was an 8 1/2 furlong claiming event and Ghostly Games seemed to tower over the field on paper. He was the 5/2 second choice in the program but the 9/5 choice had just won a desperate 2-lifetime event and the 3/1 third choice had just lost by eleven at this level. Meanwhile Ghostly Games was dropping out of tougher OPEN company. But as they hit the far turn where was #6? WAY back, just barely in the screen. But with a simple shake of the reins Ghostly Games responded and ran right by the entire field like they were tied to the rail. My SIXTH win and it was barely 1:30 pm! My phone "quacked" and it was my son Jeff who said, "You're on fire - six wins in your first eight!" It was indeed a remarkable start. I was surprised that leading 2014 jockey Paco Lopez was being allowed to go off at a big 3/1 in the third at Monmouth, but the crowd was right as he was only second bet on Midnight Bounty behind the favorite.
Next up was a turf race at Belmont Park where they were hosting four graded stakes today. My selection in the second, a maiden claimer for 3yo and up going 8 1/2 furlongs over the Widner course, was Cuppa Joe. He was almost certain to be overbet from his 5/2 program odds, and you had to be concerned about the fact that in eight starts he'd been second or third five times. BUT....today was his first try for a tag and he got John Velazquez today to ride. Right to the front while never having to run hard. When the field began to sprint home at the top of the stretch Johnny V had plenty left and Cuppa Joe aired by multiple lengths. I'd doubled the bet and cashed for almost $20 on my seventh win of the day. Next was the 4th at Churchill Downs. Much like Cuppa Joe, it was hard to trust Unbridledexplosion. In her last five consecutive route races she'd run second in ALL of them (sandwiched around a 4th in a sprint race). But her last SIX speed figures were superior to ALL LIFETIME numbers earned by the field, with the exception of a maiden win. I didn't like that she'd be an obvious favorite with all those factors, but the numbers typically don't lie. I planned to double the bet. With ten minutes to post she was 1/9. Unlike the "wise guy" handicappers who'd look to back off the bet, I upped the ante and tripled the bet. Looked like a smart move when she floated to 3/5 but then she was back to 2/5 as they went into the gate and 1/5 as they moved down the backstretch. She was pinned on the rail, but as they hit the far turn the rider saw a seam and went for it. CHECKED! Oh no, lost all momentum, and for a horse that seems content to settle for minor awards, that could be the end of my best chances. But he pulled the filly back and waited. As they spun out of the turn and into the long stretch beneath the Twin Spires the four leaders separated and she burst through. Drew off with authority. My EIGHTH win! She no longer crossed the line before I turned my attention to monitors down to the opener in Chicago where I'd made my first bet of the season at Arlington Park. This is my favorite track - it's just beautiful there and I've enjoyed all three trips there. I cannot think of Arlington Park without thinking of my first visit there where I got to meet their gorgeous race analyst Lauren Masserella. She was really good at picking the winners and something truly to look at. I enjoyed spending time with her that day! My fondest memory, besides posing with my arm snugly around her waist was when after she did her preview from the paddock she asked what my plans were for the first part of the day. And when I said I was just going to hang out before the races she said, "Why don't you hang out with me?" Oh my Lauren, you don't have to ask twice :) I got to meet her fellow analysts, one of which Zoe Cadman is often on HRTV. Anyway, back to the racing......in the opener I had picked Case Cracker. Trainer Larry Rivelli boasted 30% win figures with runners off a layoff like this one. And even better, last year Case Cracker came back off an extended break to open the 2014 season with a WIN here at Arlington! He went off at a generous 2/1 price today and went right to the front. He was clear heading into the turn, but then the 11/1 outsider chasing him made his move and collared him midway on the turn. The profile at Arlington is that winners typically sit in a stalking spot, make their move on the turn and draw off in the stretch. So when Case Cracker was collared I thought his chances to win were slim at best. But he repelled the challenge, rebroke and drew off to score by daylight! My NINTH win of the day and I'm still two races from the bottom of my first page!
