It was a mixed bag of emotions today, especially for Kim. She was so happy to be celebrating her birthday - and mostly her birthday weekend - in Houston with Cameron (and the rest of the family), but today was our day to head home. And to add to the downside of her day she woke up feeling nauseous. She put that all aside for a last visit with Cameron, as they watched his favorite show, "PJ Masks" here.......
Before we headed out to the airport I had gone online and made my selections for Woodbine's Sunday card. The trip was uneventful except that Kim not only did not improve but continued to feel worse and worse throughout the day. By the time we got home she went right to bed and was only up for a minute or two the rest of the day. As for the racing, I'd passed the first three, then ran fifth, 2nd, and 3rd with my first tree picks. My choice in the Classy N' Smart Stakes scratched leaving me with one final chance to close the day, the week, and the month with a win. I liked Jacks Escarpment in spite of the fact that he was one of about half a dozen who wanted the lead. BUT.....he had the rail, he had the top rider in Eurico DaSilva and more importantly when DaSilva rides for Nicholas Gonzalez it's a Woodbne 40% Club play. He broke sharply and quickly was out in front by two lengths. The rest of the front runners decided to let him go on with it and they paid for it as he went wire to wire at a nice 2/1 price. My double investment got me back $30 and I made the losses very minimal for the day.
This closes out September (I'll count the Wednesday Sept 30 card as part of October since it's part of a new racing week). My totals for six months are solid for this handicapping project. If my winners only paid a little better my ROI would be higher, but I'm content with it, especially my big numbers in my Woodbine ROI returns.
Because we are in Houston, and tonight is "Game Night" for Jeff's team, the HBU Huskies, I was obviously not going to have a full-scale attack on the national racing scene in spite of it being "Breeders' Cup Preview Day" with most of the big stars getting in their final tune-ups in a big graded stakes at either Santa Anita or Belmont. So my plan for the day was to handicap the Woodbine card as part of my normal routine, and then create my own card through brisnet.com with all of the stakes races from across the country, focusing mainly on the two big BC preview race cards. I downloaded stakes events from Churchill, Belmont, Santa Anita, and one fro Thistledowns in Cleveland to go with my picks from Woodbine. I made my bets mid-morning and then spent the day with the family as we headed to Sam Houston State University for the 6 pm kickoff. Here's our grandson, the biggest Huskie fan of them all.......Once we got back to the house and Cameron was settled in be I opened up the Internet and began to relive the day of racing. The first selection came from Woodbine in a MSW turf sprint. I liked Conquest Bespoke who was 8/1 in theprogram. He was outrun by a quality field in his debut and the third place colt has come back to win two stakes. Thought he might show more than anticipated today. But as they left the gate the fans had hammered him all the way down to 9/5. He stalked the leader to the turn, made his move, but was outfinished by a 2/1 runner, second. Next up was the Grade 1 Beldame going a one-turn nine furlongs at Belmont for older fillies & mares, serving as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. I did not like Wedding Toast, who was a big-time horse-for-the-course at Belmont, but I thought she'd be overbet and might be ripe for the upset. My problem was I couldn't find anyone I was thrilled about. But I settled on Todd Pletcher's Curalina, a three-year-old taking on older, as a logical potential upsetter. The two fought it out into the lane before the favorite drew off and my pick was second, again. Back to Toronto for a maiden special sprint for two-year-olds. My selection was Generous Touch. It looked obvious that the favorite was going to be Crumblin' Spirit who was second, beaten a head in a stakes race by the multiple stakes winning Caren (who came right back off those wins to run big in a Grade 2 prep for the Breeders' Cup on Woodbine Mile weekend). But I thought that maybe, just maybe Generous Touch who was also second, beaten a nose in her debut, and again in her second start, might have a chance at the upset. If Beyer figures mean anything, which they do to me, but less so with juveniles, both of the favorite's figs were better than anything the rest of the field had run. As I re-read my analysis prior to the race I thought I'd picked Crumblin's Spirit, but I'd bet Generous. Smarter than the average bear as Generous pressed the 71 leader into the turn and then opened up in full flight for the wire by daylight. The favorite came running, but I'd beat her to the punch and crossed the wire first. I'd double the bet on Generous Touch. The win payoff of $8.30 meant I'd be cashing for over $40 with my first winner on this big day. Right back in the sixth I really liked Keen Gizmo going a mile and a sixteenth in an entry level allowance. As I wrote in my analysis, you either really like even-money favorite Keen Gizmo, or you think he's a vulnerable favorite which will get you a nice price. For me, the key fact was this: from the combined 100 races of the rest of the field, ONE figure was an 84, the rest were all below 82. Keen Gizmo's last three figures were 89-93-84. Duh. He was sent off at what I thought was a more-than-fair 1/2 price as he pressed the 9/1 front runner to midway down the backstretch. Jockey Luis Contreras could hold him no more and he glided to the front opening up willingly. He was daylight in front turning for home and just demolished the field. The $3.10 payoff - love those extra nickel and dime payoffs at Woodbine! - led to a return of nearly $25 from my triple investment on my "best" at Woodbine!.
The next race listed on my sheet was the Catalaunch from Thistledowns in Cleveland. When I downloaded the Brisney stakes races I thought that I'd seen there were a couple of stakes races from this track, but it turned out this was the only one. I didn't know any of the horses, but Jac's Fact was the "duh-obvious" winner on paper. He'd won three straight local races, his last two figures were better than any lifetime number from the rest of the field, and from a pace scenario he looked to be sitting dream trip behind dueling front runners, but well ahead of deep closers. As they hit the turn I was surprised he wasn't already in front, but by the furlong marker he had taken control and romped home. I'd doubled the bet and so I'd cash for over $15 on the 3/5 favorite.
I was second at a nice 4/1 price in the 7th at Woodbine in a 2yo MSW with Autonomic before the graded stakes races began. The 7th at Belmont was the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom. La Verdad is one of the quickest front-running fillies in the country. But, any time she steps up into graded company outside of NY-bred stakes, she struggles to hold on. At least that was the "old La Verdad." Last April her connections had tried again for black type in the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct and she romped easily (as my top choice). They tried another graded event in May, the Grade 3 Vagrancy she was all out to hang on, but she won again. Her next was a state-bred stakes and in her career-best form there was no beating her as she rolled by seven widening lengths earning the comment in the form, "....no doubt about it....." Then last time out she stepped up to wire the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at the prestigious Saratoga meet. Knowing the "old La Verdad" I thought she might be vulnerable today. But as I looked over the field, not only were her numbers best, but any thought of her regressing against top sprinters could be dismissed because she'd drawn inside and was the L-O-N-E speed. Still, I couldn't shake the multiple times I'd beaten her in just these kinds of spots, so I only doubled the bet. She cruised into the lane well in front. Inside the final 16th a late closer was getting to her, but it was too late. She'd won her fifth graded stakes in a row.
