Saturday May 16: Preakness Day!
Today was a long day, but a WONDERFUL day! I left for Pimlico at 8:30 am - bags packed and loaded in the car, checked out of the hotel - and arrived at the Tilghman Island Inn on Chesapeake Bay about 10 pm after a two hour drive from Pimlico after a full day of racing. But what happened in between was amazing! Let's get to it....... I figured that today's traffic would be heavier, but conversely with it being Saturday I believed that I would not have a bad drive. Also, unlike yesterday where I wanted time to explore the facility and purchase my shirts, etc., today I knew the lay of the land and had no plans to buy anything else. Sure enough the drive there was without incident and I probably arrived about ten minutes quicker. But this worked to my advantage as my parking spot in the Clubhouse Lot was in the second row. Knowing I wanted to get out as quickly as possible for the long drive to the inn, this was excellent! I followed the same plan as yesterday, in fact I utilized the same usher on the second floor to take my Preakness photo. I was smart enough to have him put the jumbotron over my shoulder so that the background would be different today :) I did a little wandering but it seemed like no time before it was time for the 10:30 am opening race.
Today's first race today was a five-furlong maiden special event, but here was the twist....it was for two-year-olds! My first thought when I'd begun handicapping was that this would be an "obvious" pass with the juveniles just starting their careers at this early point of the year. But lo and behold I found a horse I liked. Finnegan had debuted for Wesley Ward as the 9/5 favorite - his 2yo are nearly always well bet, especially at the Keeneland spring meet - but he had a troubled start. He was still able to run well and finish second AND was nearly NINE lengths clear of the show runner! Today he moved onto the turf. But all the Ward stats were good: 2nd time starters at 27%, blinkers off at 27%, turf sprinters at 29%. The runner I anticipated to be the main threat scratched out of the race and as the betting opened Finnegan was being HAMMERED at 3/5. So I made my first "power move" of the day and doubled the bet. Finnegan broke sharply from post 8 and just as they completed the opening quarter he'd worked his way down to the rail and was now clear of the field. He burst clear of the field with a quick turn of acceleration and was L-O-N-G gone! I had my first win of the day an it wasn't even 11 am yet!
I didn't care that he was the odds-on choice at 1/2, I was cashing for $15 to start the day! The second was the Deputed Testimony Starter Handicap. I thought that Fish Whistler made pull off the mild upset over likely favorite Stolen Love. The Fish was being sent out by a local barn that was winning at a huge 40% and the leading rider - Trevor McCarthy (who's birthday was today by the way); and McCarthy was winning at a 39% rate for a $2.20 ROI. These good numbers were hard to go past....and then there was this fact: The race required that you had run for $7.5K or less, and the only time Fish Whistler had run that low, he drawn off by nine widening lengths. I was on board! When I saw Stolen Love was scratched I anticipated I'd probably be the favorite. But the crowd poured their money on an entry that had not even drawn a second glance from me. Fish Whistler broke on top and took them into the far turn. He was collared by a 33-1 longshot who actually put his nose in front as they turned for home. But McCarthy had something left and Fish Whistler drew off to win by daylight! WOW, two-for-two!
And the best news? He'd left the gate at 7/2 odds....paid $9.60 and I was collecting nearly $25 on a minimum bet! The third race was a maiden special for sophomores. It was a turf route and I went with a son of Kitten's Joy - who love the turf. I knew that Chiropractor would NEVER be 50/1 as listed in the DRF. He was sent out by Tom Proctor for Glen Hills Farm - and you may recall this combination had won for me yesterday with Conscience. I was right about the odds, he left the gate at 2/1, but wrong about the result. He was carried very wide into the first turn. He rated off the pace, made a bid on the far turn but flattened out to be fourth while the winner was a big price payoff of $21.20. The fourth we were again on the turf, and this was the first of the stakes races. The James Murphy for three-year-olds was a one-mile event. I really liked Force The Pass. This lightly raced colt had begun his career by breaking dead last from an outside post at Gulfstream but was flying late to only be beaten a length and a half while second. He scored in his second start and in his last start he won the Cutler Bay Stakes. The two Beyers he had earned in those last two were among the best in the field and he projected to sit a nice stalking trip. He left the gate at 2/1 but chased the 7/2 winner - who incidentally my track buddy from Friday had mentioned he liked, but then failed to bet him! Speaking of the guy sharing the box with me, the other two guys showed up today.....one from New York and the other locally, who were friends. And those guys were just like the guy from Friday - just "regular track guys" who had the same opinion and passion for racing as I did. I had such a great day all day Saturday talking with all three of them. It really made what was already a great weekend of racing even a notch better! The fourth was the second stakes of the day, but the first graded stakes: The Gr 3 Maryland Sprint. There looked to be a lot of speed, and the most likely speed of the speed, Happy My Way, was an "obvious" play against for me. He'd been one of my best bets on this day last year and had wired the field at odds on. But I'd seen him on Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream. My buddy from Friday remarked to me that this race was strictly going to go through Happy My Way. I told him, you bet how you like, but I saw him on Millions Day, and I pointed the race out in the program. His remark, "Wow, he just quit there." And I told him, he'd