October 7

A Good Start To The Week!

The week's highlights began before the first race ever reached the gate.  I received an email on Monday that my Breeders' Cup Tickets were in the mail and on Tuesday I got them via certified mail.  The first day of the racing week featured the night-time racing at Woodbine with first post again at 6:45 pm.  But in reading through the racing headlines early in the week I read that the feature at Keeneland today was the final of the "Breeders' Cup Win and You're In" races, the Grade 3 Jessamine.  But when I checked out the details I saw it was a full field of FOURTEEN two-year-old fillies on the turf.  Hard enough to pick a field of fourteen, much less two-year-olds, and fillies at that with none of them with more than a couple of races under their belt.  So I decided to pass on the race and had every intention of betting just the Woodbine races.  But this morning when I was reading through the paper on the porch overlooking the pool and lake with the temps in the mid-to-upper 70s I decided to check out what the Keeneland handicappers had to say about the race.  Both Mike Battaglia and my "pal" Katie Mikolay - who I'd met at the Fair Grounds - liked Harmonize, a Bill Mott filly ..... a LOT.  I went back and watched her blowout win in the PG Johnson at Saratoga in just her second start and I was duly impressed.  I then watched the DRF "Race of the Day" video.  No surprise the guys did not like the possibility of betting Harmonize as a short priced favorite in a big field of two-year-olds.  Granted.  But so often these "experts" pick based solely on price when the obvious favorite is also the obvious winner.  The one thing that concerned me the most about Harmonize was that she'd won her maiden debut on the front end and in the big win last out she was right up front pushing the leader.  Couple this with what I've learned about the Keeneland course and this wasn't good.  According to all the numbers for the Breeders' Cup the turf is a deadly course on front runners.  Just as an example, since 2005 there have been 58 turf races for allowance or stakes runners at nine furlongs or longer and FIFTY-FIVE of those were won from off the pace.  Now consider that several of today's fillies were stretching out from sprints and it looked like a recipe for an upset with an off-the-pace runner.  But the more I looked at the comments, the more it seemed that if Harmonize could sit off the pace, just a little, she'd be much the best.  As they hit the first turn she was quickly not only near the lead, but was in fact near the back.  The pace was quick, but not so quick that I thought she'd be double-digit lengths off the lead!  As the field approached the far turn she began to quicken and as they moved through the turn she must have passed half a dozen fillies in like three jumps so that as they spun out of the turn she was in full flight for the wire, some nine-or-ten wide, but gobbling up ground with each stride.  She collared the leader at the furlong pole and the two of them went at it through the final 16th but as they approached the wire Harmonize was edging clear without being asked for her all-out best run.  She looked very impressive and with a win over the course she has to be considered a Breeders' Cup contender!  I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for $20 to kick off the week!  Later in the evening I went to the Woodbine replays to check out how my picks had done.  In the opener, a maiden claiming event going two turns I thought that a 4/1 shot looked to have potential to upset the field as the lone MSW dropper.  But there just wasn't enough to convince me to bet.  Good thing, he ran dead last at 4/1 and the winner was a big surprise package paying $30!  In the second we were going a mile and a quarter with entry level older horses.  Johnny Beat was a legitimate favorite.  Not only did e have the best Beyer in his last TWO starts, but they were both earned at marathon distances.  He was probably too far back early last time out but still finished a best-of-the-rest second behind multiple winner O Wanderlust (my pick that day) and seven clear of the rest of the field as the 8/5 favorite.  Didn't look like a lot of pace to run at, but he looked best on paper.  I went with a minimum play.  He stalked the two leaders thee wide into the far turn as the field ran 3 x 3.  He moved up willingly through the turn to assume command and then had to dig down to hold off not one by two challengers late.  WINNER-WINNER, chicken dinner!  It didn't pay much (less than $10) but I'm now two for two on the day! 

 

In the third I liked Spiritofthenorth in spite of the fact that he'd lost for this same price tag in three-lifetime company last time out.  The move to Erico DaSilva was the key as he's a 32% winner for this barn.  Very wide into the far turn at 4/1 and hung through the lane crossing the wire sixth.  I passed the fourth, another maiden claimer for juveniles.  My top pick won and paid $9.40.....win some, lose some.  In the fifth I really liked Courtisinsession who was 7/5 in the program.  But his last two figures of 67 and 68 towered over the other two-year-olds with experience.  And the two first-timers came from barns that were not successful with those kind.  The crowd agreed and made him the 4/5 chalk.  He moved easily to challenge through the turn with all the momentum and I was sure I was looking at the easy winner, but as they straightened or home he simply ran evenly, fourth.  I passed the sixth as the only horse I liked was making his first start for a tag but he'd only won once in his last fifteen starts while the barn was 2-for-31 in all of 2015 - yikes!  But he won and paid over $12.  Sigh.   In the 7th handicappers were faced with a dilemma.  As I wrote in my analysis, I'd like to have a conversation with trainer Catherine Day-Phillips about her filly Peggy O.  In her debut she'd drawn off by daylight earning the comment "ridden out."  And in her last race she drew off in 2-lifetime allowance comment with the same "ridden out" comment.  But two back she was eleventh, beaten nearly ten leghts at the half mile pole and then was pulled up!  Which one would we get tonight?  I did like that the runner-up from her most recent was my "best" last Saturday and won for fun.  I decided to bank on her being the "good Peggy O" not the pulled-up version.  She went right to the front, which is not the prototype of a winner here at Woodbine.  But when the stalkers and closers began to make their move on her turning for home she hit another gear and ran away with ease!  Though she only paid $3.50 I still was cashing for close to $20 with my third win of the day. 

 

The finale tonight as a maiden claiming event going six furlongs.  Civic Duty was listed at 6/1 in the program and as I wrote, it wasn't as much about how good Civic Duty was, but the company she was facing here.  I her debut at this level she was 4th at every call while splitting a nine-horse field.  But her trainer, Rachel Halden showed a big 29% win rate with second time maidens.  The favorite had failed to produce when dropped from $50K to $25K and again when dropped to this $20K level, not once but twice.  Civic Duty sat mid-pack to the turn, accelerated five-wide into the stretch and collared the leaders at the 16th pole, then edged clear.  She took some money late, but still paid decent $7.50 so I cashed for nearly $20 again.  An excellent day with four wins from six selections and double-digit cash profit!