I cashed for over $15! At Churchill Downs Midnight Cello disappointed in 4th at 3/1; then in the Unzip Me Stakes, sprinting down the hillside at Santa Anita on their fall opening day program, I could not find a legitimate stakes winner to back. But Curlin's Fox had won both tries down the hill. And that's usually key in those events. He was the 4/5 favorite, but was a non-threatening third. My final bet at Woodbine was in their featured La Prevoyante Stakes. This one mile turf event looked pretty wide open to me. But luckily for my handicapping, I have the Woodbine Handicapper and it's Woodbine 40% Club stats. My pick was Conquest Strate Up who was 6/1 in the program. As a Conquest Stable runner trained by Mark Casse, that's club material baby! As the field approached the top of the stretch I thought my pick was hopelessly out of as she was at the back. But once heads turned towards the wire she seemed to have discovered a new gear. Jockey Alan Garcia threaded through runners to get clear on the outside and she nailed the leader in the final strides!
The upset win was good for a $12.30 payoff on the board so I'd be cashing for over $30 - my second big score here at Woodbine! The Grade 3 Pilgrim for juveniles on the turf at Belmont attracted my attention because Javier Castellano was riding a Chad Brown colt who was 6/1 in the program. That Brown would send the colt here for his first try against winners said a lot I thought. He was blocked into the lane, found a seam on the rail, burst through and just missed when third beaten less than a length. At Churchill, the Lucas Classic at one time thought maybe American Pharoah would show up, but he did not. I liked Departing who has made a living in listed stakes while running competitively in graded events. He was the 6/5 favorite, but was a narrowly beaten second. The ninth at Belmont was the Grade 1 Vosburgh going six furlongs as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Far and away the east coast - and maybe national - sprint division leader has been Todd Pletcher's Rock Fall. He has been a multiple winner for me and last time out he scored his first Grade 1 win by a nose in the Vanderbilt at Saratoga. I thought he looked MUCH the best in this spot and listed him as my "Belmont BEST BET." But then late Friday I read that his connections were saying openly that he wasn't "fully geared up" but they thought he would be "good enough." I paused and wondered if he was a good bet, but then my take on it was that they had that much confidence in his ability and that maybe this hinted at his peak performance coming next out at the Breeders' Cup in Keeneland. He was still 2/5 at post time, which I thought was fair considering his edge on the field. He rated nicely to the top of the stretch, moved four wide into the lead and then "dueled" with Stallwalkin Dude who he'd narrowly defeated last time out. I use quotes on the "dueled" because the rider for 'Dude was all over his horse while Javier Castellano was hand riding, though to be fair vigorously, Rock Fall. It was never in doubt.
The "prime time" investment got me back nearly $30, but as I often say, it wasn't so much about the money as the fact that I put my money where my confidence was and I was right! All that was left on my sheet were four Grade 1 races from the Santa Anita Preview card. In the Grade 1 Frontrunner for two-year-old colts I thought Nyquist was the best of the west coast juveniles, but I wanted to take a shot against him going two turns. I went with Bob Baffert's Mt. Veeder. At 6/1 he hounded the favorite into the lane, but when that one went on - to win by the way, Mt. Veeder faded to sixth. The 7th at Santa Anita was my BET of the Day - the Grade 1 Zenyatta featuring superstar Beholder. Since last April she's made short work of the older fillies & mares in stakes company, running like it's a morning workout, literally jogging home. So last time out her connections tried older handicap males and stretched her out to a mile and a quarter in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Equally devastating in her win they announced that she'd be pointed to a showdown with Triple Crown champion American Pharoah and a shot at horse of the year. So as a prep today, back with the fillies and mares, there was little chance of a fair price. The only concern might have been if she would bounce or not be asked for 100%. But I know her connections and how they treat her. They've publicly said they will only run her when she is primed for a big effort. And that would not be needed today. She was breaking from post nine with a short run to the first turn, and maybe against older male stars in the Classic that could be a problem, but not here. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens kept her wide and in the clear to mid-way down the backside and then let her go. Another public workout - she was sensational in victory.
My $50 win bet got back a whopping $55! But again, it wasn't about the money it was about my confidence and willingness to put that much on her - and be right! Earlier in the day Jeff and I had talked about the races today before he left for his game. And I told him that in the Grade 1 Chandelier for 2yo fillies I thought there might be a young filly who just might be the "next Beholder." Her name was Songbird. She was my prime-time pick and she did not disappoint as she was nearly as easy a winner as Beholder.
If she can carry her form to Kentucky for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she'll be a big time play for me. The last bet of the day came in the Grade 1 Awesome Again for older handicap runners. I really thought that last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern would bounce back today. He loves the Santa Anita track where he's a perfect 3-for-3 and he'd blistered a five furlong bullet in :59.1. He was the 6/5 favorite but had little response when challenged in mid-stretch; third. So for the day I was a fantastic 8-for-17 with a nice profit on the day! ON TO THE BREEDERS' CUP!
Today we continued our visit with Cameron and his mom & dad. Jeff was able to leave earlier today from the office so we all went over to the Sugar Land downtown plaza for dinner at a pizza place and to let Cameron run around. Here's a photo of me and my grandson at HBU when we visited the bookstore.
After dinner Jeff & Nettie went to a movie so Kim and I took Cameron home. After his bedtime I checked out my races from earlier in the day. In the opener I liked Courtville, who was a Woodbine 40% Club play for trainer Norman McKnight with jockey Luis Contreras. He was dropping in class today and I thought he'd enjoy the turn back to seven furlongs. He was unhurried in mid-pack to the far turn, but when asked to run he had no response. Sixth as the 2/1 favorite. I passed the second - the only horse I mentioned, a 14-time maiden, won the race at 2/1. In the third it was another Woodbine 40% Club play. Top rider Eurico Rosa DaSilva makes trainer Nicholas Gonzalez a club member when they team up. He was on Victory Salute in this juvenile maiden claimer. The filly was debuting today off a series of five works. She settled in mid-pack, was asked to run on the turn and she ran for about two hundred yards before flattening out, distanced at 3/1....and I mean DISTANCED far, far back. Sigh. The fourth was another 2yo event, a maiden special turf race going a one-turn mile over the expansive grass course. Conscription was my top choice. His trainer was Malcom Pierce and nearly every stat that applied here was a 30% or better win angle. As I wrote, if there were such a thing as the 30% Club, he'd be a charter member! With debut runners like Conscription, 34% with a $2.87 ROI; with first-time turf, 33%; with 2yo runners, 30%; also, 33% with debut runners going a mile or longer; and finally with top rider DaSilva he's a 31% winner at $2.63 ROI. DaSilva took her right to the front and was hand riding her at the furlong marker well clear of the field at 6/5. But then the second choice came FLYING from the back and inhaled her in the final fifty yards, second. I was actually ready to add up the winnings I was so confident. 0-for-3 to start the day......In the fifth I had picked 8/1 Bear's Reflection in a non-winners of two lifetime race carded at seven furlongs. She was the ONLY runner in the field who was dropping for a first time tag and had not seen this condition before. Trainer Reade Baker had sent her into stakes company for two starts after breaking her maiden at this difficult distance. Last time out she was going a route of ground n the turf in open allowance. Today was the day - back to the main track, turn back to seven panels, and switch to top rider DaSilva. I thought it was a nice price play. Well, apparently so did the crowd who sent her off as the 9/5 favorite. She was settled off the leaders into the far turn when DaSilva swung her into the three path turning for home. She responded immediately and blew by. At the furlong marker it was only a question of by how much. If I'd been watching live I'd probably have upped the bet, but I'd bet this morning so I collected only a click less than $15 with my minimum bet.