been TONS the best and was loose on the lead before he folded up his tent without any excuse. I added that he just was not the same this year, I'd seen him twice in Florida. I was all against. I went with Coup de Grace who was from the Larry Jones barn. This guy had won the Grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga last year - that spoke to his talent. And he had three sharp works for today, including back-to-back bullets. He left the gate as the co-favorite at 9/5, but was away slowly and made a wide rally to earn a non-threatening fourth place finish. Back-to-back losses with triple investments after losing the Chiropractor race put me on a three-race losing skid. It was time to do SOMETHING! So, I got myself the signature drink of the Preakness, a Black-Eyed Susan in a signature glass. I wanted the moment on film so I asked a security girl at the top of the stairs to take my photo, and the result is at the left. The sixth was an allowance race, a five furlong turf race. Over half the field had raced for a claiming tag, and all of those were in conditioned non-winners of two LIFETIME events. Nearly all the others were recent maiden winners - not the strongest allowance field assembled in recent memory! But one horse stood out to me - Hooligan. He was being sent out by Wesley Ward - who if you remember excels in turf sprints. But here was what caught my eye.....he'd debuted in a Saratoga dirt sprint and ran poorly. For his second start he was put in a state-bred STAKES race, on the turf. Not only did he WIN the stakes, as a maiden remember, but he left the gates at 1/5! Think somebody knew something? Duh! The problem was that came last summer. Still, John Velazquez on board and the lesser company today I thought he would be a good bet. I also guessed he'd be at least a fair price, not anything close to the 20/1 odds listed in the DRF. He was bet down early, but his odds floated up by post time. He broke cleanly and was battling on the lead from the start. But once the field turned for home he began to edge clear and he won by a solid length and a half - not overpowering, but a win! 
And trust me, after three straight I was loving the winner's circle. Ironically I'd texted Kim a photo of me with my drink and told her I was "celebrating" the three losses, and she texted back that she would "send me good vibes" - and I won! :) Because he'd been bet down so much early, I'd decided to up the bet and doubled the bet. Hooligan floated all the way up to 2/1 at post time, so I was collecting a cool $30 for the win! NICE! The 7th was another stakes race. This was the Sir Barton Stakes for three-year-olds. This race is basically set up for those colts who are stakes runners, but just not quite good enough for the Preakness. As I looked over the field my first impression was that this was a VERY good collection of runners that would most likely gather their share of black type over the course of the rest of the year. But several factors led me to settle on what I thought was a solid play, Fame and Power. First he was out of the Bob Baffert barn - this guy is the west coast version of Todd Pletcher.....he's loaded with talent! Second, the Juddmonte Farm runner had earned back-to-back 93 Beyer figures which were better than every LIFETIME figure earned in the field, with one exception. Third, while he'd weakened to be third last time out, but that was easily forgiven......he was trying two turns for the first time, he had shipped from So Cal to Keeneland, AND he was running in the Grade 3 Lexington. The race looked to have some real quality to it because the winner from that race, Divining Rod was considered a viable upset contender in today's $1.5 million Grade 1 Preakness! But the facts were even stronger - since that effort in Lexington, Baffert had kept this guy in Kentucky at his Churchill base. Fame and Power had put in not one, not two, but THREE sub-one minute five furlong bullet works - YOWZA! He looked locked and loaded for a big effort on those works alone. But considering he had paired Beyers, often a sign of an impending break-out race, he would probably move forward today. And finally, he had the rail and looked to be the LONE SPEED! Somehow in pite of all this the crowd let him leave the gate at a remarkable 2/1! He broke sharply and was clear on the lead. The first quarter was pretty quick, :23 and change; but the half mile split of :46.3 was REALLY quick. The guy to my right (the new friend, the one from the Baltimore area) said after the half mile - "you can cash your tickets, this guy is GONE." I thought that was a bit premature considering how fast Fame and Power was going, but I was sure hoping he was right. And he was. L-O-N-G gone, even pulling away through the stretch. Impressive! It was my fourth win on the day. The lines had begun to draw out so I'd made both the bet on Hooligan and Fame and Power prior to the 6th race. And I can't explain why I didn't take a "Win #3" photo, since I'd already done separate #1 and #2 pics, but I didn't. So I took my two winning tickets and went to our friendly usher at the bottom of the stairs. She'd been keeping up with my scores since the beginning of Friday you see. So I asked if she would do the honors of photographing me with today's Win #3 and Win #4. See at right the result! But wait, I haven't even told you the best part.....in the Grade 3 Lexington after Fame and Power weakened, he was not only run down by the winner but he'd also been caught by a colt named Donworth. This guy was running again today. I thought it was oh-so-obvious that he would NOT catch Fame and Power today......second time route, and those sizzling works? That alone should have sold you on the fact that Fame and Power was long gone from Dunworth. But knowing he had the rail AND was the lone speed? Well duh. But instead the crowd had really gone down on Donworth, making him the 1/2 favorite in the Sir Barton. All the more money for me to collect as Fame and Power left the gate at a remarkable 2/1 price! I was cashing for my second consecutive $30 win ticket. Wow - what a day! 
