A Great Weekend
Woodbine Mile DAY Disappoints On The Track
I have to be satisfied with the weekend's racing at Woodbine where I cashed on 7-of-21 selections, a strong 33% - and above the summer's 26% win rate at Woodbine. But I'd be less than honest if I didn't say I was disappointed with the way the selections played out on Sunday when Jim and I were on track for the big day. I think part of the disappointment with the handicapping results can be attributed to the set-up for the day. I'd had a big Friday with three wins from four selections. The trip to Toronto had gone very smoothly and when we arrived at our hotel it was, as advertised, very close to Woodbine, but who could have believed that as I looked out my 9th floor window I'd be looking down the home stretch to the finish line!
When I had talked to the hotel front desk from Ft. Lauderdale they had assured me it was walking distance away. But when I'd looked on a map it had indicated that it was about 2 1/2 miles away. Because I walk regularly I know that I cover a mile in about 16 minutes, so to have to walk for over half an hour did not sound like a good plan to me. But it sure looked closer than that when Jim and I decided to walk over Friday afternoon after checking in. The distance from the hotel main doors to the sidewalk was less than fifty yards and right there was the traffic light to cross the main thoroughfare. And on the opposite of the street was the Woodbine property. We merely had to walk the parking lot to arrive at the front doors. I checked the time when we walked out of the doors and when we walked in the main looby at Woodbine - ten minutes on the dot. And an added benefit.....it was in the low 60's, such a great change from the 90's in So Florida!
The facility was very, very nice with the casino on the first floor and all the racing portion of the building on the second, third and higher levels. At the end of the weekend Jim and I agreed there were only two minor glitches to the trip. The first had been a wait for the shuttle to the hotel, and now came the second one. We asked about the gift shop and were told that it had just closed, but there items on display here in the lobby to purchase. There were three polo shirt designs that we liked, and would have been happy with any one of the three. We decided to walk down to the actual gift shop to find it's location and it was indeed open. But now the issue - they had one, and one only, rack of polo shirts. Of the about twenty shirts at least fifteen of them were "Queens Plate Day" shirts and only three or four that said "Woodbine." I asked if there were more polo shirts with just "Woodbine" on the logo. No I was told. I mentioned the ones in the display at the other end of the facility and the girl said she didn't have any of those. Jim and I decided we'd buy our shirts there the next day. I told Jim about how similar this was to Churchill Downs that the two times I'd been most recently I could only find Kentucky Derby shirts, and not even a single "Churchill Downs" polo. One of the most striking differences about this track came when we walked out the doors to the outer grandstand. I had known that the turf course was on the outside with the main synthetic track on the inside. But what I was not prepared for was how very close the stands were to the grass. It looked, if you sat in the front row, like you were sitting right on top of the track. And it was NOT a wide turf course so as we watched one live race it was a thrilling visual.
We felt we had a good "lay of the land" and headed back to the hotel for what turned out to be a great meal. By the time we'd finished and headed upstairs it was well after 8 pm and we agreed to meet for breakfast at 8 am. I opened my computer and watched the replays from Saturday's card and had another excellent day with four wins, including my BEST of the day, from eight selections. So at this point I could not be more upbeat about Sunday's big day of races........3-for-4 on Friday; smooth trip; excellent hotel; 4-for-8 on Saturday. I'm on a roll of good times! The first sign of "trouble" may have been, in retrospect that as we met in the lobby ready for the day at 10:30, it was raining steadily. No worries, we got a cab within five minutes and were taken to the front door of Woodbine. Then we discovered that ALL of the shirts in the lobby area for purchase were either a "small" or a "medium." Not even a large that I might have fit in. We couldn't believe that there were not any polo shirts in our size available. We reasoned that certainly today, on a big day of racing, the main gift shop would have more out. When they opened at noon and we checked it out......no. Jim was happy with a nice ball cap and I was "satisfied" with a nice T-shirt. Post time for the first race was approaching and we made our first selection and decided on an upper level seat for the first race with a panoramic view of the track.