In the sixth I had what I thought was another nice price pick. It was MSW for older going a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. I thought Belle Chloe looked strong against this group of proven losers. She was a $470K sales purchase and was coming off her best yet when second at 1/5 odds, ouch, behind a runaway winner while well clear of the show filly. I considered doubling the play, but after losing at odds-on I was leery. She was well back as they hit the far turn, and though not distanced, she was fifth turning home and not showing any reason to get excited. But she hit a different gear when heads turned for home and she was flying down the middle of the lane. The rider looked like he knew it all the way, but even with 100 yards to go I wasn't sure he had enough ground to catch the late leader. But he did, and the price was fair on this one. She paid $7.60 so I collected nearly $20.
As is so often the case the profit/loss for the day would ride on my final pick. And it was my "best" of the day. The featured 8th this afternoon was a seven furlong turf sprint for entry level runners. Chic Thrill had debuted with a sensational win back in late July going 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf after pressing a sizzling :44 flat half mile call and 1:08 for six furlongs before drawing off by four widening lengths for Malcom Pierce and Eurico DaSilva. Today she was trying winners for the first time, but the daughter of Smart Strike had signaled her readiness with a near bullet work in a swift :59.3 around the dogs on the turf course. I liked that DaSilva and Pierce were winning at better than 30%. The gates popped and Chic Thrill was clear on the lead immediately. Typically speed is not the best way to go here in Toronto on either course, but when I saw the pace call at :46 and change I was very comfortable being on the lead. As the field turned for home the pressers were closing in and the late runners were winding up. We'd find out now if Chic Thrill could step up and beat winners first time......DaSilva sat patiently on her to the furlong marker and then asked her to sprint for home, and she did to score by daylight!
So I close the day with three straight wins, finish 50% on the day and with a black line total for the day! One last item that was of interest. Around 3:30 I was sitting in the living room handicapping for Saturday when my phone rang. I looked at the number and it was a 954 area code, but no caller ID. Typically I don't answer, but I did. The voice said, "Mark? Hi, this is Rosemary!" My former student, now a top jockey (she's the third leading female rider of ALL TIME!). She was calling to chat and tell me there was a live longshot in Arlington's eighth race today. How sweet! We made tentative plans to see each other during the Tampa winter meet and after we hung up I went online to check out her tip. The horse looked good, but was scratched :( BOOOOO. Still, it was another fine day in Houston and for my Woodbine Handicapping Project.
For Kim's birthday weekend we took off from Ft. Lauderdale International this morning, bound for Houston to spend the week with Jeff, Antoinette, and our adorable grandson Cameron. Have to say that in spite of this great photo, when he walked into he living room and saw the two of us he ran right by Kim and came running to his grandpa with his arms outstretched and this huge smile on his face.....made my weekend complete! But enough of the family stuff, this is a racing journal! I had handicapped the Woodbine Wednesday evening card yesterday and made the bets before we left for the airport. Late this evening I opened up the computer and checked the results............ In the opener I didn't really want to back the favorite, Bread Winner, but he was the only runner exiting open company to run for this open $25K tag; all the others had been in restricted 2-lifetime races most recently. He was the tepid 2/1 favorite at post time and was dueling through the far turn, only to weaken in the lane and finish fourth. In the third I went for an upset in Jose Sea View who was first off the claim for Nicholas Gonzalez, and those paid a whopping $7.72 for every $2 bet on them. He went right to the front at a big 9/2 price and was clear into the lane......looking at cashing for over $50 but he was caught in the final 16th, second. In the fourth I went with Midnight Trace for trainer Paul Biamonte. Tonight this guy was putting on blinkers, and that had resulted in two wins from the four times he'd used this move. Midnight Trace was dropping from $40K runners into this $20K sprint after flashing speed through a wicked :44.4 half mile split last time out. He went right to the front, but before the first half mile was run he was being hounded by a 12/1 longshot. Into the turn they dueled and that price horse actually got a head in front. But Midnight Trace came back and edged clear into the stretch. But the damage was done, he'd been softened up. As they hit the furlong pole one runner was coming up the rail and one was flying down the outside. Again he looked to have been headed inside the final sixteenth, but with one last sure it was a PHOTO FINISH!
I thought watching it live that he'd had his nose down on the wire, but as you can see it was VERY close. Midnight Trace was the 6/5 favorite at post time, so with my double investment my first winner of the evening resulted in a return of just shy of $25. In the sixth I really liked Coastal Moon for trainer Sid Attard. He had all the typical angles, but what I liked most was that he always seemed to run two dull races and then pop a big one on the drop in class - this had resulted in both is last two victories. Tonight he was coming of two dull efforts vs. much better and dropping in class. The crowd wasn't fooled and pounded him to 3/5 favoritism. He stalked the pace into the turn, was asked to run ..... and didn't respond; evenly to the wire fourth. In the late-night finale my top choice was Danger Bay. Top jockey Eurico DaSilva was taking over tonight, and any horse he's one deserves a second look. Scanning down through the past performances revealed DaSilva had been up on only three races and ALL of them were big figure efforts. Tonight Danger Bay was dropping in class and moving to the distance - 1 1/16th mile on the main track - that had earned him his best career figure. The gates sprung open and DaSilva took him right to the front. Honestly, here at Woodbine if you are going to win on the lead you have to not only be the best/fastest runner in the field, but I've found that the track plays very kindly to pressers and closers, so you have to be MUCH the best. By the time they'd straightened onto the backstretch a 25/1 longshot had moved to challenge and DaSilva let that one go on with it while he held his position on the rail. He asked Danger Bay for some run heading through the far turn and he responded to glide up to collar the leader who's jockey was all over him. As heads turned for home the closers were coming but now Danger Bay found another gear and spurted away as MUCH the best! He was the handicapper's choice at post time, but at a generous 9/5 price.
I'd doubled the bet so I would be having nearly $30 deposited into my TwinSpires account! So for the night, I won with 2-of-5 handicapping selections, a sharp 40% win rate. That runs my Woodbine totals to 12-for-29 since leaving Toronto, over 40%! I seem to have found my best stride for this "Road To The Breeders' Cup" handicapping project!
The excellent week of handicapping at Woodbine concluded today with another strong day. I was blocked through the stretch in the first bet, the second on the card and just missed when full of run with Flaring Star in a seven furlong sprint. In the third my top choice scratched. I hesitated because I had written that on paper it appeared to be strictly a two-horse race on paper between my choice Strawberry Scarlet and Wild N Clever. If I was right, wouldn't that leave Wild N Clever as the clear winner? I thought about betting, then backed off as I've been enjoying success of late by being conservative and only playing when I'm certain. Should have bet - she won and paid a nice $6.40. In the 5th I liked O Wanderlust going eleven furlongs the turf. Not only did she have solid turf form and the top rider in Eurico DaSilva, but I thought the likely favorite was very vulnerable. Johnny Bear had outfinished O Wanderlust last time out, but her record was 9/0-3-0 on the grass and O Wanderlust was 16/3-1-3. As they turned for home O Wanderlust had been on the lead from the very beginning and Johnny Bear seemed to have momentum. Even track announcer Robert Geller called "....here comes professional runner-up Johnny Bear...." and she held true to her form by refusing to go by :)
The generous payoff of $8.20 allowed me to cash for over $20. The sixth was my best bet and I did't think Don't eave Me cold lose the La Lorgnette. She'd won two of her last four all ingraded company and was beaten a head when five wide and was fourth when steadied and checked. She rallied up three wide......second by a diminishing nose. Sigh.....but I rallied right back when Kitten Candy came flying from off the pace to win at nice 5/2 odds. The double investment led to a payoff of $38.