The 8th was on the turf, but I thought it was a real toss-up. I didn't like ANY of the turf runners, but I was willin to bet Lunar Rock if it came off the turf. And there HAD been a lot of talk about rain for today. But, the "experts" were calling for the rain to come a little after 6 pm. The good news - the day's races would be under good racing conditions and all the turf races would have firm going. The bad news - that was RIGHT before post time of the Preakness. And let me add that the forecast was NOT for rain, oh no.....it was for severe thunderstorms! The race stayed on the turf and the turf horse I'd considered did not fire - another good "no play" decision.
The 9th was the Grade 2 Gallorette going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Two interesting items on this race - first, I saw that Watsdachances was in the field. She'd won early in her 2yo campaign for me and I'd chased her for several races thereafter and she'd never won again - she was a play against. Second, one of my favorite angles in turf stakes is the "first-time European" angle. That had worked for me on Florida Derby Day when Beauty Parlor was a "day-maker" paying $14.60 with my prime-time bet earning me back nearly $150. In here was Mango Diva, a Euro first-timer in North America. She was a multiple Group stakes winner with Gary Stevens. I doubled the bet, but she was a distant 7th at 6//1. And get this.....Watsdachances won, paid $6.80. Good for her, but I'd still not bet her! In the 10th it was the Grade 3 Chick Lang - a six furlong sprint for 3yo colts. I thought this was one of the toughest races on the card. I liked Blame Jim, just enough to bet him, but just the minimum. He got my attention by running a good second behind Stanford, who nearly pulled off the 8/1 upset of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. The crowd agreed with my assessment and was the 3/1 second choice at post time. But he was outrun and was fortunate to finish fourth I thought. On to the 11th race, a turf sprint stakes, The Very One. Last year I'd won this race when Ageless rallied up the rail, getting a very lucky trip when the rail opened for her. But in spite of the large field, I saw a LOT of speed signed on here and I thought she was clearly the best of the closers. A couple of other factors were very intriguing to me. After winning this race last year she'd gone on to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint....not only was that at 6 1/2 furlongs instead of five, it was down the hillside course AND across the country. And remember, this race is a listed stakes, that's a Grade 1! She'd run a good 4th, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. Her past performances show that she does NOT like give in the ground, but last time out she had run over a yielding course and was a good second. She should move forward off that....and add in the fact that the race was the Giant's Causeway Stakes, the SAME RACE she'd used as a prep to win this last year. All of this made me believe she had a really good chance. My only reluctance was jockey Julian Leparoux who seems to always give MY horses a less than quality ride, but I seem to have won with him several times in the last few months. The crowd bet Ageless down to 6/5 at post time. She sat a little closer to the lead as the field sped into the far turn. As the leaders came out of the turn Leparoux eased her outside of runners and she burst to the front and was a comfortable winner - my fifth win on the day. MAN I'm having a good day, again!
The pay-off was $4.60, so with my double investment I was going to collect close to $25. The twelfth was the Grade 2 Dixie Stakes on the turf. Another open event, but I'd settled on my Florida Derby Day "Best" - War Correspondent. But he was a scratch this morning, so now I had no play. I looked for an alternative and even wrote one on my sheet. But the closer it got to post time the less inclined I was to play him and decided the prudent move was to pass. My "pick" wasn't even close, so I was glad that I made another smart decision. I did the math in round numbers and could tell that for today I was "winning" for the day, but I wasn't having a "big" day. So with my upcoming bet on American Pharoah the outcome of the day - profit or loss - would ride on his back.
