October 18

Sunday October 18: Pattison Canadian International Day

 

Today marked the end of my daily handicapping project at Woodbine. The theme of this racing project has been, as the title says, "Road To The Breeders' Cup 2015," and that event will be in less than two weeks. I decided that since we will be at sea in the week between today's highlight event at Woodbine and the Breeders' Cup I would take a break and focus on first the trip and then the Breeders' Cup. I have to say I've really enjoyed the daily handicapping at Woodbine and I'm sure when I add up the final numbers I'll see it was a pretty successful handicapping project. I still find it ironic that the worst day of the project came on the ONLY day I was physically there to bet the races live, Woodbine Mile Day. But today, now that's a horse of a different color. We were at sea so I struggled to see the replays, especially the two Grade 1 events, but at the end of the racing it was my MOST SUCCESSFUL day at Woodbine, and certainly the most profitable day. Let's see how it played out......

 

The first selection was in the second, a non-winners of two lifetime sprint and I thought that the entry of 1-Conspire and 1a-Azimut looked formidable which ever ran. With jockey Luis Contreras named on both I was pretty sure that only one would go. But instead they went with both by putting up another rider on the entry mate. It was that horse, 1a-Azimut who went right to the front while Conspire was way, WAY back at the rear of the field. But as they went through the far turn Azimut was beginning to give way and it was Conspire who was absolutely dominant as he blew by up the rail. It was unfortunate that (a) they were pounded at the windows to 2/5 odds and (b) I'd only invested the minimum so the $2.80 payoff netted me only $7.00. In the fourth, it was the first of four graded events on the card, the Grade 2 Nearctic. They were sprinting six furlongs on the turf course and this race has often produced runners going on to the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. When that event is in California the six furlong distance is a plus (most turf sprints are five or five and a half), but it is on the flat course here while Santa Anita's turf sprint course is down the hillside. In years where it is NOT at Santa Anita it is a good prep as at all other venues the BC Turf Sprint is 5 1/2 furlongs. Today I thought it was a wide open event and I went with the European Terror. He was 5/1 when the gates opened. He was gaining on the leaders through the long stretch and though I knew he didn't win, finishing fifth, it was a five-horse blanket finish, so it was a good effort. In the fifth, a non-winners of two lifetime allowance for juveniles I backed the second choice, Ultra Flame at 9/5. He was way, WAY back and made up a lot of ground to catch the favorite at the top of the stretch, but that one had more left and edged clear in the final 200 yards - second for me. The sixth kicked off a three-race sequence of graded events and it started with the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion for three-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track. My pick was Cactus Kris. When I handicapped this Sunday card there were no odds available (the usually way out of whack DRF morning line continued to produce a "ERROR" message online). I thought Cactus Kris would not be a favorite, but would be one of the top three or four in the program. So I was REALLY surprised when I got the program odds Friday before we left for Boston and he was listed at a huge 15/1. I stuck with him as he was coming off a good second in a stakes at Presque Isle over their main, synthetic surface. I liked that he was a closer in a field that seemed LOADED with speed. Sure enough, he was well back into the far turn, but he was flying as heads turned for home, but seemed to have too much to do even at the 16th pole. But with a burst of acceleration she was JUST up in time to win! (photo upper left - #9)  Oh how I wish I could have gotten those 15/1 odds! But the 5/1 final odds were generous, with a payout of $12.20. Again I wished I'd had more money on that the minimum but I was still rewarded with a $30 and change return on my investment. The 7th was another non-winners of two lifetime claiming sprint and I favored Holy McNasty. This guy looked, on paper, to be an obvious "play against." He'd just lost at this level AND lost ground through the stretch in that race. But he was claimed off that effort and today top rider Eurico DaSilva took over. I thought he'd have a chance to shake loose on the lead. DaSilva took him right to the front and never looked back! The best part, another nice price as he paid $8.50 and I cashed for over $21!

 

The 8th was the first of the co-featured Grade 1 events, the E.P. Taylor Stakes going the classic 1 1/4 miles on the turf course. So they'd start on the clubhouse turn, run up the hill to the enormous backstretch, then run downhill into the lane. I thought that Euro invader Curvy was sitting on a HUGE effort. She was a multiple Group winner in Europe and had bee my top choice in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl last time out. The crowd had made her the 3/2 favorite that day but she was pinched early and was very wide. Top Euro jockey Ryan Moore was here for the mount and I thought would make a huge difference. She was the favorite, but a very tepid one at a nice 2/1 price. As they hit the far turn Moore had her well back, but began to ask for run. Still, the field was bunched with at least ten horses in front. But Moore showed why he's the best in Europe and one of the very best in the world. He could see a path through the field and instead of wasting valuable lengths by circling the field he accelerated straight ahead. The field opened up like the parting of the Red Sea and at the 16th pole he was in front with all the momentum! The late runners were coming but were far too late to catch Curvy. She paid a very big $6.90 and as my "BET of the DAY" I cashed for almost $70! WHOOOO HOOOOO!

 

In the Grade 1 Canadian I wrote that I thought Moore had an excellent chance to sweep the major features. He was Cannock Chase who was 7/2 - the third choice in the program. By post time he too, like Curvy, was the favorite, but a tepid one at 5/2. He rated along in mid-pack and was actually 10th of eleven at the one mile call (going 1 1/2 miles). But he began to rally through the far turn, got to the front at the 16th pole and was clear by daylight under the wire! I'd doubled the bet on this selection so the $7.50 payout on the board meant I'd collect nearly $40.

 

In the last race I tripled the bet on Boldnpossible in a MSW sprint. In his debut he'd been my upset choice but was clearly second best behind an odds-on winner. I thought he laid over this field. But unlike last time where he was on the lead, today he was well back. His rally was too little, too late at 2/1 odds, my second runner-up finish of the day. But what a day it was! I had eight selections on my sheet and FIVE of them were highlighted as winners! I'd cashed for a gross return of $165 and change, generating a profit of nearly $100 on the day. Far and away the best single day at Woodbine of the entire project! On to the Breeders' Cup!

October 16 - 17

We're Off To Boston To Start Our Cruise!