I was second in yet another photo to close the day with Charming Delilah at 2/1. But for the day I as 2-for-5 and had yet another profitable day in Toronto. This closed out a superb week for me here as I hit with TEN winners from twenty selections - a huge 50%!
In 2012 I flew to Philadelphia for a racing adventure at Parx Race Course for Pennsylvania Derby Day and had a great time. In 2013 I had an excellent day at Calder on Pa Derby Day, and then last year I had yet another great day on this stakes event day. So I had high hopes for the racing picks I printed out. I had debated going out to Gulfstream but a couple of factors worked against my being on track. First of all, the weather. It had poured down rain nearly every day this week and I just wasn't interested in (a) standing inside while it poured, and (b) watching most of my local selections scratch due to the surface switch. The next factor was that today was a College Football Saturday and I'd missed out on the games last Saturday as I was travelling to Toronto for the Woodbine Mile experience. Finally, my "blood clot condition" sealed my decision. Not that I've felt bad, but I cannot say that I've felt 100%. Good enough to spend the day at the races, but standing, and in particular going up and down the stairs at Gulfstream all afternoon did not sound like a good plan considering the other factors. So I handicapped the Woodbine card, the Charles Town card (with eight stakes from ten races), the Churchill Downs card for their "Downs After Dark" program, the Gulfstream card - figuring if they came off the turf I was comfortable at home, obviously the Parx Pa Derby card, and finally I used the Brisnet program to download stakes races from multiple tracks across the country. When I was done handicapping I had three pages of selections, over thirty in all. I wasn't surprised when I missed with my first three selections because they were all juicy prices. And in fact all three of them were right there into the turn leading me to think that maybe, just maybe.......But Sadie faded to 7th at 7/1 in the Parx opener; Magnetic Girl dropped out of it to sixth at a huge 15/1 price in the second at Parx, and Gayego's Law was second midway on the turn only to fade to 8th at 5/1 in the Woodbine opener. Finally got my first win - at Woodbine - when the odds-on Ralph Biamonte entry of Pure Purity and Kate's Whistle ran 1-2. It was somewhat rewarding in that I preferred Pure Purity and that was the winner!
The third at Woodbine was one of those races where most "pros" would play against my top choice Urban Forester. In his most recent he was running in a state-bred stakes, but today was plummeting all the way down to a $7K claiming spot. Even if the seven-year-old had lost a step or two, I could not look past his 14-for-32 in the exacta record and that if he ran to any of his big figs from the couple of claiming races (for much bigger prices) today, he'd be a clear winner. Also, the thought that most would avoid him and lead to a fair price was tempting. He did go off at an inflated 6/5 price and he swooped up four wide as they spun out of the turn. He went to the front and held on gamely through the final 16th of a mile for the win. I had doubled the bet so I was rewarded with over $20 in winnings. T
hat was a little before two pm. It wasn't until five pm that I'd cash my next ticket - that's a span of twelve races, and if I'd been on track it would have made for a miserable afternoon. Instead I was occupied counting up the coins from our "coin jar" and enjoying college football. Yes, it was frustrating, but I just knew I'd eventually come out of the slump. Still, so many losses when I was right there. 2nd at a big 5/1 in the 4th at Parx with Crafty Concorde; Up With The Birds disappointed in Laurel's Grade 2 Commonwealth when trying to rally into a slow pace, 4th at 9/5. Roadhog showed little late try when 6th at 4/1 n Parx's Alphabet Soup Stakes on the turf. Good thirds at Gulfstream and Woodbine with Always A Catch on the Hallandale turf and City Flyer at Woodbine going 7 panels on the main. Freestyler disappointed at 4th when 5/2 in the Parx Bayern Stakes, and then Grade 1 winner Kitten's Dumpling was a non-threatening fifth at 2/1 in the listed One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs. A HUGE surprise when 4/5 favorite Limousine General was second at 4/5 in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob at Parx to a 20/1 wire-to-wire winner.....I never seem to be able to win that race. I'm Already Sexy led the Ladies' Turf field at Kentucky Downs into the stretch before being caught late, second at 8/5. Kingsport stopped at the top of the stretch in Woodbine's Overskate at 7/5 next. I really thought I was going to make up all the losses in Belmont's Grade 3 Noble Damsel when Euro import Crowley's Law was rallying at 5/1 with my "prime time" ticket on her, but she was a close third. And at Parx in the $1 million Grade 1 Cotillion I tried to get cute and beat I'm A Chatterbox who was my favorite. But So Cal invader Tara's Tango was 6th at 4/1 while 'Chatterbox won decisively at a fair 5/2 price. WOW.
Finally I was able to cash a ticket in the opener at Charles Town. When I first clicked to the tote board Navy Ribbon was 1/9, which I wasn't surprised at sine she was a perfect 3-for-3, all over this race track. AND she'd shown the ability to win on the lead or from a stalking spot. I tripled the bet and was delighted when she floated up to 6/5 at post time in this short field. She tracked the pace and had dead aim on the leader through the tight far turn, but as she turned for home she blew the turn and floated out into the five path losing ground on the leader. She re-rallied and was JUST up in time. Collected nearly $35 for the first win in over four hours! I was fifth with a Todd Pletcher runner at Gulfstream - you have to know the Championship Meet is close when those show up! I then made the second mistake of the day (the first being to pass on I'm A Chatterbox). Typically at a race track with an artificial surface I stick with my bet if a turf race goes to the main track, figuring that the two surfaces play similarly and if the trainer leaves the runner in then they must expect a good effort. So when Passion For Action was my top choice in Woodbine's 9th - and my biggest bet of the day - I normally would have stuck with it. But, because I was playing along and betting as I went, instead of betting early and watching replays, I know saw that all turf racing was canceled when the rains hit around 3:30. I saw Passion was in the race still, but maybe because I was in that 0-for-12 run, I canceled the play. Duh, she won at 9/5...would have profited nearly $30 :( I was surprised and disappointed in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Derby at Laurel when heavy 2/5 favorite Force The Pass showed little try and was an even third. But I scored again at Charles Town. The 2nd was an overnight handicap and I thought Russell Road, a multiple stakes winner, looked much the best. It was a big plus that Lucy's Bob Boy was running in an added money event later because in Russell's last seven starts he'd chased that one home FOUR times! The other three he'd won two stakes and was second, beaten a head at Mountaineer over muddy going. He was 2/5 when the gates sprung open and he went right to the front and never looked back as he notched his career 30th victory! The feature at Gulfstream stayed on the turf, a five furlong sprint, The Treasure Coast. I liked Successful Naïve who was a tepid 2/1 favorite. The crowd was right to question her - trailed all the way in 7th. In the Pennsylvania Derby I was "cute" again when I decided that I would go against who I thought was the likely winner, Frosted. I went with Gimme Da Lute from the Baffert barn. Well, the good news is that he scratched so I didn't lose the bet. The bad news is that Frosted won, with authority much like I'm A Chatterbox. Sigh.....My "Bet of the Day" at Gulfstream was in their finale. I knew that Ralph Nicks' debut runner Barbarenda with top jockey Tyler Gafflione would be odds on, but his numbers with 2yo runners was too good to pass up. I wrote in my analysis that maybe a lot of the crowd would be looking to "get even" on the last race and play against this likely winner. I was stunned with ten minutes to post time she was 5/1! I was thinking I was going to get back all my losses in a hurry here. She took some late money and was nearly 3/1 at post time, but I was dead-on with my handicapping. Right to the front and never in danger as she scored by daylight.
