August 30

End Of A GREAT Week

(in spite of Am Pharoah loss)

End of August - 1st Month of Woodbine Project

The week ended with a very good day at the virtual races as I won with three of five selections - considerably better than I'd anticipated after learning early in the day that two of my four picks at Woodbine had scratched.  I knew I had plenty of time to get my picks in as I had passed the first two races at Woodbine, so Kim and I headed out to Coral Springs Nissan to turn in her 2012 Nissan Altima lease and pick up a new one.  We were promised we'd be "in and out" as we'd already done the preliminaries.  Well, the beginning went well.  And we were signing paperwork within 40 minutes.  Out of here in an hour I thought - that's great.  Then we waited, and waited for the car.  Several people from the dealership tried to help us find our sales rep and he was no where to be found.  Finally after waiting about 45 minutes here he was and he greeted us with, "I so apologize, but there's been an accident."  I was sorry to hear that but why was that our problem?  Then he continued as we walked out the door, "......with your new car...."  WHAT!!!????  Yes, he took full responsibility but the automatic door to fill up the car with gas didn't open and he drove right into it.  So he insisted we go to lunch while he got us a brand new car, his treat.  We said we didn't have a car and he said he'd get us one.  As we went inside we said we'd take the one that was supposed to be ours - it was already in front and running.  He said ok and switched the tags.  We told him we were running up to Panera Bread about a mile and a half away and he promised to have the paperwork done.  We chuckled about what a great story this would be.  Then we get there and as I turned off the engine I realized we didn't have the key and couldn't get the car back to the dealership!  Just then the sales rep called to ask about colors and I told him about the key.  "Oh my gosh, I'm coming right now" he replied.  So he got there with the key and asked if Kim liked the light chocolate color he was driving.  She said she preferred the stone blue she'd had, but that was fine.  We finished lunch and went back.  He met us and told us he'd explained to his boss what had happened and that the only car in the blue was a better, more expensive package.  The manager said to give it to us at the same price!  So the "accident" got us a $2,000 better car.  We didn't get out of there until three pm, but all's well that ends well! 

 

So, the racing.....as I said I'd passed the first two and then the third was a scratch and I'd passed on the fourth.  First bet was in the fifth where I liked Mechanical who was a Woodbine 40% Club play for trainer Norman McKnight and jockey Luis Contreras.....yes, the same combo that had produced Friday's $49 winner.  Mechanical made a big move on the turn and quickly opened up four.  A closer made it interesting late but never was a win threat.  A nice $5.60 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $30.  In the featured Belle Maone it was a small five horse field and Checkered Past was OH SO OBVIOUS.  Top jockey Eurico Da Silva on a two-time stakes winner who was 8/5-1-0 on the Toronto track.  Duh.  Sat off the three dueling leaders into the lane and then in spite of the small field found herself stuck with no where to run.  By the time he finally got out at the 16th pole the winner was too far in front - third.  That prime time investment would cost me.  I had two picks from other venues.  At Monmouth I liked Bradester in the Grade 3 Iselin Handicap.  He' won two straight here in graded company and looked like the controlling speed again.  But, unlike Untapable who should not have gone to the lead but did, he did not go to the lead like he should have.  Tried to rally against a lone speedster and he was 2nd at 6/5.  Grrrrrr.  But the good news was that while we were waiting, for the SECOND car, I had checked out the Saratoga feature and saw that Lady Shipman was the favorite in the Smart N Fancy turf sprint.  You may remember that I won the Blue Sparkler at Monmouth last weekend with Joya Real who had been favored against Lady Shipman in spite of that one's 5-for-6 record in her last.  And after beating Joya Real she'd come back to take a Saratoga Stakes.  Based on those facts and that Joya Real had won as much the best I didn't need anything else.  But I looked at Dave Liftin's comments anyway.....she was his BEST of the day!  She is a front runner but the rider wisely let her sit just off the pace from post six when Javier Castellano insisted on the lead with a price horse.  She took off on the turn and just was hand ridden to the wire in a dazzling display of speed.  AND she broke the track record! 

 

I had tripled the bet, so I got back over $20.  The final race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Torrey Pines from Del Mar.  Multiple graded stakes winner Stellar Wind simply outclassed this field.  The only question was would she get enough pace and have enough ground to close considering it was only a mile race.  No problem as she made a strong middle move to be in a pressing spot hitting the far turn and then just took off.  As announcer Trevor Denman often says, "they would have had to sprout wings to catch her!"  Easily best, wish I'd bet more.....still cashed for $15 on an obvious play. 

 

So for the day I was a strong 3-for-5.  The day ended one of the best week's of the summer for me: 

 

41 Selections / 14 wins 34%

Profit of nearly $100!

For the Month of August

266 Selections / 81 wins - 30.4%

For the four months of the season

646 Selections / 225 WINS - 35%

 

Week 4 Video Recap

 

 

August 29

Travers Day

American Pharoah Upset!

Yes, the mighty Pharoah was run own late in the shadow of the wire confirming my gut feeling that maybe this would not be his day.  I was uncomfortable when for during the weeks leading up to the Travers trainer Bob Baffert was reluctant to commit to the race.  But when Pharoah put in a sharp work last Sunday they entered him.  On paper he was obviously the best horse, but I still had this nagging feeling that maybe he wouldn't fire today.  I wanted to see how he did galloping over the track.  He glided smooth as can be, in front of 15,000 fans who came for the morning work - yes, to see a workout.  I considered my betting options, but in the end I was convinced that he'd run big because the owners were so adamant about not running unless he was at his best.  So here's how the day unfolded.

 

Because of the big card at Saratoga the first post was at 11:45 and my first bet was in the second at 12:18.  I had a bet at 12:45 in the opener at Gulfstream; followed by the third at Saratoga but then no play until the 3rd at Gulfstream at 1:42.  So that meant IF I went for the first bet I'd be on track from 11:30 until about 1:45 with three bets.  No thanks.  So I played the first three races online and headed out around 1 pm.  I was 4th in the Saratoga 2nd when I went against the Pletcher 2yo maiden - I know, what am I thinking?  Well, to be fair he'd already lost twice, but still, that just let him go off at a big 2/1 price.  I was 4th at 3/1.  Sigh.....At Gulfstream I was a non-threatening 5th.  But I had my first win of the day in the 3rd at Saratoga on the turf.  Tango Time had Javier Castellano and was 2/1.  He was behind a wall of five horses as they turned for home, but Castellano wins because he knows when to go and when to wait.  Instead of wasting valuable ground by swinging six wide he waited patiently.....inside the furlong marker a seam opened and he burst up the rail to draw off impressively!  I had doubled the bet so I was cashing for over $30!  I headed out to Gulfstream thinking I was off to a good start to a big day!  I got there about 15 minutes before post time so I did a recap video of Wednesday night's 40% results and yesterday's $200 profitable win - what a great day!  Then I headed out to the rail just in time to see Mystic Blue leave the field behind as he aired at 3/2 on the board.