Friday afternoon we flew out of Ft. Lauderdale International bound for Boston and a weekend stay there before boarding the Brilliance of the Seas for a week-long cruise northward through New England and into Canada to see the Fall Leaves.  It's a trip we've talked about for a L-O-N-G time and finally we are taking it.  I was able to complete handicapping for the entire weekend on Thursday, including Canadian Pattison Day on Sunday.  So before Kim came home Friday I made my picks online for Friday's card.  Our flights were smooth and on time if not a little early.  We landed in Boston by 7:30 pm and were at the hotel by 8:30 pm.  Checked in immediately and then had dinner at the hotel.  We returned to our room I watched the replays - and nothing.  I was 4th at 8/5 in the first bet, third at even money in the fourth.  Way too far back in the fifth, finish 6th at 9/5.  Led into the lane in the 6th at 2/1, faded to fourth; and in my last bet I led into the stretch at 3/1, wilted to be third on the wire.  Two of my "other choices" won races.  Oh well, turn the page to Saturday........

 

We were downstairs around 8:15 and our trolley took us downtown to Boston where we boarded a Gray Line all-day tour bus.  The day was great on the whole.  The fall leaves were in full Technicolor and the temperatures never left the low fifties.  Loved it.  The only snag on the day was, as you can see above, about two hours into the day our bus broke down and we were stranded for an hour and a half.  Finally got back under way - have to mention how cool it was that everyone on the bus was of the "things happen" attitude and everyone was very positive and happy.  Saw all the cool things of the area and were delighted with the day.  The only thing we'd have changed was the last hour of the bus ride we rode around the block, literally down one street and back up the other, through traffic just so we could ride by the shopping area and then cross the finish line of the Boston Marathon.  Could have done without that.  We had eaten on the tour so once we were back in the room I watched the replays.  In the 2nd Karibu Gardens was the 7/5 favorite.  He tracked the leader, moved in tandem with the second choice at the head of the lane and dueled the length of the stretch.....PHOTO FINISH, but I knew I was second.  In the fourth Rocco Point went right to the front out of the gate and literally was dueling from the first stride to inside the furlong marker where he weakened to be third at 9/5.  In the fifth I scored with Flirtin for Certin.  Right to the front at 3/5 and I was thinking, WHY!  Why are my riders going to the front when nearly every day front runners are gobbled up through the length of the long Woodbine stretch.  But this time Flirtin for Certin was clearly best. 

 

I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for over $15.  Though I knew it was unlikely to make a profit on the day, the day would be a success for me if I had the winner in the featured Ruling Angle Stakes.  Southern Ring had debuted with a huge 95 Beyer and the horse that exited that race confirmed the number when she won the Etobicoke Stakes.  Southern Ring ran away with her maiden last time out as my best of the day.  Today I thought in spite of facing first time winners, AND in a stakes race she would be best.  She pressed a scorching pace of :22 flat, :44.2, and 1:09.2 going 6 1/2 furlongs.  She caught the leader at the furlong pole and edged clear by daylight under a vigorous hand ride!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

 

My prime time investment netted over $30.  For the day I was two-for-four, I'll take it.  I'll make my bets for Pattison Invitational Day tomorrow before we head out for the cruise ship and watch the replays once we are underway.  Even though I have booked the Internet for the cruise I'll be taking the week off from handicapping and point towards the Breeders' Cup the following weekend!

October 14

A SURPRISING WINNING NIGHT!

Day 45

It's Pattison International Week, one of the key weekends of the Woodbine meeting, and it's also the week that Kim and I head out for a cruise to see the fall leaves in the Northeast.  The week also saw us purchase a new living room set - finally! - yesterday, and it was delivered late this evening.  But the racing provided a very interesting story line.  I cannot tell you that I was surprised I had a winning night, I really was pretty certain I'd win for the evening.  But what was VERY surprising was how I won for the night.  One reason I felt pretty confident about the racing this evening was I was confident that I'd been very selective and had avoided races where it looked to be a "go figure" result.  One of the FOUR races I passed on produced a $30 winner while two of them saw the short priced favorite score (one as my top pick) - but in neither case would I ever have put money on them.  In the opener, a non-winners of two lifetime, it appeared to me that Conquest Kronos was a legitimate favorite.  He was dropping from a $40K 2L spot into this $20K 2L race and the competition was weak.  He was very wide from the very start, through the turn, and down the stretch and never made a solid run, third at even money.  In the second, when I first looked over the race it appeared to me that there were several who wanted to be on the lead, or at the very worst pushing the early lead.  Since speed rarely carries here in Toronto I looked for a strong finisher.  I couldn't really find one, and as I re-examined the field one final time I was left with a Woodbine 40% Club play on one of the front-runners - that would be Flashy Margaritta for trainer Ralph Biamonte.  He is a club member with a single angle, when he saddles a horse owned in partnership between Danny Lococo and Mary Biamonte - the trainer's wife (you better believe he wants to win with those!).  I liked the fact that this four-year-old gelding had a relatively inside draw AND got top jockey Eurica Rosa DaSilva.  As I wrote in my analysis, maybe, just maybe he clears the field and goes wire to wire.  Sure enough, when the gates sprung open DaSilva immediately had this one in front by open lengths.  When the pressers tried to make up ground heading into the far turn he let it out a notch.  I felt good as they ran through the turn because everyone else was really being asked for their best but DaSilva was still riding confidently with just mild urging.  He never even had to raise his stick and Flashy Margaritta was LONG GONE. 

 

The best part was, she'd gone off at a big 9/2 mutual and paid over $11!  I was collecting nearly $30 to start the night off!  I passed the third.  The fourth was a maiden claiming event going the extended mile and an eighth distance.  My pick was Knutsford Park.  What landed me here was that there did not seem to be an confirmed front runner and Knutsford Park was stretching out from a sprint to a route.  Trainer Laurie Silvera showed a whopping $26% win rate with stretch-out runners at an even bigger $5.60 ROI for ever $2 bet.  I also liked the 4/1 program odds so I doubled the bet.  As they came out of the gate through the opening 16th Knutsford Park seemed a big eager, but the rider held him strongly and had him settle.  But the time they had straightened out down the back stretch he was in mid-pack.  Ok, I thought, trying to conserve energy for the long trip.  But when the opening quarter mile was posted in a pokey :25 and change and then the half mile in a pedestrian :50 and change while I was still near the back I knew I was in trouble, even if he did have a big kick.  As the field spun out of the turn he was beginning to move, but still near the back......they hit the furlong marker and Knutsford Park had found what seemed like his best stride, but the early leaders were still battling on the front end and the favorite was the only one making up ground.  But inside the 16th pole it was like my choice had found a whole new passing gear and he accelerated right by the top three and was actually clear well before the finish line!  The crowd had let Knutsford Park go off at 3/1 odds so the big $8.70 mutual led me to a winning payoff of over $40! 