The juicy payoff of $7.60 meant I'd be cashing for $75 and now I'm heading in the right direction. The 3rd at Churchill was on the turf and two of the six scratched leaving a short field of four. St. Borealis was a six-time winner on the grass and the rest of the field had a combined five wins. The short field was a concern because he came from off the pace but normally class tells on grass. Not tonight as the winner coasted on an easy lead and St. Borealis couldn't make up enough ground to even get second at 4/5. I lost an overnight handicap at Charles Tow in their fifth at 3/5 when Chrome Mine was third. But it was at about this point in the day that my Florida Gators were coming on ESPN and so I made my last set of bets, turned the computer off and watched the game. The evening turned out to be wonderful as the Gators held on to beat favored Kentucky, running their winning streak over the Wildcats to 29 years in a row! And when I watched the last of the races I won with SIX of my last eight selections to bring my final winning percentage up over 50%! In Churchill Downs' 4th Ahh CHocolate dropped out of stakes company to coast home in an allowance event. The only bad news was that she had been floating between 3/5 and 4/5 until post time when someone pounded her down to 1/5. But with the way the day had gone, I'd take any winner at any price! I lost with another odds-on runner at Charles Town when 1/5 when RC's Daisyduke was a rallying third, but could not get to the winner. But I got right back on track with my lone selection from Los Alamitos in their Debutante Stakes for 2-year-old fillies. Just Google me had two things I really liked. First, she'd won her career debut on this race track and secondly she'd done so when rating professionally off the pace to finish strongly - and I've found that's the most effective profile for winning here. She was the most accomplished of the runners with two strong stakes tries at Del Mar and the crowd bet her to 4/5 favoritism. She was off the pace again as they hit the turn, but when asked she responded and blew right by the field like nobody's business to win with authority. I had tripled the bet here and scored a nice return of nearly $30.
Scored right back in another race under the Twin Spires in Louisville with Ken & Sarah Ramsey's first-time starting filly, Legendofthekitten. Trainer Michael Maker was winning at a big 36% with jockey Julian Leparoux - and if you read my journals you know that this guy is NOT my favorite rider! I was very pleased when the crowd let her go off at odds of 5/2, but was concerned when she was still mid-pack on the turn. Then she unleashed her late kick and she began gobbling up the ground. Leparoux seemed unworried about the fact that they were running out of ground, but he had it well measured and she was a handy winner once they crossed the wire. The payoff of $7 even returned a handsome $35 to my winnings on the day. In the 9th at Charles Town, the Pink RIbbon Flattering Bea ws the likely favorite. The last five times she'd gone seven furlongs - all here - she'd won five of them and was a best of the rest second in this event last year behind multiple graded stakes winning Geeky Gorgeous. She looked much the best on paper and was a 6/5 favorite at post time. She rated nicely to the far turn, and then......and then......and then nothing. Evenly to the wire to collect show money. But in the tenth, my "BEST" of the night at Charles Town, I really liked multiple graded stakes winner Pants On Fire. That jockey Paco Lopez had ridden at Parx this afternoon and flew to Charles Town to ride here was a plus. The pace was quick for this two-turn seven furlong test and Lopez had Pants On Fire near the back to the far turn. He gradually began picking off horses and it looked like he might have waited too long. But much like Legendofthekitten, he seemed to have it all under control. As they approached the final 100 yards he caught the leader and was edging clear crossing the wire. I'd gone "prime time" with the investment and the $4.20 payoff led to a collection of over $40! My last win of the day came in the feature under the lights at Churchill Downs, the Grade 3 Dogwood for three-year-old fillies. I thought Super Majesty was a standout. She had been on the track three times with two wins and anose defeat whe she tried a two-turn mile at Del Mar and dueled gate to wire. BUT the three career Beyers she'd earned - 91-101-91 were ALL THREE better than any LIFETIME figure earned by any of her rivals in their combined NINETY starts! Regular rider Alex Solis came across the country to ride AND she had a smoking bullet work at Santa Anita on September 14 in a blistering :59.2 for five furlongs. I thought her even-money odds were very generous and she burst to the front on the opening stride and never looked back as she won impressively. I los the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks when 6th as the 3/2 favorite. But the 6-for-8 run had netted me a profit of over $30 and I'd finished the night 10-for-33 with eleven other in-the-money finishes....that's a 30%+ win average I'll have you know! Far better than I would have imagined at 7:30 when I'd gone 4-for-25 to that point!
Yes, my handicapping prowess continues at Woodbine - with the exception of Woodbine Mile Day - as I scored with three more winners today, including my BEST BET of the day. On this Friday card I had five selections from nine races including three with added investments. The first of those came in the opener, a Maiden Special for two-year-olds going two turns at a mile & 70 yards. Niigon's Legacy loomed very large after a narrow loss in his debut going the difficult and demanding distance of seven furlongs. On top of that he had left the gate slowly and was forced to rally four-wide. Despite all of these obstacles he was only 3/4 of a length off the winner while gaining ground. Since that start he'd posted a best-of-69 bullet work in a sharp :47.2 over four furlongs. I just didn't see anyone else jumping up so surprise the 7/5 program favorite. The gates opened to start the day and he was immediately on the front. He was clear until deep stretch when they were finally beginning to gain ground on him, but he held on to score without issue.
I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for well over $15 to kick off the racing card. Right back in the third with what looked like another short-priced winner. The problem with my pick, Wild Catomine, was that she appeared at first glance to be a "play against" type because he'd already burned a lot of bettors' money, having gone down as the short 4/5 and 8/5 favorite in his last two and the odds-on choice in four of her last six starts. But trainer Mark Case had been hot of late and both of her most recent losses saw her well clear of the show runner that came right back to win. I also liked that her pace figures were multiple lengths clear of the only two rivals who had Beyer figures that were competitive with hers. She, like my Race 1 choice, set sail on the front end, but she was all out through the final one hundred yards to hold on gamely. But hey, a win is a win! Because of her unreliability I only bet the minimum, so I cashed for less than ten dollars.
In the fourth I thought Conquest Sabre Cat looked strong in a 2yo MSW on the turf. He rallied strongly while EIGHT wide, but was not good enough to catch my second choice and finished third. The sixth was my BEST of the day. Southern Ring was listed at an absurd 12/1 by the DRF linemaker and I knew that wasn't even remotely close to what she'd go off at today. She was a second time starter who'd chased home a decisive winner tat had earned a near triple-digit figure AND had come right back to beat winners. Southern Ring was six lengths clear of the field with a 95 BSF and got top rider Eurico DaSilva. Even if you doubted her ability to handle the turf (her debut was on the main) could you in your wildest dreams see her at double digit odds? Duh. Right to the front and set a swift pace into the lane. Two runners had dead aim on her as she approached the furlong marker but DaSilva gave her the "GO" sign and it was all over but the shouting as she absolutely crushed the field in an impressive effort under a hand ride to the wire!