In the third at Belmont it was the first of the graded stakes and I supported Wolf Man Rocket. He'd won the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn - as a maiden - while Kim & I were there a month ago. His strong closing kick made him a legitimate win candidate I thought. But in this Grade 2 Peter Pan at nine furlongs he went right to the front! WHAT THE??? He had no stretch punch and faded to 5th and last at 2/1. Disappointing. At Monmouth top rider Lopez was on the obvious 3/5 favorite Village Warrior who was sent out by top North American trainer Todd Pletcher. I though Village Warrior would easily take them wire to wire. But as they left the gate Lopez settled him into a tracking spot while the leader set easy fractions. As they were moving down the backside I was thinking that he should know better as the Jersey Shore nearly always favored speed, even if you were on a contested lead you stood a much better chance than if you were tracking. Sure enough when they spun out of the turn the leader kept on going and 'Warrior was outfinished, third. Still, I couldn't be disappointed with nine wins from fourteen selections on the first page. But, I was a bit concerned knowing that on a "typical" good day I'd win twelve races or so, and I still had three hours and two pages of picks. The feature at Churchill was the Unbridled Sidney going five furlongs on the turf, but my top pick scratched. On to Belmont where the Grade 2 Ruffian was next for three-year-old fillies going a one-turn mile. The program favorite was House Rules who loves the distance, but is almost exclusively a Gulfstream horse-for-the-course. So I was against her. I liked Princess Violet who was coming off a win in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland going seven furlongs. I thought she'd have no problem with the stretch to a mile, especially going one turn. The crowd hammered Wedding Toast down to 4/5 favoritism, which I thought was great because it allowed 'Violet to be 2/1. But after rating to the head of the lane she could not resist the late rally of the favorite, second. Not to be dissuaded - having lost three in a row, what's that all about?! - I was out on the rail to watch my selection in the fifth at Gulfstream. Distinia was the 3/1 second choice behind a runner who'd freaked in a maiden win against claimers. My pick had beaten maiden specials at the Championship Meet AND was exiting a good second, while eight clear of the show, in allowance company like this. The crowd saw what I did and bet her to 9/5 favoritism. She split horses at the top of the stretch and was clear on the wire where I was filming! Win number ten!
At Monmouth I was again disappointed when Comic Bird was third at 3/1. But they'd no longer crossed the wire when they were loading into the gate for the third at Arlington. It was a maiden special event and I thought that all of the runners with experience were easy beats here. The debut runner I liked was Speak of Sailor who was listed at a distorted 15/1 by the DRF linemaker. No surprise whatsoever that the official program odds were 2/1 and the post-time odds were 8/5. Who does those odds? It is on my bucket list to someday get a response from the DRF about this consistently whacked out odds-making. Anyway, Speak Up Sailor had been working since January and she had a sharp four furlong, best of thirty-nine bullet move here locally. She rated behind a wall of horses through the lane, tipped off the rail four wide and then blew by with authority. Ultra-impressive win! Man I'm having a good day! And then reality hit.....At Pimilico Redheaded Stranger was my top choice and the "best" of the day for handicapper Gabby Gaudet. Sent off at odds of 6/5 she was second best; Contemplate looked like the best option as a first-time starter in the opener at Santa Anita, but 5th at 2/1 while fading through the stretch. Southcoastqueen was a Woodbine 40% Club play and left the gate at a huge 7/1. Ran to those odds when fifth. Fort Aiken was the alternative to the odds-on pick at Arlington. I was right about the favorite being vulnerable, but had the wrong upset choice - 6th at 6/1. Cleveland Sound was my "Upset of the Day" at Belmont in a nw2L sprint going seven furlongs on the turf. He was right there through the turn at 7/1.....maybe......stopped on a dime, ninth. I was hugely disappointed when I tripled the bet at Santa Anita on Emyvale Court. It was a turf sprint down the hill and while she'd been second three times in a row, but I loved the move to jockey Gary Stevens for Tom Proctor on this Glen Hills Farm filly. Seemed comfortable as they crossed the main track, but then, nothing. Seventh at 6/5 odds. After winning nine of my first twelve, I'd now lost ten of my last twelve. Is this how the rest of the day is going to go? I was still in "steady as she goes" mode as I've learned that over the long run I hit my numbers, and be real.....on the day I'm 11-for-24.
May 9 Recap: Part 1
Who can complain about that? The fact that I'd missed on six in a row makes the next story all the better, and even more props to me! Flash back to the beginning of the day where I'd overheard Ron Nicoletti talking about his "BEST" of the day and the fact that he'd single Creative License in the 7th today. Well, it was now coming up on that race. I considered how the day had been going and I really thought that Nicoletti must be more than confident as he NEVER singles in the Pick 6. So, I decided to go with him. How much? At first I thought I'd double up, and then I thought.....no, if I were going along on his "best" I'd do that. He is SINGLING this horse! Ok, I'm all in, "Prime Time!" I took my seat and watched as they loaded into the gate for this five furlong turf sprint. She'd had a troubled start last time according to Nicoletti, but today she broke sharply from the 8-hole. She was caught wide in a four-horse duel into mid-turn, but then she cut loose and opened up. Again, the video looks like I was standing long the rail, not in my seat in Section 101....can't wait to video at Pimlico! Long gone!