I checked my weather app on my phone and discovered that it was a chilly 57 degrees as we waited for the race to begin. As I had analyzed the opener, a non-winners of two lifetime allowance sprinting six furlongs on the main track it seemed pretty obvious to me that the very likely winner would be #6 Holy McNasty. He had dominated his maiden rivals and then ran strongly against winners despite breaking from post 13 to lead into the lane going seven furlongs. I felt you could toss the turf experiement after that and use his last race 81 Beyer in OPEN allowance company to rate him. The drop into 2-lifetime company and for a first time tag seemed the perfect recipe for a win. When I put together my program for the day all three of the DRF handicappers had him on top as well. I was surprised that early in the betting he was NOT the favorite, but by post time he was a more than generous 9/5. He pressed the pace into he turn, moved to a narrow lead.......and wilted down the lane to finish fifth behind my third choice who had been off for several months and had run poorly at Gulfstream this past winter in open allowance company. The second race was an entry level allowance for older and my pick, #2 Smart Spree was a Woodbine 40% Club play. Of the angles for this club, the one that has seemed most beneficial to me has been when trainer Norman McKnight gives jockey Luis Contreras the mount. The 44% win angle over the last two seasons has been at least this good to me this summer, or so it has seemed. He rated off the dueling front runners, as I anticipated, and moved strongly three-wide into the lane with dead aim on the lead. At the furlong marker he surged to the front and I was certain I had my first winner on the day! But in the final fifty yards he caught and a stretch duel to the wire ensued.....PHOTO FINISH! Smart Spree was outfinished by a runner who had a 22/2-6-3 record, wow.....go figure. The third was my "BET of the Day.' I had seen Calgary Cat run twice during this project and both times he'd been ultra-impressive in stakes action. Today he was the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes. As a finisher he would get the ideal set-up behind at least two front runners, and as an added bonus he had the top rider of the meet, Eurico DaSilva in the irons. The short six horse field was reduced to four with scratches and this seemed to work even MORE in my favor because the main threat was a "need to lead" runner who had been loose on the lead in a slow time last time out but Calgary Cat ran by him; with one of the other two being a front-runner as well he stood little chance. And the other two challengers had been a victim to Calgary Cat's closing kick not once, but TWICE each! AND Calgary Cat had won this race last year. It all unfolded according to plan as they swung into the stretch in front of Jim and I. The two front runners were dueling, Calgary Cat was ranging up effortlessly and collared the surviving pace setter at the furlong pole. But through the length of the long Woodbine stretch he could not get by. Really? But wait, INQUIRY! The look at the head-on view showed that the winner had come from the two path all the way to about the ten path forcing Calgary Cat to run at an angle to the wire. I told Jim it looked to me that he should come down, but the problem was that when he cut off the third place finisher, he was actually clear of him and he never made contact with Calgary Cat. After several minutes of review......no change. In hindsight, my rider probably should have run straight and LET the winner make contact, that probably would have brought his number down. Very disappointing start to the day. :(
Oh well, that's racing.....move on! In the forth and the fifth I only had minimum bets. Gazcader was the 3/1 second choice in the MSW for 2yo in the fourth and rallied belatedly for fifth, never a threat. In the fifth, a maiden special for older, Sky Star was another Woodbine 40% Club play for McKnight and Contreras. He was dead last mid-way through the far turn....flying late......third. Sigh...... The sixth was the first of the big graded stakes on the turf. This one was the 1 1/2 mile Grade 1 Northern Dancer. Because of the configuration of the course, these marathon races start right in front of the stands at the finish line and then in a uniquely European-like run, they go uphill through the clubhouse turn. Then as they hit the far turn they are running slightly downhill before entering the longest stretch in North America. My pick in the Arlington Million had been Bill Mott's Triple Threat who had won his first North American start in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup. But before the Million had gone to post it had poured down rain, making the course soft. As I looked through Triple Threat's past performances I noted that any time he ran on off going he didn't run his best; but on firm ground he ran superbly. I had explained this to Jim on Saturday so today when it was raining early he had asked about how I felt about the weather and my pick. About ten minutes before post time I told him that I was sticking with my pick for two reasons: (a) he did show a close finish, beaten 3 lengths in a Group 2 on "soft" ground and more importantly (b) he was a fair 6/1 price. As the favorite, no. But as I explained, it seemed like everyone was seeing the same thing, so I was going to be "outside the box" and reason that if Bill Mott thought he was ok on off-going, I'd go along. Jim and I went down to the rail and stood right in front of the gate as they burst out, and were waiting for them as they charged home. I knew right away I'd made a good choice as I could see them run up the turn and down the backstretch the red saddle cloth of #1 was tracking comfortably in third. As the field moved into the stretch jockey Joel Rosario edged Triple Threat off the rail and into the clear to challenge......
