August 12

Night Time Racing At Woodbine

A BIG Night Of Handicapping

Early this morning I took Kim to the airport as she heads out on her next adventure, a reunion with middle school pals from the Tehran (Iran) American School.  For me, I had handicapping for the upcoming weekend at Saratoga, lunch with a Cypress Bay pal, and then first post for Woodbine was at 6:45 pm.  When the dust settled - or should I say the poly fibers - I had another successful outing at the Toronto track.....feeling more & more confident about the Woodbine Mile adventure in September!  And let's start there with today's journal.....it was reported today that it is VERY likely that two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan will make his long-anticipated return to the races in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile.  I am so excited!  I was hoping this would be the case, and trainer Charlie Lopresti said as much yesterday.  So, on to the racing! 

 

In the opener, a 7 furlong claiming event for a price tag of $8K, Miss Victoria looked like a standout to me.  She had been on a roll with three straight victories here after spending the winter in So Florida and hitting the board in four out of five vs. better.  Her initial start north of the border came at tonight's seven panel distance and she won for a $6K tag as the even money choice.  Three weeks later she scored an emphatic victory, again at this distance, while moving up in class to face this $8K level of runners.  She topped off the trifecta with another decisive score going seven furlongs besting $10K runners.  Last time out her connections tried the turf where she'd failed to hit the board in four previous tries.  As with most tracks it's important to understand the class structure of turf vs. main track racing.  For example at Gulfstream, you can sprint for $10K or less, but the lowest level on the turf is at $15K to $20K.  The same is true at Woodbine, so when you see Miss Victoria finishing well beaten for a $32K tag it wasn't nearly as big a jump as you'd imagine.  Still, she showed speed, on the grass vs. better than tonight's $8K field.  It looked to me like she would be a dominant winner.  But, I was reluctant to go "all in" with a wager considering the typical inconsistency of low level runners.  I discovered about 45 minutes prior to post time that I could watch a live feed from Woodbine on their website, which made the evening much more enjoyable.  As the two hosts previewed the night's races, I checked out Woodbine handicapper Jim Bannon's picks for the night and saw that Miss Victoria was his BEST of the night.  Good enough for me to click the bet up one notch, so I tripled the bet.  After hovering around 8/5 in the early betting, Miss Victoria was pounded late and dropped down to 2/5 as they loaded into the gate.  Fortunately she floated up a little before they started.  She sat just off the early pace, moved 4-wide in hand on the turn and then accelerated home as MUCH the best!  WHOOO HOOO, 1-for-1 on the night!  

 

Like New York racing, the Woodbine track rounds the betting up to the nickel rather than the dime so the payoff was a click higher at $3.10 for a $2 play, and I would cash for nearly $25.  In the preview show for the night I was intrigued in the analysis for race two.  It was an off the turf affair and I had planned to pass the race.  On the screen they listed the picks for all of the handicappers - and for the Toronto races that is over half a dozen - and EVERY one of them picked #2 Obeah Woman to win.  I thought perhaps I'd add the pick.  She was also hammered down to 3/5 at post time and in the end I decided against the play.  I had not liked anyone prior to the race and I still wasn't that confident.  I thought it was a wise move when the second choice opened up in mid-stretch, but Obeah Woman wore her down in the final strides to score.  Lost out on six bucks, whatever.  In the third it had been scheduled for a six furlong sprint on the grass, but again we were now on the main track.  My pick was a WO 40% Club play and it looked like Flashy Margaritta had a decent chance to steal this sprint on the front end.  There were several speed types in the race but trainer Ralph Biomonte has won at the required level over the last two years for this particular ownership group.  I liked that he had won a stakes here in 2014 on the front end, on the main track and at post time he was a juicy 7/1.  None of the analysts gave him a chance, but I thought he was the speed of the race.  He burst out of the gate and was quickly in front.  He was challenged through the turn, but turned that one away and as heads turned for home he was three clear.......I envisioning a $16 payoff or better!  The tepid post-time favorite was rolling from the back but it looked like I had enough left, until the final fifty yards when 'Flashy just ran out of gas.  At best-of-the-rest second......great handicapping, but no reward.  I passed the fourth, a maiden claimer sprint.  In the fifth it was another maiden claiming event, but this time going two turns, nine furlongs on the main.  Benzin Benz was coming off back-to-back solid finishes and was lightly raced.  Two things bothered me - first, the two best efforts on his pp's were on the grass and tonight we were on the main track where (secondly) his speed figures were some 20 points below his turf Beyers.  However sometimes in handicapping, finding the winner is NOT just about who's the best runner, but it's more of "who's the best of THIS group of runners."  Such was the case here where the second choice in the program was an 0-for-14 maiden with a rider that's 1-for-19 on board for a barn that's 5-for-62.  I have to like my chances.  The crowd saw it the same way and Benzin Benz was the favorite, but at a fair 9/5 price (especially fair considering he'd been 8/5 in the program).  He made his move on the turn and seemed to have all the momentum, but as they turned for home he reverted to his old ways of hanging and I thought it was all over.  But in the final 16th it was like a light went on and he surged with a new-found burst of speed and was J-U-S-T up in time to win! 