 

Two in a row!  I was a disappointing third at 6/5 in Monmouth's third and then a trailing 5th at 7/2 in Saratoga's 5th on the turf.  Lost at Woodbine in the 4th at 6/5 and then it was time for what I hoped would be my first big score.  Untapable was facing off with recent nemesis Stopchargingmaria in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign.  I knew I'd get a fair price on the champion as she'd only won one race this year - the Grade 1 Apple Blossom when Kim and I were in Hot Springs - but her three losses, I thought, all came with valid excuses.  In her first start of the season she'd caught a sloppy track for the first time in her career.  A good second was a good try and she rebounded to take the Apple Blossom.  In her next, the Ogden Phipps at Belmont she was a sharp second when the winner was loose on an easy lead.  Her last, in the Grade 3 Shuvee here she'd dueled from gate to deep stretch with Saratoga "Horse-for-the-Course" Stopchargingmaria.  But Untapable never runs on the pace.  So in spite of 'Maria's 5/4-1-0 record at the Spa I saw her sitting off the pace as she does when running her best races and blowing by the field in an "A+" effort.  Sure enough she was 2/1 at post time and breaking from the outside in post 6 I KNEW Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez would let her settle early.  The gates opened and Velazquez took her right to the front.  Really?  I was right in that she outran 'Maria, putting her away at the top of the lane, but the pace duel was too much and she was caught by the winner who'd had the perfect trip right behind the speed duel, and by a deep closer who took advantage of the hot pace.  WOW.  On the Monmouth turf Super Spender was 3/2-1-0 in turf sprints and the 9/5 favorite.  Pressing the pace into the stretch and then she blew the final turn going six wide.  Evenly to the wire 6th.  FINALLY on the board when Moon rainbow won at Woodbine.  How the DRF listed her at 20/1 I'll never know as she left the gate as the 7/5 favorite. 

 

Dame Dorothy was my pick and the 7/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Ballerina going seven furlongs.  The Pletcher-trained filly was a perfect 4-for-4 at this unique distance but was between horses down the backstretch and never fired - 7th....wow.  First time starter Ginger Rush was bet down to 4/5 favoritism in the 6th at Gulfstream.  Led into the stretch under top rider Tyler Gafflione and then weakened to be third.  Conquest Calvary was the 3/1 runner-up at Woodbine in their 6th and Holy Boss was a disappointing third in the Grade 1 King's Bishop - Dave Liftin's "best" of the day.  Pure Cotton was 2nd at 9/5 in Gulfstream's 8th, but in the final race I watched live Private Zone put on a dazzling display of front-running speed when he wired the Grade 1 Forego. He paid a generous $5.20 and with my "prime-time" bet I cashed for over $50!  I headed for home with several tickets in my wallet.  In the 7th at Arlington, the Arlington-Washington Lassie for 2yo fillies Inconclusive was an even fifth at 5/2.  In Woodbine's 9th Playmetheblues was 4th at even money.  Euro import Messi was 6/1 in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer but was a disappointing 7th.  I couldn't bet the logical favorite Flintshire.  He'd just missed in the BC turf last November and had been facing top European turf runners.  But going back to 2013 he had ONE win.  As the favorite?  No thanks.  But as many turf writers pointed out the next day, the fact that this guy had not won in Europe and could STILL beat the best of the North American runners says how much the Euros have over us in grass racing. 

I finally got back in the winner's circle with the feature on the Jersey Shore.  The Grade 3 Violet looked like an even match up, but to me the fact that Photo Call had run four 90 Beyer figures in her six North American starts indicated that she had the best chance.  She was right with the leaders as they spun out of the turn and accelerated with a burst of speed to run away from the field at 2/1! 

 

I had tripled the bet so my winning ticket will be worth $45.  And finally it was time for the Travers.  Not only did Pharoah look best on paper but he was the lone speed.  Right to the front, but normally the stalking Frosted pressed him.  The fractions were not that fast and I had no worry that Frosted would last.  But as they moved down the backstretch it looked to me like American Pharoah was not just gliding along, but was working to maintain the lead.  It's a credit to his courage and ability that heading for home he put Frosted away, after being headed!  And at the 16th pole he looked in spite of not running his "A" game and being pressured he'd still win.  But in the shadow of the wire deep closer Keen Ice, with the best rider in North America Javier Castellano caught him late and paid $34. 

 

In the final graded stakes at Saratoga Coffee Clique was an even 4th at 9/2 - the winner, with Castellano AGAIN paid $14!  I closed the day with a win in the feature at Del Mar when Gimme Da Lute won the listed off El Cajon after winning two straight graded stakes.  There was an inquiry and an objection but his number stayed up.  I had a "prime time" investment, but his 1/5 odds only will get me back a little less than $25.

 

August 28

A H-U-G-E WIN

A "Week-Maker" Score At Woodbine

Yes, it was a gigantic win today that is the lead story.  And this is one of the great things I love about my hobby of handicapping - you just never know when you are going to hit a big one.......and as I frequently say, they pay just the same for a winner in a mid-afternoon claiming event on a Friday afternoon as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup winner!  Such indeed was the case on this Friday.  I had selections for Woodbine of course, but because it was the day before the Travers, Saratoga was running a NY-bred stakes laden program.  I looked through them and came up with three selections.  The first bet of the day was from Saratoga, in their opener, the Funny Cide Stakes for two-year-olds.  Sudden Surprise had romped in his debut, but that was over a sloppy track going shorter.  The question, at a short price was if he could repeat against fellow winners, on a fast track, going farther.  I thought he had enough of an edge to warrant a bet.  He dueled 3-wide into the stretch then kicked away as much the best and I had the first win of the day. 

