October 14

A SURPRISING WINNING NIGHT!

Day 45

It's Pattison International Week, one of the key weekends of the Woodbine meeting, and it's also the week that Kim and I head out for a cruise to see the fall leaves in the Northeast.  The week also saw us purchase a new living room set - finally! - yesterday, and it was delivered late this evening.  But the racing provided a very interesting story line.  I cannot tell you that I was surprised I had a winning night, I really was pretty certain I'd win for the evening.  But what was VERY surprising was how I won for the night.  One reason I felt pretty confident about the racing this evening was I was confident that I'd been very selective and had avoided races where it looked to be a "go figure" result.  One of the FOUR races I passed on produced a $30 winner while two of them saw the short priced favorite score (one as my top pick) - but in neither case would I ever have put money on them.  In the opener, a non-winners of two lifetime, it appeared to me that Conquest Kronos was a legitimate favorite.  He was dropping from a $40K 2L spot into this $20K 2L race and the competition was weak.  He was very wide from the very start, through the turn, and down the stretch and never made a solid run, third at even money.  In the second, when I first looked over the race it appeared to me that there were several who wanted to be on the lead, or at the very worst pushing the early lead.  Since speed rarely carries here in Toronto I looked for a strong finisher.  I couldn't really find one, and as I re-examined the field one final time I was left with a Woodbine 40% Club play on one of the front-runners - that would be Flashy Margaritta for trainer Ralph Biamonte.  He is a club member with a single angle, when he saddles a horse owned in partnership between Danny Lococo and Mary Biamonte - the trainer's wife (you better believe he wants to win with those!).  I liked the fact that this four-year-old gelding had a relatively inside draw AND got top jockey Eurica Rosa DaSilva.  As I wrote in my analysis, maybe, just maybe he clears the field and goes wire to wire.  Sure enough, when the gates sprung open DaSilva immediately had this one in front by open lengths.  When the pressers tried to make up ground heading into the far turn he let it out a notch.  I felt good as they ran through the turn because everyone else was really being asked for their best but DaSilva was still riding confidently with just mild urging.  He never even had to raise his stick and Flashy Margaritta was LONG GONE. 

 

The best part was, she'd gone off at a big 9/2 mutual and paid over $11!  I was collecting nearly $30 to start the night off!  I passed the third.  The fourth was a maiden claiming event going the extended mile and an eighth distance.  My pick was Knutsford Park.  What landed me here was that there did not seem to be an confirmed front runner and Knutsford Park was stretching out from a sprint to a route.  Trainer Laurie Silvera showed a whopping $26% win rate with stretch-out runners at an even bigger $5.60 ROI for ever $2 bet.  I also liked the 4/1 program odds so I doubled the bet.  As they came out of the gate through the opening 16th Knutsford Park seemed a big eager, but the rider held him strongly and had him settle.  But the time they had straightened out down the back stretch he was in mid-pack.  Ok, I thought, trying to conserve energy for the long trip.  But when the opening quarter mile was posted in a pokey :25 and change and then the half mile in a pedestrian :50 and change while I was still near the back I knew I was in trouble, even if he did have a big kick.  As the field spun out of the turn he was beginning to move, but still near the back......they hit the furlong marker and Knutsford Park had found what seemed like his best stride, but the early leaders were still battling on the front end and the favorite was the only one making up ground.  But inside the 16th pole it was like my choice had found a whole new passing gear and he accelerated right by the top three and was actually clear well before the finish line!  The crowd had let Knutsford Park go off at 3/1 odds so the big $8.70 mutual led me to a winning payoff of over $40! 

I am guaranteed to have a winning night and the horse I was certain would carry me to a winning night had yet to run!  That best bet was in the finale and I thought it was a great story that I was anxious to describe.  This maiden claiming event going nine furlongs for bottom level claimers was a slow group of runners.  BUT, as I wrote, one of the great things about handicapping racing is that it's all about the mix of runners and a horse can hold a significant advantage as easily in a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup event as in an $8K maiden claimer on a Wednesday night from Woodbine.  Such was the case of Hey Big Man.  The other seven rivals' trainers were a combined 8-for-298 at the meet while Hey Big Man's trainer Danny Vella had EIGHTEEN wins.  'Big Man's last race figure of 60 was over 20 points higher than any of the last race figures of his rivals.  He looked like a slam dunk and as I watched the pre-race analysis EVERY public handicapper had him on top.  I thought the 1/2 odds he left the gate with were more than fair.  He was keen to run and the rider finally let him go approaching the far turn.  He went from third to in front by daylight without being asked and as they turned for home the rider was handling him very confidently and had yet to ask.  But I could see the second choice swiftly passing horses with all the momentum.  My jockey was oblivious and by the time he realized someone was coming with a full head of steam it was too late.  The upset was on as Hey Big Man could not get into gear quickly enough and had lost.  Poor riding can screw up even the best of selections.  But that's the great thing about this game.....but two nice-priced wins earlier in the evening STILL provided me with one of my biggest margins of profit in the last couple of weeks!  You just gotta love the track!