October 11

ANOTHER Late Run Of Winners!

This must be the "new formula" for my winning selections at Woodbine - pick some races early and be disappointed, then finish with a flourish to get a good winning percentage and a profit on the day!  I've found that typically on the Friday and Sunday card the level of racing is below that of Saturday and so I usually have far fewer bets.  But today I had six picks on the ten race card, two of which were Woodbine 40% Club plays.  In the second I thought that Danger Bay would be a prohibitive favorite to go wire-to-wire again as he'd just beat many of these.  But (a) front runners just don't win often, and (b) why was he dropping from a win for $25K into this $16K spot.  Just smelled fishy to me.  I went with the horse that chased him last time and seemed to be improving.  Blinks Forest was 7/1 at post time and was right on Danger Bay's hip as they hit the far turn.  Then Danger Bay let out another gear and cruised home by multiple lengths while Blinks Forest faded badly to be fifth.  In the fourth Tell Me Why was sent out by Malcolm Pierce with Eurico Rosa DaSilva.  All kinds of 30% win angles in play for this turf route led me to the pick.  He was 3/1 at post time and was mid-pack to the far turn.  He finished third, but there was never, ever a moment where I thought he had a chance to win.  I passed the fifth and then had four selections in a row to close the card down.  In the 6th, the Bundy Lawless Born In A Breeze was the 9/5 favorite based on back-to-back turf wins; both at this one mile trip and the most recent a stakes like this one.  As they hit the far turn I thought he was way too far back.  As heads turned for home he was running three times as fast as everyone else, but had been left with way too much work to do as he ran out of ground when closing like a freight train and a narrowly beaten third on the wire.  The seventh was a claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The likely favorite was 7-year-old Urban Forester who was a TEN time winner here.  But his most recent numbers said he wasn't the same kind of horse and might be a good one to go against and get a fair price.  I went with Sea of Silence who had dropped into a $10K three lifetime event and won for fun last time out.  Today he was in for a cheaper price tag, but facing open runners.  I liked that top jockey DaSilva was up to replace Luis Contreras who abandoned Sea of Silence for Urban Forester.  The crowd bet that one to 6/5 favoritism and let my pick go off at 5/1.  He split horses at the top of the stretch and forged to the front.  Inside the sixteenth pole he was desperate to find the wire as Urban Forester was flying.... too late, I WIN! 

 

The payoff of $7.10 let me cash for nearly $20 on my first win of the day.  The eighth was the featured Cup and Saucer Stakes for two-year-olds.  It was interesting to me, and I would love to know the explanation, that Mark Casse had an uncoupled entry.  Not so much that, but they were both owned by the same owner - Conquest Stables.  How can the same trainer enter two horses for the SAME owner and it's not a coupled entry?  No matter, it allowed the crowd to pick and THEY PICKED WRONG!  I liked Conquest Enforcer and he qualified as a Woodbine 40% Club play.  He had debuted in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes and was bet down to 7/2!  Somebody thought he had talent.  He finished fourth.  Today he was in listed company, and because he was still a maiden I thought he'd be a fair price.  He was at better than 3/1.  Through the far turn he was near the back, but jockey Patrick Husbands had lots of horse....no where to run.  They turned for home, still nowhere....at the furlong pole....STILL nowhere.  Then just before the 16th pole a seam.  Husbands said "GO" and Enforcer exploded impressively to draw off by daylight as he widened his winning margin with every stride! 

 

The $8.60 payoff meant I'd cash for over 20 beans!  TWO in a row!  The 9th, and my final bet of the day, was a Maiden Special for older going two turns on the main track.  Rebel With a Chance was listed at 5/2 and had been second in SEVEN of her nine starts.  An obvious play against!  UNLESS you had printed a copy of the Woodbine Handicapper authored by Jim Mazur.  In there you would see that trainer Laurie Silvera is a Woodbine 40% Club member with horses going turf to synthetic.  Last time out when Rebel finished second, again, Silvera had sent this one to the grass.  So the move back to the main track made this a big-time club play.  I figured even if he was bet to favoritism, he would not be a short price due to all those seconds.  Sure enough he was a more-than-fair 9/5 as they left the gate.  As they turned for home he hit high gear and blew by, then as announcer Robert Geller said, "...it's an absolute drubbing; one of the biggest wins of the entire meet!"  And I had him!  The $5.60 payoff meant I would cash for nearly $30 and finish the day 3-for-6 with a profit of nearly $25!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!  AND, because tomorrow is Columbus Day there will be racing again tomorrow afternoon!