Road To The Breeders' Cup 2015: Kentucky Derby 141 Weekend

May 1-2: A Derby Weekend To Remember!

It was indeed a weekend to remember, one for the ages! The weekend did not start as I anticipated, but finished better than even I could have hoped. I entered the weekend with high hopes after last year's Derby weekend. In 2014 my "Bet of the Weekend" had been in the Oaks where I scored with the biggest single win bet I've ever made on Untapable; and then I scored with my "BEST" on Derby Day in the Woodford Reserve Turf to collect a little over $100 profit on both days. Those two days carried the handicapping bankroll into deep August and I was hopeful that the same would play out in 2015. But, my first concern was that it appeared for Friday, Kentucky Oaks Day, that (a) there were no standouts and (b) the races looked very open. That could make for nice scores, or difficult to find the winners......

Friday May 1: Oaks Day

I started my handicapping on Tuesday evening when the entries were released for the stakes races and I set up my web pages for an online analysis of each horse in each race. And then by Wednesday afternoon I went back through the entire card and handicapped the races for the winning picks and the bets to make. The one common theme to the day was that unlike most big days, I did not have a very definitive feeling on my winning picks. Don't get me wrong, I felt strongly enough to win.....but in each of the major races there was at least one other horse that I wondered about. The first race went off at 10:30 am so I playe the first three races online. In the opener, a nw1x for 3yo, I liked Chide who had debuted with a sharp score. The daughter of champion Blame, who won the BC Classic over the Churchill main course - giving unbeaten Zenyatta her lone career loss as we watched from the rail - went off as the 4/5 favorite. She was too far back and came weaving though the field to be second, but no threat to the winner.

In the second we were on the turf for maiden 3yo and up. I'd seen, and bet on Michael Maker's Killer Partner, at Gulfstream where she'd run second THREE times, the most recent on Florida Derby Day. But I thought that today she looked best with both of her last two speed figures standing above those of her rivals. I figured she'd be the chalk, listed at 5/2 in the program, and probably not the best bet if she simply didn't want to win, but I went with the numbers. Right to the front and clear into the stretch, but then here came a 9/1 closer. Caught her nearing the wire.....heads bobbing up and down.....PHOTO FINISH! That's her on the inside (#4) with her nose first on the wire! And the best part was the crowd had let her go off at odds of 3/1. That meant that I was cashing for over $40 on my first winner of the big weekend! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I made my next bet online for the third race and got my "Pink Out" Oaks outfit on - including my Kentucky Oaks pin which I'd purchased when ontrack for the 2012 Kentucky Oaks - and hopped into my very cool sports car for the drive to Gulfstream Park. I was a little surprised at the small crowd on track, and even more surprised that literally no one seemed to be in "Oaks attire" except me. I saw two women in dresses, but their partners at the track were not dressed up so I think they may have only had a dress on, just because. I filmed my Oaks intro and my winning pick and got ready to cash some tickets! But the rest of the day was one of those "zig when you should have zagged" day. After missing in the third and fifth with runners that were there to the stretch and then faded, the six stakes races were all won by the "other" horse. In the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes for 3yo fillies on the turf I liked My Year Is a Day who was making her first North American start after finishing in the money in six of seven career Euro starts. I was intrigued by Todd Pletcher's Feathered. She'd been my pick in the BC Juvenile and was a good third; then was a good 2nd as my pick in a Grade 1 at Los Alimatos to close out her juvenile campaign. But she disappointed at odds on at Gulfstream. Today was her first try on the turf. I still favored the Euro import when I did the handicapping. But on Friday I was very intrigued that Pletcher had scratched Feathered out of a dirt allowance to run here, in a Grade 3 on the turf. I seriously contemplated changing the bet, but didn't. My selection was 5th at 2/1 while Feathered won wire-to-wire at 5/1 odds. In the Grade 1 La Troienne I narrowed it down to My Miss Sophia who was a good second to Untapable in the Kentucky Oaks last year or Molly Morgan, who was a "Horse for the Course" with a sharp local record. I ended up going with My Miss Sophia who was making her first start for Bill Mott, and the fact he brought her back in this Grade 1 spot spoke of confidence. Fifth at 9/2 while Molly Morgan won at 5/1 odds. Sigh......In the Grade 2 Alyesheba I went with Honor Code who'd won the Gr 2 GP Handicap for me over Prontico from the Pletcher barn. Too far back, fifth again, while Prontico won a photo finish. In the Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint I thought I had a good upset pick with the mare Good Deed to beat the boys. She'd had a terrible trip when second on the undercard of Fountain of Youth Day. My other horse was Power Alert who'd won for me in a listed stakes at Gulfstream, but was a beaten favorite in the Gr 3 Woodchopper at Keeneland last out. Good Deed was the mild 3/1 favorite and after moving strongly on the turn, hung for fourth while Power Alert wired the field paying double digits. In the Grade 3 Eight Belles I liked Bob Baffert's Grade 1 winning Callback. Last out, going two turns in the $200K Sunland Park Oaks she'd won only to be DQ'd in a controversial call. She as facing off with Promise Me Silver who'd run her record to 7-for-7 winning the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn for me on Arkansas Derby Day. But she'd never seen graded company and Callback, as I said, was a Grade 1 winner. The two ran one-two through the lane with Callback chasing her all the way to the wire. Both had been 5/1 in the program so I would have had a nice price if either had won, but again.....the "wrong" horse. Finally in the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks I liked Santa Anita Oaks winner Stellar Win. She had dominated the west coast fillies in both graded stakes out there, but what I liked best was she'd done it from off-the-pace over the speed favoring Santa Anita course. My hesitation was with my winning pick from Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland, Lovely Maria. I'd nailed her on the basis of her having run against top Fair Grounds filly I'm A Chatterbox. She'd won with ease in the Ashland and had the look of a filly getting good at the right time. I hesitated, and should not have, when it was a big story that her jockey, Kerwin "Boo Boo" Clark had gotten his first Grade 1 win in the Ashland after some 12,000 (yes twelve THOUSAND) mounts. You know how it turned out - Lovely Maria ran away with the race, Stellar Wind was a belated fourth. All five big races the "other" horse won.

