October 10

BET of the Day Lifts Me To WINNING Day!

It was an unusual Saturday for me.  Even during college football season I typically have several tracks and several races that I'm interested in.  But today there were only two graded stakes on the national calendar - one at Keeneland and one at Belmont - and I just wasn't interested enough in either to handicap the full card of races at those tracks to play a stakes event that I didn't have a firm opinion in.  In addition, tonight was Opening Night for our Florida Panthers NHL hockey season, so I knew going in that I would not be going to the races.  I was content to simply handicap the Woodbine races and play those like I do on any normal weekday racing day.  After I'd handicapped the card on Friday morning I had seven picks from the ten race card - unusual in that I have found through this project that my best success seems to be when I'm selective about betting only when I have a firm opinion, not just an opinion on the winner.  When Saturday morning rolled around I decided to take a look again at the two stakes events, maybe I DID like someone enough to play.  At Keeneland in the Grade 1 QE II on the turf for three-year-old fillies everyone liked the Pletcher filly who had won decisively in her last two, both at Saratoga.  I'd bet against her and I just wasn't sold on her.  Maybe I was wrong?  And at Belmont it was the Grade 3 Noble Damsel with two likely favorites, neither of which inspired me.  When I looked at Dave Liftin's analysis it confirmed to me that I did NOT have a strong opinion and I was certain I wanted no part of that action.  The Keeneland race kept swirling around in my head, and by mid-afternoon I thought I'd play.  I was watching college football and opened my Twinspires account on my phone; logged in, went to Keeneland's card, went to the wagering page..... and then I just had this nagging feeling that this was a mistake.  Looked at the choices and then said, "no, not doing it."  So all I had were the seven Woodbine picks.  In the second, a MSW for two-year-old colts it looked really REALLY hard to go past Majest Slew who had been third in the Swynford Stakes behind Riker, who had come back to win the Grade 3 Grey Stakes last weekends.  He had two seconds and a third with speed figures that put him clearly in front of the rest of the field.  He was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and tracked the pace through the far turn, accelerated through the lane to the leader at the furlong pole and couldn't get by....second best.  In the third we were off the turf again - I don't know why this surprised me after we'd been off the turf yesterday, but it never occurred to me.  I stuck with Eminent Force who was first off the claim for trainer Michael DePaulo, making him a Woodbine 40% Club play.  He was a big 5/1 and made a huge move on the turn.....then flattened out and was a well-beaten fifth.  Passed both the fourth and the fifth, so I went back to the big screen television to watch college football.  I came back in time for the sixth in time to watch Awesome Dove - my top pick for the turf - leave the gate as the 8/5 favorite despite being a first time starter for Malcolm Pierce and top jockey Eurico DaSilva.  As the field turned for home he was stuck behind a wall of horses and it was obvious to me that an attempt to swing wide would be to take him at least six wide, losing any chance at victory.  But a seam opened up on the rail and DaSilva pushed him to go.  You could just see by the horse's body language, he wanted no part of skimming the rail in tight quarters and he just ran evenly to the wire, 5th.  I went back to college football.  I returned with minutes to go before the featured Victorian Queen Stakes in the 8th so I opened up the replays and watched my pick in the seventh, RU Watchingbud stalk the leaders into the turn at 9/2 and stop like he was shot, 8th.  This is NOT a very good day as I'm now 0-for-4!  I flipped back to the live streaming broadcast from Woodbine for the two-year-old feature event.  Typically when I bet online - and I freely admit there is no rhyme or reason for this - but I am very hesitant to bet "all in" no matter how much I really like a runner.  At the track I'll open up the bankroll if I'm confident, but online, I just am reluctant to do so.  But when I looked at the field for the Victorian Queen I KNEW that this would be an exception.  I'd seen Caren run before as she swept to three consecutive wins, two of them stakes with my money on her.  And then when Jim Anderson and I were on track at Woodbine on the day before Woodbine Mile Day we'd seen the Grade 2 Natalma run live and I recognized her name.  She was a sharp third that day.  The drop back into a listed stakes, and a return to a main-track sprint was right in her wheel-house.  An added incentive was that the runner-up in the Natalma was Gamble's Ghost who was ULTRA impressive last Saturday in winning the Grade 3 Mazarine as my bet of the day.  Any concern about Caren turning back in distance was wiped out by her best-of-22 bullet move after the turf try which was followed by a near bullet just a week ago.  She was being heavily bet as they approached the gate, but I was delighted when she slipped up to 1/2 at post time.  Right out of the gate you could see she was eager to go, but the rider let her settle just outside a price play longshot.  He held her into the far turn and then let her run.  Se quickly opened up by daylight and looked long gone.  The early pace fractions had been fast so the closers were making up ground through the lane, but they were simply not in the same class as Caren!  WINNER! 

 

I had opened up my "virtual wallet" and gone a US Grant to win, so I was going to collect nearly $80 for my winning selection!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  Before we left for the hockey game I was able to watch the running of my final two selections - in the 9th Breaking Ball was my upset pick at 8/1 in the program to win a nw2x sprint on the main.  Led into the lane - that nearly never works out - before giving way grudgingly to be fourth at 5/1.  In the finale the only thing I did NOT like about Trini Lime was that he was stuck with post 13.  The only other time he'd run for a maiden claiming tag he was in front for a $50K price tag - he'd most recently been bumped back into MSW company and tried the turf.  Today he dropped back in for a tag, and a much lower $16K price, and returned to sprinting on the maide track.  I thought this combination of angles with the outside draw set him up for a great stalking trip - the prototype of how to win at Woodbine.  The crowd let him go at 3/1 - oh how I wish I'd doubled the bet!  He pressed the pace, dueled through the turn, edged to the front and opened up.  The pace had taken something out of him, but he had enough to hold on for my second win of the afternoon! 

 

Trini Lime paid $8.60 to win so I collected over $20 and I was 2-for-7 with another winning day.  Oh - how about those stakes races?  As I was waiting for the finale at Woodbine I pulled up the Belmont race and watched a $10 winner go by BOTH the favorites, neither of which I liked - smart move to pass that one.  And as I flipped over to the Keeneland channel it was just about to go official and the winner had gone off at 19/1, paying $40.  The filly everyone liked, that I almost bet on.....3/5 and fourth!  Another smart move.  We headed out to the Panthers game and we left a little early because it was Opening Night.  Normally we leave about 25 minutes before the start and we are sitting in our seats with ten minutes or more to wait.  This evening we left 45 minutes early and waited in traffic.  But most surprising was when we showed our parking pass cars were parked nearly all the way to the entrance, we've got ourselves a FULL HOUSE!  Sure enough the announce 19,000 sell-out crowd was ready for some hockey, South Florida style.  Hopes are high that we can make the playoffs this year, but to do so the consensus seems to be we need:  (1) a good year by 47-year-old superstar Jamir Jagar; (2) another All-Star year from goalie Roberto Luongo; (3) more scoring in general; and specifically (4) our power play HAS to be better.  The game starts, the crowd roars and before we are 90 seconds into the game WE SCORE!  A minute later we are on the power play and immediately bury the puck!  2-0 - this is awesome!  Inside of four more minutes we've scored again even strength and added ANOTHER power play goal to take a 4-0 lead and chased Philadelphia's goalie!  I read later that it was the fastest four goals to open a game in NHL history.  But it was far from over as we poured it on by pounding the Flyers 7-1, and we also pounded them in a couple of good fights.  What a great Saturday it turned out to be!