He ran very well, and it was a "good bet" but he could never get by the two in front of him and he was a solid third at a good price. But still, we were without a winner on the day. Just like the two races following the Grade 3 Bold Venture, the bridge races to the final two big graded stakes were maiden, main track sprints. In the seventh it looked to me like #10 Wall Street Wolf would be a handy winner IF he ran back to his debut last May when he set a strong pace call and while he was caught, he was eleven clear of the show runner that day. I thought you could toss the turf try off the layoff last out and he was now in a new barn that put him where he belonged in a sprint on the main track. He was bet down to 6/5 favoritism, and by the time the first quarter had been run he was on a daylight lead. He stayed there into the lane. Just like Smart Spree in the second, my pick is in front in mid-stretch.........and just like that one I could not hold on as 'Wolf faded to third. In the eighth I liked longshot American Feminism who was moving from a two-turn turf route to a one-turn seven furlong dash and dropping from MSW to a maiden claimer. I had high hopes when she rallied boldly on the turn to challenge at 11/1......but then evenly to the wire, fifth.
The ninth was the Grade 2 Canadian for older fillies and mares on the turf and it was a "Breeders' Cup Win & You're In" race with an automatic berth in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. As I looked over the field initially the first thing that struck me was that all them main contenders seemed to be nearly even, according to the Beyer scale of speed and class ratings:
Down to the 16th pole she continued to hold a narrow edge, but in the final 100 yards Strut The Course came up the inside and Habibi came up the rail past her......third, again. I really, REALLY thought as I watched the race that we had this one. Ok, it all comes down to the featured Grade 1, $1 Million Ricoh Woodbine Mile. I had originally thought that this race would, without any question, be my BET of the Day as two-time Woodbine Mile champion, two-time Breeders' Cup Mile Champion, and two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan had targeted this for his 2015 comeback. His blazing bullet work in :58 and change a week ago had him sitting on a HUGE effort I thought. But then this past Monday after a routine morning gallop they'd found he had a slight tear in a ligament and he was retired. Now, as I wrote in my analysis, this was a wide-open race. And the closer I looked at it you could make a case NINE of the eleven runners. If any of them ran their race it would be no surprise whatsoever to see them in the winner's circle. So the question for all handicappers was which of those contenders did I think was most likely to run his race? With the off-going two of the nine scratched - Za Approval who NEVER runs on off going and Grand Arch, who I thought was the most likely alternative to my top pick exiting a win in the Grade 2 Fourstardave from which the runner-up, Ironicus, had come back to win with authority in a graded stakes at Saratoga. Reporting Star had won the prep for this, the Grade 2 Play the King at seven furlongs, but at 15/1 odds. But that had been his first win since an allowance score in July of 2014; Kaigun.....had finished third to Reporting Star, but in November he won the Grade 2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar and he'd been my pick in this race last year when second, beaten only a half length with a very troubled trip. He had validated that with a 4th to Wise Dan, beaten only two lengths. Tower of Texas had been second, beaten a nose in the Play The King and had won the King Edward this past June, a Grade 2 at today's mile distance, HERE. He was third off the shelf and could be ready for a big run. In North American turf events I like to look to Euro imports, especially here at Woodbine (and at Arlington). Mr. Owen and Mondialiste were the two today. What I did not like was that neither had brought their Euro rider. What I did like was that both were coming off a win and both would probably enjoy the give in the ground. Then there were the two favorites. Lea had been a turf horse and run third to Wise Dan before moving to Bill Mott's barn and he put him on the dirt. He won the Grade 3 Hal's Hope at Gulfstream (as my pick) and then won the Grade 1 Donn, both in 2014 and seemed destined to be a top older handicap horse on the dirt. But he was sick and didn't run again until this past winter in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope, where he won again (as my pick again). I thought he had excuses in his next three....in the Donn he was second chasing loose-on-the-lead and Horse-for-the-Course Constitution; in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup he was an excellent third; in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster he was second, beaten a diminishing neck when again chasing a loose on the lead winner. But in the Grade 1 Whitney last out he was 6th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. So now Mott moves him back to the turf, to "see if he fits?" I didn't like this "experiment" mentality, and even more so I didn't like that if you'd asked Mott in July where he thought Lea would be in September he would have said he was pointing for the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and then would move to the Breeders' Cup Classic with no fear of taking on American Pharoah. I thought his chances, much like the two Euros, were pure guess-work as to how he'd run today. And that brings us to my pick, Obviously. I've won many races with this guy, and if you toss the two Breeders' Cup Mile races where he ran insanely fast on the front end before being nailed late, he was a multiple Grade 1 winner who was a "need to lead" type. I liked that he drew the rail, and there would be no guessing how he'd run. Better yet no one, and I mean NO ONE else would be on the front. Seems "obvious" (ho ho ho) right? Well, here's the issue. Obviously had not run since last November in the Breeders' Cup. Could he come off THAT long of a layoff to wire a $1 Million race? And what about the give in the ground? He's typically always run on the ultra-firm So Cal turf courses. That's what the "leap of faith" on him would require. But my reasoning was this - in spite of the layoff and ground, he was, without question, THE LONE SPEED, and WOULD be on an easy lead. So to me, that fit my criteria of - if you have to take a leap of faith - who had the best chance of running their race. As they went into the gate I told Jim that Obviously typically runs a :45 half mile and if he ran :46 for the half mile, we were home free.
