August 1

The Woodbine Handicapping Project Begins!

Today marks the beginning daily handicapping of the Woodbine meet which will be highlighted by a visit to Saratoga in two weeks, on Arlington Million Weekend, and even bigger - a trip to Woodbine for their Woodbine Mile Day card in mid-September.  The project will culminate with the Breeders' Cup, the final weekend of October when I meet Keith in Lexington for the two-day championship event.  The project could not have gotten off to a better start when in the opener today Good Deed Indeed was sent off at miniscule odds of 2/5 and was NOT my pick.  Sparkles Girl was my choice as a Woodbine 40% Club play.  Trainer John Charalambous has two angles that qualify him for Club status - when either Omar Moreno or Emma Jayne Wilson are on board and with big odds.  Today Wilson was on board, qualifying as a play.  In addition the debut filly was coming off of a series of works dating back to February with a near bullet work on July 5.  Charalambous showed a 14% win rate with first time starters and with 2yo at 18% but BOTH had huge return on investment figures ($15.04 for the former, $10.19 for the latter).  The chalk led into the lane, but Wilson took her filly outside and she blew by to score paying a juicy $10.80.

 

The rest of the card at Woodbine was not nearly as good.  In the second Rebel Lioness was the second choice at 9/5 and she rallied from last, too late - 4th.  In the 4th Zipline was a big 6/1 as another Woodbine 40% Club play.  Dueled into the stretch before fading to 6th.  In the sixth, Endogeny tracked the leaders, led into the stretch at 2/1, but was outfinished - 3rd.  And in the featured Victoriana Stakes the 2014 winner, Regal Conqueror was 5/1 and was never a threat when a distant 8th.  Because we had a full house of company AND it was my birthday, I did not have a full slate of races.  I had handicapped the Mountaineer card because today was West Virginia Derby Day, and I had the feature from Del Mar, the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch.  My first pick at Mountaineer was in their Juvenile Stakes, but my selection (the 6/5 morning line) scratched.  So my first live bet there came in the third, the West Virginia Secretary of State Stakes.  I liked Keep Crossing  So did everyone else as he was the prohibitive 3/5 choice.  He sat outside of horses and then finished with a big kick to win as much the best.  I only had the minimum so I cashed for less tha $10.  I missed in the 4th, the Mountaineer Juvenile Fillies when Adhara was a belted 4th at 4/1 odds.  But I finally cashed a ticket on Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion Work All Week in the Senator Robert C. Byrd Sprint.  After going undefeated in dirt sprints in 2014, capped with a win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, I had backed him at Churchill this summer, but he was second best.  On the day we left for Europe I'd liked his chances in the Grade 2 Smile at Gulfstream, but he was second again.  Today he just outclassed his non-graded stakes foes and wired the field in hand.....much the best. 

 

But everyone saw this coming and he was a very short 1/5.  My double investment netted less than $15.  I came right back in the featured Grade 2 West Virginia Derby with the best paying winner of the day.  This surprised me because when I looked at the field, without even handicapping I thought that Todd Pletcher's Madefromlucky was such the obvious choice.  I was very surprised that he was listed at 3/1 in the program, and even more surprised when he was 9/2 with ten minutes to post time.  I was counting up my winnings as they approached the gate and he clicked down to 4/1.  They were loading in and he was 7/2.  C'mon, I thought, get'em in the gate before he's the favorite.  Luckily they left the gate before he became the favorite, but he clicked down two more notches to be 5/2 as they hit the first turn.  He sat off the pace to the far turn when jockey Joe Bravo asked him to run.  He made his move 5 wide an while he didn't catch the leaders with a powerful swooping move, I felt like he would win from the moment he began to target the front runners.  Inside the 16th pole he edged clear and was ridden out to the wire without being asked for an all-out effort. 

 

The payoff of $7.20 led to a nice payday of almost $40!  The final bet of the day was the featured event from Del Mar.  It was the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch.  Beholder had made short work of rival Warren's Veneda in their last meeting despite it being billed as a "face-off."  And I'd read since that trainer Richard Mandella felt that Beholder was not 100% that day.  I was hopeful that I'd get a somewhat fair price on Beholder but no one was buying any of that nonsense and she was 1/5 at post time.  Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens managed her perfectly and she drew off powerfully as TONS the best.  I had a prime time play on her, but the $2.60 return got me just over $25. 

 

Still, the results of the first day of the Woodbine Handicapping Project were stellar:  Ten selections and five wins - a whopping 50% with a clear profit of an even $35!  Whooo hooo!

 

Beholder Dominates Grade 1 Hirsch