Breeders' Cup Preview Day
Because we are in Houston, and tonight is "Game Night" for Jeff's team, the HBU Huskies, I was obviously not going to have a full-scale attack on the national racing scene in spite of it being "Breeders' Cup Preview Day" with most of the big stars getting in their final tune-ups in a big graded stakes at either Santa Anita or Belmont. So my plan for the day was to handicap the Woodbine card as part of my normal routine, and then create my own card through brisnet.com with all of the stakes races from across the country, focusing mainly on the two big BC preview race cards. I downloaded stakes events from Churchill, Belmont, Santa Anita, and one fro Thistledowns in Cleveland to go with my picks from Woodbine. I made my bets mid-morning and then spent the day with the family as we headed to Sam Houston State University for the 6 pm kickoff. Here's our grandson, the biggest Huskie fan of them all.......Once we got back to the house and Cameron was settled in be I opened up the Internet and began to relive the day of racing. The first selection came from Woodbine in a MSW turf sprint. I liked Conquest Bespoke who was 8/1 in theprogram. He was outrun by a quality field in his debut and the third place colt has come back to win two stakes. Thought he might show more than anticipated today. But as they left the gate the fans had hammered him all the way down to 9/5. He stalked the leader to the turn, made his move, but was outfinished by a 2/1 runner, second. Next up was the Grade 1 Beldame going a one-turn nine furlongs at Belmont for older fillies & mares, serving as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Distaff. I did not like Wedding Toast, who was a big-time horse-for-the-course at Belmont, but I thought she'd be overbet and might be ripe for the upset. My problem was I couldn't find anyone I was thrilled about. But I settled on Todd Pletcher's Curalina, a three-year-old taking on older, as a logical potential upsetter. The two fought it out into the lane before the favorite drew off and my pick was second, again. Back to Toronto for a maiden special sprint for two-year-olds. My selection was Generous Touch. It looked obvious that the favorite was going to be Crumblin' Spirit who was second, beaten a head in a stakes race by the multiple stakes winning Caren (who came right back off those wins to run big in a Grade 2 prep for the Breeders' Cup on Woodbine Mile weekend). But I thought that maybe, just maybe Generous Touch who was also second, beaten a nose in her debut, and again in her second start, might have a chance at the upset. If Beyer figures mean anything, which they do to me, but less so with juveniles, both of the favorite's figs were better than anything the rest of the field had run. As I re-read my analysis prior to the race I thought I'd picked Crumblin's Spirit, but I'd bet Generous. Smarter than the average bear as Generous pressed the 71 leader into the turn and then opened up in full flight for the wire by daylight. The favorite came running, but I'd beat her to the punch and crossed the wire first. I'd double the bet on Generous Touch. The win payoff of $8.30 meant I'd be cashing for over $40 with my first winner on this big day. Right back in the sixth I really liked Keen Gizmo going a mile and a sixteenth in an entry level allowance. As I wrote in my analysis, you either really like even-money favorite Keen Gizmo, or you think he's a vulnerable favorite which will get you a nice price. For me, the key fact was this: from the combined 100 races of the rest of the field, ONE figure was an 84, the rest were all below 82. Keen Gizmo's last three figures were 89-93-84. Duh. He was sent off at what I thought was a more-than-fair 1/2 price as he pressed the 9/1 front runner to midway down the backstretch. Jockey Luis Contreras could hold him no more and he glided to the front opening up willingly. He was daylight in front turning for home and just demolished the field. The $3.10 payoff - love those extra nickel and dime payoffs at Woodbine! - led to a return of nearly $25 from my triple investment on my "best" at Woodbine!.
The next race listed on my sheet was the Catalaunch from Thistledowns in Cleveland. When I downloaded the Brisney stakes races I thought that I'd seen there were a couple of stakes races from this track, but it turned out this was the only one. I didn't know any of the horses, but Jac's Fact was the "duh-obvious" winner on paper. He'd won three straight local races, his last two figures were better than any lifetime number from the rest of the field, and from a pace scenario he looked to be sitting dream trip behind dueling front runners, but well ahead of deep closers. As they hit the turn I was surprised he wasn't already in front, but by the furlong marker he had taken control and romped home. I'd doubled the bet and so I'd cash for over $15 on the 3/5 favorite.