One other side story of interest. Early in the day my oldest son Jeff called and said he was at Sam Houston Park making his Derby bets (more on that later) and he said he wanted to bet the Oaks-Derby Double. He wanted to know who I liked in the Oaks. So I told him I thought the race was very wide open with five solid win candidates, led by Lovely Maria and Stellar Wind. He asked about doing a $20 bet with the five. I told him to do what he wanted, but I thought there were three others that would be no surprise and that because there were eight legitimate win candidates I would not be betting this unique double. So he went with five $10 bets, including the winner Lovely Maria. So Oaks Day came to a conclusion with a single win, and no stakes scores. I have to admit I was pretty disappointed Friday evening. But as I was looking at articles on the Internet for last minute tidbits for the Derby card I ran across a DRF Handicapper's column for Saturday and he started off by saying, "Friday was a disaster...." and I thought, I can relate to that. But it was the next thing he wrote that really caught my attention, ".......but the good thing is, Saturday is another day with a lot of opportunities!" And I was reminded of this truism about racing hat makes the game so enjoyable to me. Just when you have an "off day," no worries, there's more racing tomorrow! And so I went to bed Friday night full of anticipation for a big day on Saturday, Kentucky Derby Day.

Saturday May 2: Derby Day

Ashley Judd On Why Kentuckians Wait For Derby Day

I had watched the Derby Post Position draw and was anxious for the post that my top pick, American Pharoah would get. When they took a commercial break halfway through the field and he still had not had his name called and the inside three slots were all open I was very concerned. But he drew a comfortable 18 post and that sealed the deal for me. By late Wednesday night the entries & odds were out so I set up my analysis pages online. Then I spent the vast majority of Thursday analyzing the runners horse-by-horse for the stakes races. And by late Thursday afternoon I was handicapping the card for selections. Friday evening, after the Oaks experience, I pulled out the DRF (hard copy) I'd bought before leaving Gulfstream and looked through the Gulfstream entries and found four races I liked, as well as a stakes race from Belmont. My youngest son Brad texted where my Derby pick had drawn and expressed concern about the post. I told him he was fine there and how much I liked him. He transferred $25 into my account and asked me to bet for him, joining my Mom who had asked me to bet $5. I had planned with Kim for the day and told her I'd go out for the full day if she was not interesting in going, but if she wanted to do like we did last year where we'd go out for a couple hours and have lunch, then come home for the Derby on television I was good with that. So that was the plan. I missed on both of the early races I bet online and as we arrived around 12:30 it was nearing post time for the first of the Derby Day stakes, the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile. This used to be the Derby Trial and was traditionally run on Opening Night a week before the Derby. But the days of a horse coming back one week after running in this one-turn mile event to run in the mile & a quarter Kentucky Derby were long gone. So Churchill Downs moved it to the Derby undercard and renamed it to honor the all-time leading rider under the Twin Spires. I met Hall of Fame rider Pat Day one day at Calder when he and Chris McCarron were signing autographs and I talked with them about the iconic Breeders' Cup battle they'd waged on Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. In this race I really liked Todd Pletcher's unbeaten colt, Competitive Edge. He had gone a perfect 2-for-2 as a juvenile, capping the brief season with a win in the Grade 1 Hopeful. Then he made his 2015 debut at Gulfstream as my top choice in a $50K listed stakes. Both of those events were seven furlongs and he'd drawn off convincingly in both so I was not concerned about the added furlong today. My only hesitation was that the runner-up behind him in the GP stakes had come back to lose (albeit after winning the photo only to be DQ'd) at 1/9 odds. But Competitive Edge looked too good for these. He stalked the pace to the turn as we watched on the jumbotron in the paddock and then opened up to run away by daylight. My first win of the Derby Day!