 

He was a short 4/5 so with a minimum bet I cashed for less than $10, but hey....a win is a win.  I ran 5th in the 2nd at Woodbine at 5/2 and 6th at 7/2 in their 4th race.  It was nearing post time of the 6th when Kim called to tell me she was on her way home for the weekend.  So I muted the video and was talking to her as they ran.  In this race my top selection was Th Original Scotty for trainer Norman McKnight.  With jockey Luis Contreras signed on to ride this became a Woodbine 40% Club play - they win at a big 44% clip.  Scotty was also dropping in class and turning back from a two-turn route to this seven furlong sprint.  McKnight showed a 30% win rate with runners cutting back in distance and in claiming events.  All of these numbers gave him a good chance I thought, and his program odds of 12/1 were very tempting.  When I listed him as my pick I originally listed him as a minimum bet.  But I paused and thought, this could be a nice score if the Club angle works out.  So I doubled the bet and wrote he could be a "day-maker."  I was monitoring the odds before Kim called and he'd been double-digit odds leading up to post time.  So Kim's chatting away and the race is going on and I see that #9 is tracking the leaders at a nice 8/1 price.  But then I glance down at my sheet and realize I do NOT have #9, I have #8....where is he?  Near the back of the field as they hit the far turn.  But I now see Contreras getting busy on him.  He begins to pick off horses, but still is near the back as he field swings for home.  He has to go at least five wide, but he clearly has momentum and I can tell that he has a chance.  Oh this could be good I'm thinking, but I don't know his odds.  Scotty sweeps by and not only wins, but wins handily going away.  And as I am talking with Kim and watching the final odds come up.......23/1! 

 

OH MY!  I could hardly believe it, and THEN I realize I had doubled the bet!  The payoff comes up at $49.60 and I'll be cashing for nearly $250!  WOW!  You never know!  Minutes later as I hung up the phone they were off in the Seeking the Ante Stakes at Saratoga for two-year-old fillies.  She's All Ready was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite, and my top choice.  She romped very impressively.  I could not get over my big win, so the fact I ran 4th and 2nd in my final two Woodbine bets and 5th as the 1/2 favorite in Saratoga's Yaddo Stakes seemed like just a footnote on the day.  I had finished the day 3-for-8 with a profit of almost $200.  That is a very nice way to head into Saturday's big day of racing!

 

August 26

Woodbine Handicapping Project

Day 15

Tonight was a good night at the races thanks to the my "best" of the day which came in the night's finale with a post time of nearly 10:30 pm.  With Wednesday comes the evening racing program at Woodbine and on the eight-race card I had five selections.  I was anxious to start a new week of racing after having bookended last week with 0-for handicapping results.  This afternoon I met Jim Anderson, wife of my buddy from Cypress Bay Stephanie, for lunch.  Stephanie and Jim had become track pals several years ago when I'd meet them at Gulfstream.  And then a few years ago they joined our Florida Derby group.  They so enjoy the event that they have now become Florida Derby seat holders on their own right.  So last spring I was visiting Cypress Bay and ran into Stephanie.  I was telling her how much I enjoy when Jim and I meet at the races and she mentioned to me that he would probably be interested in one of my racing adventures, that I should talk to him.  So this past spring on Florida Derby Day I approached him and told him that I was going to start a Woodbine Handicapping Project this summer with the highlight being a trip to Toronto for Woodbine Mile Day in September - would he be interested in going?  He said he would be so I sent him all my trip details.  About two weeks ago he finalized his plans to join me (we are on the same flight and obviously staying together at the hotel.  So today we met for lunch to talk about the trip, handicapping in general and just catch up.  I told him about how I'd had a very good day last Saturday but was still inconsistent at Woodbine.....but that I'd be ready for our big day!  So this evening Kim and I watched TV until ten o'clock and as she headed to bed it was time for me to check the racing results, knowing full well that the races still had another half hour to go.  In the opener, a nw3x allowance test on the turf I thought it came down to Winning Rhythm or Overheard.  The latter had the better figures through her pp's but she was inconsistent in earning them.  Conversely, Winning Rhythm had earned consistent 87 numbers in three of her last four, had a sharp bullet work and was exiting a key stakes race.  As they turned for home 'Rhythm came up the rail while Overheard moved in the clear three wide.  She had the jump on me but I had the momentum.  Ran out of time and had to settle for second at 2/1 while the winner was the post-time favorite at 3/5.  In the second I liked Sky Marshal in this no-conditioned allowance race for two-year-olds.  I thought it was very interesting that the LONE runner in the field with a win was Feelin' Groovy, but he'd never been on the turf and the barn was 1-for-21 with such types.  My pick had debuted last time out in a six furlong turf dash and broked behind the field from the far outside.  He made a good late run to finish less that two lengths off the winner despite being 4-wide.  I thought the move inside an the stretch to seven furlongs was ideal.  Instead of stalking and utilizing a strong late run he broke sharply from the rail and took it to the field.  As they hit the far turn the rider seemed confident, but he'd been hounded every step of the way.  Through the turn he maintained his narrow advantage and as the field swung for home the stalkers and closers made their move.  But Sky Marshal had PLENTY left and he burst away from the field to win by daylight under a confident hand ride! 

 

WHOOOO HOOOO!  And with my double investment I cashed for nearly $20.  I didn't like anyone in the third, fourth, or fifth.  In the sixth, a nw3L event I liked the entry, but most especially liked the 1-Leading Wild who was a Woodbine 40% Club play for Norman McKnight with jockey Luis Contreras.  With both halves of the entry going (the other half was certain to be the front runner, and would set the table for my choice) the crowd pounded them down to a prohibitive 1/5 at post time.  1a-Dark and Intense set the pace and gave way as Leading Wild split horses.  But the longshot who had pressed 'Dark into the lane had the jump and wouldn't give in despite a solid finish from the favorite - second, again.  As this replay finished it was post time for the 7th a nw3L event with an optional claiming price.  Drink In My Hand was my pick as another Woodbine 40% Club play.  Trainer Josie Carroll is a "club member" when her horses make the third start off the layoff which was the case here.  'Drink was bet down to even-money favoritism and as they spun out of the turn he accelerated between horses and was quickly clear by two!  But my second choice, Goodoldhockeygame - who was exiting seven consecutive stakes events - was gaining momentum and collared him at the 16th pole. They dueled to the wire, but in the final 100 yards I was outfinished to be second for the THIRD time on the night.  Grrrrrr. 

 

So, the night's bottom line would be determined by the finale where it was my "best" with a triple investment on Executive Five.  I was surprised that he was NOT the favorite, but delighted to be getting a fair price - as high as 3/1 as they left the gate initially.  While it was somewhat worrisome that 'Five had a career mark of 47/6-13-5, I liked the fact that today he was starting for a new barn.  It was a plus that he was dropping from $20K and $30K races into tonight's $12.5K spot and got the top rider of the meet, Eurico DaSilva.  Finally, I thought it interesting that Executive Five was 5-for-15 at tonight's five furlongs while a mere 1-for-32 at all other distances.  This was way more evidence on the plus side than the record pulled down his chances.  The 6/5 favorite - who both Woodbine analysts liked because he appeared to be the lone speed - went right to the front while DaSilva had my pick stalking three wide.  Into the lane the favorite looked to be in control but at the furlong marker Executive Five began whittling away and inside the final 100 yards they were nearly even.  They hit the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!  As you can see in the official photo above I was J-U-S-T up in time to win.  I thought from the live running and the slo-mo replays that I'd won, but I wasn't convinced.  The best part was Executive Five was better than 2/1 at post time so I collected nearly $50 with the win.  That put me at an excellent 40% for the evening's races with a profit of nearly $20.  A great way to start off Travers Week where American Pharoah will make his next start!