I am guaranteed to have a winning night and the horse I was certain would carry me to a winning night had yet to run!  That best bet was in the finale and I thought it was a great story that I was anxious to describe.  This maiden claiming event going nine furlongs for bottom level claimers was a slow group of runners.  BUT, as I wrote, one of the great things about handicapping racing is that it's all about the mix of runners and a horse can hold a significant advantage as easily in a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup event as in an $8K maiden claimer on a Wednesday night from Woodbine.  Such was the case of Hey Big Man.  The other seven rivals' trainers were a combined 8-for-298 at the meet while Hey Big Man's trainer Danny Vella had EIGHTEEN wins.  'Big Man's last race figure of 60 was over 20 points higher than any of the last race figures of his rivals.  He looked like a slam dunk and as I watched the pre-race analysis EVERY public handicapper had him on top.  I thought the 1/2 odds he left the gate with were more than fair.  He was keen to run and the rider finally let him go approaching the far turn.  He went from third to in front by daylight without being asked and as they turned for home the rider was handling him very confidently and had yet to ask.  But I could see the second choice swiftly passing horses with all the momentum.  My jockey was oblivious and by the time he realized someone was coming with a full head of steam it was too late.  The upset was on as Hey Big Man could not get into gear quickly enough and had lost.  Poor riding can screw up even the best of selections.  But that's the great thing about this game.....but two nice-priced wins earlier in the evening STILL provided me with one of my biggest margins of profit in the last couple of weeks!  You just gotta love the track!

 

October 12

WIN To Start - Finish With Run Of Seconds

After having a solid week of handicapping I thought I was off to another good day when Mauna Kea went last-to-first in the opener and I cashed for over $15.  But the rest of the day saw my picks run second three different times at short odds, fair odds, and price play odds.  To be fair, in the first two runner-up finishes I was going for a price instead of backing the obvious favorite - who won both races at odds of 3/5 in both cases.  Right back at it day after tomorrow for Wednesday twilight racing, and the weekend highlight will be Canadian Pattison Day on Sunday ..... when we are leaving for our cruise out of Boston!

 

October 11

ANOTHER Late Run Of Winners!

This must be the "new formula" for my winning selections at Woodbine - pick some races early and be disappointed, then finish with a flourish to get a good winning percentage and a profit on the day!  I've found that typically on the Friday and Sunday card the level of racing is below that of Saturday and so I usually have far fewer bets.  But today I had six picks on the ten race card, two of which were Woodbine 40% Club plays.  In the second I thought that Danger Bay would be a prohibitive favorite to go wire-to-wire again as he'd just beat many of these.  But (a) front runners just don't win often, and (b) why was he dropping from a win for $25K into this $16K spot.  Just smelled fishy to me.  I went with the horse that chased him last time and seemed to be improving.  Blinks Forest was 7/1 at post time and was right on Danger Bay's hip as they hit the far turn.  Then Danger Bay let out another gear and cruised home by multiple lengths while Blinks Forest faded badly to be fifth.  In the fourth Tell Me Why was sent out by Malcolm Pierce with Eurico Rosa DaSilva.  All kinds of 30% win angles in play for this turf route led me to the pick.  He was 3/1 at post time and was mid-pack to the far turn.  He finished third, but there was never, ever a moment where I thought he had a chance to win.  I passed the fifth and then had four selections in a row to close the card down.  In the 6th, the Bundy Lawless Born In A Breeze was the 9/5 favorite based on back-to-back turf wins; both at this one mile trip and the most recent a stakes like this one.  As they hit the far turn I thought he was way too far back.  As heads turned for home he was running three times as fast as everyone else, but had been left with way too much work to do as he ran out of ground when closing like a freight train and a narrowly beaten third on the wire.  The seventh was a claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The likely favorite was 7-year-old Urban Forester who was a TEN time winner here.  But his most recent numbers said he wasn't the same kind of horse and might be a good one to go against and get a fair price.  I went with Sea of Silence who had dropped into a $10K three lifetime event and won for fun last time out.  Today he was in for a cheaper price tag, but facing open runners.  I liked that top jockey DaSilva was up to replace Luis Contreras who abandoned Sea of Silence for Urban Forester.  The crowd bet that one to 6/5 favoritism and let my pick go off at 5/1.  He split horses at the top of the stretch and forged to the front.  Inside the sixteenth pole he was desperate to find the wire as Urban Forester was flying.... too late, I WIN! 

 

The payoff of $7.10 let me cash for nearly $20 on my first win of the day.  The eighth was the featured Cup and Saucer Stakes for two-year-olds.  It was interesting to me, and I would love to know the explanation, that Mark Casse had an uncoupled entry.  Not so much that, but they were both owned by the same owner - Conquest Stables.  How can the same trainer enter two horses for the SAME owner and it's not a coupled entry?  No matter, it allowed the crowd to pick and THEY PICKED WRONG!  I liked Conquest Enforcer and he qualified as a Woodbine 40% Club play.  He had debuted in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes and was bet down to 7/2!  Somebody thought he had talent.  He finished fourth.  Today he was in listed company, and because he was still a maiden I thought he'd be a fair price.  He was at better than 3/1.  Through the far turn he was near the back, but jockey Patrick Husbands had lots of horse....no where to run.  They turned for home, still nowhere....at the furlong pole....STILL nowhere.  Then just before the 16th pole a seam.  Husbands said "GO" and Enforcer exploded impressively to draw off by daylight as he widened his winning margin with every stride! 

 

The $8.60 payoff meant I'd cash for over 20 beans!  TWO in a row!  The 9th, and my final bet of the day, was a Maiden Special for older going two turns on the main track.  Rebel With a Chance was listed at 5/2 and had been second in SEVEN of her nine starts.  An obvious play against!  UNLESS you had printed a copy of the Woodbine Handicapper authored by Jim Mazur.  In there you would see that trainer Laurie Silvera is a Woodbine 40% Club member with horses going turf to synthetic.  Last time out when Rebel finished second, again, Silvera had sent this one to the grass.  So the move back to the main track made this a big-time club play.  I figured even if he was bet to favoritism, he would not be a short price due to all those seconds.  Sure enough he was a more-than-fair 9/5 as they left the gate.  As they turned for home he hit high gear and blew by, then as announcer Robert Geller said, "...it's an absolute drubbing; one of the biggest wins of the entire meet!"  And I had him!  The $5.60 payoff meant I would cash for nearly $30 and finish the day 3-for-6 with a profit of nearly $25!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!  AND, because tomorrow is Columbus Day there will be racing again tomorrow afternoon!

 

 

October 10

BET of the Day Lifts Me To WINNING Day!