I had gone "prime time" on the investment and collected a cool $30. Passed the 7th and 8th and in the finale my top choice, Bear At Last rallied some six wide down the lane at 9/5 odds but just missed, second. On the day, a superb 3-for-5 with a second and a third; and a profit on the day :)
I find it so very ironic that after tonight's racing, in three of the last four racing days at Woodbine I've enjoyed ENORMOUS success with TEN WINS from sixteen selections; but in the fourth day I went 0-for-10. Normally I'd still be oh-so-pleased with a 10-for-26 record - that's a sharp 38% - but here's the thing......the 0-for-10 day was the day I was actually at Woodbine!
I've come to enjoy the Wednesday night programs. I have something to look forward to at the end of an evening of watching television with Kim and for the most part I've enjoyed success with these race dates. I have noticed that the quality of the cards is a cut below the standards, but I have also found that if I am conservative in my wagering and careful about my spot plays I can not only get a high percentage of winners, but can also grind out a nice little profit. Such was the case tonight. In the opener it was a Maiden Special event going a mile and 70 yards. Distinctive Bay was the heavy program choice, listed at odds of 7/5. And on paper he certainly deserved the ranking. His first two career starts had earned Beyer figures of 59 and 60. Certainly nothing to shout about, but it's all about perspective. Two of his rivals this evening were debut runners coming from barns with a 3% and 14% win rate with their first time starters - not a strong angle. And the four runners with experience had earned these numbers: 21, 19, 25, 16, 0, 24, 27, 30, 21, and 26. I had two concerns - first Distinctive Bay was certain to be an ultra short price, so if he won, no matter the bet, I would not make much money, but more importantly he was getting blinkers on tonight and the barn was on a winless, 0-for-13 skid with that move. But still, I reasoned that if one of the experienced runners doubled their Beyer Distinctive Bay would have to falter greatly to lose. So I made him a minimum play. Stalked the leaders through the turn, found a seam between runners and then it was all over as he coasted home a daylight winner. I had been right about the price, he was a paltry 2/5 and I cashed for less than $10 - but hey, after going winless Sunday any win is a WIN! The second race was a five furlong spring for claimers running for a mid-level $16K tag. bet On Jack had won in June here, at this distance for $25K. You might wonder about the drop, but it looked to me like this was a spot filled with horses of that class level who needed a place to run, so you were getting a field of legitimate $20K runners entered for a notch below because there wasn't anything else available in the condition book. I liked that Bet on Jack had won for $12K and then climbed the ladder to win for $25K then $32K before being distanced for a big $40K price. Off the shelf tonight for Kevin Attard who is a 33% winner off the shelf at a big $6.32 ROI. As they left the gate he was a very generous 2/1 price and he sat in mid pack to the turn. The field began an all out sprint for the wire and I could tell that my rider had plenty of horse, but there were four of them tightly packed across the track and he had no where to run. I could see him eyeing the rail, but the quartet did not float off the wood, so he shifted slightly to what looked like a seam, but it closed! Now we were at the 1/8th pole and STILL no where to run. One of the runners had edged clear and was in full flight to the finish line when finally a spot opened up two paths outside of Bet on Jack. He swung out and hit high gear. Oh this was going to be close....big late surge.......PHOTO finish!
I wasn't sure, but I thought, just on the last bob I got it, and I did! The mutual payoff of $6.00 meant I'd collect a nice $30 for my selection, sweet! Two in a row. Nothing in the third. In the 4th, a seven furlong dash I liked Ezzthetic. I had won with him last time when he surprised everyone, including me by going right to the front. Tonight with several need-to-lead runners I was certain he'd sit off the pace. But as the gates flung open he was quickly in front by open lengths. And I found myself thinking he was going to wire the field. As they turned for home the field was closing in and he was asked to produce his stretch kick......nothing. Faded to last. Passed the next two which were hopeless handicapping scrambles in my opinion and then in he7th it was my BEST of the night. It was a non-winners of two lifetime event going nine furlongs. And I thought the key were was in the pattern buried in Easy Indigo's past performances. Look and see if you can see what I saw:
The first thing that I noticed was that when ever he comes up with a near-miss, his next effort is sharp. Two dull races to start, a good second on Nov. 9 is followed by his maiden win. A dull fifth in April, followed by a good second in May, and then a near miss by a neck. Two dull efforts, a fast closing second last out......tonight - should be a big effort. And secondly, if you toss the turf and the stakes try, then the last three route tries on the main track were sharp. I thought this all added up to a big win tonight. The one thing I could not foresee was that as they hit the backstretch he was trailing the field, although to be fair by only five lengths in a compact field, but the front runner had then crawling - a :25 and change opening quarter was worrisome for me with my pick trailing; but the half mile was an even slower :51.4. As they hit the far turn the entire field started an all-out sprint for home. Even if I was best I would have to be MULTIPLE lengths the best to make up five lengths on a field that had yet to do any running. At the top of the stretch I had serious doubts; he was closing but at the furlong marker, still, too far I thought......at the 16th pole he was flying but time was running out.......Then with a sudden burst......
Live I wasn't sure; the first two slow motion replays, I still wasn't sure, but the third I thought if the camera angle was just a shade behind I might have won, and then the official picture came up.....I WIN! Three wins from my first four selections. I watched the last race live, but I am already guaranteed a winning night. Heaven's Sake rand sharply despite the 10/1 program odds (bet down to 4/1) and was a good third. My second choice won at 5/2 odds. So for the night I finished with three wins in five picks, 60% and a profit of nearly $30! A good start to the week!
I have to be satisfied with the weekend's racing at Woodbine where I cashed on 7-of-21 selections, a strong 33% - and above the summer's 26% win rate at Woodbine. But I'd be less than honest if I didn't say I was disappointed with the way the selections played out on Sunday when Jim and I were on track for the big day. I think part of the disappointment with the handicapping results can be attributed to the set-up for the day. I'd had a big Friday with three wins from four selections. The trip to Toronto had gone very smoothly and when we arrived at our hotel it was, as advertised, very close to Woodbine, but who could have believed that as I looked out my 9th floor window I'd be looking down the home stretch to the finish line!
When I had talked to the hotel front desk from Ft. Lauderdale they had assured me it was walking distance away. But when I'd looked on a map it had indicated that it was about 2 1/2 miles away. Because I walk regularly I know that I cover a mile in about 16 minutes, so to have to walk for over half an hour did not sound like a good plan to me. But it sure looked closer than that when Jim and I decided to walk over Friday afternoon after checking in. The distance from the hotel main doors to the sidewalk was less than fifty yards and right there was the traffic light to cross the main thoroughfare. And on the opposite of the street was the Woodbine property. We merely had to walk the parking lot to arrive at the front doors. I checked the time when we walked out of the doors and when we walked in the main looby at Woodbine - ten minutes on the dot. And an added benefit.....it was in the low 60's, such a great change from the 90's in So Florida!