 

 

August 19-23

The Woodbine Handicapping Project - Week 4

Days 11 - 14

The best part of the week was Saturday, the big day of racing as I had an excellent day at the races - virtually.  The rest of the week, not so much, as I was a combined 1-for-16 on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday with six seconds and three thirds.....arrrrgh!

So let's just focus on Saturday's races......

 

Saturday August 22Pacific Class Day Highlights

 

The day, from start to finish, just worked out great for me.  Before racing even started I looked at today's races a week ago and thought, "this could not have worked out better!"  Why?  Because on this Saturday Kim and I had tickets to Cirque du Soleil at the BB & T Center with a 4 pm show time.  So, obviously, I could not spend the afternoon at the races.  But the big racing for today was set to take place at Del Mar which didn't have a first race post time until 5 pm local time.  I had wondered how I would handle the day when the "big" and featured races were all going to be run after I would have left.  So this worked out great!  The opener was the first of seven selections at Woodbine.  The only good news about the first two days of the week was that the lone winner so far had paid $12 on Friday.  I am looking to have some good days and build some momentum for the big Woodbine Mile Day trip.  In the opener, a Maiden claiming event for juveniles, trainer Sam DePasquale is a Woodbine 40% Club member with runners in either maiden claiming events, or first off the claim.  The latter obviously applies here.  The hit rate for those has been 50% over the last two seasons.  Play With Passion, my selection had made his debut in a STAKES race, so today he was taking a huge class drop.  AND, the runner-up from that race, Ruth Less Blue had come back to score impressively (as my top choice).  As they hit the top of the stretch Play With Passion moved four wide and had dead aim on the game front-runner.....PHOTO finish!  But even the announcer called him the winner, though as you can see by the photo it was a lot closer than you might have expected!  In the second fromWoodbine Miss Metropolitan made an early move at 9/2, but than ran evenly through the stretch to finish fourth.  The second at Saratoga saw Cozy Kitten make a move up the rail in tight quarters, but couldn't get there in time, third. 

 

The fourth at Monmouth saw Durant sent away at 4/1, but after making a bold move three-wide, flatten out to finish sixth.  At Woodbine in ther 4th Charming Delilah was 5/2 and had dead aim on my second choice, Two To Tango when in mid-stretch she veered in and back out.  I figure that added at least a length if not two to the distance she was running which was significant because she finished second in a desperate photo - see at right (she's #2).  The 4th at Saratoga I liked Blame Dixie for Todd Pletcher on the turf.  Dueled to the stretch at 3/1 and I thought she'd break away......stopped n a dime and was 8th under the wire.  I did not download the past performances from Gulfstream.  I knew I'd be playing about half my races - online - before our outing to the show, and then watch the rest on replays.  But when I'd read this morning's paper I saw that Flutterby was listed as the 6/5 favorite in the paper for the featured Gold Mover Stakes.  That's a short price for a morning line at Gulfstream, so I went online.  EVERYONE picked him to win.  Then I read Ron Nicoletti's analysis of the race.  Flutterby was exiting a second behind multiple graded stakes winner Merry Meadow in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney Stakes to run in this $60K listed sprint.  AND he'd been working very well according to Nicoletti.  All this seemed more than enough evidence for me.  I added him to my list of selections.  He dueled to midway on the stretch and then took off under a hand ride as MUCH the best! 

 

He paid a fair $3.20, considering the relative talent of the field.  I had tripled the investment so I cashed for nearly $25.  Once the race was official it was time to head out to the show.  We had front row seats and it was a GREAT performance!  Afterwards we went to Outback for dinner - a great "date." 

 

I got online as soon as we got home to begin catching up on the races.  Won right away in the sixth with Exclusive Strike on the Jersey Shore turf who crushed the field at 7/5.  I had doubled the bet on this guy so again I would collect nearly $25 into my TwinSpires account.  In the 6th at Woodbine Cristina's Halo was a huge 11/1 and rallied for a good 4th.  I was second with my "best" at Saratoga where Life Imitates Art, a 2yo maiden, was on the turf for Chad Brown.  He had been carried out five wide in his debut and looked like a standout in here.  The crowd agreed and sent him off at 4/5.  He was in complete control of the race, clear into the stretch.....caught in the final strides.  Mist was my pick in the 7th at Woodbine, stalked the leaders at 9/5, but was outfinished, fourth.  Missed again at Woodbine when Mississippi Delta was 9th, ouch, at 2/1 in the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen.  My second choice Don't Leave Me was ultra-impressive in victory.  This seems to happen ALOT at Woodbine where my "other" pick wins :(  At Monmouth Irish You Well was clearly the class of this allowance test AND had a 4/3-0-0 record on the track.  Sent off at 7/5 with top rider Paco Lopez on board he rallied from mid-pack with dead aim on the longshot leader, couldn't catch him, second.  WOW.  FINALLY a winner, and at Woodbine - Horray - at last.  Scotty's Model was the second Woodbine 40% Club play of the day for trainer Norman McKnight.  He wins at  43% rate when Luis Contreras rides.  Right to the front, the 5yo never was threatened. 

 

AND paid a generous $7.80, so I cashed for nearly $40.  The eleventh at Monmouth was their feature, the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks.  As I looked over the field  did NOT like the favorite, Todd Pletcher's Eskenformoney.  I'd seen her run and win at Gulfstream against a REALLY weak maiden field.  Since then in stakes races I'd been against her and she'd yet to win.  But finding the winner wasn't easy.  I settled on Delightful Joy who was making her stakes debut.  I thought it showed confidence that Chad Brown would ship to Monmouth to run in a stakes when there were plenty of allowance races available at Saratoga.  That top rider Paco Lopez took the mount was an added plus.  She made a big move into the lane and sprinted clear late to win going away. 