I was second at a nice 4/1 price in the 7th at Woodbine in a 2yo MSW with Autonomic before the graded stakes races began. The 7th at Belmont was the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom. La Verdad is one of the quickest front-running fillies in the country. But, any time she steps up into graded company outside of NY-bred stakes, she struggles to hold on. At least that was the "old La Verdad." Last April her connections had tried again for black type in the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct and she romped easily (as my top choice). They tried another graded event in May, the Grade 3 Vagrancy she was all out to hang on, but she won again. Her next was a state-bred stakes and in her career-best form there was no beating her as she rolled by seven widening lengths earning the comment in the form, "....no doubt about it....." Then last time out she stepped up to wire the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at the prestigious Saratoga meet. Knowing the "old La Verdad" I thought she might be vulnerable today. But as I looked over the field, not only were her numbers best, but any thought of her regressing against top sprinters could be dismissed because she'd drawn inside and was the L-O-N-E speed. Still, I couldn't shake the multiple times I'd beaten her in just these kinds of spots, so I only doubled the bet. She cruised into the lane well in front. Inside the final 16th a late closer was getting to her, but it was too late. She'd won her fifth graded stakes in a row.
I cashed for over $15! At Churchill Downs Midnight Cello disappointed in 4th at 3/1; then in the Unzip Me Stakes, sprinting down the hillside at Santa Anita on their fall opening day program, I could not find a legitimate stakes winner to back. But Curlin's Fox had won both tries down the hill. And that's usually key in those events. He was the 4/5 favorite, but was a non-threatening third. My final bet at Woodbine was in their featured La Prevoyante Stakes. This one mile turf event looked pretty wide open to me. But luckily for my handicapping, I have the Woodbine Handicapper and it's Woodbine 40% Club stats. My pick was Conquest Strate Up who was 6/1 in the program. As a Conquest Stable runner trained by Mark Casse, that's club material baby! As the field approached the top of the stretch I thought my pick was hopelessly out of as she was at the back. But once heads turned towards the wire she seemed to have discovered a new gear. Jockey Alan Garcia threaded through runners to get clear on the outside and she nailed the leader in the final strides!
The upset win was good for a $12.30 payoff on the board so I'd be cashing for over $30 - my second big score here at Woodbine! The Grade 3 Pilgrim for juveniles on the turf at Belmont attracted my attention because Javier Castellano was riding a Chad Brown colt who was 6/1 in the program. That Brown would send the colt here for his first try against winners said a lot I thought. He was blocked into the lane, found a seam on the rail, burst through and just missed when third beaten less than a length. At Churchill, the Lucas Classic at one time thought maybe American Pharoah would show up, but he did not. I liked Departing who has made a living in listed stakes while running competitively in graded events. He was the 6/5 favorite, but was a narrowly beaten second. The ninth at Belmont was the Grade 1 Vosburgh going six furlongs as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Far and away the east coast - and maybe national - sprint division leader has been Todd Pletcher's Rock Fall. He has been a multiple winner for me and last time out he scored his first Grade 1 win by a nose in the Vanderbilt at Saratoga. I thought he looked MUCH the best in this spot and listed him as my "Belmont BEST BET." But then late Friday I read that his connections were saying openly that he wasn't "fully geared up" but they thought he would be "good enough." I paused and wondered if he was a good bet, but then my take on it was that they had that much confidence in his ability and that maybe this hinted at his peak performance coming next out at the Breeders' Cup in Keeneland. He was still 2/5 at post time, which I thought was fair considering his edge on the field. He rated nicely to the top of the stretch, moved four wide into the lead and then "dueled" with Stallwalkin Dude who he'd narrowly defeated last time out. I use quotes on the "dueled" because the rider for 'Dude was all over his horse while Javier Castellano was hand riding, though to be fair vigorously, Rock Fall. It was never in doubt.