He'd gone off at a more-than-fair 6/5 price so I cashed for nearly $35 ..... AND he'd set a new track record for the mile distance. Mark him down for his next start! A half hour later I was watching in the simulcast area for the start of the Grade 2 American Turf for 3yo. I thought this race was WIDE open. I considered passing the race, but I found Divisidero. He'd debuted with a sensational last-to-first maiden win at Gulfstream two back. Then in his first start against winners he ran in the Grade 3 Palm Beach. In spite of rallying SIX-wide and being "in tight" he was a sharp third, beaten less than a length. I thought with a clean trip and the long stretch at Churchill Downs he stood a legitimate chance at a price. And I REALLY liked the 20/1 program odds. I knew he'd be bet down, but I thought maybe I'd still get 10/1 or better. He hovered at 9/1 until on the last click he was 8/1. He was near the back as they hit the far turn, but then started picking off horses. As heads turned for home both the guy to the left of me and the guy to the right of me were screaming for him. He caught the leader twenty yards from home and blew by as the three of us cheered! WHOOO HOOOOO! When the payoff came up it was a VERY nice $19.20 and I was cashing for nearly $50! Two-for-two!

And to add to the excitement Kim returned from the casino and told me she'd turned her $20 slots investment into $30. Oh we are having a very good day! We were trying to meet up with a couple we're friends with but they weren't here yet. So Kim went back to the casino saying she would only play with the $10 winnings. And I watched my lone play at Belmont. I liked Beauty Parlor who'd been my "day-maker" on Florida Derby Day where I cashed for nearly $150. But she was put on the lead to day and faded to fifth. Then came the Grade 1 Humana Distaff from Churchill Downs. This seven furlong sprint for fillies & mares had been one of my big scores last year. And today I was anxious to play against defending Breeders' Cup champion Judy the Beauty. She'd not run well here twice already, including in this race last year. I'd picked a Pletcher filly to steal it on the front end, but she scratched to run on the Oaks undercard. So I considered passing or playing the favorite. And then I noticed Pletcher's "other" filly - Dame Dorothy. She'd won the Sunshine Millions Distaff for me, and while it's a long way from that state-bred $100K event and the Grade 1 Humana at Churchill, she was facing a vulnerable favorite and was a perfect 2-for-2 at this unique distance. I was a little disappointed at her 5/2 odds, but I think many handicappers were thinking the same thing as I was. As much as we liked Dame Dorothy, we were against the favorite. As the field turned for home Judy the Beauty collared the leader and Dame Dorothy was running on the outside. It was a thrilling stretch duel and only in the final two jumps did Dorothy get her head in front. My THIRD STAKES WIN IN A ROW!