 

It wasn't so much the price or how much I would cash for - especially with the minimum investment - it was being RIGHT and getting my second win on the card - HORRAY!  The sixth was the night's feature, the Ontario Jockey Club Stakes and for a mid-week, night time card it was a terrific stakes event.  On the rail it looked like former graded stakes winning speedster Essence Hit Man had a great shot to wire the field as the lone speed, but he'd have to fend off a challenge from Speightsong who had run a huge race last time out in narrowly missing in the Achievement Stakes.  He looked to be tracking the speedy Hit Man and get first run on the very likely favorite, 2014 Canadian Sprint Champion Calgary Cat.  And here, in spite of the pace scenario, is where I landed.  He had been my choice in the aforementioned Achievement despite coming off a career-worst effort.  It was just too bad an effort to be believed AND he'd fired three straight bullet works.  He won with a big rally down the middle of the track in a sensational final time (1:08.4) to win for the eighth time here sprinting (14/8-1-0).  AND this improved his record at the distance to five wins from seven starts.  Since that win, Calgary Cat had fired two more bullets and his most recent work was a second-best maintenance move.  I had mixed feelings when with less than ten minutes to post Essence Hit Man was hovering as the even-money favorite and the studio analysts remarked that the local timer had been on record as saying he'd looked every bit as good as he had while running regularly.  But to me, the long layoff - he'd not been seen since running in a Grade 2 event in November - 2013 - was too much to overcome when he'd have to face the late kick of Calgary Cat.  As much as I worried the money on Hit Man indicated he might be more ready that I thought, I was smiling at the prospects of getting 9/5 on my BET of the night.  By post time the crowd had fallen into line with the way I saw the race and Essence Hit Man had floated up to 2/1 while Calgary Cat was 4/5.  Right out of the gate I was concerned because indeed Essence Hit Man was loose on the lead.  And when the opening quarter was a "leisurely" :23 and change I thought uh-oh.  And while the time was slow, he had two runners just off his flank and I thought about what I have heard and read about front-runners - it's not just about how fast you are going, but it is also about if you have any kind of pressure.  So as Calgary Cat sat in fourth just two off the leaders I was thinking that the pressure would combine with the long layoff to make him vulnerable late.  Well, there was no reason to worry.  In spite of coasting into mid-stretch with a clear lead, when Calgary Cat's rider gave him the signal he just inhaled the field and won EASILY. 

 

He paid nearly even money and my prime-time play netted me almost $40 on my third win of the night!  WHOOOO HOOOOO squared :)  I had one more pick, in the seventh where Royal Calvados was a nice 4/1 play in a MSW route.  Near the back from the get-go, eighth.  For the night I finished a superb 3-for-5 with one second - that's 60% winners and 80% in the money my friends - and a profit of over $25 in spite of my three winners being sent off at 1/2, 9/5, and 4/5.  Very please with a great evening of racing!  Tomorrow there is no racing, but I'll be very busy analyzing the Arlington Million card for Saturday, as well as the races from historic Saratoga where I will be in my racing finest, and of course the races from here at Woodbine.  Looking forward to a big adventure!