The facility was very, very nice with the casino on the first floor and all the racing portion of the building on the second, third and higher levels. At the end of the weekend Jim and I agreed there were only two minor glitches to the trip. The first had been a wait for the shuttle to the hotel, and now came the second one. We asked about the gift shop and were told that it had just closed, but there items on display here in the lobby to purchase. There were three polo shirt designs that we liked, and would have been happy with any one of the three. We decided to walk down to the actual gift shop to find it's location and it was indeed open. But now the issue - they had one, and one only, rack of polo shirts. Of the about twenty shirts at least fifteen of them were "Queens Plate Day" shirts and only three or four that said "Woodbine." I asked if there were more polo shirts with just "Woodbine" on the logo. No I was told. I mentioned the ones in the display at the other end of the facility and the girl said she didn't have any of those. Jim and I decided we'd buy our shirts there the next day. I told Jim about how similar this was to Churchill Downs that the two times I'd been most recently I could only find Kentucky Derby shirts, and not even a single "Churchill Downs" polo. One of the most striking differences about this track came when we walked out the doors to the outer grandstand. I had known that the turf course was on the outside with the main synthetic track on the inside. But what I was not prepared for was how very close the stands were to the grass. It looked, if you sat in the front row, like you were sitting right on top of the track. And it was NOT a wide turf course so as we watched one live race it was a thrilling visual.
We felt we had a good "lay of the land" and headed back to the hotel for what turned out to be a great meal. By the time we'd finished and headed upstairs it was well after 8 pm and we agreed to meet for breakfast at 8 am. I opened my computer and watched the replays from Saturday's card and had another excellent day with four wins, including my BEST of the day, from eight selections. So at this point I could not be more upbeat about Sunday's big day of races........3-for-4 on Friday; smooth trip; excellent hotel; 4-for-8 on Saturday. I'm on a roll of good times! The first sign of "trouble" may have been, in retrospect that as we met in the lobby ready for the day at 10:30, it was raining steadily. No worries, we got a cab within five minutes and were taken to the front door of Woodbine. Then we discovered that ALL of the shirts in the lobby area for purchase were either a "small" or a "medium." Not even a large that I might have fit in. We couldn't believe that there were not any polo shirts in our size available. We reasoned that certainly today, on a big day of racing, the main gift shop would have more out. When they opened at noon and we checked it out......no. Jim was happy with a nice ball cap and I was "satisfied" with a nice T-shirt. Post time for the first race was approaching and we made our first selection and decided on an upper level seat for the first race with a panoramic view of the track.
I checked my weather app on my phone and discovered that it was a chilly 57 degrees as we waited for the race to begin. As I had analyzed the opener, a non-winners of two lifetime allowance sprinting six furlongs on the main track it seemed pretty obvious to me that the very likely winner would be #6 Holy McNasty. He had dominated his maiden rivals and then ran strongly against winners despite breaking from post 13 to lead into the lane going seven furlongs. I felt you could toss the turf experiement after that and use his last race 81 Beyer in OPEN allowance company to rate him. The drop into 2-lifetime company and for a first time tag seemed the perfect recipe for a win. When I put together my program for the day all three of the DRF handicappers had him on top as well. I was surprised that early in the betting he was NOT the favorite, but by post time he was a more than generous 9/5. He pressed the pace into he turn, moved to a narrow lead.......and wilted down the lane to finish fifth behind my third choice who had been off for several months and had run poorly at Gulfstream this past winter in open allowance company. The second race was an entry level allowance for older and my pick, #2 Smart Spree was a Woodbine 40% Club play. Of the angles for this club, the one that has seemed most beneficial to me has been when trainer Norman McKnight gives jockey Luis Contreras the mount. The 44% win angle over the last two seasons has been at least this good to me this summer, or so it has seemed. He rated off the dueling front runners, as I anticipated, and moved strongly three-wide into the lane with dead aim on the lead. At the furlong marker he surged to the front and I was certain I had my first winner on the day! But in the final fifty yards he caught and a stretch duel to the wire ensued.....PHOTO FINISH! Smart Spree was outfinished by a runner who had a 22/2-6-3 record, wow.....go figure. The third was my "BET of the Day.' I had seen Calgary Cat run twice during this project and both times he'd been ultra-impressive in stakes action. Today he was the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes. As a finisher he would get the ideal set-up behind at least two front runners, and as an added bonus he had the top rider of the meet, Eurico DaSilva in the irons. The short six horse field was reduced to four with scratches and this seemed to work even MORE in my favor because the main threat was a "need to lead" runner who had been loose on the lead in a slow time last time out but Calgary Cat ran by him; with one of the other two being a front-runner as well he stood little chance. And the other two challengers had been a victim to Calgary Cat's closing kick not once, but TWICE each! AND Calgary Cat had won this race last year. It all unfolded according to plan as they swung into the stretch in front of Jim and I. The two front runners were dueling, Calgary Cat was ranging up effortlessly and collared the surviving pace setter at the furlong pole. But through the length of the long Woodbine stretch he could not get by. Really? But wait, INQUIRY! The look at the head-on view showed that the winner had come from the two path all the way to about the ten path forcing Calgary Cat to run at an angle to the wire. I told Jim it looked to me that he should come down, but the problem was that when he cut off the third place finisher, he was actually clear of him and he never made contact with Calgary Cat. After several minutes of review......no change. In hindsight, my rider probably should have run straight and LET the winner make contact, that probably would have brought his number down. Very disappointing start to the day. :(
Oh well, that's racing.....move on! In the forth and the fifth I only had minimum bets. Gazcader was the 3/1 second choice in the MSW for 2yo in the fourth and rallied belatedly for fifth, never a threat. In the fifth, a maiden special for older, Sky Star was another Woodbine 40% Club play for McKnight and Contreras. He was dead last mid-way through the far turn....flying late......third. Sigh...... The sixth was the first of the big graded stakes on the turf. This one was the 1 1/2 mile Grade 1 Northern Dancer. Because of the configuration of the course, these marathon races start right in front of the stands at the finish line and then in a uniquely European-like run, they go uphill through the clubhouse turn. Then as they hit the far turn they are running slightly downhill before entering the longest stretch in North America. My pick in the Arlington Million had been Bill Mott's Triple Threat who had won his first North American start in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup. But before the Million had gone to post it had poured down rain, making the course soft. As I looked through Triple Threat's past performances I noted that any time he ran on off going he didn't run his best; but on firm ground he ran superbly. I had explained this to Jim on Saturday so today when it was raining early he had asked about how I felt about the weather and my pick. About ten minutes before post time I told him that I was sticking with my pick for two reasons: (a) he did show a close finish, beaten 3 lengths in a Group 2 on "soft" ground and more importantly (b) he was a fair 6/1 price. As the favorite, no. But as I explained, it seemed like everyone was seeing the same thing, so I was going to be "outside the box" and reason that if Bill Mott thought he was ok on off-going, I'd go along. Jim and I went down to the rail and stood right in front of the gate as they burst out, and were waiting for them as they charged home. I knew right away I'd made a good choice as I could see them run up the turn and down the backstretch the red saddle cloth of #1 was tracking comfortably in third. As the field moved into the stretch jockey Joel Rosario edged Triple Threat off the rail and into the clear to challenge......