I had only bet the minimum, but still, I'll take the added nearly $20 to pad the winnings for the day. Kim came back just as the prices came up and announced that she'd taken her $10 in winnings and turned it into $46! WHAT a great day! I told Kim that "drinks are on you" and she got me a Mint Julep in a souvenir glass. Our friends arrived and I pointed out to my pal Jim that if he looked at the array of simulcast screens hanging from the ceiling I'd been to nine of the ten tracks and the one I had not been to, Woodbine, would be where he and I would be for the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in September! After chatting for a while Kim and I headed over to the Yardhouse for lunch. I missed on back-to-back races when second at Gulfstream and then 9th at 7/1 with a Euro import in the Grade 2 Distaff Mile at Churchill, ending my stakes winning streak. We texted our pals that we were going to the rail to watch one more live race and then head for home. The fifth at Gulfstream was a maiden special for 3-and-up over the turf. Top NY trainer Chad Brown had the favorite and he looked legitimate. But I wondered if she was this good why wasn't he with his top string in New York? I found Semblance of Order as my pick - both of his turf speed figures were comparable to the favorite's numbers and he was 6/1.

He left the gate at 9/2 and swept up entering the stretch and ran to victory! As Kim and I headed to the parking lot the prices came up and he'd paid a very nice $11, so my double up investment would return well over $50! Oh it's a very good day indeed. When we got home I checked my three races that had gone off while we drove home. Lost both Gulfstream contests - one at 5/2 when a disappointing 7th and the other a really poor 7th at 3/5 odds. And at Churchill Downs defending Breeders' Cup Champion Bayern stopped entering the stretch at 4/5 in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs. My pick for the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Stephanie's Kitten, had scratched so all that was left was the Kentucky Derby.

Before we'd left for Gulfstream the odds on program favorite American Pharoah had been reported at 8/5 after the early betting on Friday. Jeff and I talked on the phone about this and I assured him that we'd get a better price once the big crowd showed up and started betting on names and numbers. And then, once the serious money started to come in handicappers with "value" on their mind would bet one of the many legitimate three-year-olds at their inflated prices. But for me, there was only one way to go regardless of the odds. I had made American Pharoah my "BET of the WEEKEND" and had posted this online:

While Kim and I were driving to Gulfstream Jeff had asked if he could post my analysis online for all his buddies to read. I said ok. And I have to admit I started to feel a little pressure about the pick - not because I was concerned about him winning or not. Every year anyone who knows me and my interest in horses wants to know who I like in the Derby. And when I tell them my pick it's always understood that "it's the Derby, it's hard to tell." But this year he was my "Bet of the Weekend" and I told anyone that asked that I'd never been more confident, nor bet more, than on this Derby selection. If you read the analysis the key to my bet was the fact that his win in the Arkansas Derby as we watched live had been one of only three races in my entire handicapping career that caused me to say, "Oh My" as a take-your-breath away performance. I thought he was just tons the most talented of the strongest field I've seen in many years for the Kentucky Derby. Jeff and I had discussed the betting of the race. On the one hand I pointed out, if he's ever to lose it would be in a 20-horse field, going a mile in a quarter in front of over 150,000 screaming fans. Anything can happen in the Derby. But on the other hand, WHEN (not if) he wins today, he will be 3/5 in the Preakness when he'll be a near certain winner; so the time to make a score is today. I was wavering between $50 and $100 to win, both "Bet of the Weekend" status. And in the end I decided I was CONVINCED he would win and I was going to make a big score today! In the final twenty minutes approaching post time I got so many text messages from people asking me who I liked, and I told them all the same thing - American Pharoah, bet of the weekend, most confident/biggest bet on the Derby ever. And between those text messages, Jeff having "spread the word" online about my pick, and how confident I'd made my pick sound I have to admit that I had some thoughts about how to explain to non-racing fans if he DIDN'T win due to some racing circumstance that most would not really understand. While it's not fair I get it......next to no one I know understands the racing game. As I explained to Kim, a big day on a Thursday afternoon where I might win 40% of my picks and win over $100 is just as hard as winning on Derby Day. But anyone who knows I love horseracing is only really interested in "did you win the Derby?" So I feel that kind of pressure every year on this big day when everyone is focused on racing. As the horses approached the gate I explained to Kim that I disagreed with most handicappers who thought Florida Derby would lead the field from his inside post. I told her I thought trainer Bob Baffert's other horse (he is American Pharoah's trainer), Dortmund - who is a perfect 6-for-6 including the Grade 1, $1 Million Santa Anita Derby, would be the early leader and I expected his two to lock up turning for home. I went on to explain that a lot of people liked him because the horse he'd beaten twice - both times by a head - Firing Line, who is in the Derby, had come back to dominate the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby. But as I told Kim, the runner-up in that race had been beaten 20 lengths today at double digit odds in the Pat Day Mile. So to me, I thought Firing Line was a false read on Dortmund, who then by association wasn't as good as advertised. As they broke out of the gate and headed into the Clubhouse turn it was unfolding just as I thought it would.......Dortmund (#8) was in front and American Pharoah (#18) was stalking on the outside. I was surprised that Carpe Diem (#4) - who'd been my early Derby pick was in the clear in fourth on the rail and even more surprised that Firing Line (#10), under Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens, was pressing the pace.

