August 19-23

The Woodbine Handicapping Project - Week 4

Days 11 - 14

The best part of the week was Saturday, the big day of racing as I had an excellent day at the races - virtually.  The rest of the week, not so much, as I was a combined 1-for-16 on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday with six seconds and three thirds.....arrrrgh!

So let's just focus on Saturday's races......

 

Saturday August 22Pacific Class Day Highlights

 

The day, from start to finish, just worked out great for me.  Before racing even started I looked at today's races a week ago and thought, "this could not have worked out better!"  Why?  Because on this Saturday Kim and I had tickets to Cirque du Soleil at the BB & T Center with a 4 pm show time.  So, obviously, I could not spend the afternoon at the races.  But the big racing for today was set to take place at Del Mar which didn't have a first race post time until 5 pm local time.  I had wondered how I would handle the day when the "big" and featured races were all going to be run after I would have left.  So this worked out great!  The opener was the first of seven selections at Woodbine.  The only good news about the first two days of the week was that the lone winner so far had paid $12 on Friday.  I am looking to have some good days and build some momentum for the big Woodbine Mile Day trip.  In the opener, a Maiden claiming event for juveniles, trainer Sam DePasquale is a Woodbine 40% Club member with runners in either maiden claiming events, or first off the claim.  The latter obviously applies here.  The hit rate for those has been 50% over the last two seasons.  Play With Passion, my selection had made his debut in a STAKES race, so today he was taking a huge class drop.  AND, the runner-up from that race, Ruth Less Blue had come back to score impressively (as my top choice).  As they hit the top of the stretch Play With Passion moved four wide and had dead aim on the game front-runner.....PHOTO finish!  But even the announcer called him the winner, though as you can see by the photo it was a lot closer than you might have expected!  In the second fromWoodbine Miss Metropolitan made an early move at 9/2, but than ran evenly through the stretch to finish fourth.  The second at Saratoga saw Cozy Kitten make a move up the rail in tight quarters, but couldn't get there in time, third. 

 

The fourth at Monmouth saw Durant sent away at 4/1, but after making a bold move three-wide, flatten out to finish sixth.  At Woodbine in ther 4th Charming Delilah was 5/2 and had dead aim on my second choice, Two To Tango when in mid-stretch she veered in and back out.  I figure that added at least a length if not two to the distance she was running which was significant because she finished second in a desperate photo - see at right (she's #2).  The 4th at Saratoga I liked Blame Dixie for Todd Pletcher on the turf.  Dueled to the stretch at 3/1 and I thought she'd break away......stopped n a dime and was 8th under the wire.  I did not download the past performances from Gulfstream.  I knew I'd be playing about half my races - online - before our outing to the show, and then watch the rest on replays.  But when I'd read this morning's paper I saw that Flutterby was listed as the 6/5 favorite in the paper for the featured Gold Mover Stakes.  That's a short price for a morning line at Gulfstream, so I went online.  EVERYONE picked him to win.  Then I read Ron Nicoletti's analysis of the race.  Flutterby was exiting a second behind multiple graded stakes winner Merry Meadow in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney Stakes to run in this $60K listed sprint.  AND he'd been working very well according to Nicoletti.  All this seemed more than enough evidence for me.  I added him to my list of selections.  He dueled to midway on the stretch and then took off under a hand ride as MUCH the best! 

 

He paid a fair $3.20, considering the relative talent of the field.  I had tripled the investment so I cashed for nearly $25.  Once the race was official it was time to head out to the show.  We had front row seats and it was a GREAT performance!  Afterwards we went to Outback for dinner - a great "date." 

 