 

The price was a nice $8.20, but I'd only invested the minimum so I only cashed for a little over $20.  The last race I watched in this "set" of races was the Grade 1 Alabama from Saratoga.  I liked Kentucky Oaks heroine Lovely Maria.  She pressed the leader to the stretch, but faded to be sixth at 3/1.  The winner was ridden by top jockey Javier Castellano at 6/1.  Wow.  I took a break to watch some TV programs with Kim while the Del Mar races got underway.  A little after 9 pm Kim had had enough television so I returned to the race replays.  In the 3rd at Del Mar I liked Another House in a Maiden Special turf event with Gary Stevens riding for Tom Proctor & Glen Hill Farms.  A solid second at 7/2.  Then it was time for my last three selections, the three graded stakes on the card.  The first was the Grade 1 Pat O'Brien.  There was next to no speed in here so I went with Appealing Tale.  But, instead of being loose on the lead he was hounded into the stretch where he separated from the field briefly but was quickly collared......I thought for sure he'd give in, but he battled back bravely and even edged clear again late!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

 

Paid fair 6/5 odds in a four horse field on my double investment, so I collected over $20.  In the 8th, the 11-furlong Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap on the turf I thought the race was wide open and I did NOT like the favorite.  I took a shot with 5/2 third choice Big John B who was a perfect 2-for-2 over the course.  AND he'd won this last year after winning back-to-back prep races.  Coming into today he'd won back-to-back races off the shelf.  As they hit the far turn he was dead last behind a slow pace and I thought my chances of winning were slim and none.  But then he made a HUGE move and blew by the field to win! 

 

TWO STAKES WINS IN A ROW!  The day would come down to how my BET of the DAY would run.  When Kim and I were in Arkansas, on Apple Blossom Day I had be $50 to win on Beholder who was making her first start of the year.  She romped without ever being asked.  She came back in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes and didn't take a deep breath just cantering home by daylight.  In the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch last time out she looked to be facing a deeper field - nope.  Galloped around the track without being asked to run.  So today, conservative trainer Richard Mandella had entered her against the boys in the Grade 1, $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic.  Not only facing boys for the first time, but also trying a mile and a quarter for the first time....AND trying to be the first filly or mare EVER to win this prestigious signature race!  She sat the perfect trip in third, in the "garden spot" to the far turn and then without Stevens asking she blew by the leaders - in an instant he went from third to three in front.  The boys made their move and closed to within two heading for home but Stevens simply shook the reins and the epic demolition was on.  You have to watch the video replay above to truly appreciate how devastatingly easy the win was. 

 

I probably would have bet more if I'd been betting live, but I was in for $30 to win.  The crowd let her go at 2/1 odds, just insane.  I cashed for $90 to top a 40% winning day with a profit of nearly $50!

August 16

Day 9 Woodbine Handicapping Project

THRILLING Start.....But That's It

The day started out with a heart-thumping photo finish and then was much of the same from Saturday's results as the third week of the project came to a conclusion.  In the opener, a Maiden Special for 2-year-olds I liked Tizarunner.  He appeared as though he would be a short priced favorite, but still just too much to like in this seven furlong test.  He was a $35K grandson of champion Tiznow who had made his career debut in the Colin Stakes.  More impressive is that he was well played at 5/1 in that field of eight and was a good third behind two colts who'd already scored.  The big 80 Beyer he earned along with the drop into a spot with maiden runners was certain to draw attention at the windows.  He sat midpack behind a wall of runners through of the turn and then made his move. As they came out of the turn he was picking off runners five wide with dead aim on the leader.  At the furlong marker he collared the leader and appeared ready to run away with the race, but the front runner would have none of that.  The two of them went at it through the final 16th of a mile with each stride and bob of the head exchanging the lead.  On the wire I couldn't tell.  I was hopeful, but as I watched the slow-motion replays it was still unclear.  It was all dependent exactly where the wire was.  And as the photo below show, it could not have been much closer.......

 

The 4/5 odds resulted in a payoff of just under $20 to kick off the day!  But that was it.  Bright Light was 4th at 5/1 in the 5th, a MSW for 2yo; in the Gr 2 Sky Classic Aldous Snow (9/2) was an even 6th.  In the 8th, ion's Bay 2as a non-threatening 5th at 7/2;  In the $500K Breeders' Stakes Conquest Boogaloo was a juicy 5/1 but was dead last as they turned for home.  He was absolutely flying, but was too late to catch the impressive winner - my second choice - second.  So for the day only a single win from five selections.  The fourth week kicks off with another Wednesday night program.  The highlight of the upcoming weekend appears to be Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar on Saturday with champion mare Beholder taking on the boys.  Appears like a good move to me - she's been dominant against her own kind, yet to be asked to run AND the older handicap horses on the west coast appear average at best.

August 15

Arlington Million Day

After a strong Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday I had high hopes for today's races in spite of missing out on a chance to be at Saratoga.  But instead it was very much like last weekend - a lot of disappointments.  From my thirty-nine selections I only cashed on seven winners.  Even lower pct. than last week.  The only thing "better" this week was that I was second or third on a dozen selections, so I was much more "in the running" thinking I might win than last week.  So, like last week let's focus on the good......

 

The first win of the day was in the first stakes race of the day, and from Woodbine as a part of my Woodbine Handicapping Project.  Ruth Less Blue had debuted in a stakes race!  And had run a good second in spite of being forced five-wide into the stretch.  Came back to dominate maidens.  Her two Beyer figures (69, 71) were the best two figures in the field.  She looked much the best, and if those paired figures indicated a move forward today, it was bad news for the rest of the field.  My second choice was a WO 40% Club play in Conquest Daddyo.  Ruth Less Blue went right to the front and was never threatened.  The only moment of "concern" was when she suddenly ducked in towards the rail in mid-stretch before straightening out as Conquest Daddyo made up ground to close the gap late.  Wishing she'd been better than 4/5, but I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30. 

 

On the Arlington Million card I had TWO stakes wins from the four big graded events, and both were nice prices.  In the Grade 3 American St. Leger Lucky Speed was my choice.  What drew me t him was that he was (a) a European import with a Group 1 win on his resume (b) he'd been shipped to North America to run in the Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woobine earlier in the summer, so he had had time to become acclimated.  IF the connections were using that as a prep for the bigger money today, I was in good shape.  He was listed at 5/1 and I was hopeful of a price.  He sat in third to the far turn, when my second choice, another Euro import at an even better price - Panama Hat - made his move to the front.  But Lucky Speed began moving at the same time and the two of them matched strides from the furlong marker to inside the 16th pole.  And then Lucky Speed edged clear, I think because of having a race under his belt.  The price was a generous 3/1, so I cashed for $40! 

