An EXCELLENT Saturday!
Today we were in Orlando visiting our kids and it was the start of the college football season. At first I didn't think there would be many big races today, but when I looked at the stakes schedule I saw that there were seven stakes races at Gulfstream alone as it was the second leg of the Florida Sire Series. There were also big races at Parx, Saratoga, Monmouth, and Del Mar and a couple of stakes at Kentucky Downs. So I did my handicapping in two parts. First, I downloaded the full DRF past performances for both Woodbine - for the Woodbine Project - and for Gulfstream. Then, instead of downloading the full card I went to my Brisnet account and used their "build your own card" feature like I did last fall, and put together all the stakes races. When it was all said and done I had twenty-four races to play. As the college football season dawned today and we were having breakfast at The Bagel King - cinnamon swirl bagel, toasted, with a side of bacon - oh my - I was considering if I would simply make all the bets and watch later or if I would play throughout the day. I decided on the latter. My first pick was from Woodbine where I like Obeah Woman in the second, an entry level allowance going nine furlongs on the main. I liked that she was a three time winner on the local surface and one o those, the most recent but was at today's nine furlong distance. But to me the key was if you drew a line through her three stakes tries, she was 4/3-1-0 locally and that second was to a winner who came right back to win. Toss in paired Beyer figures and it was all good enough to point out a triple investment. She was sent off at what I thought was a fair 6/5 price and stalked the leaders into the turn. When asked she accelerated and was quickly open lengths in front and it was all over. I cashed for over $35 to kick of the day! A half hour later the third at Woodbine was a claiming sprint where I liked Marcian. He was the 3/5 favorite in a srint just like this but could not get by loose-on-the-lead Starship Sabrina who was running in this spot as well. I noted it would not be a surprise to see a repeat but to me I thought that a reverse was more likely. First, Starship was not expected to run that well at 20/1 last time out an she got a rider switch. But most importantly she would not get an easy lead today and I thought Marcian would run back to her 3/5 odds of last time out, but at a better price. Sure enough, today she was a healthy 2/1. She had to run down Starship Sabrina late, but that one had had to work today and in deep stretch I was up in time to score. In retrospect I should have invested more, but I was trying to play more conservatively, so the minimum investment on a $6.50 winner got me back over $16.
Two-for-two with cashed tickets worth over $50, I cannot complain about my day's start! I won my third in a row with the first stakes race of the day at Gulfstream, the Jewel Princess. I liked Josdesanimeaux who would have had a perfect 3-for-3 turf record since moving into Chad Brown's barn, but two back she stumbled at the start and lost her rider. I thought she would get a nice tracking trip behind Katie's Kiss who was a turf sprinter by trade. She was sure to be on the lead, but in her lone try going a route of ground she weakened late; I thought the same would be true. But as they went through the opening segments of the race Katie's Kiss, under leading rider Tyler Gafflione, as just walking on the front end as she was on a daylight lead through pedestrian splits of :24.9, :50.1, and 1:15 and change for three quarters. Worse, Josdesanimeaux was well off the pace heading into the turn. But now she was starting to roll. But at the furlong marker it looked to be all over. Jockey Eddie Castro would not give in and kept asking. Inside the 16th pole you could see her hit a new gear and she was gaining, so close, head-bobbing finish......
YES! She was JUST up in time to win. She paid $4.20 and I cashed for over $20. But if you watch the replay (below) you'll note what I saw, and that was that it was raining pretty good in Hallandale. Unlike the old Calder management Gulfstream tries to stay on the grass, but this looked like significant rain to me and sure enough soon they were off the turf for the rest of the day costing me two of my stakes selections. In the 4th at Woodbine my winning streak came to a halt as Flashy Patch was pressing the pace before being cut off in mid-stretch, then ran evenly to the wire when 4th at a healthy 5/1. Next was the sixth at Woodbine, a near identical race to the second, except where that one was for fillies and mares, this one was for the boys. Glenfell was exiting a race at his level wher the winner was daylight clear of the place who was also well clear of Glenfell and he was over two lengths clear of the rest of the field. This kind of separation is often indicative of a strong race. He was lightly raced with Beyers all climbing - he's the pick. He dueled from the gate to the far turn, opened up and seemed on his way to a strong win but then was weakening late as the field closed in.......but held on!