The gates opened and he was a step slow, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he "broke slowly. Within one hundred yards he was not only on the lead, but in front by daylight and was not even running hard. As they hit the top of the stretch Reporting Star was the only one within half a dozen lengths and still jockey Joe Talamo had yet to ask for Obviously's best run. I glanced at the jumbotron and the half mile split was an average :46.3! I thought, "even if the turf is soft and not to his liking, he's gone so much slower than he's used to AND the closers will have to fight the give in the ground to catch him." Inside the furlong marker Reporting Star had gotten within a length but I didn't think he'd run him down. But in the final two hundred yards Obviously could just not last as Lea surged but then Mondaliste, the French import split horses to win. Obviously held third. Sigh...... with my pick in the 11th scratched, and in the 12th it was off the turf, down to four horses, and my pick (for the turf) was out we left Woodbine. As I had noticed throughout the day I wasn't the only handicapper having a difficult time finding a winner. Check out my picks compared to those of three Daily Racing Form experts:
Jim and I agreed as we sat through a L-O-N-G wait for dinner at the restaurant, that it had been a great day at the races; it had been an excellent adventure/trip; everything, with the exception of cashing tickets had been as good or better than expected. I have had trips like this before where I have come away with the same attitude. I always enjoy a day at the races, regardless of the outcome. I enjoy an adventure to a new track even more, regardless of the outcome of the picks. I thought about how my first trip to Saratoga and my day there on Travers Day two years ago had both resulted in winless efforts, but how I still recalled those adventures as excellent trips. So it would be for today.
1-Personal Diary 90 / 2-Button Down 88 / 3-Hoop of Coulour 91 / 4-Strut The Course 92 / 7-Uchenna 93 / 9-Habbi 90 / 11-Overheard 90
So for me I thought the main question was which of these evenly matched turf runners were the best fit for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup event? Three of these had earned graded stakes wins locally - Uchenna, Strut The Course, and Overheard. But the other two had earned their figures and graded wins at arguably a "major track" venue. Personal Diary had won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in August a year ago and Hoop of Colour had earned hers in the Grade 2 Santa Ana, also at Del Mar. Adding to her appeal was that she was lightly raced and a Euro import. She'd won two of four in her European efforts, including a stakes, then had won BOTH North American starts. She seemed to have a lot of upside, the class, and the speed figure. She was my top choice. She was perfectly placed into the far turn, third tracking the leaders. She accelerated out of the turn, split horses and was IN FRONT at the furlong pole! Down to the 16th pole she continued to hold a narrow edge, but in the final 100 yards Strut The Course came up the inside and Habibi came up the rail past her......third, again. I really, REALLY thought as I watched the race that we had this one. Ok, it all comes down to the featured Grade 1, $1 Million Ricoh Woodbine Mile. I had originally thought that this race would, without any question, be my BET of the Day as two-time Woodbine Mile champion, two-time Breeders' Cup Mile Champion, and two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan had targeted this for his 2015 comeback. His blazing bullet work in :58 and change a week ago had him sitting on a HUGE effort I thought. But then this past Monday after a routine morning gallop they'd found he had a slight tear in a ligament and he was retired. Now, as I wrote in my analysis, this was a wide-open race. And the closer I looked at it you could make a case NINE of the eleven runners. If any of them ran their race it would be no surprise whatsoever to see them in the winner's circle. So the question for all handicappers was which of those contenders did I think was most likely to run his race? With the off-going two of the nine scratched - Za Approval who NEVER runs on off going and Grand Arch, who I thought was the most likely alternative to my top pick exiting a win in the Grade 2 Fourstardave from which the runner-up, Ironicus, had come back to win with authority in a graded stakes at Saratoga. Reporting Star had won the prep for this, the Grade 2 Play the King at seven furlongs, but at 15/1 odds. But that had been his first win since an allowance score in July of 2014; Kaigun.....had finished third to Reporting Star, but in November he won the Grade 2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar and he'd been my pick in this race last year when second, beaten only a half length with a very troubled trip. He had validated that with a 4th to Wise Dan, beaten only two lengths. Tower of Texas had been second, beaten