 

The other Arlington winner came in the Grade 1 Secretariat for 3-year-olds.  I really liked Aidan O'Brien's Highland Reel.  He was a multiple Group 2 winner in Europe and had a close second in Group 1 company.  On any year that would make him a top choice here in the Secretariat against the North American stars.  But this year in particular, the best we had to offer was a runner who'd won two in a row at 9/1 and 10/1.  As they were walking up to the gate it started to rain; then it started to rain hard; and by the time they were hitting the backstretch it was POURING.  But Highland Reel had burst out of the gate and was uncontested on the lead.  When the first fraction of :24.2 was up I knew I was sitting good, unless the ground had softened.  The half mile was in a slow :50.0, I knew there would be no catching him.  Still, as they spun out of the turn, the field seemed to be getting to him.  But the rider had not even asked yet and when he did he EXPLODED away from the field to cruise by multiple lengths......AND SET A COURSE RECORD!  He paid a nice $6.80 and I'd gone "prime time" on him so I was cashing for nearly $70!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

 

Less than a half hour later I cashed on my fourth stakes winner of the day.  The feature at Monmouth was a five-furlong turf sprint, the Blue Sparkler.  Twice I've seen Lady Shipman run, and she is one fast & talented turf sprinter.  In Monmouth's Klassy Briefcase Stakes in July Lady Shipman had won, BUT she had not been the favorite.  That had been Joya Real.  I looked up Lady Shipman's pp's and going into that feature she'd won six of seven, including the two I'd seen.  Why was she NOT the favorite?  She won that day and has since won a stakes at Saratoga.  So to me, the fact that Joya Real had been favored over Lady Shipman weighed a lot.  It was also a plus that Joya Real's name was scattered through most of the rest of the field, having beaten them already.  As they ran through the turn she was mid-pack but beginning to move while getting an inside run.  Could she get out?  As they turned for home, STILL nowhere to run!  Finally a seam, but was it too late?  Watch the video highlight below, man what a burst!  Ran right by them and I had another winner! 

 

The only thing I'll add about the rest of the day is that I can take some consolation that had Tonasah won the Grade 2 Adirondack, Professor Palmer won the Delaware feature, and Euro Charline won the Grade 1 Beverly D I'd have an ENTIRELY different spin on today's day at the races.  As you can see below, they were ALL in front turning for home and the combined lost winnings mere more than $225.  Ouch - I don't care how you cut it, that much money in just three near-misses has to hurt.  One more day of racing - Woodbine's Sunday card tomorrow with two big stakes events!

 

August 15: Arlington Million Day

Stakes Wins

 

 

August 14

ANOTHER Big Day At Woodbine

Sooooo Close to a HUGE Day

A day of mixed news......the good news, it was a great day at Woodbine; the bad news, I COULD have had a huge day if my runners leading into the stretch had held on; the mixed reviews news - I should have been at Saratoga today, but instead I was home in Ft. Lauderdale!  Let's start with the latter story......For two months I've anticipated spending Arlington Million Day at Saratoga while Kim is away on a reunion in Pennsylvania.  So at 4 am this morning I was up and headed to Ft. Lauderdale International.  I checked in and was sitting at the gate about 40 minutes before boarding.  I had bought the paper and I read it; then I checked e-mail and Facebook on my phone and was waiting for the boarding process to begin.  I was board with about 15 minutes before we began boarding so I pulled out my phone and even though I was pretty certain the Bed & Breakfast I was staying at in Glen Falls was on the way from the airport to Saratoga, I decided to double-check.  I opened Google on my phone and typed in, "Buffalo Airport to Glenn Falls, NY."  The first thing I noticed was that apparently Glen Falls has only one "n" but I looked at the map anyway.  It was a big odd that the map showed I'd be traveling west-to-east and not north to south, but maybe it's the way the map is displayed and I dismissed that.  I did not see Saratoga on the map and then the most "interesting" thing was the description said that it would be a 4 hours and 47 minute trip.  Now I KNEW that wasn't possible because it's only about 40 minutes tops from the airport to the track and I know the B & B was only about a half an hour away.  So I figured either something was badly wrong here, or more likely, I had the wrong "Glen Falls."  So I re-typed in the search "Buffalo Airport to Saratoga Race Track."  Now I was certain there was a problem.  The highlighted route was again west-to-east, and worse, the time to drive was listed as 5 hours and 27 minutes.  WHAT is going on?  Then it occurred to me - the airport close to Saratoga is Albany, not Buffalo!  Wait - am I thinking that I'm going to Buffalo and I'm really going to Albany, or worse.....oh no, did I book the wrong trip?  I was hesitant to look, but I pulled out my second boarding pass......sigh - Buffalo.  So, I'll land at 11:45 and by the time I drive to Saratoga it's 6 pm and the races are over for the day?  I COULD do this.  Then the really bad news - my return flight leaves at 5:45 am on Sunday, to make the trip on time I'd have to leave BEFORE midnight!  OK, that won't work.  I paused and then told myself, you know this is a bust, time to head home.  As I started walking I remembered that Southwest allowed you to re-book using your funds if you cancelled, but you had to cancel.  So I went to the desk and simply said, "I'm scheduled to leave in about twenty minutes but need to cancel my flight, can I do this?  And can I rebook at a later date?"  The two guys working the desk, said they were sorry I had to cancel, sure they could do that, and they hoped everything was ok.  I said thanks, it was, thinking all the while how stupid I am.  When I got back home I called Expedia and the auto-recording to my cancellation request for the Bed & Breakfast was that it was too late, I was out the more than $300.  So I got a "live person" and they told me they would talk to the manager of the place and work for me.  Later in the afternoon I talked with "Ann" of Expedia and she convinced the manager of the B & B to refund the full amount.  It was ironic because on the way to the airport I was thinking that I had just been travelling three weeks ago and it seemed like I didn't "need" to be on another trip so soon.  But I then thought, no - you'll enjoy being there and afterwards you'll be glad you went.  So I wasn't nearly as disappointed about not making the trip as I was that the problem/fault had been all mine.  My first truly "senior moment" I guess.

 

So I spent the day at home and played the races on the computer.  It was a great day at Woodbine as I won with two of the six selections and both were juicy payoffs.  In the opener I had 3/2 favorite Conquest Streetkid.  He dueled with the co-favorite into the lane, and then that one ran away to win - second.  In the second  liked Dancing Ashley.  None of the Woodbine public handicappers seemed to agree with me so I got a generous 5/2 price.  She sat behind four dueling leaders until the top of the lane, swung out wide to be in the clear and blew by to score going away! 