It was an unusual Saturday for me.  Even during college football season I typically have several tracks and several races that I'm interested in.  But today there were only two graded stakes on the national calendar - one at Keeneland and one at Belmont - and I just wasn't interested enough in either to handicap the full card of races at those tracks to play a stakes event that I didn't have a firm opinion in.  In addition, tonight was Opening Night for our Florida Panthers NHL hockey season, so I knew going in that I would not be going to the races.  I was content to simply handicap the Woodbine races and play those like I do on any normal weekday racing day.  After I'd handicapped the card on Friday morning I had seven picks from the ten race card - unusual in that I have found through this project that my best success seems to be when I'm selective about betting only when I have a firm opinion, not just an opinion on the winner.  When Saturday morning rolled around I decided to take a look again at the two stakes events, maybe I DID like someone enough to play.  At Keeneland in the Grade 1 QE II on the turf for three-year-old fillies everyone liked the Pletcher filly who had won decisively in her last two, both at Saratoga.  I'd bet against her and I just wasn't sold on her.  Maybe I was wrong?  And at Belmont it was the Grade 3 Noble Damsel with two likely favorites, neither of which inspired me.  When I looked at Dave Liftin's analysis it confirmed to me that I did NOT have a strong opinion and I was certain I wanted no part of that action.  The Keeneland race kept swirling around in my head, and by mid-afternoon I thought I'd play.  I was watching college football and opened my Twinspires account on my phone; logged in, went to Keeneland's card, went to the wagering page..... and then I just had this nagging feeling that this was a mistake.  Looked at the choices and then said, "no, not doing it."  So all I had were the seven Woodbine picks.  In the second, a MSW for two-year-old colts it looked really REALLY hard to go past Majest Slew who had been third in the Swynford Stakes behind Riker, who had come back to win the Grade 3 Grey Stakes last weekends.  He had two seconds and a third with speed figures that put him clearly in front of the rest of the field.  He was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and tracked the pace through the far turn, accelerated through the lane to the leader at the furlong pole and couldn't get by....second best.  In the third we were off the turf again - I don't know why this surprised me after we'd been off the turf yesterday, but it never occurred to me.  I stuck with Eminent Force who was first off the claim for trainer Michael DePaulo, making him a Woodbine 40% Club play.  He was a big 5/1 and made a huge move on the turn.....then flattened out and was a well-beaten fifth.  Passed both the fourth and the fifth, so I went back to the big screen television to watch college football.  I came back in time for the sixth in time to watch Awesome Dove - my top pick for the turf - leave the gate as the 8/5 favorite despite being a first time starter for Malcolm Pierce and top jockey Eurico DaSilva.  As the field turned for home he was stuck behind a wall of horses and it was obvious to me that an attempt to swing wide would be to take him at least six wide, losing any chance at victory.  But a seam opened up on the rail and DaSilva pushed him to go.  You could just see by the horse's body language, he wanted no part of skimming the rail in tight quarters and he just ran evenly to the wire, 5th.  I went back to college football.  I returned with minutes to go before the featured Victorian Queen Stakes in the 8th so I opened up the replays and watched my pick in the seventh, RU Watchingbud stalk the leaders into the turn at 9/2 and stop like he was shot, 8th.  This is NOT a very good day as I'm now 0-for-4!  I flipped back to the live streaming broadcast from Woodbine for the two-year-old feature event.  Typically when I bet online - and I freely admit there is no rhyme or reason for this - but I am very hesitant to bet "all in" no matter how much I really like a runner.  At the track I'll open up the bankroll if I'm confident, but online, I just am reluctant to do so.  But when I looked at the field for the Victorian Queen I KNEW that this would be an exception.  I'd seen Caren run before as she swept to three consecutive wins, two of them stakes with my money on her.  And then when Jim Anderson and I were on track at Woodbine on the day before Woodbine Mile Day we'd seen the Grade 2 Natalma run live and I recognized her name.  She was a sharp third that day.  The drop back into a listed stakes, and a return to a main-track sprint was right in her wheel-house.  An added incentive was that the runner-up in the Natalma was Gamble's Ghost who was ULTRA impressive last Saturday in winning the Grade 3 Mazarine as my bet of the day.  Any concern about Caren turning back in distance was wiped out by her best-of-22 bullet move after the turf try which was followed by a near bullet just a week ago.  She was being heavily bet as they approached the gate, but I was delighted when she slipped up to 1/2 at post time.  Right out of the gate you could see she was eager to go, but the rider let her settle just outside a price play longshot.  He held her into the far turn and then let her run.  Se quickly opened up by daylight and looked long gone.  The early pace fractions had been fast so the closers were making up ground through the lane, but they were simply not in the same class as Caren!  WINNER! 

 

I had opened up my "virtual wallet" and gone a US Grant to win, so I was going to collect nearly $80 for my winning selection!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  Before we left for the hockey game I was able to watch the running of my final two selections - in the 9th Breaking Ball was my upset pick at 8/1 in the program to win a nw2x sprint on the main.  Led into the lane - that nearly never works out - before giving way grudgingly to be fourth at 5/1.  In the finale the only thing I did NOT like about Trini Lime was that he was stuck with post 13.  The only other time he'd run for a maiden claiming tag he was in front for a $50K price tag - he'd most recently been bumped back into MSW company and tried the turf.  Today he dropped back in for a tag, and a much lower $16K price, and returned to sprinting on the maide track.  I thought this combination of angles with the outside draw set him up for a great stalking trip - the prototype of how to win at Woodbine.  The crowd let him go at 3/1 - oh how I wish I'd doubled the bet!  He pressed the pace, dueled through the turn, edged to the front and opened up.  The pace had taken something out of him, but he had enough to hold on for my second win of the afternoon! 

 

Trini Lime paid $8.60 to win so I collected over $20 and I was 2-for-7 with another winning day.  Oh - how about those stakes races?  As I was waiting for the finale at Woodbine I pulled up the Belmont race and watched a $10 winner go by BOTH the favorites, neither of which I liked - smart move to pass that one.  And as I flipped over to the Keeneland channel it was just about to go official and the winner had gone off at 19/1, paying $40.  The filly everyone liked, that I almost bet on.....3/5 and fourth!  Another smart move.  We headed out to the Panthers game and we left a little early because it was Opening Night.  Normally we leave about 25 minutes before the start and we are sitting in our seats with ten minutes or more to wait.  This evening we left 45 minutes early and waited in traffic.  But most surprising was when we showed our parking pass cars were parked nearly all the way to the entrance, we've got ourselves a FULL HOUSE!  Sure enough the announce 19,000 sell-out crowd was ready for some hockey, South Florida style.  Hopes are high that we can make the playoffs this year, but to do so the consensus seems to be we need:  (1) a good year by 47-year-old superstar Jamir Jagar; (2) another All-Star year from goalie Roberto Luongo; (3) more scoring in general; and specifically (4) our power play HAS to be better.  The game starts, the crowd roars and before we are 90 seconds into the game WE SCORE!  A minute later we are on the power play and immediately bury the puck!  2-0 - this is awesome!  Inside of four more minutes we've scored again even strength and added ANOTHER power play goal to take a 4-0 lead and chased Philadelphia's goalie!  I read later that it was the fastest four goals to open a game in NHL history.  But it was far from over as we poured it on by pounding the Flyers 7-1, and we also pounded them in a couple of good fights.  What a great Saturday it turned out to be!