In the early betting, Friday and all day Saturday, American Pharoah had hovered at 4/5. I thought that was a fair and considering I thought he was going to dazzle today a good price. So my plan was to go $50 to win. Brad had asked me about my betting and told me he wanted to match my bet. My Mom wanted $10 to win from her Derby winnings. Well, there was some added drama in that American Pharoah had drawn the rail and many handicappers had made a big deal of this - I didn't think it mattered. But then the worst case scenario began to play out.......remember at the beginning of this entry I talked about the weather? Well, following the win by Ageless in the 11th race, The Very One Stakes, I had gone upstairs and stood in line to cash my ticket and then make the Preakness bet. It took me about 20 minutes or so, including having my picture taken for my fifth win, and then I headed back down to my seat. As I sat down I looked out and the track was wet! Not only that but the sky was now a dark gray and lightning was evident in the distance. WOW what a change. The four of us talked about how if the race were run in the normal time frame of less than 30 minutes from the finish of the Dixie they would have a fast track; but with the near hour before the race it looked like a storm was a near certainty. Sure enough, just as the horses came onto the turf course to saddle in the open the monsoons opened up. It was a driving rain with winds that were whipping the infield tents around and led to management telling everyone to evacuate the infield! When the Navy women's glee club performed the signature song, "Maryland, My Maryland" it was hurricane-like conditions and you could not even see the backstretch any more! But with about ten minutes to post the weather subsided and it was "just raining." But the "damage" was done....the crowd, those brave enough - and there were a lot of them - to stay outside were soaked, and the horses & jockeys were drenched. I read later that Gary Stevens, jockey for Firing Line said his equipment added at least 35 pounds to his assigned weight, and jockey Victor Espinoza of American Pharoah said his boots were full of water - he even dumped water out on camera for everyone! As the last two horses loaded in the gate a terrific lighting bolt cracked in the distance! Wow, what a setting!
The four of us had discussed - as had Jeff and I - about what would be American Pharoah's strategy. I had a couple of scenarios in mind prior to the storm, but now it seemed clear to me that he would be gunned to the front and take them on a merry chase. As I told the one fella, even if they try to run with him none of these horses can go that fast. Sure enough he was hustled to the lead and pressed through a wicked :22.4 opening quarter and a :46.2 half mile. Mr. Z was the longshot challenger but he was cooked by the far turn. As the field began to close the gap heading into and through the turn Victor Espinoza opened him up again, and as you can see & hear in the video, the thunderous and delighted roar of the crowd was very exciting. He drew off in a DAZZLING display, just as I'd thought.
What a great experience! I had my Friday pal film me and then the usher at the bottom of the stairs take my photo as everyone was abuzz with the excitement. The mutual prices came up and American Pharoah paid a more-than-fair $3.80; with my $50 bet I would be cashing for $95, as would Brad. My Mom would collect almost $20. It wasn't until then that I even thought about who else had hit the board. I was just certain that neither of the two Derby horses had run second. I wasn't sure, but I thought his trifecta tickets were also no good because I KNEW Firing Line had been distanced badly. Dortmund had run with the leaders into the lane, but I was pretty sure he was outfinished. It was then that my Friday pal, as he looked through his tickets, said...."What were the numbers?" The three of us looked at the board and called out, "1-5-7-2" and I could tell from his expression he could not believe it, "Why?" I asked. He looked up with a stunned expression and said, "My wife hit the superfecta!" We all looked at the board and the guy to my right was the first to see it. He said, "For a $1 that pays $1,900! You are cashing for nearly one thousand dollars!" Then the Friday pal said, "No, she has TWO 50 cent tickets, I get the entire $1900!" I congratulated him and then he flashed two more tickets, "I have the exacta AND the trifecta as well!" Oh my I said, you need your photo taken, so I snapped the pic at left quickly of him. He had to be cashing for nearly $2000, because the runner-up was the one horse that nearly everyone - including two national broadcasters - had said was the "1-9 favorite to run last!" Ironically his trainer has hit the board nearly every year with the second or third place horse in the Derby at huge odds, just like this. And the payoffs were keyed by the fact that the two Derby horses were out of the top three. Dortmund (#2) had managed fourth - so close for Jeff, although it was over seven lengths from third to fourth, so really not that close.
