August 7

A GOOD Day At Woodbine
Day 4

I have been a bit anxious about my Woodbine handicapping since last weekend, the first weekend of the daily handicapping project.  This was because while I did ok overall for the weekend, I was a combined 2-for-16.  I wondered if it was just racing luck; or if it was because I had not been handicapping on a regular basis (even looked at pp's) since June; or maybe I'm not "in tune" with Woodbine racing.  But, I was determined to keep at it - I know that I know what I'm doing!  In the third I supported the 6/5 favorite Show YouOff who was a Woodbine 40% Club play for trainer Nicholas Gonzalez with jockey ER DaSilva.  He was away slowly and made little progress, 7th.  In th e4th I scored a nice win.  It was a turf route for claimers and I singled out Chedigton.  Over this course she was 6/3-1-0 with ll three of those wins earning a Beyer of 80 or better - clearly the best figures in the field.  She'd not seen a tag since September 2013 when she won here in 3-lifetime company.  The drop from allowance races, I thought, would result in a peak effort.  She went right to the front and was LONG GONE!  The best part was she was a solid 3/1 at post time and I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for well over $40!  I missed in the 5th with another WO 40% Club play when Quality Assurance was 6th at 4/1.  And I missed again in the 7th when Mystic Delight was a gi-normous 16/1 at post time as another WO 40% Club play.  I had a pounding heart as she was sitting pretty in third to the top of the lane.  But instead of firing home, she faded to a well beaten 9th.  The last bet of the day was my "BEST" of the day.  In the 8th, a nw2x AOC race going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track, Melmich looked every bit of the morning line 6/5 odds.  Her last two numbers were better than 95 of the 98 Beyers earned by the rest of the field, lifetime.  And if you looked at common foes, the two who had earned those three figs were much slower than Melmich.  She won four of her last six and was going for a barn that was winning at a big 31% clip overall.  The crowd saw he same things I saw and bet her down to 2/5 at post time.  She ran true to her odds and form as she cruised easily to the front in mid-stretch and drew off without being asked.  My "prime-time" bet returned nearly $30 and so I closed the day with a 40% winning percentage:  2-for-5 for a clear profit!