Creative License had gone off at a fair 4/5 odds and so I would be cashing for nearly $40! Just a word about this handicapping selection. Some may say it's not fair to take credit for cashing on Nicoletti's pick, but I'll counter with two comments. First, the tools you use as a handicapper - at least for me - are NOT just the numbers in the Form. I always am reading what is printed about the racing world, and frequently look at handicapping video selections. These often influence my picks. And secondly, especially when I'm using the paper Form, I always read what the DRF handicapper has to say, and sometimes their comments lead me to reexamine the race and go with them. How and where you get your picks is a very open & esoteric art. This was no different. And hey, I was the one that made the decision to make the bet and it's MY money that was on the line. Just as it's my winnings now! WHOOO HOOO. Like the other Gulfstream races we were into the gate at Woodbine. The 7th was a Woodbine 40% Club pick for me. Trainer Mark Casse, according to the Progressive Handicapping Book, has won with 40% of his runners that are owned by Conquest Stables over the last two Woodbine seasons. Conquest Top Gun was such a horse. Automatic play for me. He was the even-money favorite and after tracking the leaders up close in third he swung out for he stretch and was gone. My 13th win on the day. I continued to miss in the graded events when Testa Rossi was an even fifth in the Grade 3 Beaugay at Belmont. But it wasn't long before I was back to watching live at Gulfstream and again on my phone from Toronto. The 8th at Gulfstream I had listed as my "BET of the Day." Requite had debuted last summer at Saratoga and had drawn off with authority. He made his first start against winners in the Grade 1 Hopeful where he ran into Todd Pletcher's Competitive Edge. All that one has done since winning that event was win the Tamarac Handicap here then the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile last weekend on the Derby undercard. He was considered for the Preakness, but has opted to run next in a graded event on the Belmont undercard. So Requite had seen top company. Add to those factors that the runner-up from his maiden win had come back to win his maiden AND in allowance company, then ran in the Grade 2 Peter Pan earlier today. I was correct in my analysis, he IS the BET of the Day. But.....I just cashed on a prime-time bet, and here. What are the chances to repeat the same thing? Maybe I should back down the bet? NO WAY! I am right and while the chances and odds may be against it, the horses were clearly worth the play. Requite stalked the two dueling leaders through the turn and then moved powerfully to the front as they turned for home. MUCH the best! Another win....number 14!
The crowd had let him go off at a very sweet 8/5 so I was cashing this ticket for over $50! Hip Hip Horray! And even though I'd just taken a photo of my winning "prime time" score after the 7th, I just had to have another....this one with the TWO "prime time" tickets! What A Day! But before I could take that photo, I had to see the Woodbine race! This was the Grade 3 Hendrie, the feature. A month ago today's favorite, Unspurned had rallied from mid-pack to take down the Grade 3 Whimsical. The front-runner that day had been Skylander Girl. That race had been at six furlongs, and after pressing the lead for a half mile, Skylander Girl had been narrowly in front through the stretch before weakening to be second, while daylight clear of the show. Today's Hendrie would be at 6 1/2 furlongs and the common-sense approach would be that at an extra sixteenth of a mile Unspurned would be even more likely to run down Skylander Girl again. I didn't see it that way. I thought that today she'd be all alone on the lead and maybe, just maybe might steal the race. The fact that she was a big 6/1 in the program was a bonus attraction. Just after Requite crossed the finish line I went inside to watch the race - it had started a little later than the other Woodbine races. The field was approaching the far turn and what's this......on the lead is Unspurned! What????? And who's stalking? Skylander Girl! This is NOT how I'd seen the race play out. But just then the rider on my filly gave her a chirp and she glided past the 4/5 favorite and was quickly in front by four! Heads turned for home and now the rider on the chalk got busy. Too late my friend, Skylander Girl is cruising on a six length lead and kissed the field good-bye! When I'd last seen the odds she had been wavering around 8/5 or 9/5. But as they flashed up the slo-mo replay her odds showed at a huge 3/1. OH MY! I had doubled down on the bet and was going to collect over $40! Can I say it again, what a day!
