September 23

We're In Houston!

For Kim's birthday weekend we took off from Ft. Lauderdale International this morning, bound for Houston to spend the week with Jeff, Antoinette, and our adorable grandson Cameron.  Have to say that in spite of this great photo, when he walked into he living room and saw the two of us he ran right by Kim and came running to his grandpa with his arms outstretched and this huge smile on his face.....made my weekend complete!  But enough of the family stuff, this is a racing journal!  I had handicapped the Woodbine Wednesday evening card yesterday and made the bets before we left for the airport.  Late this evening I opened up the computer and checked the results............ In the opener I didn't really want to back the favorite, Bread Winner, but he was the only runner exiting open company to run for this open $25K tag; all the others had been in restricted 2-lifetime races most recently.  He was the tepid 2/1 favorite at post time and was dueling through the far turn, only to weaken in the lane and finish fourth.  In the third I went for an upset in Jose Sea View who was first off the claim for Nicholas Gonzalez, and those paid a whopping $7.72 for every $2 bet on them.  He went right to the front at a big 9/2 price and was clear into the lane......looking at cashing for over $50 but he was caught in the final 16th, second.  In the fourth I went with Midnight Trace for trainer Paul Biamonte.  Tonight this guy was putting on blinkers, and that had resulted in two wins from the four times he'd used this move.  Midnight Trace was dropping from $40K runners into this $20K sprint after flashing speed through a wicked :44.4 half mile split last time out.  He went right to the front, but before the first half mile was run he was being hounded by a 12/1 longshot.  Into the turn they dueled and that price horse actually got a head in front.  But Midnight Trace came back and edged clear into the stretch.  But the damage was done, he'd been softened up.  As they hit the furlong pole one runner was coming up the rail and one was flying down the outside.  Again he looked to have been headed inside the final sixteenth, but with one last sure it was a PHOTO FINISH! 

 

I thought watching it live that he'd had his nose down on the wire, but as you can see it was VERY close.  Midnight Trace was the 6/5 favorite at post time, so with my double investment my first winner of the evening resulted in a return of just shy of $25.  In the sixth I really liked Coastal Moon for trainer Sid Attard.  He had all the typical angles, but what I liked most was that he always seemed to run two dull races and then pop a big one on the drop in class - this had resulted in both is last two victories.  Tonight he was coming of two dull efforts vs. much better and dropping in class.  The crowd wasn't fooled and pounded him to 3/5 favoritism.  He stalked the pace into the turn, was asked to run ..... and didn't respond; evenly to the wire fourth.  In the late-night finale my top choice was Danger Bay.  Top jockey Eurico DaSilva was taking over tonight, and any horse he's one deserves a second look.  Scanning down through the past performances revealed DaSilva had been up on only three races and ALL of them were big figure efforts.  Tonight Danger Bay was dropping in class and moving to the distance - 1 1/16th mile on the main track - that had earned him his best career figure.  The gates sprung open and DaSilva took him right to the front.  Honestly, here at Woodbine if you are going to win on the lead you have to not only be the best/fastest runner in the field, but I've found that the track plays very kindly to pressers and closers, so you have to be MUCH the best.  By the time they'd straightened onto the backstretch a 25/1 longshot had moved to challenge and DaSilva let that one go on with it while he held his position on the rail.  He asked Danger Bay for some run heading through the far turn and he responded to glide up to collar the leader who's jockey was all over him.  As heads turned for home the closers were coming but now Danger Bay found another gear and spurted away as MUCH the best!  He was the handicapper's choice at post time, but at a generous 9/5 price. 

 

I'd doubled the bet so I would be having nearly $30 deposited into my TwinSpires account!  So for the night, I won with 2-of-5 handicapping selections, a sharp 40% win rate.  That runs my Woodbine totals to 12-for-29 since leaving Toronto, over 40%!  I seem to have found my best stride for this "Road To The Breeders' Cup" handicapping project!