a nose in the Play The King and had won the King Edward this past June, a Grade 2 at today's mile distance, HERE. He was third off the shelf and could be ready for a big run. In North American turf events I like to look to Euro imports, especially here at Woodbine (and at Arlington). Mr. Owen and Mondialiste were the two today. What I did not like was that neither had brought their Euro rider. What I did like was that both were coming off a win and both would probably enjoy the give in the ground. Then there were the two favorites. Lea had been a turf horse and run third to Wise Dan before moving to Bill Mott's barn and he put him on the dirt. He won the Grade 3 Hal's Hope at Gulfstream (as my pick) and then won the Grade 1 Donn, both in 2014 and seemed destined to be a top older handicap horse on the dirt. But he was sick and didn't run again until this past winter in the Grade 3 Hal's Hope, where he won again (as my pick again). I thought he had excuses in his next three....in the Donn he was second chasing loose-on-the-lead and Horse-for-the-Course Constitution; in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup he was an excellent third; in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster he was second, beaten a diminishing neck when again chasing a loose on the lead winner. But in the Grade 1 Whitney last out he was 6th beaten nearly a dozen lengths. So now Mott moves him back to the turf, to "see if he fits?" I didn't like this "experiment" mentality, and even more so I didn't like that if you'd asked Mott in July where he thought Lea would be in September he would have said he was pointing for the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and then would move to the Breeders' Cup Classic with no fear of taking on American Pharoah. I thought his chances, much like the two Euros, were pure guess-work as to how he'd run today. And that brings us to my pick, Obviously. I've won many races with this guy, and if you toss the two Breeders' Cup Mile races where he ran insanely fast on the front end before being nailed late, he was a multiple Grade 1 winner who was a "need to lead" type. I liked that he drew the rail, and there would be no guessing how he'd run. Better yet no one, and I mean NO ONE else would be on the front. Seems "obvious" (ho ho ho) right? Well, here's the issue. Obviously had not run since last November in the Breeders' Cup. Could he come off THAT long of a layoff to wire a $1 Million race? And what about the give in the ground? He's typically always run on the ultra-firm So Cal turf courses. That's what the "leap of faith" on him would require. But my reasoning was this - in spite of the layoff and ground, he was, without question, THE LONE SPEED, and WOULD be on an easy lead. So to me, that fit my criteria of - if you have to take a leap of faith - who had the best chance of running their race. As they went into the gate I told Jim that Obviously typically runs a :45 half mile and if he ran :46 for the half mile, we were home free.
The gates opened and he was a step slow, but I wouldn't go so far as to say he "broke slowly. Within one hundred yards he was not only on the lead, but in front by daylight and was not even running hard. As they hit the top of the stretch Reporting Star was the only one within half a dozen lengths and still jockey Joe Talamo had yet to ask for Obviously's best run. I glanced at the jumbotron and the half mile split was an average :46.3! I thought, "even if the turf is soft and not to his liking, he's gone so much slower than he's used to AND the closers will have to fight the give in the ground to catch him." Inside the furlong marker Reporting Star had gotten within a length but I didn't think he'd run him down. But in the final two hundred yards Obviously could just not last as Lea surged but then Mondaliste, the French import split horses to win. Obviously held third. Sigh...... with my pick in the 11th scratched, and in the 12th it was off the turf, down to four horses, and my pick (for the turf) was out we left Woodbine. As I had noticed throughout the day I wasn't the only handicapper having a difficult time finding a winner. Check out my picks compared to those of three Daily Racing Form experts:
Jim and I agreed as we sat through a L-O-N-G wait for dinner at the restaurant, that it had been a great day at the races; it had been an excellent adventure/trip; everything, with the exception of cashing tickets had been as good or better than expected. I have had trips like this before where I have come away with the same attitude. I always enjoy a day at the races, regardless of the outcome. I enjoy an adventure to a new track even more, regardless of the outcome of the picks. I thought about how my first trip to Saratoga and my day there on Travers Day two years ago had both resulted in winless efforts, but how I still recalled those adventures as excellent trips. So it would be for today.
Woodbine Mile Day Video Recap
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