 

The $2 payoff was $7.60 so I cashed for nearly $40!  Nice way to start the winning off!  In the third at Woodbine I had Conquest Soprano in a 2yo MSW event.  Event money favorite she stalked the leader under a confident ride, just cruised to the front like a good thing.  But then here came a rallying runner from off the pace and she had no response....second again.  I picked up my first win of the day at Saratoga in the third, a non-winners of three lifetime sprint with In Haste.  Two runners were dropping in class, but I liked David Jacobson's horse. I've seen many times horses for him do this.....claimed for $35K and then moved up to a $50K 3L spot.  Ran a good fourth, today he dropped the horse into a $20K 3-lifetime event with winning on his mind.  She was 2/1 on the board when the gates sprung open and immediately she was squeezed between horses, had to take up and was last.  Really?  But as the leaders dueled through the far turn I could see jockey Cornelio Velasquez asking for run and Dancing Ashley was picking off horses.  Into the lane five wide she had all the momentum and blew by in mid-stretch to WIN!  The payout was $6.90 so I would be collecting nearly $20 on my second win of the day!  I passed the 4th at Woodbine and was third at 2/1 at Saratoga in the 4th when my second choice wired the field and I could not catch the winner.  The fifth at Woodbine was a non-winners of three lifetime sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs.  Ezzthetic was a Woodbine 40% Club play because trainer Norman McKnight shows a 44% win rate over the last two seasons when he gets Luis Contreras to ride.  In looking at the way the race set up it looked like there were four who would want the lead.  I thought with the outside draw Ezzthetic would be able to sit just off the leaders and have the best trip, then with the Club angle have enough left to hold off the closers.  Well, he was being ignored by the bettors throughout the wagering, so I was hoping my Woodbine Handicapper "inside information" would lead to a price play.  In the pre-race analysis, the studio analyst for Woodbine talked how Ezzthetic had been a front runner, but that a few races back they had put blinkers on and since then he'd been an off-the-pace runner.  He continued by saying he felt he had to be given a chance to run down the dueling front runners today.  I thought, so much the better for me!  They loaded into the gate, and as the gates sprung opened Ezzthetic BURST out of the gate and in the first two jumps was clear on the lead by two lengths.....so much for rating off the leaders!  Right to the front, and what I like to see best from an early leader, the rider was not asking for any run, the horse was completely relaxed.  As they headed down the backstretch to the far turn he was chased by a 16/1 longshot; in third was another price horse, and then outside of him was the odds-on favorite.  I'm in a good spot, let's see how this plays out on the turn I thought.  I've said many times, the key to a front-running victory is three-fold:  (1) obviously you have to get the lead; (2) through the turn you have to maintain the advantage without asking for any run from your horse; and (3) you have to have a burst into the stretch to distance yourself from the closers.  As they moved midway on the turn Contreras STILL was not asking for Ezzthetic to kick on with it, and more importantly I could see that the rider of the favorite had already gone to the whip and they were NOT making up ground.  Uh oh, looking GOOD!  They turned for home, and after about a 16th of a mile Contreras asked and Ezzthetic gave him a burst to separate away from the field.  Inside the final furlong the closers were making up ground, but they were too late - I WIN!!!!!!! 

 

The final odds were a big 9/2 on the board and the payoff was a cool $11.  With my double investment I was cashing for $55 and I am having a very good day!  But the rest of the day at Woodbine did not yield any winners.  In the sixth I passed.  In the seventh Best Country was FLYING down the lane and it was a head-bobbing finish.  At first glance I was sure I'd lost.  In the first slow-motion angle I wasn't so sure, but I thought maybe I'd lost.  In the second slow-motion angle I thought maybe, just maybe I might have won, or at least dead-heated for the win.  Then the official photo came up, see it on the left.  SOOOO close.  That would have brought home close to $20 more.  In the 8th I had no bet. And in the finale I had Jacks Escarpment.  He was 10/1 early on, but left the gate at 7/2.  Much like Ezzthetic he went right to the front, clear into the lane, had the burst, looked home free....here came the late runners....just not enough to hold on, so close.  So for the day at Woodbine I was 2-for-6, a nice 33% and I had collected $93 on $45 bet, a BIG Day!  But what cost me were my picks at Saratoga and my lone play at Arlington.  Let's start with the Chicago race.  I had picked Nevrmesswithrichie to wire the opener there and thought I might get a good price as he was listed at 10/1 in the official program.  But I wrote in my analysis that I thought he would be lower at post time and if he was well-bet I'd up the bet.  Then I checked out the Brisnet picks for the day.  It's been my experience this summer that when they list their two "BEST BETS" of the day, especially when I also like them, they nearly always win.  There it was, the first "BEST" of the day, Nevermesswithrichie.  He was hammered at the window, but went off at a fair even-money price.  Right to the front, coasting into the stretch....nailed late.  Sigh.  The one that hurt the most was with MY "Best" of the day, the featured Grade 2 Lake Placid from Saratoga for 3yo fillies on the turf.  Miss Temple City had run a sharp race against champion Lady Eli four back, then had been an emphatic winner for me on the Black-Eyed Susans undercard.  Off that she went to Royal Ascot in Great Britain and was only beaten two lengths by the best fillies in Europe.  I had read her trainer Graham Motion said she was "doing great" and I thought she was a good  class play in a short field, especially at the 4/1 program odds.  As they spun out of the turn she was a juicy 3/1 and she cruised to the lead.  I did not like the favorite, who was a closer, and now she started her move.  But I had the jump and was in front by daylight.  Led into the final sixteenth, but just couldn't last - second again.  That one hurt.  On the day I had not one, not two, not three, but FOUR runners who led into the lane and got caught, finishing second. 

 

You add up the $150 I missed with those four and the nearly $20 I missed with Bear Country and I COULD have could have had a GIGANTIC day at the races.  If even two of the leaders held on it would have been a nice winning day.  Ahhhh, the races.  Gotta love it.  I'll be at Gulfstream for the Million Day card tomorrow instead of Saratoga - wow.

August 12

Night Time Racing At Woodbine

A BIG Night Of Handicapping

Early this morning I took Kim to the airport as she heads out on her next adventure, a reunion with middle school pals from the Tehran (Iran) American School.  For me, I had handicapping for the upcoming weekend at Saratoga, lunch with a Cypress Bay pal, and then first post for Woodbine was at 6:45 pm.  When the dust settled - or should I say the poly fibers - I had another successful outing at the Toronto track.....feeling more & more confident about the Woodbine Mile adventure in September!  And let's start there with today's journal.....it was reported today that it is VERY likely that two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan will make his long-anticipated return to the races in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.  I am so excited!  I was hoping this would be the case, and trainer Charlie Lopresti said as much yesterday.  So, on to the racing! 

