Day 28: PHOTO FINISH WINS!
I find it so very ironic that after tonight's racing, in three of the last four racing days at Woodbine I've enjoyed ENORMOUS success with TEN WINS from sixteen selections; but in the fourth day I went 0-for-10. Normally I'd still be oh-so-pleased with a 10-for-26 record - that's a sharp 38% - but here's the thing......the 0-for-10 day was the day I was actually at Woodbine!
I've come to enjoy the Wednesday night programs. I have something to look forward to at the end of an evening of watching television with Kim and for the most part I've enjoyed success with these race dates. I have noticed that the quality of the cards is a cut below the standards, but I have also found that if I am conservative in my wagering and careful about my spot plays I can not only get a high percentage of winners, but can also grind out a nice little profit. Such was the case tonight. In the opener it was a Maiden Special event going a mile and 70 yards. Distinctive Bay was the heavy program choice, listed at odds of 7/5. And on paper he certainly deserved the ranking. His first two career starts had earned Beyer figures of 59 and 60. Certainly nothing to shout about, but it's all about perspective. Two of his rivals this evening were debut runners coming from barns with a 3% and 14% win rate with their first time starters - not a strong angle. And the four runners with experience had earned these numbers: 21, 19, 25, 16, 0, 24, 27, 30, 21, and 26. I had two concerns - first Distinctive Bay was certain to be an ultra short price, so if he won, no matter the bet, I would not make much money, but more importantly he was getting blinkers on tonight and the barn was on a winless, 0-for-13 skid with that move. But still, I reasoned that if one of the experienced runners doubled their Beyer Distinctive Bay would have to falter greatly to lose. So I made him a minimum play. Stalked the leaders through the turn, found a seam between runners and then it was all over as he coasted home a daylight winner. I had been right about the price, he was a paltry 2/5 and I cashed for less than $10 - but hey, after going winless Sunday any win is a WIN! The second race was a five furlong spring for claimers running for a mid-level $16K tag. bet On Jack had won in June here, at this distance for $25K. You might wonder about the drop, but it looked to me like this was a spot filled with horses of that class level who needed a place to run, so you were getting a field of legitimate $20K runners entered for a notch below because there wasn't anything else available in the condition book. I liked that Bet on Jack had won for $12K and then climbed the ladder to win for $25K then $32K before being distanced for a big $40K price. Off the shelf tonight for Kevin Attard who is a 33% winner off the shelf at a big $6.32 ROI. As they left the gate he was a very generous 2/1 price and he sat in mid pack to the turn. The field began an all out sprint for the wire and I could tell that my rider had plenty of horse, but there were four of them tightly packed across the track and he had no where to run. I could see him eyeing the rail, but the quartet did not float off the wood, so he shifted slightly to what looked like a seam, but it closed! Now we were at the 1/8th pole and STILL no where to run. One of the runners had edged clear and was in full flight to the finish line when finally a spot opened up two paths outside of Bet on Jack. He swung out and hit high gear. Oh this was going to be close....big late surge.......PHOTO finish!
I wasn't sure, but I thought, just on the last bob I got it, and I did! The mutual payoff of $6.00 meant I'd collect a nice $30 for my selection, sweet! Two in a row. Nothing in the third. In the 4th, a seven furlong dash I liked Ezzthetic. I had won with him last time when he surprised everyone, including me by going right to the front. Tonight with several need-to-lead runners I was certain he'd sit off the pace. But as the gates flung open he was quickly in front by open lengths. And I found myself thinking he was going to wire the field. As they turned for home the field was closing in and he was asked to produce his stretch kick......nothing. Faded to last. Passed the next two which were hopeless handicapping scrambles in my opinion and then in he7th it was my BEST of the night. It was a non-winners of two lifetime event going nine furlongs. And I thought the key were was in the pattern buried in Easy Indigo's past performances. Look and see if you can see what I saw:
The first thing that I noticed was that when ever he comes up with a near-miss, his next effort is sharp. Two dull races to start, a good second on Nov. 9 is followed by his maiden win. A dull fifth in April, followed by a good second in May, and then a near miss by a neck. Two dull efforts, a fast closing second last out......tonight - should be a big effort. And secondly, if you toss the turf and the stakes try, then the last three route tries on the main track were sharp. I thought this all added up to a big win tonight. The one thing I could not foresee was that as they hit the backstretch he was trailing the field, although to be fair by only five lengths in a compact field, but the front runner had then crawling - a :25 and change opening quarter was worrisome for me with my pick trailing; but the half mile was an even slower :51.4. As they hit the far turn the entire field started an all-out sprint for home. Even if I was best I would have to be MULTIPLE lengths the best to make up five lengths on a field that had yet to do any running. At the top of the stretch I had serious doubts; he was closing but at the furlong marker, still, too far I thought......at the 16th pole he was flying but time was running out.......Then with a sudden burst......
Live I wasn't sure; the first two slow motion replays, I still wasn't sure, but the third I thought if the camera angle was just a shade behind I might have won, and then the official picture came up.....I WIN! Three wins from my first four selections. I watched the last race live, but I am already guaranteed a winning night. Heaven's Sake rand sharply despite the 10/1 program odds (bet down to 4/1) and was a good third. My second choice won at 5/2 odds. So for the night I finished with three wins in five picks, 60% and a profit of nearly $30! A good start to the week!
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