He ran very well, and it was a "good bet" but he could never get by the two in front of him and he was a solid third at a good price. But still, we were without a winner on the day. Just like the two races following the Grade 3 Bold Venture, the bridge races to the final two big graded stakes were maiden, main track sprints. In the seventh it looked to me like #10 Wall Street Wolf would be a handy winner IF he ran back to his debut last May when he set a strong pace call and while he was caught, he was eleven clear of the show runner that day. I thought you could toss the turf try off the layoff last out and he was now in a new barn that put him where he belonged in a sprint on the main track. He was bet down to 6/5 favoritism, and by the time the first quarter had been run he was on a daylight lead. He stayed there into the lane. Just like Smart Spree in the second, my pick is in front in mid-stretch.........and just like that one I could not hold on as 'Wolf faded to third. In the eighth I liked longshot American Feminism who was moving from a two-turn turf route to a one-turn seven furlong dash and dropping from MSW to a maiden claimer. I had high hopes when she rallied boldly on the turn to challenge at 11/1......but then evenly to the wire, fifth.
The ninth was the Grade 2 Canadian for older fillies and mares on the turf and it was a "Breeders' Cup Win & You're In" race with an automatic berth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. As I looked over the field initially the first thing that struck me was that all them main contenders seemed to be nearly even, according to the Beyer scale of speed and class ratings:
1-Personal Diary 90 / 2-Button Down 88 / 3-Hoop of Coulour 91 / 4-Strut The Course 92 / 7-Uchenna 93 / 9-Habbi 90 / 11-Overheard 90
So for me I thought the main question was which of these evenly matched turf runners were the best fit for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup event? Three of these had earned graded stakes wins locally - Uchenna, Strut The Course, and Overheard. But the other two had earned their figures and graded wins at arguably a "major track" venue. Personal Diary had won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in August a year ago and Hoop of Colour had earned hers in the Grade 2 Santa Ana, also at Del Mar. Adding to her appeal was that she was lightly raced and a Euro import. She'd won two of four in her European efforts, including a stakes, then had won BOTH North American starts. She seemed to have a lot of upside, the class, and the speed figure. She was my top choice. She was perfectly placed into the far turn, third tracking the leaders. She accelerated out of the turn, split horses and was IN FRONT at the furlong pole!
Down to the 16th pole she continued to hold a narrow edge, but in the final 100 yards Strut The Course came up the inside and Habibi came up the rail past her......third, again. I really, REALLY thought as I watched the race that we had this one. Ok, it all comes down to the featured Grade 1, $1 Million Ricoh Woodbine Mile. I had originally thought that this race would, without any question, be my BET of the Day as two-time Woodbine Mile champion, two-time Breeders' Cup Mile Champion, and two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan had targeted this for his 2015 comeback. His blazing bullet work in :58 and change a week ago had him sitting on a HUGE effort I thought. But then this past Monday after a routine morning gallop they'd found he had a slight tear in a ligament and he was retired. Now, as I wrote in my analysis, this was a wide-open race. And the closer I looked at it you could make a case NINE of the eleven runners. If any of them ran their race it would be no surprise whatsoever to see them in the winner's circle. So the question for all handicappers was which of those contenders did I think was most likely to run his race? With the off-going two of the nine scratched - Za Approval who NEVER runs on off going and Grand Arch, who I thought was the most likely alternative to my top pick exiting a win in the Grade 2 Fourstardave from which the runner-up, Ironicus, had come back to win with authority in a graded stakes at Saratoga. Reporting Star had won the prep for this, the Grade 2 Play the King at seven furlongs, but at 15/1 odds. But that had been his first win since an allowance score in July of 2014; Kaigun.....had finished third to Reporting Star, but in November he won the Grade 2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar and he'd been my pick in this race last year when second, beaten only a half length with a very troubled trip. He had validated that with a 4th to Wise Dan, beaten only two lengths. Tower of Texas had been second, beaten a nose in the Play The King and had won the King Edward this past June, a Grade 2 at today's mile distance, HERE. He was third off the shelf and could be ready for a big run. In North American turf events I like to look to Euro imports, especially here at Woodbine (and at Arlington). Mr. Owen and Mondialiste were the two today. What I did not like was that neither had brought their Euro rider. What I did like was that both were coming off a win and both would probably enjoy the give in the ground. Then there were the two favorites. Lea had been a turf horse and run third to Wise Dan before moving to Bill Mott's barn and he put him on the dirt. He won the Grade 3 Hal's Hope at Gulfstream (as my pick) and then won the Grade 1 Donn, both in 2014 and seemed destined to be a top older handicap horse on the dirt. But he was sick and didn't run again until this past winter in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope, where he won again (as my pick again). I thought he had excuses in his next three....in the Donn he was second chasing loose-on-the-lead and Horse-for-the-Course Constitution; in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup he was an excellent third; in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster he was second, beaten a diminishing neck when again chasing a loose on the lead winner. But in the Grade 1 Whitney last out he was 6th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. So now Mott moves him back to the turf, to "see if he fits?" I didn't like this "experiment" mentality, and even more so I didn't like that if you'd asked Mott in July where he thought Lea would be in September he would have said he was pointing for the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and then would move to the Breeders' Cup Classic with no fear of taking on American Pharoah. I thought his chances, much like the two Euros, were pure guess-work as to how he'd run today. And that brings us to my pick, Obviously. I've won many races with this guy, and if you toss the two Breeders' Cup Mile races where he ran insanely fast on the front end before being nailed late, he was a multiple Grade 1 winner who was a "need to lead" type. I liked that he drew the rail, and there would be no guessing how he'd run. Better yet no one, and I mean NO ONE else would be on the front. Seems "obvious" (ho ho ho) right? Well, here's the issue. Obviously had not run since last November in the Breeders' Cup. Could he come off THAT long of a layoff to wire a $1 Million race? And what about the give in the ground? He's typically always run on the ultra-firm So Cal turf courses. That's what the "leap of faith" on him would require. But my reasoning was this - in spite of the layoff and ground, he was, without question, THE LONE SPEED, and WOULD be on an easy lead. So to me, that fit my criteria of - if you have to take a leap of faith - who had the best chance of running their race. As they went into the gate I told Jim that Obviously typically runs a :45 half mile and if he ran :46 for the half mile, we were home free.
The gates opened and he was a step slow, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he "broke slowly. Within one hundred yards he was not only on the lead, but in front by daylight and was not even running hard. As they hit the top of the stretch Reporting Star was the only one within half a dozen lengths and still jockey Joe Talamo had yet to ask for Obviously's best run. I glanced at the jumbotron and the half mile split was an average :46.3! I thought, "even if the turf is soft and not to his liking, he's gone so much slower than he's used to AND the closers will have to fight the give in the ground to catch him." Inside the furlong marker Reporting Star had gotten within a length but I didn't think he'd run him down. But in the final two hundred yards Obviously could just not last as Lea surged but then Mondaliste, the French import split horses to win. Obviously held third. Sigh...... with my pick in the 11th scratched, and in the 12th it was off the turf, down to four horses, and my pick (for the turf) was out we left Woodbine. As I had noticed throughout the day I wasn't the only handicapper having a difficult time finding a winner. Check out my picks compared to those of three Daily Racing Form experts:
Jim and I agreed as we sat through a L-O-N-G wait for dinner at the restaurant, that it had been a great day at the races; it had been an excellent adventure/trip; everything, with the exception of cashing tickets had been as good or better than expected. I have had trips like this before where I have come away with the same attitude. I always enjoy a day at the races, regardless of the outcome. I enjoy an adventure to a new track even more, regardless of the outcome of the picks. I thought about how my first trip to Saratoga and my day there on Travers Day two years ago had both resulted in winless efforts, but how I still recalled those adventures as excellent trips. So it would be for today.