 

In the opener, a 7 furlong claiming event for a price tag of $8K, Miss Victoria looked like a standout to me.  She had been on a roll with three straight victories here after spending the winter in So Florida and hitting the board in four out of five vs. better.  Her initial start north of the border came at tonight's seven panel distance and she won for a $6K tag as the even money choice.  Three weeks later she scored an emphatic victory, again at this distance, while moving up in class to face this $8K level of runners.  She topped off the trifecta with another decisive score going seven furlongs besting $10K runners.  Last time out her connections tried the turf where she'd failed to hit the board in four previous tries.  As with most tracks it's important to understand the class structure of turf vs. main track racing.  For example at Gulfstream, you can sprint for $10K or less, but the lowest level on the turf is at $15K to $20K.  The same is true at Woodbine, so when you see Miss Victoria finishing well beaten for a $32K tag it wasn't nearly as big a jump as you'd imagine.  Still, she showed speed, on the grass vs. better than tonight's $8K field.  It looked to me like she would be a dominant winner.  But, I was reluctant to go "all in" with a wager considering the typical inconsistency of low level runners.  I discovered about 45 minutes prior to post time that I could watch a live feed from Woodbine on their website, which made the evening much more enjoyable.  As the two hosts previewed the night's races, I checked out Woodbine handicapper Jim Bannon's picks for the night and saw that Miss Victoria was his BEST of the night.  Good enough for me to click the bet up one notch, so I tripled the bet.  After hovering around 8/5 in the early betting, Miss Victoria was pounded late and dropped down to 2/5 as they loaded into the gate.  Fortunately she floated up a little before they started.  She sat just off the early pace, moved 4-wide in hand on the turn and then accelerated home as MUCH the best!  WHOOO HOOO, 1-for-1 on the night!  

 

Like New York racing, the Woodbine track rounds the betting up to the nickel rather than the dime so the payoff was a click higher at $3.10 for a $2 play, and I would cash for nearly $25.  In the preview show for the night I was intrigued in the analysis for race two.  It was an off the turf affair and I had planned to pass the race.  On the screen they listed the picks for all of the handicappers - and for the Toronto races that is over half a dozen - and EVERY one of them picked #2 Obeah Woman to win.  I thought perhaps I'd add the pick.  She was also hammered down to 3/5 at post time and in the end I decided against the play.  I had not liked anyone prior to the race and I still wasn't that confident.  I thought it was a wise move when the second choice opened up in mid-stretch, but Obeah Woman wore her down in the final strides to score.  Lost out on six bucks, whatever.  In the third it had been scheduled for a six furlong sprint on the grass, but again we were now on the main track.  My pick was a WO 40% Club play and it looked like Flashy Margaritta had a decent chance to steal this sprint on the front end.  There were several speed types in the race but trainer Ralph Biomonte has won at the required level over the last two years for this particular ownership group.  I liked that he had won a stakes here in 2014 on the front end, on the main track and at post time he was a juicy 7/1.  None of the analysts gave him a chance, but I thought he was the speed of the race.  He burst out of the gate and was quickly in front.  He was challenged through the turn, but turned that one away and as heads turned for home he was three clear.......I envisioning a $16 payoff or better!  The tepid post-time favorite was rolling from the back but it looked like I had enough left, until the final fifty yards when 'Flashy just ran out of gas.  At best-of-the-rest second......great handicapping, but no reward.  I passed the fourth, a maiden claimer sprint.  In the fifth it was another maiden claiming event, but this time going two turns, nine furlongs on the main.  Benzin Benz was coming off back-to-back solid finishes and was lightly raced.  Two things bothered me - first, the two best efforts on his pp's were on the grass and tonight we were on the main track where (secondly) his speed figures were some 20 points below his turf Beyers.  However sometimes in handicapping, finding the winner is NOT just about who's the best runner, but it's more of "who's the best of THIS group of runners."  Such was the case here where the second choice in the program was an 0-for-14 maiden with a rider that's 1-for-19 on board for a barn that's 5-for-62.  I have to like my chances.  The crowd saw it the same way and Benzin Benz was the favorite, but at a fair 9/5 price (especially fair considering he'd been 8/5 in the program).  He made his move on the turn and seemed to have all the momentum, but as they turned for home he reverted to his old ways of hanging and I thought it was all over.  But in the final 16th it was like a light went on and he surged with a new-found burst of speed and was J-U-S-T up in time to win! 

 

It wasn't so much the price or how much I would cash for - especially with the minimum investment - it was being RIGHT and getting my second win on the card - HORRAY!  The sixth was the night's feature, the Ontario Jockey Club Stakes and for a mid-week, night time card it was a terrific stakes event.  On the rail it looked like former graded stakes winning speedster Essence Hit Man had a great shot to wire the field as the lone speed, but he'd have to fend off a challenge from Speightsong who had run a huge race last time out in narrowly missing in the Achievement Stakes.  He looked to be tracking the speedy Hit Man and get first run on the very likely favorite, 2014 Canadian Sprint Champion Calgary Cat.  And here, in spite of the pace scenario, is where I landed.  He had been my choice in the aforementioned Achievement despite coming off a career-worst effort.  It was just too bad an effort to be believed AND he'd fired three straight bullet works.  He won with a big rally down the middle of the track in a sensational final time (1:08.4) to win for the eighth time here sprinting (14/8-1-0).  AND this improved his record at the distance to five wins from seven starts.  Since that win, Calgary Cat had fired two more bullets and his most recent work was a second-best maintenance move.  I had mixed feelings when with less than ten minutes to post Essence Hit Man was hovering as the even-money favorite and the studio analysts remarked that the local timer had been on record as saying he'd looked every bit as good as he had while running regularly.  But to me, the long layoff - he'd not been seen since running in a Grade 2 event in November - 2013 - was too much to overcome when he'd have to face the late kick of Calgary Cat.  As much as I worried the money on Hit Man indicated he might be more ready that I thought, I was smiling at the prospects of getting 9/5 on my BET of the night.  By post time the crowd had fallen into line with the way I saw the race and Essence Hit Man had floated up to 2/1 while Calgary Cat was 4/5.  Right out of the gate I was concerned because indeed Essence Hit Man was loose on the lead.  And when the opening quarter was a "leisurely" :23 and change I thought uh-oh.  And while the time was slow, he had two runners just off his flank and I thought about what I have heard and read about front-runners - it's not just about how fast you are going, but it is also about if you have any kind of pressure.  So as Calgary Cat sat in fourth just two off the leaders I was thinking that the pressure would combine with the long layoff to make him vulnerable late.  Well, there was no reason to worry.  In spite of coasting into mid-stretch with a clear lead, when Calgary Cat's rider gave him the signal he just inhaled the field and won EASILY. 

 

He paid nearly even money and my prime-time play netted me almost $40 on my third win of the night!  WHOOOO HOOOOO squared :)  I had one more pick, in the seventh where Royal Calvados was a nice 4/1 play in a MSW route.  Near the back from the get-go, eighth.  For the night I finished a superb 3-for-5 with one second - that's 60% winners and 80% in the money my friends - and a profit of over $25 in spite of my three winners being sent off at 1/2, 9/5, and 4/5.  Very please with a great evening of racing!  Tomorrow there is no racing, but I'll be very busy analyzing the Arlington Million card for Saturday, as well as the races from historic Saratoga where I will be in my racing finest, and of course the races from here at Woodbine.  Looking forward to a big adventure!