August 15

Arlington Million Day

After a strong Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday I had high hopes for today's races in spite of missing out on a chance to be at Saratoga.  But instead it was very much like last weekend - a lot of disappointments.  From my thirty-nine selections I only cashed on seven winners.  Even lower pct. than last week.  The only thing "better" this week was that I was second or third on a dozen selections, so I was much more "in the running" thinking I might win than last week.  So, like last week let's focus on the good......

 

The first win of the day was in the first stakes race of the day, and from Woodbine as a part of my Woodbine Handicapping Project.  Ruth Less Blue had debuted in a stakes race!  And had run a good second in spite of being forced five-wide into the stretch.  Came back to dominate maidens.  Her two Beyer figures (69, 71) were the best two figures in the field.  She looked much the best, and if those paired figures indicated a move forward today, it was bad news for the rest of the field.  My second choice was a WO 40% Club play in Conquest Daddyo.  Ruth Less Blue went right to the front and was never threatened.  The only moment of "concern" was when she suddenly ducked in towards the rail in mid-stretch before straightening out as Conquest Daddyo made up ground to close the gap late.  Wishing she'd been better than 4/5, but I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30. 

 

On the Arlington Million card I had TWO stakes wins from the four big graded events, and both were nice prices.  In the Grade 3 American St. Leger Lucky Speed was my choice.  What drew me t him was that he was (a) a European import with a Group 1 win on his resume (b) he'd been shipped to North America to run in the Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woobine earlier in the summer, so he had had time to become acclimated.  IF the connections were using that as a prep for the bigger money today, I was in good shape.  He was listed at 5/1 and I was hopeful of a price.  He sat in third to the far turn, when my second choice, another Euro import at an even better price - Panama Hat - made his move to the front.  But Lucky Speed began moving at the same time and the two of them matched strides from the furlong marker to inside the 16th pole.  And then Lucky Speed edged clear, I think because of having a race under his belt.  The price was a generous 3/1, so I cashed for $40! 

 

The other Arlington winner came in the Grade 1 Secretariat for 3-year-olds.  I really liked Aidan O'Brien's Highland Reel.  He was a multiple Group 2 winner in Europe and had a close second in Group 1 company.  On any year that would make him a top choice here in the Secretariat against the North American stars.  But this year in particular, the best we had to offer was a runner who'd won two in a row at 9/1 and 10/1.  As they were walking up to the gate it started to rain; then it started to rain hard; and by the time they were hitting the backstretch it was POURING.  But Highland Reel had burst out of the gate and was uncontested on the lead.  When the first fraction of :24.2 was up I knew I was sitting good, unless the ground had softened.  The half mile was in a slow :50.0, I knew there would be no catching him.  Still, as they spun out of the turn, the field seemed to be getting to him.  But the rider had not even asked yet and when he did he EXPLODED away from the field to cruise by multiple lengths......AND SET A COURSE RECORD!  He paid a nice $6.80 and I'd gone "prime time" on him so I was cashing for nearly $70!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! 

 

Less than a half hour later I cashed on my fourth stakes winner of the day.  The feature at Monmouth was a five-furlong turf sprint, the Blue Sparkler.  Twice I've seen Lady Shipman run, and she is one fast & talented turf sprinter.  In Monmouth's Klassy Briefcase Stakes in July Lady Shipman had won, BUT she had not been the favorite.  That had been Joya Real.  I looked up Lady Shipman's pp's and going into that feature she'd won six of seven, including the two I'd seen.  Why was she NOT the favorite?  She won that day and has since won a stakes at Saratoga.  So to me, the fact that Joya Real had been favored over Lady Shipman weighed a lot.  It was also a plus that Joya Real's name was scattered through most of the rest of the field, having beaten them already.  As they ran through the turn she was mid-pack but beginning to move while getting an inside run.  Could she get out?  As they turned for home, STILL nowhere to run!  Finally a seam, but was it too late?  Watch the video highlight below, man what a burst!  Ran right by them and I had another winner! 

 

The only thing I'll add about the rest of the day is that I can take some consolation that had Tonasah won the Grade 2 Adirondack, Professor Palmer won the Delaware feature, and Euro Charline won the Grade 1 Beverly D I'd have an ENTIRELY different spin on today's day at the races.  As you can see below, they were ALL in front turning for home and the combined lost winnings mere more than $225.  Ouch - I don't care how you cut it, that much money in just three near-misses has to hurt.  One more day of racing - Woodbine's Sunday card tomorrow with two big stakes events!

 

August 15: Arlington Million Day

Stakes Wins