October 3

TRULY - The Road To The Breeders' Cup Has Begun!

Fall-Stars Weekend / Super Saturday

For the first time since Travers Day I was at the races on Saturday and very much looking forward to a big day.  Even thought there were multiple Grade 1 preps for the Breeders' Cup at Belmont last weekend, there were more graded preps this weekend in what the New Yorkers were calling "Super Saturday 2!"  In addition the multiple-graded stakes bonanza continued today at Keeneland where I was hoping to gain some insight into some Breeders' Cup races and runners.  Locally at Gulfstream Park it is "closing weekend" for the Hallandale track as they move to what was formerly Calder and is now called Gulfstream Park West on Wednesday.  And this final card was littered with stakes races as it as the culmination of the Florida Sire Stakes series.  I obviously had picks from Woodbine and I had two races from Santa Anita on my sheet.  With my blood clot issues still hanging around I felt on Friday like it was time to "move on" and I anticipated feeling better if I simply did what I've always done when under the weather, and that is not let it slow me down.  So I booked a seat at the track.  I did make the compromise of sitting rather than standing on my feet all day, and I decided against doing a highlight video as that requires going up and down the many steps to the second level and I just didn't want to push my luck.  I didn't realize until late Friday that with the purchase of a seat Gulfstream was giving away free fedora hats!  So the first thing I did was get my ticket from one of the lovely gals behind the Gulfstream reception desk - Tiffany, who I've worked with on several Florida Derby purchases.  And it was nice she remembered me.  She's a cute brunette with a nice figure and when she thanked me by name I was very appreciative.  The racing started with a nice win at Keeneland, continuing my success from yesterday.  It was a nine furlong allowance test on the main track and I liked Emmajestic.  She had run a career best Beyer in her most recent and missed by a mere neck.  She had some nice works locally looked ready to fire.  I also liked that she'd rallied sharply in the last race in spite of slow fractions, and I thought today would be a better set up.  My original plan was to bet the minimum but when I saw she was the DRF handicapper for Keeneland, Byron King's best bet I doubled the bet.  She was three wide out of the turn and needed the full length of the Keeneland stretch - the longest of any Breeders' Cup venue - and was J-U-S-T up in time!  She'd left the post as the 3/2 favorite so the $5.00 payout meant I'd cash my ticket for $25, which I did with one of my favorite tellers, Kimberly.  It's an ironic thing that not only does she share my wife's name, but she I also an identical twin who's sister works here! 

 

Oh it's good to be back at Gulfstream!  In the first of the Gulfstream stakes I liked Dogwood Trail who was the 3/5 favorite.  Dueled into the stretch and then was run down by a closer, second.  But I was back in the winner's circle soon after returning from the rail as Readtheprospectus won at Belmont.  I had picked him first off the claim for top claiming trainer David Jacobson.  This six-year-old only has fifteen career stars but he'd won EIGHT of them!  Got a great draw on the outside to stalk the leaders and make his winning move for top NY jockey Irad Ortiz, a 26% winner for Jacobson.  I planned to double the bet, but when I saw that he was NY Handicapper Dave Liftin's best I upped the investment.  He was confidently handled through the turn, moved up easily to the front but was all-out through deep stretch to prevail narrowly.  He had been the 6/5 favorite at post time so my triple investment got me back over $30!  The race was hardly official before they were racing in the second at Woodbine, my first bet there.  I liked the Mark Casse entry of Conquest Hot Humor and Conquest Streetkid.  They were short odds in the program - 6/5 - and with Patrick Husbands named on both I knew only one would run.  But which ever it was it would be a Woodbine 40% Club play.  When I checked the changes for the card I saw that in what rarely occurs neither of them scratched and instead top rider Eurico Rosa DaSilva was named on the "other" half of the entry.  Now I was certain one would win so like the first at Keeneland I upped the investment.  As they turned for home the 1a was setting the pace but DaSilva had the 1-Conquest Hot Humor (my preferred of the two) in full flight for the wire with all the momentum.  The stable-mates were well clear of the rest of the field and I was a winner again! 