No sooner had the prices gone up than we were off in Louisville. Churchill's 9th was under way, a one-turn mile for maiden specials. I had only gone with a minimum play because Academic Break had run back-to-back seconds in her two career starts. But it should be noted that the last was in open allowance company so today she was dropping back into the maiden ranks. And I'd noted she got a big rider upgrade today. As the field hit the far turn I'm looking all over and where is the #4, my horse? Oh there, dead last! I glanced down to re-read my notes and now I saw that the "rider upgrade" was to Julian Leparoux who seems to always stiff my horses. GRRRRRR. But then he gave Academic Break her cue and she just blew by without taking a deep breath, last to first for my sixteenth win of the day. I took my latest collection of winning tickets to my favorite teller - she's a cute blonde, named Kim who has a twin sister ..... how ironic is that? Anyway as I stepped up I asked, "Have you ever seen the movie Let It Ride?" She replied that she had. I said, "Well, today I'm Trotter. I am on such a roll." Really she asked. I said, "Yes, I've won SIXTEEN races so far and most of them were punched out by you on this machine." She held her finger to her lips, and said, "Shhhh, you don't want to jinx your luck!" I told her that I'd thought about that when I talked about my streak on video after my 12th win, but I just kept on going.
As I crossed over to the other simulcast area they were loading into the gate for the 4th at Santa Anita, another turf sprint. This one had been even "easier" to handicap. The adage on these kinds of races is to look for who's had success down the hill already. The field was a combined 2-for-17 down the hill. One win had come from an 0-for-11 maiden who broke his maiden last out in a maiden claiming race and the other was by Vanlose Stairway who won down the hill in maiden special weight company. Today she was making her third start off a layoff and was dropping in class. She trailed the field until they approached the dirt track where she moved up five wide. It was a calvary charge at the furlong pole with at least four of them head-bobbing for the lead. Two of them emerged with the most momentum and 'Stairway was one of them. One head up and one head down as the lead changed hands back and forth until finally in the last fifty yards she edged clear to WIN! MAN, I'm having such a day. Before the prices could be posted they were into the gate and off at Pimlico. This was a claiming event going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I liked Examen who had spent the winter in Tampa. She'd won a $25K claiming event and then run in allowance company. Back down in for a tag today. She tracked the leaders to the far turn, seemed to stall, then in mid-stretch found her best stride to catch the leader in deep stretch and edge clear to score. WIN NUMBER 18! The prices came up for both wins - I'd only had the minimum at Pimlico so I would get about $10 for that one; but at Santa Anita I had doubled the bet and she'd paid much better; I'll cash for almost $30 on that win. At Monmouth Dubai Time was the 2/1 favorite and ran third on the turf. At Woodbine I really thought that Roaming - a Woodbine 40% Club play - would win. So did the crowd who sent her off at 7/5, but she was only second best while chasing a wire-to-wire 4/5 favorite. But, it wasn't long before I was back to the winner's circle. In the finale at Churchill Downs I liked Canny Nanny in a nw2x allowance turf event. She was 4/2-2-0 at the distance and a perfect 6-for-6 in the money on the grass. She tracked the leaders through the far turn while in mid-pack the had no where to run. But as the pack turned for home the rail opened up and she dove down inside. Inside the sixteenth pole she surged and burst to the front in the shadow of the wire to win drawing clear. The payoff was an astounding $9.60 and I'd doubled the bet......nearly $50! WOW. Then came the two most disappointing results. In the first of the two Grade 1 races on the day I went against Twilight Eclipse who'd disappointed for me on Florida Derby Day and went with Imagining, who'd beat him last year AND won this Grade 1 Man O'War last year. Wrong on both counts. Imagining never fired and Twilight Eclipse was just up to win for the first time in two years. Then in my BET of the Day, the Grade 1 Vanity I had wanted to bet Beholder. But she spiked a fever on Wednesday and was withdrawn. That left Warren's Veneda who just towered over this field. I knew she'd be 1/9 and there was only one slim chance she'd lose. One of her four rivals was a Euro transplant who had won her NA debut on the turf. She'd never run on the dirt, and she had Mike Smith on today. The other three had proven they could not run as fast as the obvious favorite, but with this one while she had not proven she could, she also had not proven she could not. Too much to overcome I thought. Warren's Veneda cruised up to the leaders turning for home but could not get by an was an even third....at 1/9. Wow. And to complete the trifecta of disappointment Favorite Tale was second best at 6/5 in Monmouth's Decathlon Stakes. But I won my twentieth at Arlington when Hadrian exploded out of the pack to score at 4/5. The race was supposed to be on the grass, but was moved to the synthetic main track. At Arlington, on their main track, which plays "like turf" I often stick with turf runners when moved to the main track. I did this here, but I did back down from a triple investment to a double.
So the $3.60 payoff only got me back $18 instead of the $27 I would have had. I went to cash and make my two late bets with my girl Kimberly but she had a line in front of her. But her twin Karen was free. She cashed for me and as I walked by her sister's window I held up my sheets.....she smiled and I said, "....see, four more!" "Keep it going!" she replied. Well, I missed on the last two, but man what a day. Twenty wins from forty-one selections and a flat-bet profit.
May 9 Video Recap: Part 2
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