I got online as soon as we got home to begin catching up on the races.  Won right away in the sixth with Exclusive Strike on the Jersey Shore turf who crushed the field at 7/5.  I had doubled the bet on this guy so again I would collect nearly $25 into my TwinSpires account.  In the 6th at Woodbine Cristina's Halo was a huge 11/1 and rallied for a good 4th.  I was second with my "best" at Saratoga where Life Imitates Art, a 2yo maiden, was on the turf for Chad Brown.  He had been carried out five wide in his debut and looked like a standout in here.  The crowd agreed and sent him off at 4/5.  He was in complete control of the race, clear into the stretch.....caught in the final strides.  Mist was my pick in the 7th at Woodbine, stalked the leaders at 9/5, but was outfinished, fourth.  Missed again at Woodbine when Mississippi Delta was 9th, ouch, at 2/1 in the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen.  My second choice Don't Leave Me was ultra-impressive in victory.  This seems to happen ALOT at Woodbine where my "other" pick wins :(  At Monmouth Irish You Well was clearly the class of this allowance test AND had a 4/3-0-0 record on the track.  Sent off at 7/5 with top rider Paco Lopez on board he rallied from mid-pack with dead aim on the longshot leader, couldn't catch him, second.  WOW.  FINALLY a winner, and at Woodbine - Horray - at last.  Scotty's Model was the second Woodbine 40% Club play of the day for trainer Norman McKnight.  He wins at  43% rate when Luis Contreras rides.  Right to the front, the 5yo never was threatened. 

 

AND paid a generous $7.80, so I cashed for nearly $40.  The eleventh at Monmouth was their feature, the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks.  As I looked over the field  did NOT like the favorite, Todd Pletcher's Eskenformoney.  I'd seen her run and win at Gulfstream against a REALLY weak maiden field.  Since then in stakes races I'd been against her and she'd yet to win.  But finding the winner wasn't easy.  I settled on Delightful Joy who was making her stakes debut.  I thought it showed confidence that Chad Brown would ship to Monmouth to run in a stakes when there were plenty of allowance races available at Saratoga.  That top rider Paco Lopez took the mount was an added plus.  She made a big move into the lane and sprinted clear late to win going away. 

 

The price was a nice $8.20, but I'd only invested the minimum so I only cashed for a little over $20.  The last race I watched in this "set" of races was the Grade 1 Alabama from Saratoga.  I liked Kentucky Oaks heroine Lovely Maria.  She pressed the leader to the stretch, but faded to be sixth at 3/1.  The winner was ridden by top jockey Javier Castellano at 6/1.  Wow.  I took a break to watch some TV programs with Kim while the Del Mar races got underway.  A little after 9 pm Kim had had enough television so I returned to the race replays.  In the 3rd at Del Mar I liked Another House in a Maiden Special turf event with Gary Stevens riding for Tom Proctor & Glen Hill Farms.  A solid second at 7/2.  Then it was time for my last three selections, the three graded stakes on the card.  The first was the Grade 1 Pat O'Brien.  There was next to no speed in here so I went with Appealing Tale.  But, instead of being loose on the lead he was hounded into the stretch where he separated from the field briefly but was quickly collared......I thought for sure he'd give in, but he battled back bravely and even edged clear again late!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

 

Paid fair 6/5 odds in a four horse field on my double investment, so I collected over $20.  In the 8th, the 11-furlong Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap on the turf I thought the race was wide open and I did NOT like the favorite.  I took a shot with 5/2 third choice Big John B who was a perfect 2-for-2 over the course.  AND he'd won this last year after winning back-to-back prep races.  Coming into today he'd won back-to-back races off the shelf.  As they hit the far turn he was dead last behind a slow pace and I thought my chances of winning were slim and none.  But then he made a HUGE move and blew by the field to win! 

 

TWO STAKES WINS IN A ROW!  The day would come down to how my BET of the DAY would run.  When Kim and I were in Arkansas, on Apple Blossom Day I had be $50 to win on Beholder who was making her first start of the year.  She romped without ever being asked.  She came back in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes and didn't take a deep breath just cantering home by daylight.  In the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch last time out she looked to be facing a deeper field - nope.  Galloped around the track without being asked to run.  So today, conservative trainer Richard Mandella had entered her against the boys in the Grade 1, $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic.  Not only facing boys for the first time, but also trying a mile and a quarter for the first time....AND trying to be the first filly or mare EVER to win this prestigious signature race!  She sat the perfect trip in third, in the "garden spot" to the far turn and then without Stevens asking she blew by the leaders - in an instant he went from third to three in front.  The boys made their move and closed to within two heading for home but Stevens simply shook the reins and the epic demolition was on.  You have to watch the video replay above to truly appreciate how devastatingly easy the win was. 

 

I probably would have bet more if I'd been betting live, but I was in for $30 to win.  The crowd let her go at 2/1 odds, just insane.  I cashed for $90 to top a 40% winning day with a profit of nearly $50!