I headed upstairs to cash my ticket and shoot my wrap-up video. I started to leave my notebook but then thought better of it because I didn't know if the guys would be there when I got back, but I left my souvenir glass under my chair. After cashing and doing the video I came down to the emptying boxes and saw the last of my pals leaving and he had picked up my glass. I called out to him and got his attention. He apologized, but I told him no worries I would have picked up the glass had he left it and I thought he was gone for the day. We talked about one day getting together at the Belmont where he has 18 seats in his name. So for the day I finished with SIX wins from eleven selections and a profit of more than $75. That made for a weekend total of 11-for-22 .... an amazing 50% hit rate.....and nearly $100 in profit for the weekend. It could not have gone much better. What if I'd won even one of the two "best" bets on Friday? :))
Some final thoughts on the weekend at Pimlico......Friday had been a huge day for Pimlico. The final attendance was set at almost 43,000 with a handle of $18.5 million on the day. That compared to attendance of 35,000 last year and the handle was the best in ten years. For Saturday, considering how smoothly the betting went and the ease of movement, at least in the areas the facility I was in, it was amazing to me that they set an all-time record for attendance with 131,680 fans on track! It "figures" because both Kentucky Derbies I went to each set a new attendance record! Something about when I go :) And the betting for Preakness Day was over $85 million - wow. It beat last year's total by almost $2 million. The weekend was a smashing success for not only me personally, the racing industry as a whole, but for Pimlico. So cool to have been there for all of this!
Below the highlight video are some fashion pictures from the day. And the story continues below that ...... the trip to the Eastern Shore, and some highlights of my stay on Tilghman Island. Keep following......
Preakness Fashion Photos
One of the side benefits to the storm was that the final race of the day was moved off the turf, obviously. And my pick was now no longer a play. This enabled me to leave early and head to the car for the drive to the Tilghman Island Inn. Luckily my sister's birthday gift of a portable charger would give me plenty of juice for the GPS after using the phone a lot during the day. I was down to about 50% battery, even though I'd had the phone off and on all day. I got to my car and was quickly in the lane to exit. Mild panic attack as the phone could not get any signal to get the map/directions/GPS signal. But by the time I'd hit the main street as we crawled along I had the directions. Two hours and change I was told. I had noted on my watch that it was about 7 pm when I walked out of Pimlico. And I noted the time again at 7:40 pm when I was on the Interstate out of Baltimore....what great time. It rained nearly the entire trip, up until the final half hour, and not a steady rain, but enough of a rain to make for difficult seeing on the trip, especially with the headlights from the opposite direction. But, I was able to find the Inn by 9:45 and when I walked in they were waiting on me. I was checked in and got into my room within minutes. I tried to call Kim but the room had next to no signal so I went out to the car and talked for a short while. I then texted with Jeff, and he and I had exchanged several during the drive as he lamented his decision to bet the way he did. Though he did say that he most regretted that he had to make the bet ahead of time - if he'd been on track he'd have bet straight to win; and I was sure he would have. But as I reminded him, we had this discussion ahead of time that if he bet for value he had to be willing to accept the fact he might not cash anything. Back in the room I worked on downloading the pictures and videos from my new Nikon camera and getting photos of the stakes winners off the Internet. Finally about 11:30 pm I was able to be unwound enough to get to bed.
I was up early and worked for a bit on the computer then went out to explore. The view down the dock onto the Chespeake Bay was well worth the drive, and I could now see the Inn and it was as advertised!
I got some coffee, worked on my web page for the weekend's racing and headed down to breakfast. I had a delicious breakfast of Crab Benedict, an obvious Maryland Eastern Shore twist on Eggs Benedict, and not only was it delicious, but the bacon was cooked EXACTLY how I like it - soft and chewy. Right after breakfast I got into "my room" - which was a deluxe room on the second floor with a balcony and had windows looking in two directions over the water.
I had originally planned to go sailing on this day. A couple of years ago I had planned a sailing adventure in Philadelphia on Pennsylvania Derby weekend, but it got cancelled at the last minute. So I had called two months ago and arranged for today's trip. I had asked to buy a ticket, but the captain's son told me they would certainly have plenty of room for just one more person. With the weather up in the air I called them after breakfast to ask which cruise they recommended - the 11-to-1 pm or the evening cruise from 6 to 8 pm. The gal who answered the phone told me the ship was being refurbished and there would be no cruises at all today. Sigh......But honestly, I had debated about wanting to go on the adventure last night because I was tired. I was glad the decision was out of my hands because I would have regretted MY making the decision to not go; now with no choice in the matter I could enjoy a relaxing day on the island. I had asked the girl at the main desk for a recommendation for a light lunch and she said to drive 10 minutes back towards Baltimore to the small town of St. Michael's - they would have lots of options and shops to explore. By the time lunch rolled around - I spent the rest of the morning enjoying my view and reading - I felt like just ice cream. I found this at an ice cream parlor and then had a nice facetime chat with Kim. I spent the afternoon relaxing and then headed to dinner at the Inn where I enjoyed a small steak, a sweet potato au gratin dish, and vegetables. Then topped it off with a unique amaretto bread pudding. I took a nice photo of the sunset and was ready for an early bedtime as I needed to be up and out the door by 4:30 am to drive to the Baltimore airport and my 8:45 flight home.