The "prime time" investment got me back nearly $30, but as I often say, it wasn't so much about the money as the fact that I put my money where my confidence was and I was right! All that was left on my sheet were four Grade 1 races from the Santa Anita Preview card. In the Grade 1 Frontrunner for two-year-old colts I thought Nyquist was the best of the west coast juveniles, but I wanted to take a shot against him going two turns. I went with Bob Baffert's Mt. Veeder. At 6/1 he hounded the favorite into the lane, but when that one went on - to win by the way, Mt. Veeder faded to sixth. The 7th at Santa Anita was my BET of the Day - the Grade 1 Zenyatta featuring superstar Beholder. Since last April she's made short work of the older fillies & mares in stakes company, running like it's a morning workout, literally jogging home. So last time out her connections tried older handicap males and stretched her out to a mile and a quarter in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Equally devastating in her win they announced that she'd be pointed to a showdown with Triple Crown champion American Pharoah and a shot at horse of the year. So as a prep today, back with the fillies and mares, there was little chance of a fair price. The only concern might have been if she would bounce or not be asked for 100%. But I know her connections and how they treat her. They've publicly said they will only run her when she is primed for a big effort. And that would not be needed today. She was breaking from post nine with a short run to the first turn, and maybe against older male stars in the Classic that could be a problem, but not here. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens kept her wide and in the clear to mid-way down the backside and then let her go. Another public workout - she was sensational in victory.
My $50 win bet got back a whopping $55! But again, it wasn't about the money it was about my confidence and willingness to put that much on her - and be right! Earlier in the day Jeff and I had talked about the races today before he left for his game. And I told him that in the Grade 1 Chandelier for 2yo fillies I thought there might be a young filly who just might be the "next Beholder." Her name was Songbird. She was my prime-time pick and she did not disappoint as she was nearly as easy a winner as Beholder.
If she can carry her form to Kentucky for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she'll be a big time play for me. The last bet of the day came in the Grade 1 Awesome Again for older handicap runners. I really thought that last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern would bounce back today. He loves the Santa Anita track where he's a perfect 3-for-3 and he'd blistered a five furlong bullet in :59.1. He was the 6/5 favorite but had little response when challenged in mid-stretch; third. So for the day I was a fantastic 8-for-17 with a nice profit on the day! ON TO THE BREEDERS' CUP!
The "prime time" investment got me back nearly $30, but as I often say, it wasn't so much about the money as the fact that I put my money where my confidence was and I was right! All that was left on my sheet were four Grade 1 races from the Santa Anita Preview card. In the Grade 1 Frontrunner for two-year-old colts I thought Nyquist was the best of the west coast juveniles, but I wanted to take a shot against him going two turns. I went with Bob Baffert's Mt. Veeder. At 6/1 he hounded the favorite into the lane, but when that one went on - to win by the way, Mt. Veeder faded to sixth. The 7th at Santa Anita was my BET of the Day - the Grade 1 Zenyatta featuring superstar Beholder. Since last April she's made short work of the older fillies & mares in stakes company, running like it's a morning workout, literally jogging home. So last time out her connections tried older handicap males and stretched her out to a mile and a quarter in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Equally devastating in her win they announced that she'd be pointed to a showdown with Triple Crown champion American Pharoah and a shot at horse of the year. So as a prep today, back with the fillies and mares, there was little chance of a fair price. The only concern might have been if she would bounce or not be asked for 100%. But I know her connections and how they treat her. They've publicly said they will only run her when she is primed for a big effort. And that would not be needed today. She was breaking from post nine with a short run to the first turn, and maybe against older male stars in the Classic that could be a problem, but not here. Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens kept her wide and in the clear to mid-way down the backside and then let her go. Another public workout - she was sensational in victory.
My $50 win bet got back a whopping $55! But again, it wasn't about the money it was about my confidence and willingness to put that much on her - and be right! Earlier in the day Jeff and I had talked about the races today before he left for his game. And I told him that in the Grade 1 Chandelier for 2yo fillies I thought there might be a young filly who just might be the "next Beholder." Her name was Songbird. She was my prime-time pick and she did not disappoint as she was nearly as easy a winner as Beholder.
If she can carry her form to Kentucky for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she'll be a big time play for me. The last bet of the day came in the Grade 1 Awesome Again for older handicap runners. I really thought that last year's Breeders' Cup Classic winner Bayern would bounce back today. He loves the Santa Anita track where he's a perfect 3-for-3 and he'd blistered a five furlong bullet in :59.1. He was the 6/5 favorite but had little response when challenged in mid-stretch; third. So for the day I was a fantastic 8-for-17 with a nice profit on the day! ON TO THE BREEDERS' CUP!
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