I collected over $18 on another minimum bet! I lost two in a row, the first a surprise, the second not so much.....at Parx Page Mckenny had nearly everything in her favor and was the top runner in all four Brisnet categories. No surprise when she was 3/5 leaving the gate considering she was a perfect 3-for-3 in Philadelpha. But when she came to the two front runners in mid-stretch she simply couldn't get by and was second in a 3-way photo. Next at Saratoga I went with Javier Castellano on a 6/1 shot in the Grade 3 Saranac....good try, but fifth. I then went on a four race winning spree. The eighth at Woodbine was the featured Swynford Stakes for juveniles. Riker had faced pasce pressure in both of his carer starts and STILL on them both courageously, the last being a stakes win in the Colin. Today it looked to me like the lead would be his alone for taking. His last race 90 Beyer was tons better than anything his rivals had run and no one had run nearly as fast as his pace figures indicated he was going to run. He looked L-O-N-G gone and I tripled the bet. Right to the front in complete command. It would have appeared to a casual race fan as they came out of the turn that the field was gaining on him but I could tell he had not been asked yet. When the rider shook the reins he re-broke and that was that. He paid a more than fair $3.40 and I was going to collect over $25! WHOOOO HOOOOO.
The 10th at Parx was the Dr. Garofalo Memorial for fillies and mares going seven furlongs. Discreet Senorita was the top ranked "Speed Last Race," "Back Speed," "Current Class," "Average Last 3 Class," and "Prime Power" on the Brisnet print out. It doesn't get much better than that. And she would have a nice pace set-up for her closing kick it appeared. To seal the deal, if you looked down her pp's the last two times she'd raced in state-bred company like this, she was a daylight winner. I could not have scripted the race much better as she tracked the leaders, as expected, swept by them into the lane, as expected, and drew off as much the best, as expected! She paid $3.60 and I cashed for nearly $30 on my triple investment. The race listed next on my sheet was the first of two Grade 1 races from Saratoga on their closing weekend. Six years ago to the day superstar filly Rachel's Alexandra had beaten older males in the Grade 1 Woodward as one of the most spectacular and thrilling races I've ever seen. Today her daughter, Rachel's Valentina was running in the grade 1 Spinaway. It looked to me like she was the real deal and I went so far as to note in my analysis that ".....you read it here first....." that she would be a major player in next spring's Kentucky Oaks. She tracked the pace into the stretch, moved three wide, collared the leaders inside the furlong marker and edged clear late. I cashed for nearly $30 again!
Within ten minutes it was time for my lone bet at Monmouth Park on the Jersey Shore. It was the Grade 3 Boiling Springs on the turf for 3yo fillies. I thought Chad Brown's Strict Compliance was strictly the one to beat. She was already a multiple stakes winner and she looked to be getting a strong pace set-up for her closing kick. But instead, heading into the far turn leading rider Paco Lopez had stolen away to the easiest of leads on Todd Pletcher's Isabella Sings. As they swept through the turn Joe Bravo had Strict Compliance on the move, but Lopez was still sitting chilly on Isabella. As they turned for home Lopez asked for run and got separation again so that at the 1/8th pole he had what looked like an insurmountable two length lead. But inside the final two hundred yards Strict Compliance surged......PHOTO FINISH!
Yes, that's me on the outside, WINNING! Another $25 into the bankroll! Three straight losses did little for me - Big Thrill a dismal 8th at 3/2 in Gulfstream's Susan's Girl; Alpha Bettor a dull 4th at 3/1 at Woodbine; and Emotional Kitten was clear in mid-stretch at 6/5 and I was counting my winnings in the Mrs. Penny Stakes before Kitten's Joy came flying on the outside and nailed her in the final strides. Sigh......I cashed on my final winner in the other Grade 1 at Saratoga with Todd Pletcher's Liam's Map. I'd had Liam's Map several times already and had watched him get nailed on the final jump in the Grade 1 Whitney by multiple graded stakes winner Honor Code. He'd run exceptionally fast on the lead that day, but today he looked to have an easy lead and was getting Javier Castellano - who seems to be winning every stakes race at the Spa this summer. Sure enough, right to the front and never looked back!
I cashed for over $20 on my final victory of the day. The final stats for my handicapping today:
17 Selections / NINE WINS - 3 seconds, 1 third
PROFIT $40.00
Adding to the success of the day, my Florida Gators romped handily 61-13 and my son Jeff's team - Houston Baptist University - won handily 51-7. It was a great day!
Saturday September 5 Video Highlights
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