 

October 9

Off The Turf - BIG WIN Saves The Day

Day 41

I was surprised when I got online to watch the races today to discover we were off the turf in Toronto.  But, ironically today was one of the very few days that the entries had offered a "Main Track Only" in a race that I liked AND that I liked that runner.  But let's back up to run through the day's selections........ In the opener I had settled on Inperson in a juvenile two turn MSW test.  His last two Beyer figures were at least a pole better than the remainder of the field and he just looked too good to lose.  Well, such is horse racing.  The crowd saw what I saw and bet him down to even money.  He chased my second choice into the stretch only to have an 11/1 outsider run by them both - third.  In the second, a non-winners of three lifetime event, Classic Bryce had the coveted angle for such a race - he was racing first time for a tag and in conditioned company.  He was a more-than-fair 3/1 when they left the gate.  He pressed the pace setter into the stretch and I thought he was ready to make his move, but he stopped....faded to a well-beaten sixth.  I didn't like anyone in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th.  The sixth was moved from the turf to the main track and my top selection in this juvenile MSW route race scratched.  Mark Casse had two runners entered for the Conquest Stable, making either of them a Woodbine 40% Club angle.  Conquest Dynasty was the one that ran and he set sail on the front end, leading them into the far turn at 9/2 and I thought maybe I had a big pay day coming.  But when the field hit the top of the stretch he had to response to the closers, faded to fourth.  I passed the 7th.  Finally, in my final play of the day I hit paydirt.  Dancing Ashley had been my "best" of the day in a claiming event going a mile on the outer turf course.  But with races off the grass, that left me with Aunt Els, who had been listed as a "Main Track Only" entrant.  She won with decisiveness last out - as my top choice - and I thought she'd hold a decided edge over this group of turf runners if it went to the main track.  When they left the gate she was allowed to slip by handicappers at a price of better than 2/1.  She stalked the pace to the far turn, accelerated to the lead and was clear by daylight turning for home.  The field was making up ground late, but it was too little, too late. 

 

I had stuck with my original triple investment that I'd planned on making on Dancing Ashley, so my payoff was over $45 and was good enough to carry me to a profit on the day in spite of winning one of four races!  WHOOO HOOO, you gotta love this racing game!

October 7

A Good Start To The Week!

The week's highlights began before the first race ever reached the gate.  I received an email on Monday that my Breeders' Cup Tickets were in the mail and on Tuesday I got them via certified mail.  The first day of the racing week featured the night-time racing at Woodbine with first post again at 6:45 pm.  But in reading through the racing headlines early in the week I read that the feature at Keeneland today was the final of the "Breeders' Cup Win and You're In" races, the Grade 3 Jessamine.  But when I checked out the details I saw it was a full field of FOURTEEN two-year-old fillies on the turf.  Hard enough to pick a field of fourteen, much less two-year-olds, and fillies at that with none of them with more than a couple of races under their belt.  So I decided to pass on the race and had every intention of betting just the Woodbine races.  But this morning when I was reading through the paper on the porch overlooking the pool and lake with the temps in the mid-to-upper 70s I decided to check out what the Keeneland handicappers had to say about the race.  Both Mike Battaglia and my "pal" Katie Mikolay - who I'd met at the Fair Grounds - liked Harmonize, a Bill Mott filly ..... a LOT.  I went back and watched her blowout win in the PG Johnson at Saratoga in just her second start and I was duly impressed.  I then watched the DRF "Race of the Day" video.  No surprise the guys did not like the possibility of betting Harmonize as a short priced favorite in a big field of two-year-olds.  Granted.  But so often these "experts" pick based solely on price when the obvious favorite is also the obvious winner.  The one thing that concerned me the most about Harmonize was that she'd won her maiden debut on the front end and in the big win last out she was right up front pushing the leader.  Couple this with what I've learned about the Keeneland course and this wasn't good.  According to all the numbers for the Breeders' Cup the turf is a deadly course on front runners.  Just as an example, since 2005 there have been 58 turf races for allowance or stakes runners at nine furlongs or longer and FIFTY-FIVE of those were won from off the pace.  Now consider that several of today's fillies were stretching out from sprints and it looked like a recipe for an upset with an off-the-pace runner.  But the more I looked at the comments, the more it seemed that if Harmonize could sit off the pace, just a little, she'd be much the best.  As they hit the first turn she was quickly not only near the lead, but was in fact near the back.  The pace was quick, but not so quick that I thought she'd be double-digit lengths off the lead!  As the field approached the far turn she began to quicken and as they moved through the turn she must have passed half a dozen fillies in like three jumps so that as they spun out of the turn she was in full flight for the wire, some nine-or-ten wide, but gobbling up ground with each stride.  She collared the leader at the furlong pole and the two of them went at it through the final 16th but as they approached the wire Harmonize was edging clear without being asked for her all-out best run.  She looked very impressive and with a win over the course she has to be considered a Breeders' Cup contender!  I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for $20 to kick off the week!  Later in the evening I went to the Woodbine replays to check out how my picks had done.  In the opener, a maiden claiming event going two turns I thought that a 4/1 shot looked to have potential to upset the field as the lone MSW dropper.  But there just wasn't enough to convince me to bet.  Good thing, he ran dead last at 4/1 and the winner was a big surprise package paying $30!  In the second we were going a mile and a quarter with entry level older horses.  Johnny Beat was a legitimate favorite.  Not only did e have the best Beyer in his last TWO starts, but they were both earned at marathon distances.  He was probably too far back early last time out but still finished a best-of-the-rest second behind multiple winner O Wanderlust (my pick that day) and seven clear of the rest of the field as the 8/5 favorite.  Didn't look like a lot of pace to run at, but he looked best on paper.  I went with a minimum play.  He stalked the two leaders thee wide into the far turn as the field ran 3 x 3.  He moved up willingly through the turn to assume command and then had to dig down to hold off not one by two challengers late.  WINNER-WINNER, chicken dinner!  It didn't pay much (less than $10) but I'm now two for two on the day! 