That trip was smooth and the fantastic weekend came to a close when I touched down at 11:15 am. Now, we'll look forward to three weeks and the Belmont Stakes where American Pharoah will try to become the first Triple Crown winner in over thirty years! How cool would it be if he can do it that I was able to see him run TWICE in his run to the crown? Awesome!
The pay-off was $4.60, so with my double investment I was going to collect close to $25. The twelfth was the Grade 2 Dixie Stakes on the turf. Another open event, but I'd settled on my Florida Derby Day "Best" - War Correspondent. But he was a scratch this morning, so now I had no play. I looked for an alternative and even wrote one on my sheet. But the closer it got to post time the less inclined I was to play him and decided the prudent move was to pass. My "pick" wasn't even close, so I was glad that I made another smart decision. I did the math in round numbers and could tell that for today I was "winning" for the day, but I wasn't having a "big" day. So with my upcoming bet on American Pharoah the outcome of the day - profit or loss - would ride on his back.
Analyzing The Preakness
Following the Derby I had said that I needed to see how he came out of the race before thinking about making him the bet and how much to make the bet. I had thought he would win the Derby for fun in a dominating fashion, but after getting a wide - but confident - trip, he'd had to work hard to earn his 1 length win over Firing Line, who surprised me by running that well. But since the Derby he'd seemed to bounce out as good as new and the more I looked at the race the more I thought we'd see the "REAL" American Pharoah today. I read an article by a DRF writer late last week where he put forth a theory that when I read it I said to myself, "THAT is what I think." Here's what he put forth - first, consider that prior to beginning the 2015 season he had last run in late September; so he was off for six months before making his sophomore debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. That race he was ultra impressive and wired field in hand, drawing the comments that it appeared he was "running downhill" the whole way; then in the Arkansas Derby, when we were there, he again drew off without ever being asked in a sensational performance. So the DRF writer said if you look at it, since September he'd really only had two "paid workouts." The Derby on the other hand made him work, and that race probably NOW has him race fit for a BIG effort in the Preakness. That made a lot of sense to me. Of course the other side of the coin was put forth by some that said the Derby would zap him and he'd regress. I doubted this. Then the past performances came out and American Pharoah earned identical 105 speed figures for the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby. When horses "pair up" figures they nearly always move forward in their next start. So combine the conditioning theory with the numbers and I was convinced he was going to put on a dazzling display today. There was no doubt in my mind he would win, and win convincingly. Now the question became how much to wager. Prior to the Derby I talked a lot with my son Jeff and we were in agreement that Derby Day was the one and only chance to get a price on him and IF you thought he was the horse then that was the day to strike. That led to me putting $100 to win and allowed me to score BIG with a $390 pay day. But today, in the Preakness, even money would be a huge payout, so this was NOT the day to strike big. Again this week Jeff and I talked about wagering strategies. I told him that for me the one thing I KNEW was that American Pharoah would win, and at less than even money. It was not going to be a money making race. I also said that I thought you could throw out BOTH the Derby runner-up and show horse, who most felt were clearly not only the biggest threat to beat American Pharoah but nearly certain to fill out the exacta and/or trifecta. I explained to Jeff that I thought there was at least a 50-50 chance they'd miss the board, and that was your money making chance. But, as I explained to him, considering I believed there was just a good a chance of them missing as hitting, I didn't think it was a good idea to bet that way. The more we talked about strategies I finally said to Jeff, there are three options here: (1) bet American Pharoah strictly to win and be happy to get what ever you get and enjoy having a chance to see a Triple Crown winner in action. (2) bet the two other Derby horses to run out of the money for a score, but be willing to accept you have the winner, but don't cash a ticket......or bet them TO hit the board, again accepting that if they DO miss, you had the winner but don't cash; or (3) to play the race with American Pharoah to win, with the longshots to run second, AND the other two Derby horses to run second and vary the bets. I laid out a plan to Jeff that if you had a $20 exacta with the two Derby favorites, those would probably get back a little more than $125; and a $10 exacta with Danzig Moon and Divining Rod, which would pay about $150 as they would be the 3rd and 4th choices; then play a $5 exacta "saver" with the other three, that would probably pay $75 or so, and you'd get back $150-$175.....so for $75 you'd collect between $125 and $200 for a profit of about $100. But, as I told him, that was a "safe" way to play and not a "money making" strategy. In the end Jeff was convinced the other Derby horses would run second - one of them for sure, and on the off chance an outsider was second, then one of the two Derby also-rans would certainly fill out the trifecta. I told him those were good bets for making money, but you ran the risk of missing completely if neither hits the board. I told him I would never make that bet because I was CERTAIN that Firing Line was a certain off-the-board horse. He'd always had a minimum of six weeks between races and now he was back on two races. AND he'd just run the race of his life....a classic case of a bounce candidate to me.