 

 

So I've been back at the races for literally less than a half an hour and already I've won with three of four picks!  WOW, what a day this should be!  Financial Modeling was my pick in Belmont's 4th and was an even 4th at 2/1 with a minimum investment.  Keeneland's third was a nw2x allowance-optional claiming sprint with a $62,500 claiming tag.  Mark Casse's Coastline had already cleared the nw2x level two back coming from off the pace at seven furlongs and at first glance today's six panels might have appeared too short.  But with the long Keeneland stretch and a ton of speed signed on, I liked his chances.  He also had a sizzling recent work in a blistering :59.4 for five furlongs.  Just as I anticipated there was a four-way duel for the lead into the turn.  Coastline tracked the pace on the outside to the far turn, then slipped inside to save ground until heads turned for home.  Then he moved off the rail for clear running and blew by the field!  What was really nice was he was NOT the favorite and paid better than 2/1 so with my double investment I cashed again at Kim's window, this time for over $30!  Man, four for six and I'm ahead over $50! WHOOOO HOOOO! 

 

I missed on the next four - 2nd at 3/1 at Woodbine in a maiden route.  Then REALLY disappointing when my Belmont "best" saw Honor Code, one of the leading candidates for the Breeders' Cup Classic, run third in the Grade 2 Kelso going a one turn mile where he'd been 3/2-1-0.  He seemed to really struggle with the off-going.  Then I was a distant ninth at 4/5 in Keeneland's 4th before running fourth at 3/1 at Gulfstream in a MSW.  Finally got back on the beam with my fifth win on the first sheet of selections with Hampstead Heath at Woodbine.  He was the class of this nw2x allowance field having just won a stakes race, and on top of that he loves this oval with a local resume over the Woodbine turf of 13/5-3-1.  Finally, last season he had shown this same pattern:  Won the Halton Stakes, stretched out in allowance company and won again.  This year....won the Halton Stakes last out and today was stretching out in allowance company.  I tripled the bet.  He was a little farther back than I would have wanted him and when he rallied into the stretch to catch the two horses on the lead NEITHER of them would go away......PHOTO FINISH!  It was very close, but I was pretty sure I was the winner.......

 

Right on the wire he was in front.  He was the 6/5 favorite, but I thought that was a more than fair price considering my angles, and when I returned to my blonde friend with a winning ticket again she counted out over $30, again!  So as I turned the page I'd won with five of eleven selections and was clearly in the black heading into the second half of the day.  But that was about it for me.  The rest of the afternoon was a l-o-n-g afternoon as I had very few picks at Gulfstream so I sat at my simulcast carrel and watched selection after selection fail to produce a winning effort.  Not only was I not winning but the results of the graded stakes were not giving any insight to what might happen in a month.....it was a parade of longshots, check it out: 

 

And it was equally not a day for the logical winners at Gulfstream as five of the six stakes winners were big prices:  $51.20, $40.60, $26.00, $28.00, and $20.40!  No wonder I went on an 0-for-11 skid.  I had my chances as I was 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in seven of the eleven races.  I finally got two wins late in the date shortly before I was ready to head for home.  In the featured event at Belmont, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup I thought Tonalist was finally ready to win.  His "issue" it seemed to me was he'd been taken so far off the pace recently and I thought that today he'd revert to a stalking trip.  He did and he won convincingly. 

 

He was the third runner on the day that I had planned to bet one amount, but upped the bet when it came time to put money down, so when I go back to the races I'll cash for $30.  And the last win of the day came at Woodbine where I thought Cozsheca looked in a maiden special turf sprint.  She'd crossed the wire first at this level two back and exited that maiden event to run in allowance company where she was a good second while clear of the rest of the field.  The return to the maiden ranks made her a standout.  But, being lightly raced and still a maiden I was only going for a triple investment.  As I watched Tonalist win I re-read my comments on the Woodbine finale and I said to myself, "You KNOW she'll win - up the bet!"  So I made her a prime-time play.  She broke sharply near the front but was eased back.  She rallied through the turn, split horses into the stretch and drove home to win.  Close to post time she was a big 5/2 and I was counting on at least $70 but then the late money came in and she eventually was 6/5.  Still, my ticket will be worth nearly $50 when I see my cute little blonde teller next time!