As they raced down the backstretch I was a little concerned for two reasons. One, the fractions of :47 and change for a half mile and 1:11 for six furlongs were easy for these kind of runners. As a comparison when I was at the Derby in 2012 the six furlong time was 1:09, some ten lengths faster. To give a talented, unbeaten horse like Dortmund that kind of lead was dangeros. And second, when the TV panned to the head-on view. American Pharoah was wide through the first turn, but I had expected this with the post 18 draw. However as they moved down the backside he was still WELL off the fence and the field. I understand as a rider when you are on a horse you believe is TRULY the best you want to keep outside and free of trouble, this seemed a bit much. And as they hit the far turn he was still wide. Dortmund was engaged by Firing Line as they spun out of the turn and American Pharoah made his move. But instead of gliding up and by as I anticipated, he was being hard ridden and even shown the whip by jockey Victor Espinoza. We still have over a 1/4 of a mile to go, this can't be good! The camera angle changed to te traditional grandstand view now and as they straightened for the sprint for home it was clear that American Pharoah had drifted another five paths wide and was now clearly in the middle of the track, losing all kinds of ground! But he is one special horse - in spite of the wide trip, the very wide spin into the stretch AND chasing the moderate fractions he collared the weakening Dortmund first and then went by Firing Line. In the most surprising - for me - part of the race, Firing Line was very stubborn and American Pharoah did not blow him away, but he was EASILY best on the wire. And considering the trip and fractions he was MUCH the best!

Kim, unbeknownst to me, had been videoing my reaction as I watched the race and as I turned to her once American Pharoah crossed the line she remarked, you didn't have much of a reaction....and then she noticed it had not been recording :) I told her that it was much like watching a Florida Gator football game - I was so "into it" that I could not enjoy it. There was no jubilant outcry or jumping up and down as he hit the finish line. Just a sense of great satisfaction, and if the truth were told, relief, for being so right on racing's biggest day. But of course I was happy enough to pose for a winning ticket with my Derby hero crossing the line on the big screen:

It was a very profitable day for everyone. I could not believe that American Pharoah had been allowed to stay at nearly 3/1 at post time. The payoff of $7.80 meant a huge payoff for anyone who had gone "all in" on him......like me! My Mom's $5 play would get her back nearly $20. Jim texted me that he'd "scored big" with a $10 bet, he'd be cashing for nearly $40. Joel Desguin, former player and student had asked for my picks and texted me shortly after the race with a picture of his winning trifecta ticket with the message, "Thanks!." My buddy Jeff Nelson had followed my advice and gone $100 to win-place-show and would be getting back nearly $500. Brad's $25 bet would get him back nearly $100. Jeff had taken money for all the fellas at the HBU coaching office and they would all be cashing in the hundreds. Jeff later told me several of his buddies online had read my analysis and listened to his advice and they too scored big. For Jeff himself he'd bet $200 to win, so his win ticket would be worth $780. The Oaks-Derby Double paid $27 for a $1 bet, so he'd cash for another $270 there bringing his winnings on the Derby to over $1000. All evening long I kept getting texts from my oldest son that simply said, "PHAROAH!" It was wonderful outcome! As for me, I was so happy that I'd not "hesitated" with $50 win bet, but had gone "all in" with $100 to win. I will cash for $390 on the Derby. And since I did not cash any of my winning tickets on Saturday, when I go back to the races I will collect well over $500. That will be one sweet photo! And even cooler, despite the "off day" on Oaks Day, I'd managed to have NEARLY as good a weekend this year as last:

Truly a memorable Derby Day! Below the video recap of the weekend I'm posting some Fashion Photos, including a good one of Kim & I, and a couple more Derby action shots. Finally at the bottom is a video from Churchill Downs that is a 2:58 recap of Derby Day 2015. WOW.....still riding the high as we look forward to two weeks from now when American Pharoah goes for the second jewel of the Triple Crown in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore.....and as I've mentioned, THIS GUY WILL BE THERE!