The Race
In the early betting, Friday and all day Saturday, American Pharoah had hovered at 4/5. I thought that was a fair and considering I thought he was going to dazzle today a good price. So my plan was to go $50 to win. Brad had asked me about my betting and told me he wanted to match my bet. My Mom wanted $10 to win from her Derby winnings. Well, there was some added drama in that American Pharoah had drawn the rail and many handicappers had made a big deal of this - I didn't think it mattered. But then the worst case scenario began to play out.......remember at the beginning of this entry I talked about the weather? Well, following the win by Ageless in the 11th race, The Very One Stakes, I had gone upstairs and stood in line to cash my ticket and then make the Preakness bet. It took me about 20 minutes or so, including having my picture taken for my fifth win, and then I headed back down to my seat. As I sat down I looked out and the track was wet! Not only that but the sky was now a dark gray and lightning was evident in the distance. WOW what a change. The four of us talked about how if the race were run in the normal time frame of less than 30 minutes from the finish of the Dixie they would have a fast track; but with the near hour before the race it looked like a storm was a near certainty. Sure enough, just as the horses came onto the turf course to saddle in the open the monsoons opened up. It was a driving rain with winds that were whipping the infield tents around and led to management telling everyone to evacuate the infield! When the Navy women's glee club performed the signature song, "Maryland, My Maryland" it was hurricane-like conditions and you could not even see the backstretch any more! But with about ten minutes to post the weather subsided and it was "just raining." But the "damage" was done....the crowd, those brave enough - and there were a lot of them - to stay outside were soaked, and the horses & jockeys were drenched. I read later that Gary Stevens, jockey for Firing Line said his equipment added at least 35 pounds to his assigned weight, and jockey Victor Espinoza of American Pharoah said his boots were full of water - he even dumped water out on camera for everyone! As the last two horses loaded in the gate a terrific lighting bolt cracked in the distance! Wow, what a setting!
The four of us had discussed - as had Jeff and I - about what would be American Pharoah's strategy. I had a couple of scenarios in mind prior to the storm, but now it seemed clear to me that he would be gunned to the front and take them on a merry chase. As I told the one fella, even if they try to run with him none of these horses can go that fast. Sure enough he was hustled to the lead and pressed through a wicked :22.4 opening quarter and a :46.2 half mile. Mr. Z was the longshot challenger but he was cooked by the far turn. As the field began to close the gap heading into and through the turn Victor Espinoza opened him up again, and as you can see & hear in the video, the thunderous and delighted roar of the crowd was very exciting. He drew off in a DAZZLING display, just as I'd thought.
