August 26

Woodbine Handicapping Project

Day 15

Tonight was a good night at the races thanks to the my "best" of the day which came in the night's finale with a post time of nearly 10:30 pm.  With Wednesday comes the evening racing program at Woodbine and on the eight-race card I had five selections.  I was anxious to start a new week of racing after having bookended last week with 0-for handicapping results.  This afternoon I met Jim Anderson, wife of my buddy from Cypress Bay Stephanie, for lunch.  Stephanie and Jim had become track pals several years ago when I'd meet them at Gulfstream.  And then a few years ago they joined our Florida Derby group.  They so enjoy the event that they have now become Florida Derby seat holders on their own right.  So last spring I was visiting Cypress Bay and ran into Stephanie.  I was telling her how much I enjoy when Jim and I meet at the races and she mentioned to me that he would probably be interested in one of my racing adventures, that I should talk to him.  So this past spring on Florida Derby Day I approached him and told him that I was going to start a Woodbine Handicapping Project this summer with the highlight being a trip to Toronto for Woodbine Mile Day in September - would he be interested in going?  He said he would be so I sent him all my trip details.  About two weeks ago he finalized his plans to join me (we are on the same flight and obviously staying together at the hotel.  So today we met for lunch to talk about the trip, handicapping in general and just catch up.  I told him about how I'd had a very good day last Saturday but was still inconsistent at Woodbine.....but that I'd be ready for our big day!  So this evening Kim and I watched TV until ten o'clock and as she headed to bed it was time for me to check the racing results, knowing full well that the races still had another half hour to go.  In the opener, a nw3x allowance test on the turf I thought it came down to Winning Rhythm or Overheard.  The latter had the better figures through her pp's but she was inconsistent in earning them.  Conversely, Winning Rhythm had earned consistent 87 numbers in three of her last four, had a sharp bullet work and was exiting a key stakes race.  As they turned for home 'Rhythm came up the rail while Overheard moved in the clear three wide.  She had the jump on me but I had the momentum.  Ran out of time and had to settle for second at 2/1 while the winner was the post-time favorite at 3/5.  In the second I liked Sky Marshal in this no-conditioned allowance race for two-year-olds.  I thought it was very interesting that the LONE runner in the field with a win was Feelin' Groovy, but he'd never been on the turf and the barn was 1-for-21 with such types.  My pick had debuted last time out in a six furlong turf dash and broked behind the field from the far outside.  He made a good late run to finish less that two lengths off the winner despite being 4-wide.  I thought the move inside an the stretch to seven furlongs was ideal.  Instead of stalking and utilizing a strong late run he broke sharply from the rail and took it to the field.  As they hit the far turn the rider seemed confident, but he'd been hounded every step of the way.  Through the turn he maintained his narrow advantage and as the field swung for home the stalkers and closers made their move.  But Sky Marshal had PLENTY left and he burst away from the field to win by daylight under a confident hand ride! 

 

WHOOOO HOOOO!  And with my double investment I cashed for nearly $20.  I didn't like anyone in the third, fourth, or fifth.  In the sixth, a nw3L event I liked the entry, but most especially liked the 1-Leading Wild who was a Woodbine 40% Club play for Norman McKnight with jockey Luis Contreras.  With both halves of the entry going (the other half was certain to be the front runner, and would set the table for my choice) the crowd pounded them down to a prohibitive 1/5 at post time.  1a-Dark and Intense set the pace and gave way as Leading Wild split horses.  But the longshot who had pressed 'Dark into the lane had the jump and wouldn't give in despite a solid finish from the favorite - second, again.  As this replay finished it was post time for the 7th a nw3L event with an optional claiming price.  Drink In My Hand was my pick as another Woodbine 40% Club play.  Trainer Josie Carroll is a "club member" when her horses make the third start off the layoff which was the case here.  'Drink was bet down to even-money favoritism and as they spun out of the turn he accelerated between horses and was quickly clear by two!  But my second choice, Goodoldhockeygame - who was exiting seven consecutive stakes events - was gaining momentum and collared him at the 16th pole. They dueled to the wire, but in the final 100 yards I was outfinished to be second for the THIRD time on the night.  Grrrrrr. 

 

So, the night's bottom line would be determined by the finale where it was my "best" with a triple investment on Executive Five.  I was surprised that he was NOT the favorite, but delighted to be getting a fair price - as high as 3/1 as they left the gate initially.  While it was somewhat worrisome that 'Five had a career mark of 47/6-13-5, I liked the fact that today he was starting for a new barn.  It was a plus that he was dropping from $20K and $30K races into tonight's $12.5K spot and got the top rider of the meet, Eurico DaSilva.  Finally, I thought it interesting that Executive Five was 5-for-15 at tonight's five furlongs while a mere 1-for-32 at all other distances.  This was way more evidence on the plus side than the record pulled down his chances.  The 6/5 favorite - who both Woodbine analysts liked because he appeared to be the lone speed - went right to the front while DaSilva had my pick stalking three wide.  Into the lane the favorite looked to be in control but at the furlong marker Executive Five began whittling away and inside the final 100 yards they were nearly even.  They hit the wire.....PHOTO FINISH!  As you can see in the official photo above I was J-U-S-T up in time to win.  I thought from the live running and the slo-mo replays that I'd won, but I wasn't convinced.  The best part was Executive Five was better than 2/1 at post time so I collected nearly $50 with the win.  That put me at an excellent 40% for the evening's races with a profit of nearly $20.  A great way to start off Travers Week where American Pharoah will make his next start!