 

In the third I liked Spiritofthenorth in spite of the fact that he'd lost for this same price tag in three-lifetime company last time out.  The move to Erico DaSilva was the key as he's a 32% winner for this barn.  Very wide into the far turn at 4/1 and hung through the lane crossing the wire sixth.  I passed the fourth, another maiden claimer for juveniles.  My top pick won and paid $9.40.....win some, lose some.  In the fifth I really liked Courtisinsession who was 7/5 in the program.  But his last two figures of 67 and 68 towered over the other two-year-olds with experience.  And the two first-timers came from barns that were not successful with those kind.  The crowd agreed and made him the 4/5 chalk.  He moved easily to challenge through the turn with all the momentum and I was sure I was looking at the easy winner, but as they straightened or home he simply ran evenly, fourth.  I passed the sixth as the only horse I liked was making his first start for a tag but he'd only won once in his last fifteen starts while the barn was 2-for-31 in all of 2015 - yikes!  But he won and paid over $12.  Sigh.   In the 7th handicappers were faced with a dilemma.  As I wrote in my analysis, I'd like to have a conversation with trainer Catherine Day-Phillips about her filly Peggy O.  In her debut she'd drawn off by daylight earning the comment "ridden out."  And in her last race she drew off in 2-lifetime allowance comment with the same "ridden out" comment.  But two back she was eleventh, beaten nearly ten leghts at the half mile pole and then was pulled up!  Which one would we get tonight?  I did like that the runner-up from her most recent was my "best" last Saturday and won for fun.  I decided to bank on her being the "good Peggy O" not the pulled-up version.  She went right to the front, which is not the prototype of a winner here at Woodbine.  But when the stalkers and closers began to make their move on her turning for home she hit another gear and ran away with ease!  Though she only paid $3.50 I still was cashing for close to $20 with my third win of the day. 

 

The finale tonight as a maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  Civic Duty was listed at 6/1 in the program and as I wrote, it wasn't as much about how good Civic Duty was, but the company she was facing here.  I her debut at this level she was 4th at every call while splitting a nine-horse field.  But her trainer, Rachel Halden showed a big 29% win rate with second time maidens.  The favorite had failed to produce when dropped from $50K to $25K and again when dropped to this $20K level, not once but twice.  Civic Duty sat mid-pack to the turn, accelerated five-wide into the stretch and collared the leaders at the 16th pole, then edged clear.  She took some money late, but still paid decent $7.50 so I cashed for nearly $20 again.  An excellent day with four wins from six selections and double-digit cash profit!

 

October 4

The BEST DAY Of the Week!

After struggling overall yesterday, but doing well at Woodbine I was looking forward to perhaps turning things around today.  I had five selections on the day and I was VERY confident in my "BET of the Day" in the co-featured Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes.  Let's see how the day played out......I passed the opener, a maiden special for 2-year-olds.  Typically I can find a trainer angle or solid workout, or an experienced runner in these but the Sunday opener featured NINE FIRST-TIME starters!  Little to handicap on, and the winner was an 8/1 longshot - good handicapping decision to know that I didn't know anything!  IN the second I really liked Finn's Jewel.  The first thing I liked about the race overall was that I anticipated Bear's Pride, the 9/5 program favorite to be well bet and I just KNEW he would not win.  Why?  Because he was pure speed and it is rare indeed for a front runner to last the length of the long Woodbine stretch.  Meanwhile my selection, Finn's Jewel got top rider Eurico DaSilva and had made improvement in each of his last three starts.  Sure enough the even money chalk went right to the front, but heading into the turn he was caught and passed by a price horse.  Meanwhile DaSilva was patiently handling Finn on the rail.  Once they turned for home he eased outside of runners and burst down the stretch, pulling away through the final sixteenth.  While he was NOT the favorite, he was still bet down to 3/2 odds, so my double investment netted me only $25 - but hey, that's better than even money that the favorite would have paid! 

 

The third was a maiden claimer that had the top two betting choices separated by a neck last time, I just felt neither would win, and had no clue on any of the others.  Sure enough the lone debut runner scored at odds of 5/1.  I liked Canadian Gold in the 4th a non-winners of two lifetime allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the main.  But right out of the gate he was sharply squeezed and steadied, spotting the field at least half a dozen lengths.  He made a decent run into the lane but was had given up way too much ground, 7th.  I thought the fifth was another maiden claimer with little to offer and again I was right to pass as a $12 winner romped by daylight.  The 6th was the BET of the Day - the Grade 3 Mazarine for juvenile fillies.  I was nearly certain of two things:  (1) Gamble's Ghost was going to be a short price, and (2) she was a VERY likely winner.  She'd won both starts and her two Beyer figures were daylight clear of anything in the field.  The second, third, and fourth program choices had all earned identical 63 numbers in their last while Ghost had earned a 74 & 80 in her two starts.  But racing is a funny thing......she was confidently handled through the far turn, but when jockey Luis Contreras was ready to let her go there was a wall of four fillies across the track.  He waited, and waited for a seam, finally at the furlong pole he got the narrowest of openings and asked her to go.  The response was immediate and devastating as she quickly shot through and by the sixteenth pole she was daylight clear with Contreras never reaching for the stick.  ULTRA impressive and very deserving of the "BET of the Day" status I'd given her. 

 

She paid nearly $3, which I thought was huge considering the advantage I thought she had, so with my big time play I was cashing for close to $40!  The seventh was another head scratcher where only one in the field had even approached the 12 1/2 furlong distance.  A big time pass for me - and again I was oh-so-smart to pass with the winner paying 13/1.  The 8th was the co-featured Grade 3 Grey for two-year-old colts going the same mile and a sixteenth the fillies had gone in the 6th.  Riker was the obvious choice on paper and he'd won for me twice already.  BUT.....those two were sprints and if speed holds, it is almost always in a sprint here.  Two-year-olds going two turns for the first time AND backing a front runner, who WOULD be the favorite.  I was inclined to pass and just watch.  But he had shown the ability to rate in his 5 1/2 furlong debut and his two speed figures were both better than anything his rivals had ever run.  All hopes of rating went out the window when he was in front by two inside the first fifty yards.  But then the rest of the riders were apparently all of the same mind that he could not go wire-to-wire because they let the favorite cruise loose on the lead through easy fractions of :24 and change, :48.4, and a pokey 1:14.1 to the pace call.  Still, as heads turned for home the stalkers were coming and had cut into the lead. 