What a great experience! I had my Friday pal film me and then the usher at the bottom of the stairs take my photo as everyone was abuzz with the excitement. The mutual prices came up and American Pharoah paid a more-than-fair $3.80; with my $50 bet I would be cashing for $95, as would Brad. My Mom would collect almost $20. It wasn't until then that I even thought about who else had hit the board. I was just certain that neither of the two Derby horses had run second. I wasn't sure, but I thought his trifecta tickets were also no good because I KNEW Firing Line had been distanced badly. Dortmund had run with the leaders into the lane, but I was pretty sure he was outfinished. It was then that my Friday pal, as he looked through his tickets, said...."What were the numbers?" The three of us looked at the board and called out, "1-5-7-2" and I could tell from his expression he could not believe it, "Why?" I asked. He looked up with a stunned expression and said, "My wife hit the superfecta!" We all looked at the board and the guy to my right was the first to see it. He said, "For a $1 that pays $1,900! You are cashing for nearly one thousand dollars!" Then the Friday pal said, "No, she has TWO 50 cent tickets, I get the entire $1900!" I congratulated him and then he flashed two more tickets, "I have the exacta AND the trifecta as well!" Oh my I said, you need your photo taken, so I snapped the pic at left quickly of him. He had to be cashing for nearly $2000, because the runner-up was the one horse that nearly everyone - including two national broadcasters - had said was the "1-9 favorite to run last!" Ironically his trainer has hit the board nearly every year with the second or third place horse in the Derby at huge odds, just like this. And the payoffs were keyed by the fact that the two Derby horses were out of the top three. Dortmund (#2) had managed fourth - so close for Jeff, although it was over seven lengths from third to fourth, so really not that close. I headed upstairs to cash my ticket and shoot my wrap-up video. I started to leave my notebook but then thought better of it because I didn't know if the guys would be there when I got back, but I left my souvenir glass under my chair. After cashing and doing the video I came down to the emptying boxes and saw the last of my pals leaving and he had picked up my glass. I called out to him and got his attention. He apologized, but I told him no worries I would have picked up the glass had he left it and I thought he was gone for the day. We talked about one day getting together at the Belmont where he has 18 seats in his name. So for the day I finished with SIX wins from eleven selections and a profit of more than $75. That made for a weekend total of 11-for-22 .... an amazing 50% hit rate.....and nearly $100 in profit for the weekend. It could not have gone much better. What if I'd won even one of the two "best" bets on Friday? :))
Some final thoughts on the weekend at Pimlico......Friday had been a huge day for Pimlico. The final attendance was set at almost 43,000 with a handle of $18.5 million on the day. That compared to attendance of 35,000 last year and the handle was the best in ten years. For Saturday, considering how smoothly the betting went and the ease of movement, at least in the areas the facility I was in, it was amazing to me that they set an all-time record for attendance with 131,680 fans on track! It "figures" because both Kentucky Derbies I went to each set a new attendance record! Something about when I go :) And the betting for Preakness Day was over $85 million - wow. It beat last year's total by almost $2 million. The weekend was a smashing success for not only me personally, the racing industry as a whole, but for Pimlico. So cool to have been there for all of this!
Below the highlight video are some fashion pictures from the day. And the story continues below that ...... the trip to the Eastern Shore, and some highlights of my stay on Tilghman Island. Keep following......
May 16 - Preakness Day Highlight Video
Preakness Fashion Photos
Tilghman Island Inn on the Chesapeake Bay
Saturday May 16/Sunday May 17
Saturday May 16/Sunday May 17
I was up early and worked for a bit on the computer then went out to explore. The view down the dock onto the Chespeake Bay was well worth the drive, and I could now see the Inn and it was as advertised!
I got some coffee, worked on my web page for the weekend's racing and headed down to breakfast. I had a delicious breakfast of Crab Benedict, an obvious Maryland Eastern Shore twist on Eggs Benedict, and not only was it delicious, but the bacon was cooked EXACTLY how I like it - soft and chewy. Right after breakfast I got into "my room" - which was a deluxe room on the second floor with a balcony and had windows looking in two directions over the water.
I had originally planned to go sailing on this day. A couple of years ago I had planned a sailing adventure in Philadelphia on Pennsylvania Derby weekend, but it got cancelled at the last minute. So I had called two months ago and arranged for today's trip. I had asked to buy a ticket, but the captain's son told me they would certainly have plenty of room for just one more person. With the weather up in the air I called them after breakfast to ask which cruise they recommended - the 11-to-1 pm or the evening cruise from 6 to 8 pm. The gal who answered the phone told me the ship was being refurbished and there would be no cruises at all today. Sigh......But honestly, I had debated about wanting to go on the adventure last night because I was tired. I was glad the decision was out of my hands because I would have regretted MY making the decision to not go; now with no choice in the matter I could enjoy a relaxing day on the island. I had asked the girl at the main desk for a recommendation for a light lunch and she said to drive 10 minutes back towards Baltimore to the small town of St. Michael's - they would have lots of options and shops to explore. By the time lunch rolled around - I spent the rest of the morning enjoying my view and reading - I felt like just ice cream. I found this at an ice cream parlor and then had a nice facetime chat with Kim. I spent the afternoon relaxing and then headed to dinner at the Inn where I enjoyed a small steak, a sweet potato au gratin dish, and vegetables. Then topped it off with a unique amaretto bread pudding. I took a nice photo of the sunset and was ready for an early bedtime as I needed to be up and out the door by 4:30 am to drive to the Baltimore airport and my 8:45 flight home.
That trip was smooth and the fantastic weekend came to a close when I touched down at 11:15 am. Now, we'll look forward to three weeks and the Belmont Stakes where American Pharoah will try to become the first Triple Crown winner in over thirty years! How cool would it be if he can do it that I was able to see him run TWICE in his run to the crown? Awesome!
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