 

But Riker had plenty left an he re-broke to open up and was clear the entire length of the stretch!  Again, though the favorite I thought even money was a good price for him based on handicapping facts, so I cashed for $20 with my double investment.  The last bet of the day was the lone Woodbine 40% Club play of the afternoon.  Conquest Quickdraw was sent out by Mark Casse for Conquest Stables.  He was a $390K OBS sales grad that was highly regarded at 2yo when he was second at 3/5.  He was off from that November beginning until last month when he won for me.  He was stepping out of maiden ranks to entry level allowance foes today.  If as good as his connections thought he was - they are probably eyeing stakes tests down the road - then he should be good enough to beat first time winners; and then there is the "club angle."  I tripled the bet.  He stalked three wide into the lane and even the track announcer commented "let's see who's got the best kick for home."  There was no contest a Conquest drew off with authority. 

 

His victory netted me nearly $30 and made for my fourth win from five selections on the day.  In spite of short prices on the winners I made a week-best profit of just a few cents shy of $40!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  And it topped off a 7-for-13 weekend at Woodbine.  Nice.

October 3

TRULY - The Road To The Breeders' Cup Has Begun!

Fall-Stars Weekend / Super Saturday

For the first time since Travers Day I was at the races on Saturday and very much looking forward to a big day.  Even thought there were multiple Grade 1 preps for the Breeders' Cup at Belmont last weekend, there were more graded preps this weekend in what the New Yorkers were calling "Super Saturday 2!"  In addition the multiple-graded stakes bonanza continued today at Keeneland where I was hoping to gain some insight into some Breeders' Cup races and runners.  Locally at Gulfstream Park it is "closing weekend" for the Hallandale track as they move to what was formerly Calder and is now called Gulfstream Park West on Wednesday.  And this final card was littered with stakes races as it as the culmination of the Florida Sire Stakes series.  I obviously had picks from Woodbine and I had two races from Santa Anita on my sheet.  With my blood clot issues still hanging around I felt on Friday like it was time to "move on" and I anticipated feeling better if I simply did what I've always done when under the weather, and that is not let it slow me down.  So I booked a seat at the track.  I did make the compromise of sitting rather than standing on my feet all day, and I decided against doing a highlight video as that requires going up and down the many steps to the second level and I just didn't want to push my luck.  I didn't realize until late Friday that with the purchase of a seat Gulfstream was giving away free fedora hats!  So the first thing I did was get my ticket from one of the lovely gals behind the Gulfstream reception desk - Tiffany, who I've worked with on several Florida Derby purchases.  And it was nice she remembered me.  She's a cute brunette with a nice figure and when she thanked me by name I was very appreciative.  The racing started with a nice win at Keeneland, continuing my success from yesterday.  It was a nine furlong allowance test on the main track and I liked Emmajestic.  She had run a career best Beyer in her most recent and missed by a mere neck.  She had some nice works locally looked ready to fire.  I also liked that she'd rallied sharply in the last race in spite of slow fractions, and I thought today would be a better set up.  My original plan was to bet the minimum but when I saw she was the DRF handicapper for Keeneland, Byron King's best bet I doubled the bet.  She was three wide out of the turn and needed the full length of the Keeneland stretch - the longest of any Breeders' Cup venue - and was J-U-S-T up in time!  She'd left the post as the 3/2 favorite so the $5.00 payout meant I'd cash my ticket for $25, which I did with one of my favorite tellers, Kimberly.  It's an ironic thing that not only does she share my wife's name, but she I also an identical twin who's sister works here! 

 

Oh it's good to be back at Gulfstream!  In the first of the Gulfstream stakes I liked Dogwood Trail who was the 3/5 favorite.  Dueled into the stretch and then was run down by a closer, second.  But I was back in the winner's circle soon after returning from the rail as Readtheprospectus won at Belmont.  I had picked him first off the claim for top claiming trainer David Jacobson.  This six-year-old only has fifteen career stars but he'd won EIGHT of them!  Got a great draw on the outside to stalk the leaders and make his winning move for top NY jockey Irad Ortiz, a 26% winner for Jacobson.  I planned to double the bet, but when I saw that he was NY Handicapper Dave Liftin's best I upped the investment.  He was confidently handled through the turn, moved up easily to the front but was all-out through deep stretch to prevail narrowly.  He had been the 6/5 favorite at post time so my triple investment got me back over $30!  The race was hardly official before they were racing in the second at Woodbine, my first bet there.  I liked the Mark Casse entry of Conquest Hot Humor and Conquest Streetkid.  They were short odds in the program - 6/5 - and with Patrick Husbands named on both I knew only one would run.  But which ever it was it would be a Woodbine 40% Club play.  When I checked the changes for the card I saw that in what rarely occurs neither of them scratched and instead top rider Eurico Rosa DaSilva was named on the "other" half of the entry.  Now I was certain one would win so like the first at Keeneland I upped the investment.  As they turned for home the 1a was setting the pace but DaSilva had the 1-Conquest Hot Humor (my preferred of the two) in full flight for the wire with all the momentum.  The stable-mates were well clear of the rest of the field and I was a winner again! 

 

 

So I've been back at the races for literally less than a half an hour and already I've won with three of four picks!  WOW, what a day this should be!  Financial Modeling was my pick in Belmont's 4th and was an even 4th at 2/1 with a minimum investment.  Keeneland's third was a nw2x allowance-optional claiming sprint with a $62,500 claiming tag.  Mark Casse's Coastline had already cleared the nw2x level two back coming from off the pace at seven furlongs and at first glance today's six panels might have appeared too short.  But with the long Keeneland stretch and a ton of speed signed on, I liked his chances.  He also had a sizzling recent work in a blistering :59.4 for five furlongs.  Just as I anticipated there was a four-way duel for the lead into the turn.  Coastline tracked the pace on the outside to the far turn, then slipped inside to save ground until heads turned for home.  Then he moved off the rail for clear running and blew by the field!  What was really nice was he was NOT the favorite and paid better than 2/1 so with my double investment I cashed again at Kim's window, this time for over $30!  Man, four for six and I'm ahead over $50! WHOOOO HOOOO! 

 

I missed on the next four - 2nd at 3/1 at Woodbine in a maiden route.  Then REALLY disappointing when my Belmont "best" saw Honor Code, one of the leading candidates for the Breeders' Cup Classic, run third in the Grade 2 Kelso going a one turn mile where he'd been 3/2-1-0.  He seemed to really struggle with the off-going.  Then I was a distant ninth at 4/5 in Keeneland's 4th before running fourth at 3/1 at Gulfstream in a MSW.  Finally got back on the beam with my fifth win on the first sheet of selections with Hampstead Heath at Woodbine.  He was the class of this nw2x allowance field having just won a stakes race, and on top of that he loves this oval with a local resume over the Woodbine turf of 13/5-3-1.  Finally, last season he had shown this same pattern:  Won the Halton Stakes, stretched out in allowance company and won again.  This year....won the Halton Stakes last out and today was stretching out in allowance company.  I tripled the bet.  He was a little farther back than I would have wanted him and when he rallied into the stretch to catch the two horses on the lead NEITHER of them would go away......PHOTO FINISH!  It was very close, but I was pretty sure I was the winner.......

 

Right on the wire he was in front.  He was the 6/5 favorite, but I thought that was a more than fair price considering my angles, and when I returned to my blonde friend with a winning ticket again she counted out over $30, again!  So as I turned the page I'd won with five of eleven selections and was clearly in the black heading into the second half of the day.  But that was about it for me.  The rest of the afternoon was a l-o-n-g afternoon as I had very few picks at Gulfstream so I sat at my simulcast carrel and watched selection after selection fail to produce a winning effort.  Not only was I not winning but the results of the graded stakes were not giving any insight to what might happen in a month.....it was a parade of longshots, check it out: 

 

And it was equally not a day for the logical winners at Gulfstream as five of the six stakes winners were big prices:  $51.20, $40.60, $26.00, $28.00, and $20.40!  No wonder I went on an 0-for-11 skid.  I had my chances as I was 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in seven of the eleven races.  I finally got two wins late in the date shortly before I was ready to head for home.  In the featured event at Belmont, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup I thought Tonalist was finally ready to win.  His "issue" it seemed to me was he'd been taken so far off the pace recently and I thought that today he'd revert to a stalking trip.  He did and he won convincingly. 

 

He was the third runner on the day that I had planned to bet one amount, but upped the bet when it came time to put money down, so when I go back to the races I'll cash for $30.  And the last win of the day came at Woodbine where I thought Cozsheca looked in a maiden special turf sprint.  She'd crossed the wire first at this level two back and exited that maiden event to run in allowance company where she was a good second while clear of the rest of the field.  The return to the maiden ranks made her a standout.  But, being lightly raced and still a maiden I was only going for a triple investment.  As I watched Tonalist win I re-read my comments on the Woodbine finale and I said to myself, "You KNOW she'll win - up the bet!"  So I made her a prime-time play.  She broke sharply near the front but was eased back.  She rallied through the turn, split horses into the stretch and drove home to win.  Close to post time she was a big 5/2 and I was counting on at least $70 but then the late money came in and she eventually was 6/5.  Still, my ticket will be worth nearly $50 when I see my cute little blonde teller next time!

 

Sept 30 - Oct 2

Week Ten

After having sparkling results through the end of the month of September, the first two cards did not provide a lot of Woodbine winners.  On Wednesday evening I scored right out of the gate in the opener when Pretty Bird went wire-to-wire as the 3/5 favorite.  But that was it - Avie's Quality was a stopping 6th after pressing the lead to the turn at 6/1; Colleen's Sailor led into the stretch before facing to fourth at 2/1; Boldnpossible debuted with a pace-setting effort and looked clear at the furlong marker before getting run down late, second at 5/2 and then Simon's Siesta closed the night-time program with an even fourth at 7/2. 

 

Friday was Opening Day of the Fall Keeneland Meet, and this would be cause for celebration any year, but this year in particular it meant the countdown was on to the Breeders' Cup which will be held here for the first time ever over the last weekend in October, and I was one of the very fortunate few to secure seats for the World Championships!  So on this afternoon I had my Woodbine selections and four picks from Lexington! 

 

The inability to hit on multiple tickets was still with me in Toronto.  Edgehill Road was 9/2 after being listed at an absurd 20/1 by the DRF linemaker, and was clear on the lead into the stretch before stopping to be third.  Crescent was the 9/5 favorite and had a perfect stalking trip into the stretch, but then had no response fading to seventh.  Conquest Mystique didn't fire after breaking in the air, 4th at 2/1 and Trip Over The Line was bet down to 6/5 favoritism, but was 6th across the line.  I finally hit one winner when Simply Irresistible won the 8th, a two-lifetime allowance going seven furlongs on the turf.  Her first nine races on the main track did little to inspire confidence, but in her last three when moved to the outer turf course she'd had a good third, thn won with authority and was a fast-closing third from post 12.  She'd paired 73 figures and looked ready for a peak effort.  In spite of the fact that it was a thrilling stretch duel and a photo finish I had no worries - why?  She was dueling with her entry-mate!  And they were daylight clear of the rest of the betting interests.  It was just nice that I won with the horse I'd picked! 

 

In the finale Ezzthetic went right to the front and was leading them turning for home, then stopped dead on the track fading through the lane to dead last.  Meanwhile I got off to an encouraging start at Keeneland.  I felt badly for Keeneland management and fans because you know they were all so excited for today, and it poured down rain throughout the afternoon.  The second race was on the turf and they let it stay on the turf - which I was a little surprised, but happy about.  It was an allowance race for non-winners of 4-other than.  That is a very unusual category that you rarely see.  But Sunshine Millions Turf champion, Manchurian High was a perfect fit for the conditions.  He also was a five time winner at this distance (while only 3-for-17 at all others).  Rating off the leaders through the far turn he made his move into the stretch and I was glad for the extra-long distance of the Keeneland stretch as it wasn't until the final 16th that his big kick took over and he blew by with a late surge.  The $7.80 payoff was a nice reward for my first selection, and win, at Keeneland! 

 

I missed with Todd Pletcher's Gangster as the 8/5 favorite in the 4th, but scored with Toronto-based trainer Mark Casse on Conuest Windy City in a juvenile Maiden Special going two turns.  After a turf sprint debut at Saratoga he was sent to the Churchill Downs to run in the Grade 3 Iroquois around two-turns.....and he was the FAVORITE!  He had all kinds of early trouble but was running hard late to be fourth.  The return to maiden company made him a most logical play.  He was near the back into the far turn, then blew by the field like they were all tied to the rail with devastating authority!  Two-for-three in Lexington! 

 

The final pick of the day was in the Grade 3 Phoenix, a prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint.  I did not like the favorite, Runhappy, who ha surprised the Grade 1 King's Bishop last time out.  I wasn't full of confidence on defending BC Sprint champion Work All Week who had faltered for me on two different occasions in graded company, but looked back to his 2014 form last out with an easy win in listed stakes.  I didn't think this was the toughest Grade 3 I'd ever seen AND Work All Week had won this race here last year.  He broke from post 12 and was wide throughout as Runhappy became one of the few horses to go wire-to-wire.  I won with 3-of-10 on the day, but lost money overall.